SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Rajma said:
Just wanted to say what a bunch of cretins are sitting at WHO still not calling it a pandemic. Corrupt to its core.
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It's a pandemic.

There.

What difference does that make?

Individual countries enact protocol by their own definitions. I don't get what the big deal is with the WHO sticking to their own definitions and not declaring a pandemic until it reaches their own parameters.
 
langster said:
It's a pandemic.

There.

What difference does that make?

Individual countries enact protocol by their own definitions. I don't get what the big deal is with the WHO sticking to their own definitions and not declaring a pandemic until it reaches their own parameters.
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It would make difference in countries that are not yet dealing with this in large numbers giving governments more ammunition to act proactively.
 
Heardy said:
Any idea how quick symptoms are meant to show? I saw him Monday morning and I feel perfectly fine now.

I hate the hysteria going around and don’t want to add to it, but there appears to be a lack of info and people just scaring the shit out of each other on Twitter etc.
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My guidance was 14 days. Weirdly enough my girlfriend is also in self isolation because she's a doctor in A+E where she had involvement in the treatment of a patient. She also tested negative but the hospital have said to her that she should remain off work till the end of the 14 day period.
 
van der star said:
About a fourth of the population here in my city are students at the university and pretty much all of them come from all over Italy, I reckon they're all trying to get back home to their families while they still can. This is also a commuter city where people spend weekdays attending school/university/working and go home over weekends so I guess everyone that's basically not from this city is leaving right now.
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I haven't noticed people trying to get out here but I am not too bothered if it happens. The less people here the less likely it is to keep spreading.

Just my opinion but the government should have locked down places like Bergamo a week ago and enforced restrictions much more heavily; Italians dont do well at following rules.
 
Arruda said:
Imagine how quicly some of these systems can be overwhelmed in an epodemic. A large ICU with a significant number of doctors and nurses needing quarantine at the same time will have difficulty replacing them with doctors who are ready to provide the same standard of care, for example.

I have friends involved on this, who are working in hospitals with zero or one cases, and are tired just of the preparation.
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From whst I have read there seems to be a need to hospitalise 7-10% of those who catch it. Of those 5% go on to need an ICU bed. Even ignoring the fact that ICU facilities may already be heavily used it wouldn't take much to overwhelm our medical facilities.

I did the ballpark calculations for here (Australia) and if 1.5% of the population gets this at the same time that uses up 100% of ICU capacity (assuming 50% is already used - a conservative figure). Of course not all these beds are free (occupany seems to be 50-95% most of the time) and once at full capacity the rate beds are freed up by recovery or death can't exceed demand without us being overwhelmed.

Very concerning.
 
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Dante said:
Feck me. 3000 in intensive care!
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Right, so 1/6 will need intensive care? Is that a disproportionate number of elderly?

On one hand people are saying don't panic and then reports like this. So much disinformation and bullshit. It's really hard to know what to believe or not.

Then this is circulating on Facebook and getting loads of respect for being a supposed voice of sanity.. ... ..


.
I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even
imagine?

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.
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So which is it?
 
langster said:
Right, so 1/6 will need intensive care? Is that a disproportionate number of elderly?

On one hand people are saying don't panic and then reports like this. So much disinformation and bullshit. It's really hard to know what to believe or not.

Then this is circulating on Facebook and getting loads of respect for being a supposed voice of sanity.. ... ..




So which is it?
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I quoted that Facebook post a few pages back because I was curious what @Arruda thought of it.

He like me, thought it was silly and irresponsible. This situation must not be seen as business as usual. At the same time though, panic is pointless, we need to be reasonable, sensible and decisive rather than doom mongering.

The outlook is serious, yes but that doesn't mean we can't still get on top of the situation and get new infection levels down to an acceptable level (Singapore was one of the first countries outside of China affected, and with good public education and robust measures, they're now at ~5% increase in cases daily)

Panic and fear mongering are never helpful, nor are some of the doomsday relishers who just love to be the first to post all the worst case scenarios.

There's still a chance to get a handle on this. Worse case is not locked in. But that situation with 16 million in Italy effectively quarantined is a pretty good indication that this situation is not business is usual.
 
Jacko21 said:
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This is why China built new hospitals in 48 hours. They didn't do it just to show off - they desperately needed the additional capacity.

We've had weeks to prepare in the west, and we've basically done nothing. Shameful.
 
17 Van der Gouw said:
I quoted that Facebook post a few pages back because I was curious what @Arruda thought of it.

He like me, thought it was silly and irresponsible. This situation must not be seen as business as usual. At the same time though, panic is pointless, we need to be reasonable, sensible and decisive rather than doom mongering.

