We paid £70m for Hojlund, that's too much. Now it falls into the "high risk, high reward" category.Okay, we did that with Højlund, so we already have a younger one, maybe we should sign an experienced one approaching his prime who clearly is a better striker at the moment, instead of another young one who will likely face the same scenario as Højlund?
We need a mix of youth and experience, not just a bunch of potential.
Yeah but my point was about taking someone's opinion out of it. My opinion on Gyokeres is irrelevant because I don't know enough about him...but I can still say he's not the right profile.Obviously, it's my opinion mate, that is the point of the forum. I'm just a big fan of the player and have been following him since the back end of the 21/22 season as I mentioned.
He's reportedly available for 60/70 million euros (~£50 Million), and I would definitely consider it. However, I'm aware that multiple areas in the team need strengthening. We can't afford not to have someone that consistently puts the ball in the back of the net as much as we have to worry about PSR.
Personally, I think we see how Rasmus develops over the course of the season under Ruben and make a decision as to whether we need a more experienced striker to take the load off him.
You need a good mix of youth and experience and in the summer we are going to lose a lot of it presuming that Maguire, Eriksen, Evans, Casemiro, Lindelof etc all leave. I consider Gyokeres a ready-made 'finished article' type player to come in and fit right into the team and at 27 he is in or just approaching the absolute prime of his career. You need players like that in the team, you can't just fill it with 21-year-olds as they are just too inconsistent.
If you get him for £50 million and he comes in and scores 20 PL goals a season for 3 or so years while helping Hojlund develop into a more rounded player then I see it as a no brainer.
It's early days I know but I think I'd cut our losses on Zirkzee and get someone more suited to English football. I don't think he is at this moment in time but he may prove me wrong.
I didn't compare his career trajectory to Kane, I said he reminds me of Kane as a player the way he finishes very well on both feet and doesn't mind scoring 'scruffy' goals. A great goalscorer, not a scorer of great goals.
You're right, it was too much. But he is here now, and he goes in the category young striker with potential. Don't you think it'd be wise to get in a striker that is already the finished article to make us better than spending time developing two young strikers who may not even be good enough?We paid £70m for Hojlund, that's too much. Now it falls into the "high risk, high reward" category.
If am signing a player with experience i.e. older than 25, I'd want a player who's contract situation meant they could be signed on the cheap...or who was undervalued by a club who needed the money, like Mazraoui. I wouldn't pay £65m for a player of that profile.
I don't think a top goalscorer is 'fancy icing' it's a foundational aspect of a great team. It's a fundamental ingredient in the cake.Yeah but my point was about taking someone's opinion out of it. My opinion on Gyokeres is irrelevant because I don't know enough about him...but I can still say he's not the right profile.
Anyway...I agree that there is a price at which he'd become interesting. This is the thing about transfers and risk. If someone said we could sign Gyokeres for £30m then I'd drive to Lisbon now and drop him off outside Carrington. I am just very wary of buying more players for a total outlay of £100m (because you do have to consider contracts and salaries) that may or may not be right for us.
Also our development comes into it. Right now, I'd argue because we're still "baking the cake" there's no point buying fancy icing, so I don't like the idea of saying someone will come in and do a job for three seasons. Not for that kind of money, because the opportunity cost is we miss out on signing players in other positions.
Really going on a tangent now but this is why City are such filthy cheats and we shouldn't forget it...unlimited funds means no risk...look how many CFs they signed before stumbling on Aguero...or how many CBs before Kompany and then Dias. "They never miss in the market"...absolutely b#llocks...they just bought anybody and everybody they could until some worked! We don't have that luxury unfortunately.
A few things here:That's not how we think about risk though is it...i.e. as a binary thing (something is either a risk or it is not).
When Haaland was at Molde, we turned down the chance to sign him, and again when he went to Salzburg (source OGS on the Overlap).
Now, for me, and I believe for INEOS, a player like Modle or Salzburg Haaland would be a slam-dunk signing.
