Except of course Steve Bannon.
US Politics
- Thread starter Nick 0208 Ldn
- Start date
Happens a lot to them I thinkDamn you are right, never realisedI just found it on 538 last night an just didn't bother to read past "Nate", sorry
Cohn's election night analysis is better I think, Silver has the edge on forecasting.
Despite the tarnished image, he still got 28% of the votes. I think it does not matter what kind of a candidate the RNC puts out, the republicans will vote for him/her. It has become an issue of us vs them, and winning matters more than the quality of the candidate. Dems need to select candidates who will appeal to the moderates so that their votes do not go to the Republicans.
it would be the tactical play... but I actually think you will see a greater divergence with the dems going for more "liberal" candidates than usual and the republicans more "conservative" than usual as they look to appeal to their own core base than the middle ground... I use the "" as obviously in a political context liberal and conservative have very different implications on either side of the pond
US has more than two parties but the system is set up to hold back other parties from sharing the same political stage for debates and whatnot, hence why this country isn't a true democracy. Then you have varying ideologies inserting themselves into the two major political parties in order to win votes. I do think a bonafide third party development, one that does not contain fringe nutters, could be good for the country.
Hate talk radio indoctrinated the audience but social media now provides the "eyes" versus the "ears" and has built a platform for pushing bullshit, misinformation, etc. It's really disgusting.
Was there a ‚shy voters‘ problem with polls this time/any conclusions in that regard?
Thanks - interesting point - from an outside view its easy to assume the general societal change since the 50's has occurred across America, but as you say - there will still be pockets out there that have not moved at the same pace or in the same way. it all feels very Jerry Lee Lewis - but then again he is still going strong so why would those attitudes just die away if they are not challenged.
Polls were all over the place, in the final couple of days there was a Jones +10 (Fox), Moore +9 (Emerson) and a tie (Monmouth). Overall the crude average had Moore up by about 2 - https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ecial_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html#polls
Biggest problem, which is standard these days, was modelling the correct turnout.
Digital records can be destroyed.
Read this part to see how absurd this is. The count has given permission for the state to continue destroying the digital records until the next hearing takes place
https://techcrunch.com/2017/12/12/alabama-digital-records-vote-roy-moore/
Thanks, I guess.
Just stunned he pulled it off. Jones needed many things to fall in his favour to win and he did it.
GOP already trashing Bannon
Trump is from New York and was enable by New York all his life. Most of the sexual assaulting celebrities live in California. There's no moral high ground here.
That actually does not look that bad, even if the districts were more evenly shaped you probably would have similar results.
Unless of course you gerrymandered the districts another way.
Nah, it looks like they've gone to a lot of effort to draw the line around the places where most black people live (across multiple cities).
New Republican strategy: spin this as a win in the long term, because... reasons.
Write in's for Nick Saban Like there's no entertainment enough.
Like there's no entertainment enough.Or the guy holding the pen had the shakes.
Did Trump tweet this win is short term? Something like we'll get to next poll soon...like that?
Have to really get into the population levels and where the repubs and Dems are within the state at very detailed level to see how much difference it would make. District 7 would remain heavily democrat. Other districts might not change that much either.
Given what we see on that map not enough info to say how changing the shape would change the outcome.
Common theme from the righties today is that Jones is already a lame duck and will be out next election. A one-termer is the phrase, as opposed to Moore being a zero-termer.
While that's true you have to question the logic of anything where the majority ends up losing, and winning just 1 seat out of 7. (@fontaine)
Not sure if it would change the result, as in an SMP system even normally drawn boundaries can result in stuff like that if there are large densities of votes, but it's still clearly a massive gerrymander.
It went from this in 83-92:
to this is 93-02:
ending up with this in 2013:
It's just ridiculous that a partisan group of representatives are allowed to draw boundaries, in any state.
This is why I am being a little cautious about suggesting this is a major turn away from Trump/Bannon. Next election if the write-ins go back to voting for the nominated candidate and depending on what happens with turnout things could go another way.Write in's for Nick Saban
Not sure if it would change the result, as in an SMP system even normally drawn boundaries can result in stuff like that if there are large densities of votes, but it's still clearly a massive gerrymander.
It went from this in 83-92:
to this is 93-02:
ending up with this in 2013:
It's just ridiculous that a partisan group of representatives are allowed to draw boundaries, in any state.
It's a cleat effort to merge the already heavily democratic city of Birmingham with the democratic district 7.
Let's not pretend it was an overwhelming majority though. Even within each district I bet we could find areas that voted radically different from each other.
Congressional seats are not awarded based on state wide votes. They are elected by district. This ensures that each district has someone to represent them. It's similar to the House of Commons.
Gerrymandering is wrong and needs to be addressed it has long been used by both sides to turn things in their favor.
The first one is better, more evenly shaped. Less intrusion into each district from fingers of other districts.Not sure if it would change the result, as in an SMP system even normally drawn boundaries can result in stuff like that if there are large densities of votes, but it's still clearly a massive gerrymander.
It went from this in 83-92:
to this is 93-02:
ending up with this in 2013:
It's just ridiculous that a partisan group of representatives are allowed to draw boundaries, in any state.
There needs to be ways to draw districts in a non-partisan manner.
Going to have to play that when I have some time. Some interesting scenarios.
Won't play on my phone.
Yup. I think most people still vote on Party lines, just that they can't stomach Roy Moore personally. Next elections if GOP can field a candidate without the hang ups of Roy, then voters will go back.
Rep Steve Cohen is in a fiery mood at the Rosenstein hearing. Just gave a passionate defence of the FBI and scathing at the way Trump has belittled the agency.