Storeytime

Mr. Storey looks to be on the money so far.

What remains to be seen is how Mancini measures up to Fergie in the 2nd half of the season.
We had Rooney, Macheda, Chicharito, Berbatov on at 3-0 up yesterday.
He threw on Dzeko but pulled Aguero.
 
What's going on here then?

I've a horrible feeling that City have stretched their storeytime lead slightly over us.

Meanwhile, Arsenal and Chelsea fall further off the pace while Spurs are going great guns and Liverpool are possibly looking surprisingly good?
 
I can see Spurs "bottling" it in a way, though they'll make top 4, they're not the title challengers people are saying they are.

We'll win the league, City are showing their frailties now and the further the season goes on, the more they'll show them under pressure, which we will most certainly keep them under.

Still think to win the PL we need 90 points, there's nae dewt abou' tha'.

And for some reason I'd still have Arsenal over Chelsea for 4th.
 
Iød be interested to see the storeytime table after tonight's game.
 
I think we lost three points, City lost two and Spurs lost two. Chelsea overall have lost one.

Meaning City would be on 7, we'd be on 3, Spurs -2 and Chelsea -7.

I could be wrong.

EDITED: Spurs = -2, not +2
 
Pogue Mahone said:
If Spurs lost 2, they'd have to be on -2 now.
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Yeah that's right, knew I'd gone wrong somewhere.

Pogue Mahone said:
Why?
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City must win for par, whereas a Liverpool win would see a 6 point switch between the two. Not that they'll be in contention for the same position.

But City must win, we only need a draw for par results, when right now, we're favourites to win, and I'm not the only one who can see Liverpool getting something.
 
City: +8
United: +3
Spurs: -1
Liverpool: -4
Arsenal: -6
Chelsea: -7

I think, but correct me if I'm wrong (obviously deduct any points City drop tonight).
 
The White Pele said:
Storeytime19.jpg


Looking like a two horse race with Spurs comfortably in third.
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Right, that was after all the boxing day games, leaving the NYE/NYD fixtures plus last night's to count.




Arsenal: Beat QPR at home, lost to Fulham away - should've got four points, change: -1, final score: -6

Chelsea: Lost to Villa at home, beat Wolves away - should've got 4 points, change: -1, final score: -7

Liverpool: Beat Newcastle at home - par score, no change, final score: -4.

Man City: Lost to Sunderland away - Should've drawn, change: -1, final score: 8

Man Utd: Lost to Blackburn at home - should've won, change: -3, final score: 3

Spurs: Drew with Swansea away - should've won, change: -2, final score: -2


City: 8
United: 3
Spurs:-2
Liverpool: -4
Arsenal: -6
Chelsea: -7


We can overtake City if they lose and we win. We'd be level if they draw and we win.

Par results: City win, United draw.

I think.
 
After 20 games:

Storeytime20.jpg


City +8
United +2
Spurs -2
Liverpool -4
Arsenal -6
Chelsea -7

Interesting to see Spurs' position, although a quick look at their upcoming fixtures shows that they go away to City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Everton and also play us at home in their next 10 league matches so maybe their current position in the league is slightly flattering.
 
Spurs have some difficult games to play.

Still very open.
 
5 match projection:

City: Wigan(A), Spurs(H), Everton(A), Fulham(H), Villa(A): 11 points
United: Bolton(H), Arsenal(A), Stoke(H), Chelsea(A), Liverpool(H): 9 points
Spurs: Wolves(H), City(A), Wigan(H), Liverpool(A), Newcastle(H): 9 points
Liverpool: Stoke(H), Bolton(A), Wolves(A), Spurs(H), United(A): 8 points
Arsenal: Swansea(A), United(H), Bolton(A), Blackburn(H), Sunderland(A): 11 points
Chelsea: Sunderland(H), Norwich(A), Swansea(A), United(H), Everton(A): 13 points

Giving a table of:

City-----------25--59
United---------25--54
Spurs----------25--54
Chelsea--------25--50
Arsenal--------25--47
Liverpool-------25--42
 
Chelsea's form is shocking, still baffled as to what has made them suddenly turn to shit
 
Sewelly The Geordie said:
Can somebody explain how this works? Sorry if I'm being a thick cnut.
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In short (see first page for actual details if you can be bothered): some games you are expected to win (home and bottom teams), some you would do well to get something out of (top teams, mid-table aways, etc).

