Storeytime

As of Sunday, March 25th

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5
(reflecting 2/3 of the season and not predictions and prejudice):


United +11
City +6
Arsenal -4
Spurs -7
Newcastle - 13
Chelsea -17
Liverpool -19
 
As of Monday, March 26th

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5 :


United +11
City +6
Arsenal -4
Spurs -7
Newcastle - 13
Chelsea -17
Liverpool -19
 
How did Newcastle go from -13 to -15 despite winning at the weekend?
 
As of Monday, March 26th

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5 :


United +11
City +6
Arsenal -4
Spurs -7
Newcastle - 13
Chelsea -17
Liverpool -19
 
As of Saturday, March 31st

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5 :


United +11
City +4
Arsenal -7
Spurs -7
Newcastle - 13
Chelsea -15
Liverpool -19
 
As of Sunday, April 1st

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5 :


United +11
City +4
Arsenal -7
Spurs -7
Newcastle - 13
Chelsea -15
Liverpool -20
 
Our next two games if we drop any points we lose out on the storeytable while City if they get anything from the game at Emirates it's a bonus. So here's to it going as the table would expect.
 
Would someone put it in the graph format, want to see if it is as pronounced as the potential change in the points difference between the two sides
 
So in Storeytime City have to beat us at the Etihad and they have to make up another 7 points on top of that.
 
surf said:
So in Storeytime City have to beat us at the Etihad and they have to make up another 7 points on top of that.
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Yes, if you go with the revised Storeytime with Swansea and Norwich rated higher.

But by this stage of the season Storey doesn't tell us much we don't already know: City have to win away against Arsenal and Swansea, United have to win all our bankers.

One thing that Storey doesn't take into account is playing the worst teams when they're in the last weeks and oblivion/salvation is tangible to them. And that is what could yet scupper us.
 
Snow said:
Need to add Everton as well.
Click to expand...

Not with the run-in they have.

Could drop the Dippers too.
They could finish 13th at this rate ( heh heh)

In fact, perhaps it would be more accurate to remove the Dippers and substitute the Barcodes in the top 6?

Haven't got the time right now but I might look at it.

Anyways, with 7-8 games to go, the actual table and the Storeytime table start to converge.

And as Plech said, this doesn't factor in taking on desperate teams whose survival is in the balance - as for instance tomorrow with Blackburn.

Nor does it factor in the whole experience/nerves/been-there and done it thing that Fergie has got in spades .

Of course the wild card roll of the dice that produced Macheda's goal against Villa is the kind of unpredictable variable that screws with all this rationality.
Drogba's offside goal.
Ole's toe poke.

Football. bloody hell.
 
As of Monday, April 2nd

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5 :


United +11
City +4
Arsenal -7
Spurs -7
Newcastle - 13
Chelsea -15
Liverpool -20
 
As of Friday, April 6th

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5 :


United +11
City +4
Arsenal -7
Spurs -7
Newcastle - 11
Chelsea -15
Liverpool -20
 
As of Saturday, April 7th

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5 :

As you were, but for the continued ignominious fall (one can hardly say from grace) of the Dippers.


United +11
City +4
Arsenal -7
Spurs -7
Newcastle - 11
Chelsea -15
Liverpool -22
 
Newcastle are on 56 points, and they had 46 points last season. How can they be -11, if I understand the scoring?

Is the system to look at whether they beat the team in the same last season in the same fixtures? IIRC that's how Storeytime used to work.

Looking again it seems to be based on where teams finished last season, but still, I don't see how they could be -11 with more points.
 
That's not how the Storeytime system works. Look at the OP to get more of an understanding.
 
Oh, that's way different that I remember. Sorry, should have just read the OP first.

I like the way I was imagining better! It would give you an idea of improvement from year to year.
 
gooDevil said:
Oh, that's way different that I remember. Sorry, should have just read the OP first.

I like the way I was imagining better! It would give you an idea of improvement from year to year.
Click to expand...

The objective of the table is to portray a more accurate real points difference between teams based on the quality of opposition played this season.

It has absolutely nothing to do with last year's performance, progress that a team has made, etc. Someone can create a different table for that, but this table is perfect just the way it is.
 
