US Politics

oneniltothearsenal said:
Because his sexual assaults were unsuccessful apparently

I think its clear now this guy is dirty and should be withdrawn. But Trump can't withdraw because of his ego. The smarter tactical move is to withdraw and just nominate someone else but Trump can't do that. So this is going to end up helping the Dems a lot more than originally thought.
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its not ego.

He needs a guy who is going to vote No when Mueller wants to subpoena him.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
I still think its ego. He could still just nominate someone else.
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It’s not just ego. He’s done a deal with Kavanaugh, it’s bloody obvious. The judge Kavanaugh would be succeeding is the father of the Deutche Bank director who lent Trump billions. The same bank that is under the microscope for money laundering and it’s dealings with oligarchs.
 
Pexbo said:
It’s not just ego. He’s done a deal with Kavanaugh, it’s bloody obvious. The judge Kavanaugh would be succeeding is the father of the Deutche Bank director who lent Trump billions. The same bank that is under the microscope for money laundering and it’s dealings with oligarchs.
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Sure. Kavanaugh is his golden goose. But this has turned into a game of attrition and the longer he holds onto Kavanaugh the more damage it will end doing to both Trump and the Reps for the midterms. Its important to know when to cut your losses and shift to Plan B. Trump has a hard time doing this because of his emotions, its probably his biggest weakness imo. He never wants to back down no matter what and sometimes that leads to crushing losses instead of a smart tactical retreat.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Sure. Kavanaugh is his golden goose. But this has turned into a game of attrition and the longer he holds onto Kavanaugh the more damage it will end doing to both Trump and the Reps for the midterms. Its important to know when to cut your losses and shift to Plan B. Trump has a hard time doing this because of his emotions, its probably his biggest weakness imo. He never wants to back down no matter what and sometimes that leads to crushing losses instead of a smart tactical retreat.
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Trump may be at a point he does not care about the mid terms. He may well be packing to go to his Russian Villa.

Things are moving pretty fast.
 
The billionaire businessman & American success story who couldn't get loans from American banks. Ahem.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Sure. Kavanaugh is his golden goose. But this has turned into a game of attrition and the longer he holds onto Kavanaugh the more damage it will end doing to both Trump and the Reps for the midterms. Its important to know when to cut your losses and shift to Plan B. Trump has a hard time doing this because of his emotions, its probably his biggest weakness imo. He never wants to back down no matter what and sometimes that leads to crushing losses instead of a smart tactical retreat.
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I’m not sure if I completely agree or disagree. You’re right in that he has no sense of timing, he doesn’t know when to cut the cord to make the best out of a bad situation... however personally he never comes off too bad. It’s the subject that comes off the worst. Somehow Trump is allowed to simply wash his hands of them and claim he had no confidence in them and move on to the next.

Not very useful for him on a metal level in that he loses a lot of battles but he’s incredibly resilient and rides out the war just fine.
 
Red Dreams said:
Trump may be at a point he does not care about the mid terms. He may well be packing to go to his Russian Villa.

Things are moving pretty fast.
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I think you are right about Trump. But the Senate Republicans care about the mid-terms. This is a working as a nice wedge between Trump and Rep leaders in Congress.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
I think you are right about Trump. But the Senate Republicans care about the mid-terms. This is a working as a nice wedge between Trump and Rep leaders in Congress.
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They know what Trump is. But they have no other voters.

Its really try and pump up the volume.

Then bail out when things don't go their way.

Another candidate? no time.

They have no choice than to 'plow through'.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Sure. Kavanaugh is his golden goose. But this has turned into a game of attrition and the longer he holds onto Kavanaugh the more damage it will end doing to both Trump and the Reps for the midterms. Its important to know when to cut your losses and shift to Plan B. Trump has a hard time doing this because of his emotions, its probably his biggest weakness imo. He never wants to back down no matter what and sometimes that leads to crushing losses instead of a smart tactical retreat.
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The only way they cut ties with Kavanaugh, with the midterms being this close, is if they ram the next nominee through committee and have a quick vote, ensuring they have 50 votes (Pence to break the tie).