The outlook is serious, yes but that doesn't mean we can't still get on top of the situation and get new infection levels down to an acceptable level (Singapore was one of the first countries outside of China affected, and with good public education and robust measures, they're now at ~5% increase in cases daily)

Panic and fear mongering are never helpful, nor are some of the doomsday relishers who just love to be the first to post all the worst case scenarios.

There's still a chance to get a handle on this. Worse case is not locked in. But that situation with 16 million in Italy effectively quarantined is a pretty good indication that this situation is not business is usual.
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That's my thoughts too. However parts of that post may be irresponsible, but lots are very true. The panic buying and affect on others is exceptionally pertinent. As is the fact most of us will see this virus first hand.

I think the media are far more irresponsible tbh. I also think world leaders need to be more honest. Boris and Trump especially are being very flippant and almost uncaring about it all.
 
langster said:
Right, so 1/6 will need intensive care? Is that a disproportionate number of elderly?

On one hand people are saying don't panic and then reports like this. So much disinformation and bullshit. It's really hard to know what to believe or not.

Then this is circulating on Facebook and getting loads of respect for being a supposed voice of sanity.. ... ..




So which is it?
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I'm not panicking for my own safety. I obviously don't want to get ill per se, but I'm healthy enough that the odds are in my favour.

But by the same token, I don't want the disease to spread. Because if it does, a lot of vulnerable people will die and the NHS will be stretched to breaking point.

There are two sides to the equation. One is concern for myself and the other is concern for the public good. It's possible to judge the two sides separately and come up with different conclusions without them necessarily contradicting each other.

By way of analogy, I'm not worried about eating peanuts. But that doesn't mean I want people with allergies to suffer reactions because of poor labelling and/or food hygiene. I support the latter because it's the right thing to do, even though I gain no personal benefit.

It's right for me not to panic, but it's also right to have serious concerns.
 
langster said:
Right, so 1/6 will need intensive care? Is that a disproportionate number of elderly?

On one hand people are saying don't panic and then reports like this. So much disinformation and bullshit. It's really hard to know what to believe or not.

Then this is circulating on Facebook and getting loads of respect for being a supposed voice of sanity.. ... ..




So which is it?
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Well one is just an opinion based on nothing and the other is a fact. We've four posters here describing the situation based on facts and looks like parts of Italy are about to descend into chaos. Chaos which was present in China a few weeks back. My colleague was in Hong Kong when this broke out and she said it was horrible. No one was allowed out. Yet a vast majority of people want to believe that this isn't actually happening. Just because a lot of us are safe doesnt mean there are millions (billions) of people not suffering out there.

This isn't a movie. This is definitely real life. I hope that the rest of the world gets through unscathed. I wish Italy the best and hope they can rally through this.

I'm not trying to induce panic. But if this can happen in Italy so quick, whats stopping the same happening elsewhere?
 
Complete conjecture here from me so apologies if stupid or offensive.

Could the Mediterranean tradition of often kissing each other as a greeting have increased the spread of the virus?

I'm fairly sure in Italy it's commonplace for both genders to kiss each other frequently.

Or correct me if I'm wrong?
 
17 Van der Gouw said:
Complete conjecture here from me so apologies if stupid or offensive.

Could the Mediterranean tradition of often kissing each other as a greeting have increased the spread of the virus?

I'm fairly sure in Italy it's commonplace for both genders to kiss each other frequently.

Or correct me if I'm wrong?
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Mostly shaking your hands (male with male), and kissing (male with female).

Speculation: I think the main reason why it has spread so quickly in Italy is cause Italians socialize more than Germans and other northern Europeans. People go out more, there is a sense of meeting often with friends/family for an aperitivo and so on.

But then, the more south you go, the socialization increases, while the disease seemed to have been spread mostly in the North (Lombardy and Veneto are north, the third most affected region is Emilia Romagna which is center).
 
17 Van der Gouw said:
Complete conjecture here from me so apologies if stupid or offensive.

Could the Mediterranean tradition of often kissing each other as a greeting have increased the spread of the virus?

I'm fairly sure in Italy it's commonplace for both genders to kiss each other frequently.

Or correct me if I'm wrong?
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Probably irrelevant given average age and general vulnerability/infrastructure readiness.
 
17 Van der Gouw said:
Complete conjecture here from me so apologies if stupid or offensive.

Could the Mediterranean tradition of often kissing each other as a greeting have increased the spread of the virus?

I'm fairly sure in Italy it's commonplace for both genders to kiss each other frequently.

Or correct me if I'm wrong?
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Probably. It's the same cultural practice in Iran, for what it's worth (albeit intra-gender rather than inter-gender).

The spread in China is likely to be down to cramped urban living more than anything. And the cruise ships will have provided similar conditions.

