Isn't the latter part of your post just monday morning quarterbacking? They made the best decision with the information available at the time. I am not even convinced it is wrong decision in hindsight. And if delta became dominant a month earlier, they could have done some restrictions and brought the second doses forward. Sometimes things change just because of bad luck, nothing else.
The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll
- Thread starter Badunk
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No this was one of the risks that was outlined at the start of the strategy. Discussed in this very thread. I think the decision was the right one given the other choices available but I think it is a reminder that the choice they made was risky, and those risks can be exploited by randomness, by the timing of events we can’t control. Whether it’s bad luck that the delta variant came up at all, or good luck that the delta variant didn’t arise a month earlier, is actually quite tough to say. That’s the challenge with making decisions like that in such a tricky environment full of unknowns. I personally still wish the scientists were more transparent about those risks but I understand the more paternalistic choice.
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Fauci may be speaking too soon. Delta variant on the up and up in the US too now.
It does look like it took off quicker in the UK than everywhere else and that’s more than likely due to combination of a lot more AZ than other countries, plus the extended dosing of mRNA vaccines. But only time will tell if the upside of that strategy (earlier reopening) is outweighed by a really serious surge of hospitalisations. So far it looks like they might just dodge that bullet.
Delta also getting a foothold in Israel. 100% Pfizer vaccine, given exactly as per license.
They’ve been great with their vaccination programme but there’s no escaping the fact that America has a serious issue with antivaxxers so it doesn’t matter what vaccine you’re rolling out if there is people that remain unvaccinated.
It feels like it’s just a matter of time before we get the next mutation which is vaccine resistant and we are back to step 1.
Yeah Fauci said he still worries about the variant and a third wave, but localised in areas with high levels of vaccine hesitancy. He entirely expects it to take hold eventually, he was just commenting on why he thinks it hasn’t followed the same trajectory at this point. Part of that is just due to the randomness of where the variant took hold but it does seem plausible that the mRNA vaccines helped blunt that growth more effectively than the UK. Could be part of the explanation in Europe too. It won’t prevent it but it might have slowed it down by cutting off some of those pathways in a way it didn’t in the UK. Although obviously there were just more entry points in the UK too.
The big issue in America is how patchy it is. Some stats have super high vaccination rates. Others very low. With complete freedom of movement between states they could be in for a rough few months.
We’re kind of at that stage now. Delta is definitely vaccine resistant. I don’t think the virus can keep getting more and more vaccine resistant indefinitely, without getting less good at infecting people. Ultimately there has to be some kind of trade off. Although there are probably a few more, nastier iterations to deal with before we get there.
There's not really a problem with AZ based on the stats collated so far. Protection against any symptomatic disease after one shot is around 30%, but goes to 70%+ after AZ second shot, 85%+ for Pfizer second shot. Protection against hospitalisation is higher again.
The timing was unlucky for the UK. Pubs etc reopening, just as multiple seed cases of Delta took root in low vaccination/high housing density areas. It is a race between the vaccine and the virus - fortunately it's still a race that the vaccines win, if you can get it in arms far enough.
The US have a different set of issues, with low vaccine take-up in some areas. But spread is so dependant on local conditions - housing, types of work etc - that they may be lucky with that.
And
The timing was unlucky for the UK. Pubs etc reopening, just as multiple seed cases of Delta took root in low vaccination/high housing density areas. It is a race between the vaccine and the virus - fortunately it's still a race that the vaccines win, if you can get it in arms far enough.
The US have a different set of issues, with low vaccine take-up in some areas. But spread is so dependant on local conditions - housing, types of work etc - that they may be lucky with that.
And
That's my biggest fear at the moment. It would be absolutely devastating to start from the beginning. Hopefully vaccines are able to prevent dangerous cases and deaths to an extent where normal life is possible, even with mutations.
Is Delta vaccine resistant? I thought vaccines would prevent cases and more so dangerous cases by quite a high number. Does it still fall under the "resistance" category? I know it's just terminology and I am a layman, but "resistant" sounds very harsh to me.
There's not really a problem with AZ based on the stats collated so far. Protection against any symptomatic disease after one shot is around 30%, but goes to 70%+ after AZ second shot, 85%+ for Pfizer second shot. Protection against hospitalisation is higher again.
