Storeytime

Unfortunately we've got a relatively hard run-in, just need to get Mike '2pen' Jones to ref a few of our games.
 
He's been very good in giving four pens in a row (3 correct except Valencia diving after minimal contact) and not giving Evra since it would have been too much.
 
Storeytime24.jpg


City +7
United +6
Spurs -4
Lpool -5
Arse -12
Chelsea -13

Would have been ahead had we won, but still a positive result. Currently forecasted for 87 points and that is assuming we lose against Spurs and City.

Big game tomorrow for Liverpool and Spurs in their respective seasons. The 'Storey' system has predicted for a while that Liverpool are looking strong for 4th place and a win tomorrow would be a step towards the real table reflecting the Storey table. For Spurs it has been forecasting that they will fall short of the front two in the long run and a win tomorrow is necessary to prove otherwise.
 
Newcastle are -7 based on the initial seeding.

This puts 'em 5th and if Spurs tie or win at Anfield, it puts 'em 4th.

Mind you, the initial seedings are proving erroneous now - Swansea away is NOT a guaranteed win for anyone. Norwich have shown their mettle too.
 
w'or bobby said:
Newcastle are -7 based on the initial seeding.

This puts 'em 5th and if Spurs tie or win at Anfield, it puts 'em 4th.

Mind you, the initial seedings are proving erroneous now - Swansea away is NOT a guaranteed win for anyone. Norwich have shown their mettle too.
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Yeah I think in hindsight Norwich and Swansea should have been in the middle tier and maybe Wolves and Bolton as part of the bottom 5. We have to go to Norwich next week and I think it's one of the trickiest fixtures we have left. City still have to go to Swansea.

Interesting to see Newcastle doing so well, although I think their 'par' score would be less than 81 points as they would be expected to lose against all of the top 6 whilst the teams in the top 6 would obviously only be expected to lose 5.

Their par for the season would be 80 pts so a -7 means they are on course for 73 which still has them above Arsenal and Chelsea at this stage.
 
The White Pele said:
Yeah I think in hindsight Norwich and Swansea should have been in the middle tier and maybe Wolves and Bolton as part of the bottom 5. We have to go to Norwich next week and I think it's one of the trickiest fixtures we have left. City still have to go to Swansea.

Interesting to see Newcastle doing so well, although I think their 'par' score would be less than 81 points as they would be expected to lose against all of the top 6 whilst the teams in the top 6 would obviously only be expected to lose 5.

Their par for the season would be 80 pts so a -7 means they are on course for 73 which still has them above Arsenal and Chelsea at this stage.
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And level with the Dippers so far.
Wouldn't mind seeing that at all.

Might recalculate w Swansea and Norwich no longer bottom 5 but correctly weighted.
We ARE the only team to win at Swansea.
Norwich, as you say may be as nasty an away fixture as any we have left, including White Hart Lane and Citeh.
 
O.K.
So I recalculate this thing with a different seeding to reflect actual league performance as opposed to Pete's initial seeding:

Swansea and Norwich are considered mid-table and Wolves and Bolton replace them as cannon-fodder.

Otherwise, Pete's seedings remain.

We get:

United +6
Citeh +5
Spurs -2
Dippers -9
Toon -11
Arse -11
Chava -13

If we emerge from February in striking distance, gonna be an interesting run-in.
4th is going to be murder.
 
Nice. I think 6 points from the next 3 games (Liverpool, Norwich, Spurs) would set us up nicely to retain the title. That would be par on the old scoring system and +2 on the new one.
 
w'or bobby said:
O.K.
So I recalculate this thing with a different seeding to reflect actual league performance as opposed to Pete's initial seeding:

Swansea and Norwich are considered mid-table and Wolves and Bolton replace them as cannon-fodder.

Otherwise, Pete's seedings remain.

We get:

United +6
Citeh +5
Spurs -2
Dippers -9
Toon -11
Arse -11
Chava -13

If we emerge from February in striking distance, gonna be an interesting run-in.
4th is going to be murder.
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The updated table, with original seedings:
City +7
United +6
Spurs -1
Lpool -8
Arse -12
Chelsea -13

Not terrible different, tbh. The largest discrepancy is city, with 2 points less in your system. Think that suggests the original system is quite solid.
 
Plechazunga said:
Nice work guys

If you can rig it, I mean tweak it, a bit more, some sort of cushion over Citeh would be nice
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George W. is unemployed at the moment.
The hanging chads part of his c.v. impresses.
Or Bebe Doc might consider an overseas contract if not detained by domestic concerns.
 
