So it’s open past 10pm because it’s in the workplace, but you can smoke in there, even though it’s illegal to smoke inside a workplace. That’s even better.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Imran (@Annihilate Now!) are here to discuss three 1-1 draws.
The first got us knocked out of the FA Cup, the next puts us in a good position in our Round of 16 Europa League game, and the latest was an actual decent performance against Arsenal at Old Trafford.
All hopes for the season now rest on the Europa League - does Amorim have the squad to win it?
At the rate places are going into local lockdowns surely it's only a matter of time before there's a national one?
I'd be amazed if pubs are still open in a month
From 6pm today 2/3rds of Wales will be in a “local” lockdown. I’m not entirely convinced that constitutes the definition of local!
It is local because we are not allowed to drive 5 miles into the next area without good reason.
Interesting (slightly counter-intuitive) data from ONS.
It'd be simpler at least. The idea of a 'social lockdown' has been muted again. Two-week closure of pubs/bars/restaurants and a total ban of households meeting.
We weren’t allowed to drive 5 miles during the “National” lockdown except for work so unsure how that makes it local. 1.9m people in Wales are now under strict lockdown rules. You can’t meet another household anywhere indoors. Not even extended bubbles. It isn’t a localised issue is it? It’s a National lockdown with exemptions. They’re only calling them localised lockdowns because they’ve said all along another National one would be a failing and not needed. It’s spin. They’re also yet again doing the worst of both worlds. The hospitality sector is fecked. If you’re a pub/hospitality venue in Cardiff paying those colossal rates NOBODY from outside Cardiff can come to your venue. So yes, technically you’re allowed to open but realistically you’re ruined. There is no additional support for that sector. No targeted furlough just the shitty package the chancellor announced last week which does sod all. On the other side of that we can see from what’s happening in Manchester that these measures aren’t enough like many predicted. The infection rates aren’t slowing. It’s a shit show and we haven’t even got to October yet. Aside from all that happy Monday
Fecking hell.
Glad his test is negative chap, Good news
The second tweet says that they estimated that 40-50% of the region had been infected. Have you not said previously that’s too low for herd immunity anyway?
I don’t think anyone know what’s needed for herd immunity but even well below that threshold you wouldn’t expect a dramatic surge of cases if one in two people was permanently immune after being infected.
The truth of the matter is we can’t be sure on any of it. It’s estimated 40-60% had been infected but that’s just an estimate - what if it was less than 40%? Plenty of room to manoeuvre for the virus there. We’re also guessing that herd immunity kicks in at about 60% and up.
They did have a large drop off though and we already know antibodies last a couple of months in the blood - we don’t know much about ongoing T-cell memory to fight the disease and we also don’t know if the newly infected in this area are the same people, asymptomatic, or what!
very speculative article IMO.
They did have a large drop off though and we already know antibodies last a couple of months in the blood - we don’t know much about ongoing T-cell memory to fight the disease and we also don’t know if the newly infected in this area are the same people, asymptomatic, or what!
very speculative article IMO.
The report on how many had been infected in that region hasn’t been peer reviewed yet and the article contains no figures on anything. Feels like a rush to confirm an opinion to me.
Sure. It’s all very speculative too. But there comes a point when all the data about antibody levels falling away after two or three months, combined with reports of people being infected twice, combined with what’s happening in Manaus does point towards immunity not lasting.
It must be horrendous being a student over the next 2 years. The whole experience of university has been lost and now they are paying bloated fees for no more than online classes. And then to be told you may not be able to come home for Christmas! The whole situation is a farce. Surely it would make more sense to ensure home classes are available in the weeks leading up to Xmas, then ensure students actually self-isolate before they go home.
How many people have actually been confirmed as being infected twice?
Very very few.
It doesn't prove long term immunity, as some reinfections may been missed, but the handful of cases that have been found, even assuming they are genuine reinfections, don't suggest long/medium term immunity from a vaccine is a conncern.
Last edited:
Interesting point on BBC Politics Live earlier by a lady who I think is a former Tory MP, I didn’t catch her name, but she said that she believes the rise of conspiracy theorists in this COVID era has been helped along by this vacuum of scientific data surrounding policy decisions so far. When the government has failed to explain their reasoning for each and every decision and has flip flopped so many times already, trust has been eroded. If the decisions were lead purely by the science and stood by with conviction then people would have more faith in them.
Just me or is that article pretty poorly written?
- In Manaus, daily burials and cremations fell from a peak of 277 on May 1 to just 45 in mid-September, the mayor’s office said. The COVID-19 death toll that officially peaked at 60 on April 30 dropped to just two or three a day by late August.
What does it mean? Deaths from covid + other reasons peaked at 277 and went down to ~50 ..So deaths from causes other than covid were ~200/day.. deaths from Covid went from 60 to ~0 and the daily deaths went down to ~50 .. That doesnt make sense.
- Then in June, deaths unexpectedly plummeted ..