None of which is to say that we'll see less spread in northern Europe where kissing is rarer as a greeting. But it could well slow it down.
 
Di Maria's angel said:
Well one is just an opinion based on nothing and the other is a fact. We've four posters here describing the situation based on facts and looks like parts of Italy are about to descend into chaos. Chaos which was present in China a few weeks back. My colleague was in Hong Kong when this broke out and she said it was horrible. No one was allowed out. Yet a vast majority of people want to believe that this isn't actually happening. Just because a lot of us are safe doesnt mean there are millions (billions) of people not suffering out there.

This isn't a movie. This is definitely real life. I hope that the rest of the world gets through unscathed. I wish Italy the best and hope they can rally through this.

I'm not trying to induce panic. But if this can happen in Italy so quick, whats stopping the same happening elsewhere?
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No. I can't take anything you post seriously. It's people like you that are the reason shops have no toilet roll or hand sanitizer and that there is mass fear and hysteria in parts of society.

Yes you have some valid points and genuine concerns, but at the same time you are the far extreme to the likes of those saying do nothing and it's not a real problem.

I think somewhere in the middle is the most sensible and logical answer.

I live 1/2 a mile from the schools where there have been two confirmed cases. That was last week. The student who came back from Italy spent an entire week at school before he showed symptoms and went to goodness knows how many other public places. But there have been NO MORE confirmed cases since last week. The teacher was at school for over a week too and again, no more confirmed cases.

It could very well be that we may see many more in the next few weeks and months, but the point is two people have been confirmed in a very small area and nobody else has symptoms despite both confirmed cases having contact with thousands of people.

Yes we need to be cautious and yes
everyone should be vigilant and yes contingency plans need to be made and ready to implement, but fear mongering and over the top measures are definitely not the way to go.

As I said, the priority is we, the public, need a consistent, honest and 100% accurate update on the virus. We need to know everything and also need to know the plans in place for coping with the epidemic and what happens after. I also think the media should be used to give information and advice and not spread fear and widespread panic as it has been.

Dante said:
I'm not panicking for my own safety. I obviously don't want to get ill per se, but I'm healthy enough that the odds are in my favour.

But by the same token, I don't want the disease to spread. Because if it does, a lot of vulnerable people will die and the NHS will be stretched to breaking point.

There are two sides to the equation. One is concern for myself and the other is concern for the public good. It's possible to judge the two sides separately and come up with different conclusions without them necessarily contradicting each other.

By way of analogy, I'm not worried about eating peanuts. But that doesn't mean I want people with allergies to suffer reactions because of poor labelling and/or food hygiene. I support the latter because it's the right thing to do, even though I gain no personal benefit.

It's right for me not to panic, but it's also right to have serious concerns.
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Thank you. That's a great reply and I agree with you completely. A measured response rather than a knee jerk over the top reaction that will just cause more harm than good.
 
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langster said:
I think somewhere in the middle is the most sensible and logical answer.
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Do you believe China is overreacting in the steps they have taken? They have been dealing with the virus at a large scale longer than anybody. I don't know if people think what they have been doing is just a totalitarian exercise. With your school example, you said yourself it has taken a week for the kid to show any symptoms.That may also be the case for those that may have contracted the virus from this kid. Besides everything I've read says kids may not get the virus at the same rate or show symptoms the same way as adults. So you can't really come to any conclusions from this.
 
Thought this was very elegant. The more measures in place the flatter the curve, even if the total infected doesn't change.
ESas8tHVAAAhr_I
 
Prometheus said:
Do you believe China is overreacting in the steps they have taken? They have been dealing with the virus at a large scale longer than anybody. I don't know if people think what they have been doing is just a totalitarian exercise. With your school example, you said yourself it has taken a week for the kid to show any symptoms.That may also be the case for those that may have contracted the virus from this kid. Besides everything I've read says kids may not get the virus at the same rate or show symptoms the same way as adults. So you can't really come to any conclusions from this.
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There have been no deaths in the U9 age groups but the death rate in the 10-19 age group is about the same low figure as the next age group up. So secondary schools (at the very least) need to be treated like you would if it were only adults that we are talking about.
 
Italy are quarantining 16 million people and we still have people telling us it’s not that bad
 
senorgregster said:
ESas8tHVAAAhr_I
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That is the model but simple putting generalised "protective measures in place doesn't magically bring the number of cases below the carrying capacity of the system. I hope we achieve this but also think that there is very likely going ti be some very severe bottlenecks revealed e.g. how little spare ICU capacity there is.
 
