Westminster Politics

Marcus Fysh described these Plan B restrictions as akin to Nazi Germany!

James O'Brien had a caller on today's show that should well and truly kick any of that bullshit in to the bleachers where it belongs...

 
Just that there was a lot of talk that Boris would go. Certainly few on here thought that this could bring him down. The man is bulletproof —. nothing will bring him down.

Johnson is bulletproof purely because he's most useful to the Tories that way and the second that changes he'll be gone. The shift we've seen recently is that the nature of his usefulness has changed. When he was most useful as a figurehead who allowed the Tories to cut through with the non-Tory electorate, the right-wing media basically acted as his personal human shield/strike team to protect him from any and all critique. Now, he's most useful as a sacrificial lamb to allow the Tory movement (politicians, media figures and donors) as a whole to weather the last couple of years of scandal they've all overseen.

What's happening now is a game of PR Buckaroo where the Tories and their media outriders are loading as much of the Tories' collective shit as possible on Johnson personally but not quite applying the pressure which would topple him. At the moment where it looks like it's all going to fly off and cover them all in shite (i.e - when it starts to reflect badly on them for having such a useless amoral cnut in charge) they'll boot him, allowing his replacement to emerge looking clean as a whistle and be lauded as if they've overthrown an evil king (by the same papers who have portrayed Johnson up as a living god for the last few years).

In essence it's the same move they pulled when Johnson replaced May, or when they built up Cummings as being a malevolent power behind the throne before making a massive deal of Johnson sacking him. Hancock's recent firing was basically a dry-run for what is happening to Johnson now. The reason the electorate aren't really sick of the Tories yet despite all the shit they've done in the last 11 years is because they've gotten incredibly good at putting party first when it matters (aside from on Brexit) and (with help from a friendly media) at spinning internal party machinations as if they're fundamental changes of national direction akin to a change in governing party. When they leave one of these artificial eras they've concocted, they use a high-profile sacking/resignation to draw a line past which the baggage they accumulated during that time doesn't pass, regardless of how many of the personnel and ideas do.
 
And this is the actual story and by far the biggest scandal.
This is more like it mouse.
I'm sick and tired of seeing rabid news coverage of alleged parties, zoom quizzes, hallway clinches etc etc etc.
For years now I've been banging on that we need a strong, united opposition who challenge the government on political issues.
We've had one of the largest humanitarian issues of our lifetime with the Channel immigration issue and I've barely heard of a cohesive plan by Labour.
These ARE the types of issues that can and should be pressed on. Not a fecking zoom quiz
 
This is more like it mouse.
I'm sick and tired of seeing rabid news coverage of alleged parties, zoom quizzes, hallway clinches etc etc etc.
For years now I've been banging on that we need a strong, united opposition who challenge the government on political issues.
We've had one of the largest humanitarian issues of our lifetime with the Channel immigration issue and I've barely heard of a cohesive plan by Labour.
These ARE the types of issues that can and should be pressed on. Not a fecking zoom quiz

Immigration is a political hand grenade. It blew up nearly 50 years of UK integration with the rest of Europe. You don’t seriously expect Labour (while in opposition) to appear ‘soft’ on that line? They’ll get slaughtered. If they ever get back in power, then maybe we can have a more grown up, humane discussion on that issue but, until then, Labour has to deal with the electorate as it is, not as it would wish it to be.
 
Johnson is bulletproof purely because he's most useful to the Tories that way and the second that changes he'll be gone. The shift we've seen recently is that the nature of his usefulness has changed. When he was most useful as a figurehead who allowed the Tories to cut through with the non-Tory electorate, the right-wing media basically acted as his personal human shield/strike team to protect him from any and all critique. Now, he's most useful as a sacrificial lamb to allow the Tory movement (politicians, media figures and donors) as a whole to weather the last couple of years of scandal they've all overseen.