Deaths lag infections by several weeks.. so this implies they supposedly reached that number by May.. But the article then says
- Research posted last week to medRxiv, a website distributing unpublished papers on health science, estimated that 44% to 66% of the Manaus population was infected between the peak in mid-May and August
None up until a few weeks ago. Seem to be popping up in the literature fairly frequently since then. Most recent cases I’ve heard about mentioned here. Bearing in mind the timing that most countries experienced their first wave we’ll probably see a lot more examples from now on.
They’re definitely genuine.
Hospital employees with no symptoms so probably tested regularly. No chance of false positives there? Funnily, that link mentions Manaus with no mention of infection being on the rise just three days ago.
I'm sure some are but some are also quite likely not and may have been the result of either a failure to overcome the original infection or the result of a false positive. Or the result of the original low level infection not producing an immune response. Even if all are reinfections, plus some undetected reinfections, it doesn't seem to be a significant concern to date especially as the immune response from a vaccine will hopefully be stronger.
The only ones I’m calling as definite are when they sequence the virus and prove that the second infection was by a different virus to the first. They all seem to be quite recent.
There’s been a load of other examples of someone testing positive again, weeks after recovering - earlier on in the pandemic - which were assumed to be false positives because of viral debris being shedded even though the active infection had resolved. Now we know for sure that reinfection can happen it does make you wonder about those earlier cases too.
I’m also not sure that a vaccine will trigger a more dramatic immune response than an infection. I always assumed that an infection was the most effective way to trigger an immune response. You don’t see kids needing boosters after they catch chicken pox!
I don’t think false positives are an issue when they sequence the virus, which is what they did here. The fact they’re hospital employees is important though. Because if they weren’t getting regular testing like this they’d never have known they got reinfected. Which is why I think the cases we hear about are the tip of the iceberg.
To be honest, I’m not too worried so long as repeat infections are mild like these. Immunity doesn’t have to be total. If it takes the edge off second and subsequent infections that makes the virus a hell of a lot easier to live with (even though it rules out viral eradication as a strategy).
The Manaus study mentioned here is referenced in the other link I posted. It was the basis for them assuming they might be close to herd immunity. Which the recent surge is calling into question.
Yeah, that’s probably fair enough. I think lessening the effects of the virus would be considered a win.
I'm not sure about that as my mate had chickenpox 3 times (all mild). Admittedly data point = 1(or 3).
I'm sure there are cases of reinfection but with so many infected and a million+ dead it is likely very rare.
And given that asymptomatic/low level symptomstic people may have kicked off the infection without antibodies or T-cells being developed it isn't unexpected that a decent vaccine, especially with a booster shot, may exceed the natural immune reaction. Where this isn't the case it is because the immune response to a natural viral infection is both usual and strong.
Ok. Time to be a bit less doom and gloom. This is an absolute cracker of a Twitter thread on where we are with vaccines. Some of it might be a bit technical if you’re not that way inclined but you skim through to get the gist of what he’s saying. Worth sticking with until the end. Honest. It’s actually kind of optimistic.
Yeah the reinfections confirmed by sequencing are definitely genuine. If they are predominantly asymptomatic the second time then I don't think it is a cause for concern. It is good that the virus has a different name to the disease, because it helps to remember that the former does not always result in the latter. The amount of diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 massievely exceeds any other that for any other infectious agent ever. Would be interesting to see how frequently this happens with other viruses.
As you say, too early to panic. If we start to get singificant numbers of people developing severe COVID-19 twice that wouldn't be great. Even then, immune responses elicited by a vaccine can be controlled through design, whereas natural infections can’t. Given time I think we will get there on an effective vaccine, although the longer it takes the more fecked up the world will get. Also what “an effective vaccine” means is a whole other question. Reinfection probably rules out erradication by a sterilising vaccine (although was it ever realstic, we have only eliminated smallpox and nearly polio). Given that people with lower viral loads are less likely to spread the virus, a protective vaccine that reduces viral load could still mitigate (although not stop) spread, which would be a massive help if enough people got it.
Some interesting stats on the impact of schools opening:
Strange for this to be announced for the North East ahead of the North West.
UK 4044 cases and 13 deaths.
Note it's Monday and usually much lower than other days
There's a bit of a brief run down in this link as well for spike (S) protein and what various vaccines do.
https://www.sinobiological.com/research/virus/hcov-spike-protein-overview
Seems they'll be something good coming to mitigate the virus.
Note it's Monday and usually much lower than other days
There's a bit of a brief run down in this link as well for spike (S) protein and what various vaccines do.
https://www.sinobiological.com/research/virus/hcov-spike-protein-overview
Seems they'll be something good coming to mitigate the virus.
Great read there, takes a bit of patience love the guys enthusiasm for his field.
Yeah, hats off to him. Not often you read a two glasses of wine Twitter thread!
We’ve come a long way from clapping at our front door.
These laws are passing without parliamentary scrutiny.
Is it now illegal to sing or dance? Ha!
There will be allsorts being passed under the radar at the moment. All the shit they've ever wanted but people have always realised and kicked up a stink, they just come out with that much shit each day nobody can keep up with it now.
Suppose it's just another attempt to deter people before pulling the trigger on more restrictions - forcing businesses to close again looks to be a case of when not if.