As of Sunday, April 8th

Alternative seeding with Norwich and Swansea considered mid-table and replaced by Bolton and Wolves in the bottom 5 :

The only real anomaly is the points difference between Newcastle and Chelsea, reflecting their respective run-ins AND the fact that their par should be 1 point lower (they were not top six for weighting purposes.)

United +11
City +4
Arsenal -7
Spurs -7
Newcastle - 11
Chelsea -15
Liverpool -22
 
Ace said:
We need an updated line chart.
Click to expand...

Storeytime32.jpg


Updated for the old scoring system.

Will have a go at updating for the new scoring system with Swansea and Norwich midtable when I get time.
 
Ok so this is the updated graph with Norwich and Swansea midtable and Newcastle in the top 6. Liverpool are still included but start on -1 since their par is now only 80 points.

Storeytime32v2-1.jpg


Par is 81 points
The scores are:
United +11
City +3
Arsenal -6
Spurs -6
Newcastle -12
Chelsea -14
Liverpool -24

Interestingly, this method shows that City lost control of the title race when they lost at Goodison Park in game 23.

It also shows that they have only had 3 "great" results this season - Spurs away, United away and Villa away have been their only above par results.
After they defeated us in game 9, they enjoyed what was perceived as a spell of good form but, in truth, they were just picking up the results expected of them. Meanwhile United who were perceived to be struggling were picking up some important away wins and actually closing the gap. Our run of form between game 21 and 27, winning away at Arsenal, Spurs and Norwich and getting a point at Stamford Bridge looks to have proven decisive in the title race.

Spurs were close to us until they dropped points at home to Wolves and then we killed off their challenge when we beat them.

Arsenal have been on course for the top 4 since mid-season.

Chelsea were right in it after 8 games but seemingly never recovered from back-to-back defeats by QPR and Arsenal.

Newcastle started well but from there were never really a huge threat for a top 4 finish.

Liverpool were on course for 79 points after 16 games but in the next 16 games have scored a staggering 23 under par with 10 bum results and no good ones.
 
Number7 said:
:lol: Liverpools line is stunning
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It's bizarre isn't it. As I say, they were actually in good shape about half way through. I have no idea what triggered such a downturn.

It could have been the whole Suarez circus, although they've probably fared worse since he's returned!

Strange to think they've had Gerrard back during this spell aswell.
 
As of Monday, 9th:

Alternative weighting:


United +11
City +3
Arsenal -6
Spurs -9
Newcastle -12
Chelsea -14
Liverpool -24

Remember, Citeh have to beat us at their gaff to maintain par in this alternative universe.
 
Plechazunga said:
:lol: @ Liverpool... that line is a thing of beauty

So yeah the Storey table has at this point converged almost completely with the real table. It's still interesting though seeing the historical lines.
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Eyes of beholders and all that - but in this neck of the woods, the Capella Sistina, Mona Lisa and the Grand Canyon are all in dire straits.

Lead on, MacDuff and damned be him who ... etc.

A bum result at Klanfield domani and my cup will runneth over .
 
Excal said:
Pete always stops this once Arsenal have their inevitable annual failurefest of a spring.
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Didn't see their August offering this season?

He disowns it after we tan 'em 8-2.

But, in truth, he's always reckoned they would finish in the top 4. even as that seemed unlikely from the actual table.

Looking more and more likely.
 
As of Wednesday, 11th April:

Alternative weighting:


United +8
City +3
Arsenal -6
Spurs -9
Newcastle -12
Chelsea -14
Liverpool -24
 
Can someone link me to explanation of this table again?
Arsenal still on -6?
win against bottom team is completely zero points?
 
Trionz said:
Can someone link me to explanation of this table again?
Arsenal still on -6?
win against bottom team is completely zero points?
Click to expand...

It's in the opening post. Teams are expected to win their home games, it's the par score so home sides can only lose against par (if they fail to win)...

It's kind of irrelevant at this time of the season, it's quite interesting in the earlier part of the season as it weights actual results against the perceived strength of the opponents each title hopeful has played. By now the real table is far more interesting... although Liverpool's position vs what you'd expect a title challenging team to have achieved is more than a little amusing!
 
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