The timing was unlucky for the UK. Pubs etc reopening, just as multiple seed cases of Delta took root in low vaccination/high housing density areas. It is a race between the vaccine and the virus - fortunately it's still a race that the vaccines win, if you can get it in arms far enough.
The US have a different set of issues, with low vaccine take-up in some areas. But spread is so dependant on local conditions - housing, types of work etc - that they may be lucky with that.
And
There’s no issue with the AZ vaccine after two doses, but the point is for most of the time the Delta variant has been about, most vaccinated people are single vaccinated and for quite a few weeks. In part because of AZ’s recommended dosing schedules and in part because of the UK strategy.
Whereas for Pfizer, it’s slightly more effective against the variant itself, and the dosing schedule is much more conservative. So better + more conservative = lower risk of this happening. Not the definitive factor but it seemed a plausible explanatory factor that didn’t seem to get much discussion. The one thing I wasn’t sure about was how effective the mRNA vaccines are against the variant after 1 dose. Fauci seemed quite confident they played a role there too, better than 30%, but evidence seemed sparse on that.
Resistant meaning vaccines are less effective against this new variant than they are against the variants they were originally tested on. Which definitely seems to be the case.
The single dose thing was/is important, but the UK has been tactically different in other ways as well. The focus has massively been on age/risk groups with a strict pattern of invitations.
The US went with multiple priority types age/job etc. Vaccine hesitancy has actually played a part in opening up their booking system to anyone/any age much sooner than was possible in the UK. They've got a bigger proportion of their under 30s vaccinated than the UK for example but a smaller proportion of their over 50s. Delta has spread massively in the UK under 30s.
Wales is an interesting one in that they've seen the case numbers rise more slowly, partly because they followed a different tactic. They effectively ran two booking lists - a Pfizer (under 40) one and an AZ one, and they used their AZ stock to do second doses earlier. It's hard to tell what comes down to the tactics, what's about their lockdown controls, what's about seed cases - but people are keeping an eye on how their stats move.
Yes. Resistant in german - generally speaking - means having no effect at all, so I was wondering whether I didn't understand something or the understanding is different. Thank you.
Yeah good point, the less cautious younger folks would be driving the spread everywhere, but they skipped the queue in the US because of the vaccine hesitancy, and then they could afford to be a bit less patient because of the shorter dosing intervals. Doesn’t explain it all but could explain some!
More data coming in on adverse reactions following the mRNA vaccines and myocarditis (heart inflammation - usual symptom chest pain/tightness). Mostly it looks like it affects young men. Incidentally, myocarditis is also a problem if you catch covid.
Most of the cases are quickly resolved. Overall the CDC says the evidence is still strong advice to get the vaccine. That said, personally, I'm not that comfortable with those results for 12-17 year olds and I do wonder if they'll look at revising the dose for some of that group.
Most of the cases are quickly resolved. Overall the CDC says the evidence is still strong advice to get the vaccine. That said, personally, I'm not that comfortable with those results for 12-17 year olds and I do wonder if they'll look at revising the dose for some of that group.
Hard to form an opinion as a layman, does the myocarditis have long-term effects on health and fitness or is it a case of treatment and then back to normal?More data coming in on adverse reactions following the mRNA vaccines and myocarditis (heart inflammation - usual symptom chest pain/tightness). Mostly it looks like it affects young men. Incidentally, myocarditis is also a problem if you catch covid.
Most of the cases are quickly resolved. Overall the CDC says the evidence is still strong advice to get the vaccine. That said, personally, I'm not that comfortable with those results for 12-17 year olds and I do wonder if they'll look at revising the dose for some of that group.
I know someone who had it about 2 years ago from a viral infection and was off work for around 3 months so to reduce stress on the heart. He's still in a category which meant he got the vaccines early as he was considered a high risk if he got Covid-19.
Day to day he's OK after 2 years but can't play football or be overly active and he still has to be careful, so it can definitely be longer term. I think he's expected to make a full recovery as the heart muscles recover though.
In comparison to the risks of Covid, I'm pretty sure that he'd take the small risk of the vaccine and going through it all again over not taking it though.
so do people with no health insurance get left to suffer in the USA?
Nope, the vaccine roll out is a federally funded programme.
are we in for a few more lock downs in your opinion?
so what about anti vaxxers that get Covid and have no insurance?
I don’t think so. Definitely possible but my money would be on the final stages of reopening being pushed out rather than any backwards steps.