Prometheus said:
Do you believe China is overreacting in the steps they have taken? They have been dealing with the virus at a large scale longer than anybody. I don't know if people think what they have been doing is just a totalitarian exercise. With your school example, you said yourself it has taken a week for the kid to show any symptoms.That may also be the case for those that may have contracted the virus from this kid. Besides everything I've read says kids may not get the virus at the same rate or show symptoms the same way as adults. So you can't really come to any conclusions from this.
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No my point was that a teacher and a student have both been confirmed with the virus. Both have spent nearly two weeks mixing with thousands of people and they are the only two to have the virus (so far) it doesn't appear to have spread and they don't appear to have infected anyone else.

That's a little strange considering the reports from elsewhere in the world. As I said, it may turn out they have spread it and worst case is it's ripping through here now. BUT! So far (touch wood) that doesn't appear to be the case. If it is the opposite then we are all fecked. Me especially as I have pre-existing conditions that would make me susceptible to not dealing with it well. The same as my partner, my daughter and my parents. So don't think I'm not worried about it.

As for China, I dont know what to say. The same as Italy too, and Iran. This leads me back to reiterating the need for concise and honest information from Governments and more stable and reliable reporting from the media. On one hand you have world leaders telling everyone not to worry, and on the other you have countries taking extreme measures the likes many of us have never seen before.

You can't blame people for not having a Scooby what to think or do.

All I know is this mass panicking and madness causing everywhere to run out of hand sanitizer and toilet rolls and now medicines, pasta and tins of soup and beans, is only going to cause more problems and more needless panic.
 
Wibble said:
That is the model but simple putting generalised "protective measures in place doesn't magically bring the number of cases below the carrying capacity of the system. I hope we achieve this but also think that there is very likely going ti be some very severe bottlenecks revealed e.g. how little spare ICU capacity there is.
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As you'll see I argued early on there should be significant measures in place (closing schools is insufficient). The blue curve should be labeled with significant or sufficient. Beyond China not seeing a country do enough.
 
Over 1200 new cases in Italy on Saturday

Hope these new efforts slow it down.

When i read about the 60 who caught it at a Spanish funeral and many elsewhere carrying the virus with no symptoms for a week or more it just shows how quickly this can spread.
 
Expecting an outbreak in Vietnam. The country has done a fairly stellar job since the virus was first reported, schools shut down, as are any other public events/festivals, cases are low and nearly all reported recovered, but all of that was thrown into jeopardy.

The daughter of a steel tycoon who attended King’s College travelled to Italy, she first had symptoms there but continued her travel to France and England. Came back in March 2nd, didn’t report to authority her last destinations, went to a few clubs, banged a few dudes, went shopping in one of the busiest commercial district, and only got diagnosed on March 6th when she came down with a fever.

The dumb feck must’ve potentially by this point infected dozens of people, and with the incubation period + Hanoi’s population density it’s only a matter of time.
 
I do get the feeling that Boris has been a bit flippant about this.

The advice to keep washing your hands and carry on as normal doesn't seem to go very far. Given what we're seeing in Italy, I'd be fine with us closing schools/colleges now, as well as discouraging large public gatherings, having football league games played behind closed doors. Cancelling this year's EPL and voiding all results and points for good measure. Encourage businesses to get their staff working from home wherever possible, I don't mean go for full public hysteria, just make a few changes that would prevent crowds wherever possible.
 
Florida Man said:
I didn’t even know it reached the panhandle. Do you know which town by chance? I wonder if it’s where I went to high school.
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Guy gets tagged to Florida posts even though he's hiding in Colorado Ffs... One presumptive positive in Broward today. Carnival magic docks at fort Lauderdale tomorrow morning and I'm told there are three people with pneumonia but not Corona. Just stay there as long as you can
 
senorgregster said:
As you'll see I argued early on there should be significant measures in place (closing schools is insufficient). The blue curve should be labeled with significant or sufficient. Beyond China not seeing a country do enough.
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I'm not sure what will be enough.

The deaths of mainly elderly people is (sadly) not the main concern. Not overwhelming the health system while not collapsing the economy is essentially the thing we want to balance. If that is possible.
 
A very good article on it: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

Sadly, the most likely scenario seems to be that it is gonna be a new endemic cold (with a much higher death rate than the coronavirus human colds, or human flu). If this happens, and with the vaccines being estimated to become available 12-18 months from now, I wonder how humanity will cope. Crash the economy, work from home when possible, cancel all mass events, or just continue with the life and hope that everything is gonna be alright.
 
The negative impact it is having is now out of control. Everyone involved from the ground level is going to be negatively impacted in some way. The rate at which this has taken hold is what really shocks me. I didn’t think it would go this badly wrong so soon.

I have to wonder what people expected though. Something like this was always going to happen. Now it is going to cost millions to properly terminate and you wonder if the higher ups have the fortitude to do what needs to be done. Especially in the early stages.

EDIT: Sorry thought I was in the Mourinho thread.
 
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