For a young player, available for around £4m and £15m the two times we showed some interested, there's nothing to lose, really. You sign him, he flops, you move him on. You sign him, he does OK, you sell him for a decent profit or keep him as a squad player. You sign him, he reaches his ceiling...you have a generational talent on your hands for a few million pounds and are set for a decade.
So, when we think about defining risk, we would say this is low risk, high reward.
Now do the same analysis with Gyokeres. Let's say we can get him for £65m/£70m on £200,000 per week on a 4+1 deal. That's a big outlay. Around £100m. Now consider the same three outcomes...he flops...we might get £20m back (bear in mind he'd be 29 if we gave him 18-24months). He does OK...we might use him as a squad player...but he'd be a bloody expensive one at £100m.
Now say he reaches his ceiling...well what is his ceiling, first and foremost? Is he really on par with prime Lewandowski or Haaaland or Kane or RvN or Suarez or Ronaldo etc...or are we saying he's the level below that, or are we saying hes not that level but has the potential to be?
I don't know because I have seen 45mins of him in action...but it seems quite unlikely he is, or will be as good as those superstars of the position. So in my view we're taking a high risk, reasonable reward line.
Not related to that argument, but another hypothetical I always like to imagine with a CF is "what would Watkins do?"...the premise being Ollie Watkins is a very good, but not elite, Premier League level striker. If Ollie Watkins played in the Portuguese league for that Sporting team, how many would he get? And would that lead us to wanting to pay £70m for him to lead the line for Manchester United as we attempt to regain our former glories?
Again, not intended as a bullet-proof scientific analysis, more a thought-experiment.
I don’t agree, I think your approach could be very costly when we consider the situation we are at. If you are going to give a forward a decent amount of chances and he fails, that is most likely the difference between us qualifying for the CL/EL or not. Big big risk.That's not how we think about risk though is it...i.e. as a binary thing (something is either a risk or it is not).
When Haaland was at Molde, we turned down the chance to sign him, and again when he went to Salzburg (source OGS on the Overlap).
Now, for me, and I believe for INEOS, a player like Modle or Salzburg Haaland would be a slam-dunk signing.
For a young player, available for around £4m and £15m the two times we showed some interested, there's nothing to lose, really. You sign him, he flops, you move him on. You sign him, he does OK, you sell him for a decent profit or keep him as a squad player. You sign him, he reaches his ceiling...you have a generational talent on your hands for a few million pounds and are set for a decade.
So, when we think about defining risk, we would say this is low risk, high reward.
I think that the devil lies in the detail specifically three of themI don’t agree, I think your approach could be very costly when we consider the situation we are at. If you are going to give a forward a decent amount of chances and he fails, that is most likely the difference between us qualifying for the CL/EL or not. Big big risk.
We should probably throw the kitchen sink at Sporting. And hide Zirkzee in it
This is the mentality that has gotten us stuck with so many mediocre talentUnited score so few goals...so any player in Europe who is scoring for fun is worth a look.
Will be interesting to see how Hojlund and Amorim work together and develop in the next few months, but Gyokeres will be on the move come the summer so United will need to act quickly if they want him.
This is the mentality that has gotten us stuck with so many mediocre talent
Really good article on Victor and his development
I'm not sure I fully understand all this talk about him being the best CF in Europe... he's in great form and I'd love to see him get a move to an elite club to see what he can do, but this discussion feels rather premature. Kane, Haaland and Lewandowski are all scoring at pretty much the same rate in stronger leagues against better competition.
(This argument seems to have disappeared since the hat-trick against City, despite them being in freefall and two of those being penalties)
He is the top scorer or joint top scorer in every major competition this season that he's played in. Nations League, Champions League and Portuguese Premier League.Haaland has 27 goal contributions in 2,055 minutes which means a G or A every 76.1 minutes,
Viktor has 39 goal contributions in 1,863 minutes which means a G or A every 47.7 minutes,
Kane has 33 goal contributions in 2,247 minutes which means a G or A every 68.1 minutes,
Lewandowski has 26 goal contributions in 1,883 minutes which means a G or A every 72.4 minutes.