If you drop points in the former you drop points (see Blackburn impact, for instance) while winning only keeps you level. If you drop points in the latter you stay level but do earn points for a result.

The idea is it gages how you are doing relative to the quality of opposition you have been facing. That's why City and us are separated by more points than on the actual table (they had tougher fixtures).
 
antohan said:
In short (see first page for actual details if you can be bothered): some games you are expected to win (home and bottom teams), some you would do well to get something out of (top teams, mid-table aways, etc).

If you drop points in the former you drop points (see Blackburn impact, for instance) while winning only keeps you level. If you drop points in the latter you stay level but do earn points for a result.

The idea is it gages how you are doing relative to the quality of opposition you have been facing. That's why City and us are separated by more points than on the actual table (they had tougher fixtures).
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Thanks!

Nice idea.
 
I've done a few more intricate projections based on difficulty of games played and difficult of games remaining. The difficulty ratings are based on the current season (after 20 games).

On the straightforward ones I've done so far, Spurs win the league by about half a point. Shows how good their form is. I've also noticed that us and City have had (pretty much) identical fixture difficulty so far.
 
My new model has these finishing positions:

Code: 
1. Tottenham  | 88.5
2. Man City   | 88.3
3. Man United | 86.7

I haven't done the rest yet. I'll try and post more about the method but I've got other things to do at the moment.

I've also just noticed City haven't won in 4 away games.
 
RK said:
I've done a few more intricate projections based on difficulty of games played and difficult of games remaining. The difficulty ratings are based on the current season (after 20 games).

On the straightforward ones I've done so far, Spurs win the league by about half a point. Shows how good their form is. I've also noticed that us and City have had (pretty much) identical fixture difficulty so far.
Click to expand...
Your system is fecking shit.
 
If everyone plays to the same form for the rest of the season, Spurs will win the league.

Even though we all know that's not going to happen, it doesn't mean the system is shit!
 
RK said:
If everyone plays to the same form for the rest of the season, Spurs will win the league.

Even though we all know that's not going to happen, it doesn't mean the system is shit!
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:wenger:
 
5 match projection:

Code: 
1. Man City   | 61
2. Man United | 55
3. Tottenham  | 55

No chance with City's injuries.
 
Important win for us today. Would have drawn level if Spurs had taken 3 points

Storeytime22.jpg


City +8
United +5
Spurs -4
Liverpool -7
Chelsea -9
Arsenal -12
 
What's the table looking like now?
 
storeytime23.jpg


City +7
United +5
Spurs -4
Liverpool -5
Chelsea -11
Arsenal -12 (yet to play)

The thing that's really interesting to me is the position of Spurs and Liverpool. Spurs are shown to be off the pace in this scoring system and are infact only 1 point ahead of Liverpool, who themselves are clear of their rivals for 4th place. Deceptive.
 
I like the Storeytime table. A lot.
 
5 game projection:

City: Fulham H, Villa A, Blackburn H, Bolton H, Swansea A..........Par: 13 pts
United: Chelsea A, Lpool H, Norwich A, Spurs A, WBA H.............Par: 9 pts
Spurs: Lpool A, Newcastle H, Arsnl A, United H, Everton A..........Par: 7 pts
Lpool: Spurs H, United A, Everton H, Arsenal H, Sunderland A......Par: 10 pts
Chelsea: United H, Everton A, Bolton H, WBA A, Stoke H.............Par: 11 pts
Arsenal: Bolton A, Blackb H, Sund A, Spurs H, Lpool A, Newc H....Par: 11 pts

Forecasted table
City---------28---67
United-------28---63
Spurs--------28---56
Chelsea------28---53
Liverpool-----28---48
Arsenal------28---47

In terms of the title, it's worth remembering that par is 81 pts so currently City are on course for 88 and we are on course for 86. However if we were to get a result at City, say a draw, then we would be on course for 87 and City 86.

Plus, this is assuming we get 0 points from Spurs and Chelsea - anything from these games is therefore a bonus and takes us close to 90 points. We're well placed at this stage I would say.
 
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