What's happening now is a game of PR Buckaroo where the Tories and their media outriders are loading as much of the Tories' collective shit as possible on Johnson personally but not quite applying the pressure which would topple him. At the moment where it looks like it's all going to fly off and cover them all in shite (i.e - when it starts to reflect badly on them for having such a useless amoral cnut in charge) they'll boot him, allowing his replacement to emerge looking clean as a whistle and be lauded as if they've overthrown an evil king (by the same papers who have portrayed Johnson up as a living god for the last few years).

In essence it's the same move they pulled when Johnson replaced May, or when they built up Cummings as being a malevolent power behind the throne before making a massive deal of Johnson sacking him. Hancock's recent firing was basically a dry-run for what is happening to Johnson now. The reason the electorate aren't really sick of the Tories yet despite all the shit they've done in the last 11 years is because they've gotten incredibly good at putting party first when it matters (aside from on Brexit) and (with help from a friendly media) at spinning internal party machinations as if they're fundamental changes of national direction akin to a change in governing party. When they leave one of these artificial eras they've concocted, they use a high-profile sacking/resignation to draw a line past which the baggage they accumulated during that time doesn't pass, regardless of how many of the personnel and ideas do.

I think this is spot on.

This is why I am hoping Boris manages to remain "useful" enough for the party for him to stay on until the next election. That, I feel, is Labour's best strategy with so many ready-made attack lines from these last few years. A "new-look" Tory party with Sunak at the helm would be harder to topple as he will be afforded a lot of the same favourable media coverage and with little of baggage sticking to him.
 
Johnson is bulletproof purely because he's most useful to the Tories that way and the second that changes he'll be gone. The shift we've seen recently is that the nature of his usefulness has changed. When he was most useful as a figurehead who allowed the Tories to cut through with the non-Tory electorate, the right-wing media basically acted as his personal human shield/strike team to protect him from any and all critique. Now, he's most useful as a sacrificial lamb to allow the Tory movement (politicians, media figures and donors) as a whole to weather the last couple of years of scandal they've all overseen.

What's happening now is a game of PR Buckaroo where the Tories and their media outriders are loading as much of the Tories' collective shit as possible on Johnson personally but not quite applying the pressure which would topple him. At the moment where it looks like it's all going to fly off and cover them all in shite (i.e - when it starts to reflect badly on them for having such a useless amoral cnut in charge) they'll boot him, allowing his replacement to emerge looking clean as a whistle and be lauded as if they've overthrown an evil king (by the same papers who have portrayed Johnson up as a living god for the last few years).

In essence it's the same move they pulled when Johnson replaced May, or when they built up Cummings as being a malevolent power behind the throne before making a massive deal of Johnson sacking him. Hancock's recent firing was basically a dry-run for what is happening to Johnson now. The reason the electorate aren't really sick of the Tories yet despite all the shit they've done in the last 11 years is because they've gotten incredibly good at putting party first when it matters (aside from on Brexit) and (with help from a friendly media) at spinning internal party machinations as if they're fundamental changes of national direction akin to a change in governing party. When they leave one of these artificial eras they've concocted, they use a high-profile sacking/resignation to draw a line past which the baggage they accumulated during that time doesn't pass, regardless of how many of the personnel and ideas do.
Thanks for that. Good summation.
 
I think this is spot on.

This is why I am hoping Boris manages to remain "useful" enough for the party for him to stay on until the next election. That, I feel, is Labour's best strategy with so many ready-made attack lines from these last few years. A "new-look" Tory party with Sunak at the helm would be harder to topple as he will be afforded a lot of the same favourable media coverage and with little of baggage sticking to him.

Boris won't survive to the next election. Better to get Sunak or whatever in now so they can show their inner cnut well in advance of the election.
 
I think this is spot on.

This is why I am hoping Boris manages to remain "useful" enough for the party for him to stay on until the next election. That, I feel, is Labour's best strategy with so many ready-made attack lines from these last few years. A "new-look" Tory party with Sunak at the helm would be harder to topple as he will be afforded a lot of the same favourable media coverage and with little of baggage sticking to him.