Gykoeres is levels above them from an output point of view (You could argue the league he is in helps that) but the fact remains his output is pretty much unmatched at the minute.
Considering we will probably lose 3 CB's in the summer you'd have to say that they are probably the priority.we have to make a move for this guy next summer without question
him, a left wing back, attacking mid and holding mid should be top priorities
Numbers do seem ridiculous - Yet to be seen if he can continue this streak or whether he drops off, also not sure if he would work in the premier league as I know he didn't look to great at CoventryHe is the top scorer or joint top scorer in every major competition this season that he's played in. Nations League, Champions League and Portuguese Premier League.
You take the penalties out and you'll find the numbers very similar. He's also playing in the weakest Nations League group out of these forwards.Haaland has 27 goal contributions in 2,055 minutes which means a G or A every 76.1 minutes,
Viktor has 39 goal contributions in 1,863 minutes which means a G or A every 47.7 minutes,
Kane has 33 goal contributions in 2,247 minutes which means a G or A every 68.1 minutes,
Lewandowski has 26 goal contributions in 1,883 minutes which means a G or A every 72.4 minutes.
Gykoeres is levels above them from an output point of view (You could argue the league he is in helps that) but the fact remains his output is pretty much unmatched at the minute.
Whoscored includes Kane's minutes in the Euros though which brings his average down significantly - feels rather unfair as direct comparison given how notoriously difficult it is to score goals at major international tournaments.Haaland has 27 goal contributions in 2,055 minutes which means a G or A every 76.1 minutes,
Viktor has 39 goal contributions in 1,863 minutes which means a G or A every 47.7 minutes,
Kane has 33 goal contributions in 2,247 minutes which means a G or A every 68.1 minutes,
Lewandowski has 26 goal contributions in 1,883 minutes which means a G or A every 72.4 minutes.
Gykoeres is levels above them from an output point of view (You could argue the league he is in helps that) but the fact remains his output is pretty much unmatched at the minute.
Whoscored includes Kane's minutes in the Euros though which brings his average down significantly - feels rather unfair as direct comparison given how notoriously difficult it is to score goals at major international tournaments.
According to Transfermarkt since the start of this season, it's 33+8 in 2,078 mins for Gyokeres and 23+9 in 1,722 mins for Kane - which are pretty much identical in terms of goal contributions per minute (51 v 54).
Yes I used whoscored.com but how did you get an extra c.200 minutes for Gyokeres?
There is a high risk that Gyökeres isn’t available next summer. There are rumours that Barca are already now prepared now to sign him for a contract where he starts to play for them season 2026/27. That is to sign him now but let him play for Sporting on a loan. If that is true, I believe that would be attractive to Sporting.United score so few goals...so any player in Europe who is scoring for fun is worth a look.
Will be interesting to see how Hojlund and Amorim work together and develop in the next few months, but Gyokeres will be on the move come the summer so United will need to act quickly if they want him.
If he wants to play another year in Sporting. As swede Ive seen interviews with him in Swedish media and it feels like he flirts with bigger teams. He is under HCM Sports Management and has Hasan Cetinkaya as agent. (Same as Lindelof). He is their highest valued player at the moment and I do really think they want to cash in when hes hot.There is a high risk that Gyökeres isn’t available next summer. There are rumours that Barca are already now prepared now to sign him for a contract where he starts to play for them season 2026/27. That is to sign him now but let him play for Sporting on a loan. If that is true, I believe that would be attractive to Sporting.