After the weekend:

Per Pete's seeding, as on page one of the thread -

City +9
United +6
Spurs -1
Liverpool -8
Arsenal -10
Chelsea -14
Newcastle - 17

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5
(reflecting 2/3 of the season and not predictions and prejudice):

City +7
United +6
Spurs -2
Liverpool -9
Arsenal -9
Newcastle - 11
Chelsea -14

Looks like Thierry Henri scored a very important goal.
 
After this weeks games, per original seeding


Storeytime26.jpg

Par is 81 pts

City +9
United +6
Spurs -3
Lpool -7
Arsenal -10
Chelsea -14

Title race, forecasted results for next 5 games

United:
Spurs (A) L
WBA (H) W
Wolves (A) D
Fulham (H) W
Blackburn (A) W
Total: 10 points

City:
Bolton (H) W
Swansea (A) W
Chelsea (H) W
Stoke (A) D
Sunderland (H) W
Total: 13 points

Forecast after 31 games:
City 76pts
United 71pts

Personally I think City will do well to get 13 points out of their games and we should be aiming for at least 12 from ours.
 
After Norwich away

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5
(reflecting 2/3 of the season and not predictions and prejudice):


United +8
City +7
Spurs -2
Liverpool -9
Arsenal -9
Newcastle - 13
Chelsea -14
 
Storeytime27.jpg


meh.ro3348.jpg


United +9
City +9
Spurs -6
Arsenal -7
LPool -10
Chelsea -15

Par is 81 points

Next 5 games:

United:
West Brom H
Wolves A
Fulham H
Blackburn A
QPR H
Forecast: 13 pts

City:
Swansea A
Chelsea H
Stoke A
Sunderland H
Arsenal A
Forecast: 10 pts

We really need to hammer it home over the next 5 games.
 
After Spurs away

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5
(reflecting 2/3 of the season and not predictions and prejudice):


United +11
City +7
Spurs -5
Arsenal -6
Liverpool -12
Newcastle - 15
Chelsea -15
 
crappycraperson said:
Amazing how according to this, Pool still have a more than fair chance for fourth when in reality they are done.
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TBH, they should do well in the next 10 fixtures, on paper. In practice, they overachieve against the tougher opponents and underperform in the supposedly easy games so those 10 fixtures may turn out to be very hard for them :smirk:
 
After West Brom home:

with Arsenal and Newcastle still to play,
Liverpool and Everton still to play.

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5
(reflecting 2/3 of the season and not predictions and prejudice):


United +11
City +6
Spurs -6
Arsenal -6
Liverpool -13
Newcastle - 15
Chelsea -15
 
crappycraperson said:
Amazing how according to this, Pool still have a more than fair chance for fourth when in reality they are done.
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Look at the alternative weighting:

7 points out.

They are done.

Good job Kenny is unsackable after winning the Carling Cup.
Hope he wastes another 50 mill this summer.
 
After West Brom home, after Arsenal- Newcastle game,

after Liverpool and Everton:

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5
(reflecting 2/3 of the season and not predictions and prejudice):


United +11
City +6
Spurs -6
Arsenal -6
Liverpool -13
Newcastle - 15
Chelsea -15
 
As of end of round 29
after City - Chelsea, Everton - Arsenal, Spurs - Stoke, QPR - Dippers

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5
(reflecting 2/3 of the season and not predictions and prejudice):


United +11
City +6
Arsenal -4
Spurs -8
Newcastle - 15
Chelsea -15
Liverpool -16
 
Irwinwastheking said:
How come I never seen this before?
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Only tends to get updated after games - disappears from view quickly after.
Discussions about Ronaldo, Messi, Ravel and Tevez tend to shunt it off the first page.
There is considerable merit, however, in a table that reflects the actual difficulty of games played since the schedule can make the table lie, at least early on in a season.

I'm tabulating a variant on the initial stab by resident Arse, Peter Storey, since the initial weightings were out somewhat (Norwich and Swansea.)
 
As of end of Saturday, March 24th

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5
(reflecting 2/3 of the season and not predictions and prejudice):


United +11
City +6
Arsenal -4
Spurs -7
Newcastle - 15
Chelsea -17
Liverpool -19
 
w'or bobby said:
As of end of Saturday, March 24th

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5
(reflecting 2/3 of the season and not predictions and prejudice):


United +11
City +6
Arsenal -4
Spurs -7
Newcastle - 15
Chelsea -17
Liverpool -19
Click to expand...

Hey, works really well. Liverpool 30 points behind United is a very close representation of the real table!
 
If you'd told me we'd lose Vidic after some 6 games and have the other injury problems we've had, I'd have said it would be impossible to be +11 above last season in points.
 
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