I'm not sure the tories get to use that trick forever. It's pretty widely accepted that the last 3 tory PMs have been crap.

Even the sleepy masses start to notice such obvious patterns eventually.
 
So 98 Tory MPs voted against the government tonight. Johnson is toast if the North Shropshire by-election goes to the wire.

I welcome the prospect of Liz Truss stepping into the shoes of Pitt, Gladstone and Churchill. Kind of like Mangnall, Busby, Fergie and then Ole.
 
An actual bullet would.
You're not allowed to say that.... I'm reporting you to immigration, "Sparky". Sounds Welsh...

I think this is spot on.

This is why I am hoping Boris manages to remain "useful" enough for the party for him to stay on until the next election. That, I feel, is Labour's best strategy with so many ready-made attack lines from these last few years. A "new-look" Tory party with Sunak at the helm would be harder to topple as he will be afforded a lot of the same favourable media coverage and with little of baggage sticking to him.
The biggest problem with Sunak is he can barely put a sentence together without coming across as unsure of himself. And he would need a crate put behind the podium for him to hop on.

So 98 Tory MPs voted against the government tonight. Johnson is toast if the North Shropshire by-election goes to the wire.

I welcome the prospect of Liz Truss stepping into the shoes of Pitt, Gladstone and Churchill. Kind of like Mangnall, Busby, Fergie and then Ole.
I wonder what their strategy will be this time. With May it was "strong and stable", with Boris "he doesn't lie". I'm assuming that with Truss it'll be "she's not a cnut" since they'll want to continue the World of Opposites that they seek to inhabit.
 
Think this could be the week Boris falls on his sword

Likely big rebellion on the covid bill - probably only pass because of Labour support and I suspect several people with government roles (PPS, Junior ministers and possibly even all the way up to cabinet) to vote against and thus resign.

Then a probable by-election defeat to the Libs on Thursday

At that point I fully expect enough letters to be with the 1922 committee to trigger a vote of confidence ... and I think Boris will walk rather than face the vote

At that point I think Boris will decide that because of the massive success of the booster roll out, the fact that he did what he was elected to and got Brexit done combined with how he put his personal life and health second to stewarding Britain through a global pandemic means its now time for him to step back from office to enjoy time with his Wife and young Children. (or at least some spin like that for the press release)

The only real issue then is during a global pandemic do the Conservatives agree on a next leader and do a smooth and quick transition... personally I cant see Sunak or Gove stepping aside for each other so potentially we end up with a crowded internal process as Sunak, Gove, Truss, Patel, Hunt, Javid - possibly even Mogg chuck their hat in the ring

If that happens then I guess Boris hangs around for a few weeks as a lame duck PM whilst they fight it out?

Very likely hes resigned by Xms though I think?
Would be nice.

No doubt the Tories are preparing to pin the blame for everything on Boris then push him off.

Will we all fall for "the King is dead, long live the king" yet again?
 
You're not allowed to say that.... I'm reporting you to immigration, "Sparky". Sounds Welsh...


The biggest problem with Sunak is he can barely put a sentence together without coming across as unsure of himself. And he would need a crate put behind the podium for him to hop on.


I wonder what their strategy will be this time. With May it was "strong and stable", with Boris "he doesn't lie". I'm assuming that with Truss it'll be "she's not a cnut" since they'll want to continue the World of Opposites that they seek to inhabit.
:lol:
 
You're not allowed to say that.... I'm reporting you to immigration, "Sparky". Sounds Welsh...


The biggest problem with Sunak is he can barely put a sentence together without coming across as unsure of himself. And he would need a crate put behind the podium for him to hop on.


I wonder what their strategy will be this time. With May it was "strong and stable", with Boris "he doesn't lie". I'm assuming that with Truss it'll be "she's not a cnut" since they'll want to continue the World of Opposites that they seek to inhabit.