Good post. Too many people don't seem to realize how fecking expensive "proven" strikers really are. Someone like Isak will cost close to 100m to pry from Newcastle and while I love watching Isak it's not like he's some gunman that's guaranteed to bang in 20+ goals a year every year (he did last year for the first time mind you). But the days of just being able to go buy a top level proven striker are gone, partly because of the inflation in the transfer market and partly because top strikers just don't come around nearly as much as they did 15-20 years ago. So it becomes much more of a game of scouting and trying to find the balance between value and proven ability. Sure VG has had a later development for his career than a lot of other players, but you're also looking at someone who for 2 seasons now is scoring at a higher rate than almost anyone in Europe, with a variety of finishes and quality overall game. Add in the obvious fact that he's our new manager's former striker in this system, is of a good age, and isn't going to cost an entire budget and it sort of seems like a no brainer if he's willing to come here.A few things here:
Haaland is an outlier and almost entirely a one-off freak that you can't liken to others. His ascent, few trusted in and, sure, speculative punts at the time he cost buttons would have been magnificent. But normalising elite strikers, you are not going to get a bona fide, proven elite striker for anything like £65m, let alone his wages/& sign on fee, so they shouldn't be spoken about in relation to what we may as well call tier B-level "great unknowns" - for what he will cost, you have to bracket that with others who would cost the same, not A and S tier players who you can slap double or triple on for both purchase price and wage.
So with that said, the £65-£80m bracket, what kind of players are going to come to prominence in that bracket? Potentially great players; players who have done really well at a lower level or in an unfancied league basically players that add an element of risk and unknown aspects to their step up, which is why they don't cost enough to shift into A or S-tier territory. A player like Gyoekeres immediately slots into this banding, and I don't think that's revelatory. The only question there is if the money men have the belief in what he's producing to entertain purchasing him.
You brushed over the most important part of what was written in that clubs of such stature should never be playing blind when it comes to scoring goals and that is why a player who is ready to lead the line is absolutely vital. We don't have one at the club, unless Rashford proves otherwise, which is where the Swede's age profile is actually a plus not a negative. He's there to do a job immediately and take the load off of players like Hojlund, Zirkzee and even Rashford. Doubts about aptitude are different to the need for experience up top.
The sell-on issue is not one United tend to entertain because such players are bought with the intent that they deliver, and if they don't the cost is written off; we rarely sell prematurely instead preferring to squeeze the fruit dry and release on a free. That's the gamble and question: is this player worth that risk or not?
I think we should just go offer sporting £75m in January, get the deal done and allow him to play the next 6 months there until the summer if they refuse to release him now.
I actually think we need two strikers and I’d keep Rasmus, buy Gykores and then add Matheus Cunha from wolves who would be a huge upgrade on Zirkzee, Antony and Either Garnaucho or Rashford, one of those two will need to go, not because there not good enough but because they simply don’t fit Amorim’s System.
We will need to be brave and make some drastic decisions to get the squad to where we need it to be. Cunha can play the second striker or left 10 role and he’s a huge upgrade .
He’s got 2 and half years on contract, they sold Neto for £47m with similar contract, think we could do that deal £50-55m in January or summer then we need any one of three Victos/Viktors ; Gyokeres, Osimhen or Boniface I’ll take any one of those three as a huge upgrade in what we currently have!I love Cunha. Ideal fit, great base level player, good technicality and physical attributes, and can play anywhere in attack. Not sure how much Wolves will want for him, but I'm praying we go for him or Kvara in the summer along with another attacker.
He’s got 2 and half years on contract, they sold Neto for £47m with similar contract, think we could do that deal £50-55m in January or summer then we need any one of three Victos/Viktors ; Gyokeres, Osimhen or Boniface I’ll take any one of those three as a huge upgrade in what we currently have!
They paid €50m (£41m), there’s definitely a deal at £55-60m to be done as he would only have 2 years left in his contract, no one is paying £80-100m for a player anymore, just look at the Victor Osimhen fiasco, none of the big clubs would pay the £100-120m buy out clause and now you can get him at £60-65m as his contract expires in 2026.They paid 50m for him just over a year ago and he's become by far their most important attacking player. Absolutely no chance at those fees.
Remember being annoyed reading how many didn’t want him around here when we were linked a couple of years ago. Personally I’ve always really liked himThey paid 50m for him just over a year ago and he's become by far their most important attacking player. Absolutely no chance at those fees.