How’s the arm?
The cases reported so far have been resolved within a few days, sometimes with corticosteroids, sometimes without. That said, almost inevitably some people will suffer more than others from a problem like this. The CDC say there are currently around 9 people in hospital and 2 in ICU because of it.
Comparing it to covid, research scanning the hearts of college students suggests that as many as 15% of young men have signs of heart inflammation after positive tests (even if they weren't particularly ill).
Those studies led to a general warning against hard exercise for a couple of weeks after a positive test - even if you feel ok.
I wonder if we might need to give the same advice for the first couple of days after a covid jab? The symptoms appear quite early with this problem - within the first 3-5 days.
According to the data presented today the myocarditis after the vaccine is a lot milder/shorter lasting than post viral myocarditis. Still inconvenient though (might have to avoid exercise for 2 or 3 months afterwards) . A price worth paying for anyone who might have a bad outcome from covid. A much trickier decision for teenagers.
The cases reported so far have been resolved within a few days, sometimes with corticosteroids, sometimes without. That said, almost inevitably some people will suffer more than others from a problem like this. The CDC say there are currently around 9 people in hospital and 2 in ICU because of it.
Comparing it to covid, research scanning the hearts of college students suggests that as many as 15% of young men have signs of heart inflammation after positive tests (even if they weren't particularly ill).
Those studies led to a general warning against hard exercise for a couple of weeks after a positive test - even if you feel ok.
I wonder if we might need to give the same advice for the first couple of days after a covid jab? The symptoms appear quite early with this problem - within the first 3-5 days.
You’d have to assume it’s being massively underdiagnosed amongst those who have covid. When you feel like shit, constantly coughing, aching all over, then the sort of relatively minor symptoms that got the post-vaccination cases diagnosed would often be overlooked.
This variant talk is so hard to keep up with, one website calls the variant very worrying and the next story I read tells me the Silverstone is gearing up for a 140k crowd and the GP.
its ok now , the injection site feels like its on fire all the same but thankfully that pain is gone in the main.
Cool. I’m getting my second dose on Monday. Reckon karma’s gonna bite me in the arse for posting that picture of the man up pills!
Thanks for the replies all. Am I reading it right that young men should be advised to avoid hard exercise for a couple of weeks after vaccination? It will be a tricky one to get right if so, needing to warn them of a risk, but not putting them off vaccination, and not putting off those in other age/sex categories just looking for an anti-vax excuse anyway.
Sorry misunderstood your question. Vaccine is free.
My brother (39) and sister in law (40) in Dublin have both got COVID now, both booked in to get vaccinated this week. Both run businesses which have to close for two weeks. feck this virus.
I didnt even notice it. I was too busy being an owlone
They will get billed by the hospital if they need treating. Same as any other illness.
Finally had my first jab of pfizer today at 9AM
Not a single hint of side effects or sore arm so far.
Not a single hint of side effects or sore arm so far.
I was thinking more for those people that experience that kind of general rundown, fatigue feeling the first day after the jab. It might be that if you're feeling rough, you're better off sitting it out for a day or so rather than running it off
The FDA will be adding a warning to the patient information so people know what to look out for.
No, I would totally agree with this. Had a quick look at the autopsy report as well and it doesn't say what the author is saying in the slightest. Weird take with an agenda!
Had my second AZ jab yesterday (I'm only 30 FYI, as most AZ takers seem to be 40+).
I got hit so hard after the 1st one, honestly felt like the worst hangover I'd ever had, and was a bit nervous about the same happening after this one.
Took a paracetamol before bed as a precaution, but luckily it looks like it's nowhere near as bad, after ~18 hours, just slightly fatigued and a very minor headache.
So seems like the theory of only one of the jabs hitting hard holds true! From friends experiences, seems like Pfizer hits harder the 2nd time around, whilst AZ is the 1st.
I got hit so hard after the 1st one, honestly felt like the worst hangover I'd ever had, and was a bit nervous about the same happening after this one.
Took a paracetamol before bed as a precaution, but luckily it looks like it's nowhere near as bad, after ~18 hours, just slightly fatigued and a very minor headache.
So seems like the theory of only one of the jabs hitting hard holds true! From friends experiences, seems like Pfizer hits harder the 2nd time around, whilst AZ is the 1st.
I just got vaccinated, the Janssen.