That would be the most honest description (I’d go for “not a stupid cnut”) but I imagine they will pitch her as “common sense”, “silent majority” and, to contrast with Bozo, “sober” and “good family values” (although as to the latter I have no idea as to her personal life - for all I know Liz might like being trussed up like the Christmas turkey)..
 
Is that Shaun Bailey? Tw@.

Yep, posted this around the same time too

Tier 4 is tough on every Londoner. My family has had to cancel plans and I’m sure yours has too. It’s also tough on the businesses that have had to close yet again. I’ll be doing what I can to secure more support for London’s businesses and help them through this difficult time.

What a utter wanker
 
Shaun Bailey is a thundercnut but he somehow has more integrity than the Prime Minister.
 
19 = 55.2%
17 = 49.8%
15 = 44.8%
10 = 59.1%
05 = 57.2%
01 = 50%
97 - 47.5%

so I think no...but equally no guarantee the libs side with the conservatives in a election - especially after the coalition with the conservatives worked out so badly for them

also voting under PR would likely be different and most probably within a cycle or 2 conservative and labour have split into smaller parties anyway

Agreed. A lot of people fail to grasp the simple concept that Labour and the Tories would quickly split (which would 100% be a good thing for British politics) under PR, most likely Labour first. All major parties are forced to operate as coalitions due to the ridiculous FPTP system, with their separate divisions like flatmates who hate each other, but continue to live together as they cannot afford to pay the rent on their own.

Labour are definitely at least 3 distinct parties in 1, with the left, soft left and centre left divisions. Jeremy Corbyn and Tony Blair, John McDonnell and Peter Mandelson or Rebecca Long-Bailey and Rachel Reeves, being in the same party as each other is utterly farcical. Their left and centre left divisions probably hate each other more than either of them hate the Tories.

The Tory tent is narrower than Labour's tent, and narrower than it used to be after a lot of the 'one nation' types stood down ahead of the 2019 election and the division over Europe that plagued the party for a long time was resolved. But they are still at least 2 parties in 1, and the likes of Jeremy Hunt and Tobias Ellwood simply shouldn't be in the same party as the likes of Mark Francois and Christopher Chope.

Even regarding the Lib Dems, Charles Kennedy (RIP) and Nick Clegg, who between them led the party into 4 consecutive general elections, being in the same party as each other was ridiculous.

The SNP are a coalition of independence supporters, who have widely different views on domestic politics. If they achieved their dream of an independent Scotland, they'd quickly split and go their separate ways as well. I think many people associated with the party know that.
 
I think we broadly agree there is some impact, I'm just saying I don't think it would be crucial.

Britain has a catholic prime minister, going by the baptising of his children anyway, a muslim mayor of london, a hindu chancellor, and not long ago a jewish chancellor and jewish leader of the opposition. In terms of religion there's probably more to be positive about than not, at the moment at least. Personally I'm more against upper class public school knobs than anyone else, but it doesn't stop them getting in.

Ah I didn't know that Johnson had gone back to Catholicism.

Apologies, I think my post was probably seen as overly critical. I agree that there's far more to be positive about at the moment than negative in terms of racial and religious inclusion, though it can seem at times as if that isn't the case.

Probably the bigger problem would be with the Tory members as opposed to the population at large.
 
A lot of people fail to grasp the simple concept that Labour and the Tories would quickly split

That has been the 'wet dream' of all PR supporters for years... but I suspect its the prospect of 'being in power' that is what keeps both parties true to the FPTP.
Tories by and large are closer together, in their ideology, all though nearly all Conservative PM's in the end get 'knifed from behind' by assassins from within their own ranks, no reason to suppose that when Boris has served his purpose that will also be his fate as well.
Labour is more fractured ideologically, and when they get into a useful 'power-play' position its usually a deal between England and Scotland (Blair and Brown) that keeps them there. Labour is not good at getting rid of its un-electable leaders, prior to GE e.g. Foot and Corbyn are the best examples of the party failing to face reality and of course Labour now has lost Scotland to the SNP and until it gets it back is very unlikely to return 'to power' in Westminster.