The Republicans gain nothing by being nice on this issue. The polls indicate as such. As long as they do the absolute bare minimum on Thursday, it seems that'll be enough to sway one of Collins and Murkowski.

Either way, they aren't risking this lapsing until after midterms.
 
Goes without saying that Kavanaugh shouldn't be able to go on a cosy tv show to defend himself while this is ongoing.
 
Pexbo said:
I’m not sure if I completely agree or disagree. You’re right in that he has no sense of timing, he doesn’t know when to cut the cord to make the best out of a bad situation... however personally he never comes off too bad. It’s the subject that comes off the worst. Somehow Trump is allowed to simply wash his hands of them and claim he had no confidence in them and move on to the next.

Not very useful for him on a metal level in that he loses a lot of battles but he’s incredibly resilient and rides out the war just fine.
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I'd agree he seems to have some of that "Teflon Presidency" but I don't think that capacity is unlimited.

adexkola said:
The only way they cut ties with Kavanaugh, with the midterms being this close, is if they ram the next nominee through committee and have a quick vote, ensuring they have 50 votes (Pence to break the tie).

The Republicans gain nothing by being nice on this issue. The polls indicate as such. As long as they do the absolute bare minimum on Thursday, it seems that'll be enough to sway one of Collins and Murkowski.

Either way, they aren't risking this lapsing until after midterms.
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Its a risk either way. I think the way they are playing it Kavanaugh is going to ensure an even bigger Democrat turnout.
 
Red Dreams said:
Should Flake vote with the Democrats, this nomination is dead, correct?
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Not necessarily as it would take Collins, Murkowski, and probably Flake to vote against since there is no guarantee that one or two red state Dems up for reelection in states Trump won, wouldn't vote to confirm.

Red Dreams said:
He may well switch parties next year.
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He's out of politics 46 days from now.
 
Raoul said:
Not necessarily as it would take Collins, Murkowski, and probably Flake to vote against since there is no guarantee that one or two red state Dems up for reelection in states Trump won, wouldn't vote to confirm.



He's out of politics 46 days from now.
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If he votes with Dems in Committee it does not get to the floor for a vote.

I know he is not running again.

EDIT:

It can still get to the floor if McConnell brings it.
 
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Red Dreams said:
If he votes with Dems in Committee it does not get to the floor for a vote.

I know he is not running again.
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That's a possibility. If Flake votes no then there's a decent chance Sasse will as well. At that point it would be lights out for Kavanaugh.
 
Raoul said:
That's a possibility. If Flake votes no then there's a decent chance Sasse will as well. At that point it would be lights out for Kavanaugh.
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I remember Collins saying 6 or 7 are undecided. Mind you she may be blowing smoke.

But Flake can give some cover.

Most know Trump's days in power are numbered. They will be wanting to save their own futures.

EDIT:

I suspect Corker also wants the opportunity to vote No.
 
Remember that this issue is important to Republicans. Having a judge who is adamant in overturning Roe is their raison d’etre, so don’t be surprised if push comes to shove even the likes of blue state Rs like Collins take a suicide dive to get Kavanaugh confirmed.

There are chatters about letting him through on party lines and impeach later but it’s pie in the sky.
 
berbatrick said:
I don't think she's electorally vulnerable. Her image among liberals is fairly secure IIRC.
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Voting for a sexual offender who went on to repeal Roe is a bridge too far for most liberals.

She’s secured because she’s used her position to get a lot of money for Maine, leveraging her vote into small amendments in budget bills, but ideologically ramming Kavanaugh through is still a big no no.
 
CNN...'Just less than half of Americans -- 45% -- said they have a favorable view of the Republican party, according to a Gallup poll released Monday. And while the party fears a difficult midterm Election Day in November, this is the highest favorable view of the party since January 2011, when the party hit 47%, immediately after retaking Congress during the 2010 midterm elections.'

So...

 
Grinner said:
Well nobody (Founding Fathers) really planned for this scenario and how could they? What they did assume is that the Congress would contain people of honour who would do the right thing. Sadly they were too optimistic.
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They likely never envisioned large corporations springing up and ultimately buying political seats.
 
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