U.S. Presidential Race: Official Thread

Obama or McCain/Democrat or Republican..you decide

  • McCain

    Votes: 14 7.5%

  • Obama

    Votes: 173 92.5%
  • Total voters
    187
  • Poll closed .
It's over Obama has won, will be interesting in 4 years. Will be pissed if he doesnt do well but wont be surprised he seems to lie to his teeth
 
Honestly I think Palin would be a good feck, I smell a red cafe poll
 
how did she not realize it was a joke rightaway ?

she really is slow isnt she :lol:
i feel bad for her ..
 
I dont feel bad for her, had McCain made an intelligent choice for Vp he probably would habe won, her, give me a fecking break
 
AlwaysRedwood said:
59.
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Red Dreams said:
58 imo
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including the independants?

ooeat0meoo said:
The past 4-8 years have been a clusterfeck on every front... as much as the Republicans might try to sound more progressive, the voters are desperate to put the power into someone else's hands.

Just my belief...
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as an outsider this would be my view, but we obviously get a distorted view of it in Britain, and our own obvious bias towards Obama doesn't help.

Do you think the republicans challenging voter registration everywhere and Bush sending out 800 lawyers to 23 states (almost certainly in minority areas) to make sure "everyone who is entitled to vote can" will have an effect, if not on the presidential race then on the senate and house races?
 
Alex said:
It's over Obama has won, will be interesting in 4 years. Will be pissed if he doesnt do well but wont be surprised he seems to lie to his teeth
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all the evidence I've seen shows McCain's campaign to contain far more lies than Obama's, so where's your evidence that Obama lie's through his teeth? (or lies more than McCain given thats the choice)
 
I take it you've all heard aout this prank call that Palin got caught out by [She believed that she was talking to Sarkozy]?
 
The polls make it pretty clear that Obama is going to be POTUS. I doubt whether Roe vs Wade will be a major concern for him, like it would be for Palin or McCain. Unlike many of the Republicans, Obama realises that there are more important issues out there. Roe vs Wade was a supreme court decision and the judiciary is intended to remain separate from the executive. I wouldn't criticise him for supporting the current law.

Abortion is never ideal but it's a symptom of a social problem and perhaps Obama will go further towards fixing that problem than Dubya or McCain would be able to. That's the bigger picture in any discussion of abortion rights.
 
Noodles was at Stamford Bridge yesterday.

Make of that what you will
 
Polls in PA have been tightening over the past week. McCain and Palin are going all out there in the final days, while Obama is targeting Red states. If McCain can turn PA, its back on.

Lets hope this doesn't turn out to be over confidence or complacency that costs Obama the election.
 
RapidRed said:
Polls in PA have been tightening over the past week. McCain and Palin are going all out there in the final days, while Obama is targeting Red states. If McCain can turn PA, its back on.

Lets hope this doesn't turn out to be over confidence or complacency that costs Obama the election.
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I think polls always tighten when there's been such a gap going into the final days

I don't think it'll matter though. Massive early voting, and a greater drive of getting people to vote on the day, should in my view give the Democrats a big victory. It's all very well asking swing voters who they'll vote for on election day, its another actually getting them to do it
 
Also, I can't bloody wait for Tuesday. I love elections, I'll be sat up all night with an interactive map of the US.
 
Brad said:
I think polls always tighten when there's been such a gap going into the final days
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Thats the general belief here, although I am not sure if there has always been such a trend in the past. This is the first election since I moved to the US, and it is the one I've followed most closely, all the way through the primaries. I don't recall seeing such a tightening before election day in the primaries.

If the polls are covering the same sample space, then the only reason why this tightening would happen is because the "undecideds" are breaking towards McCain.


I don't think it'll matter though. Massive early voting, and a greater drive of getting people to vote on the day, should in my view give the Democrats a big victory. It's all very well asking swing voters who they'll vote for on election day, its another actually getting them to do it
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All over the news channels here, it is being reported that the Obama campaign has put an unprecedented amount of resources into ground forces to make sure that people go and vote. That should increase the turn out which in all likelihood would help Obama.
 
RR, the lead narrowed right at the end in the last two elections, at any rate. There's been some tightening, but too little, too late. If McCain takes PA I will rim a wolverine.

Good analysis here, as ever, at 538.com, the Patrice Evra of electoral statistics websites:

Today's Polls

What would tightening look like?

Note to noods - apologies, I checked and you're right, the steam engine hasn't been invented.
 
RapidRed said:
Polls in PA have been tightening over the past week.
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Not much. Most polls are staying the same. The press is going apeshit over any poll that shows it close. All day MSNBC has been running the Mason Dixon poll, which shows a tight race. What they are failing to mention is the Mason Dixon poll shows an Obama increase from their last poll.

It's an amazing amount of bullshit to get people to watch their stations.

Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama's lead is continuing to inch upwards in the daily tracking polls, undoing much of the progress that John McCain made about a week ago:

• Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-42% lead from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 54%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-44% Obama lead yesterday

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.5%-44.2%, a lead of 7.3 points, compared to the 51.2%-44.1% Obama lead from yesterday. Counting today, Obama's lead has increased by small amounts in the last four consecutive Composites.
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Wibble: Obama 396 McCain 142
p_ps_sock: Obama 367 McCain 171
Red Dreams: Obama 364 McCain 174
Raoul: Obama 364 McCain 174
Frosty: Obama 364 McCain 174
AlwaysRedwood: Obama 360 McCain 182
niMic: Obama 353 McCain 185
Surf: Obama 352 McCain 186
Rahul: Obama 350 McCain 188
CapeTownRed: Obama 344 McCain 194
Utdalltheway: Obama 343 McCain 195
Brad: Obama 341 McCain 197
Cali Red: Obama 340 McCain 198
SiYuan: Obama 338 McCain 200
Crappycraperson: Obama 335 McCain 203
Spinoza: Obama 333 McCain 205
Manufanatic: Obama 328 McCain 210
ooeat0meoo: Obama 328 McCain 210
Afrocentricity: Obama 320, McCain 218
Sincher: Obama 311 McCain 226
Plechazunga: Obama 306 McCain 232
RedKaos: Obama 300 McCain 238
DanH: Obama 300 McCain 238
DoctorEvil: Obama 291 McCain 247
Nistelrooy10: 287-251 for Obama
Rednev: Obama 280 McCain 258
M160RA: Obama 280 McCain 258
WeWonItTwoTimes: Obama 269 McCain 269
 
AlwaysRedwood said:
Not much. Most polls are staying the same. The press is going apeshit over any poll that shows it close. All day MSNBC has been running the Mason Dixon poll, which shows a tight race. What they are failing to mention is the Mason Dixon poll shows an Obama increase from their last poll.

It's an amazing amount of bullshit to get people to watch their stations.
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isn't it probably fairer to look at the polls of states still in play rather than nationals though? i think McCain is closing in those, but then again he was always going to as election day approaches.


I see the RNC has brought rev wright onto the agenda as well.
 
DanH said:
isn't it probably fairer to look at the polls of states still in play rather than nationals though? i think McCain is closing in those, but then again he was always going to as election day approaches.
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Again, no he's not. Obama is pulling ahead in some, McCain gaining in some. The press is only focusing on the ones McCain is gaining in. Why not focus on the fact that Montana and Arizona are now toss ups? No, they focus on Pennsylvania, which has tightened, but is a strong blue state and is still very much in Obama's control.

It's ridiculous.
 
Montana and Arizona are not toss-ups. At the very most they're lean McCain... which incidentally sounds like a ready-meal steak. Only one poll in the last week, Research 2000, called AZ a toss-up. All the others were 4, 5, 6, 7+ McCain. Recent MT polls almost all put McCain 4 up, none less than 3. MO is considerably tighter than MT.

Some good national trackers coming through though:

Pew: 52-46
CNN: 53-46
CBS: 54-41
USAToday/ Gallup: 53-42

As DanH says, it's the battlegrounds that are the key polls now, but it's nice to see those numbers. If he's 6-7 points up nationally, it's almost impossible to see PA going for McCain, given that it's been 2-5 points bluer than the rest of the country the last four elections.

On another note, I'm now regretting getting cold feet about Nevada. If those five little electoral votes give sincher victory in this sweepstake, not even the Obama victory will console me.
 
Not sure whats up with the latest Mason Dixon polls. They've got McCain up in NC, OH, and MO. I hope its errant methodology as opposed to reality.
 
Plechazunga said:
Montana and Arizona are not toss-ups. At the very most they're lean McCain... which incidentally sounds like a ready-meal steak. Only one poll in the last week, Research 2000, called AZ a toss-up. All the others were 4, 5, 6, 7+ McCain. Recent MT polls almost all put McCain 4 up, none less than 3. MO is considerably tighter than MT.
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Montana was moved to "toss up" today.

Arizona has been polled as a tie by Research 2000, which is done by the University of Arizona and is considered to be a "gold standard" poll. In Arizona, they are polling. So, discount it at your peril.

Out of seventeen polls, only two have McCain ahead in Nevada. Zogby and ARG, both Republican pollsters. He is ahead by an average of 5 points in all Nevada polls, which is huge.
 
Raoul said:
Not sure whats up with the latest Mason Dixon polls. They've got McCain up in NC, OH, and MO. I hope its errant methodology as opposed to reality.
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They have had the most Republican leaning polls this election.
 
Wibble: Obama 396 (378) McCain 142 (160)
p_ps_sock: Obama 367 McCain 171
Red Dreams: Obama 364 McCain 174
Raoul: Obama 364 McCain 174
Frosty: Obama 364 McCain 174
AlwaysRedwood: Obama 360 McCain 182
niMic: Obama 353 McCain 185
Surf: Obama 352 McCain 186
Rahul: Obama 350 McCain 188
CapeTownRed: Obama 344 McCain 194
Utdalltheway: Obama 343 McCain 195
Brad: Obama 341 McCain 197
Cali Red: Obama 340 McCain 198
SiYuan: Obama 338 McCain 200
Crappycraperson: Obama 335 McCain 203
Spinoza: Obama 333 McCain 205
Manufanatic: Obama 328 McCain 210
ooeat0meoo: Obama 328 McCain 210
Afrocentricity: Obama 320, McCain 218
Sincher: Obama 311 McCain 226
Plechazunga: Obama 306 McCain 232
RedKaos: Obama 300 McCain 238
DanH: Obama 300 McCain 238
DoctorEvil: Obama 291 McCain 247
Nistelrooy10: 287-251 for Obama
RapidRed: Obama 286 McCain 252
Rednev: Obama 280 McCain 258
M160RA: Obama 280 McCain 258
WeWonItTwoTimes: Obama 269 McCain 269

PREDICTIONS NOW CLOSED
 
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