PR is a great idea, in principle, but didn't the great British public give it the thumbs down when there was a national vote on this, under the Tory-Lib/Dem government?
 
That has been the 'wet dream' of all PR supporters for years... but I suspect its the prospect of 'being in power' that is what keeps both parties true to the FPTP.
Tories by and large are closer together, in their ideology, all though nearly all Conservative PM's in the end get 'knifed from behind' by assassins from within their own ranks, no reason to suppose that when Boris has served his purpose that will also be his fate as well.
Labour is more fractured ideologically, and when they get into a useful 'power-play' position its usually a deal between England and Scotland (Blair and Brown) that keeps them there. Labour is not good at getting rid of its un-electable leaders, prior to GE e.g. Foot and Corbyn are the best examples of the party failing to face reality and of course Labour now has lost Scotland to the SNP and until it gets it back is very unlikely to return 'to power' in Westminster.

PR is a great idea, in principle, but didn't the great British public give it the thumbs down when there was a national vote on this, under the Tory-Lib/Dem government?

Without ‘winner takes all’ FPTP voting which promotes a 2 party system, there would be no need to for Labour or the Tories to operate as wide-coalitions, so I think it’s pretty clear they’d split. They are full of people with very little common with each other, and are only composed as they are due to the voting system.

Many ‘moderate’ Tories despise the likes of Christopher Chope, Mark Francois etc. No need to share the same party with them under PR. And the left-wing and centrist Labour MPs who bitterly battle it out with each on a weekly basis, would have the perfect opportunity to finally go their separate ways.

And there was no national vote on PR. The joke of a referendum in 2011 was on AV, which is not even a proportional voting system. So PR has never been rejected by the British public.
 
Without ‘winner takes all’ FPTP voting which promotes a 2 party system, there would be no need to for Labour or the Tories to operate as wide-coalitions, so I think it’s pretty clear they’d split. They are full of people with very little common with each other, and are only composed as they are due to the voting system.

Many ‘moderate’ Tories despise the likes of Christopher Chope, Mark Francois etc. No need to share the same party with them under PR. And the left-wing and centrist Labour MPs who bitterly battle it out with each on a weekly basis, would have the perfect opportunity to finally go their separate ways.

And there was no national vote on PR. The joke of a referendum in 2011 was on AV, which is not even a proportional voting system. So PR has never been rejected by the British public.

Sorry I wasn't disagreeing with the perception of the Tories and Labour splitting, for the reasons you've given, but 'Turkeys don't vote for Christmas' and I cannot see any government elected under FPTP offering the public a referendum on PR, especially after the experience with Brexit, so I don't see how PR will come about?
Your right about the AV referendum, it was set up to fail and guess what...it did!
 
Sorry I wasn't disagreeing with the perception of the Tories and Labour splitting, for the reasons you've given, but 'Turkeys don't vote for Christmas' and I cannot see any government elected under FPTP offering the public a referendum on PR, especially after the experience with Brexit, so I don't see how PR will come about?
Your right about the AV referendum, it was set up to fail and guess what...it did!

That AV referendum was a big fail by Clegg and the Lib Dems. Also IIRC, a lot of people who could be bothered to vote (it was a low turnout) wanted to give Clegg a kicking. It’s like how I’m still adamant that quite a few people who voted Leave in 2016, only did so as they wanted to give Cameron a kicking.

The only possible route to PR I can see is if Labour are the largest party and need other parties to prop them up and get their Queen’s speech through. Then the Lib Dems (and Greens if they can exert some influence), should insist on electoral reform in exchange for supporting Labour. I think quite a few Labour MPs, particularly younger ones, support PR, while it tends to be the older ones who prefer FPTP. The ability for the left and centrists to finally separate should be seen as appealing IMO.
 
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FPTP would be win-win for the country.

1. Your vote would matter
2. You'd have wider political choice

The coalitions that form would have to respect some of the manifesto of their allies, otherwise their allies wouldn't get re-elected.