And that’s my point. Countries that have a constant trickle of cases will eventually achieve some level of herd immunity, with or without a vaccine. Countries that effectively banish the virus (e.g. NZ) will have a completely naive and vulnerable population until they’re all vaccinated. Which might never happen.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
And that’s my point. Countries that have a constant trickle of cases will eventually achieve some level of herd immunity, with or without a vaccine. Countries that effectively banish the virus (e.g. NZ) will have a completely naive and vulnerable population until they’re all vaccinated. Which might never happen.
Are they though? They've bought themselves time, while the rest of the world simulates itself as a case study for their benefit.
As more data comes in they'll know which measures give the most bang for their buck.
Same with the Bank of england response to Brexit. They took action to mitigate damage and people think that the warnings were overblown.
I think it's very well orchestrated. The aim is to do as little as possible for as cheaply as possible. It's the Tory credo.
This chart tells a similar story:
Y: deaths per 100k
X: weeks passed since January 22nd
They bought themselves time to build testing/ICU/PPE/tracing infrastructure and having low case numbers gives them a better chance of containing further outbreaks.
On the other hand, do we even know how long/much antibodies from a previous Covid-19 infection protect you?
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It's beyond silly right?
You can catch Bad AIDS from hugging someone though.
As Skills said, they've bough themselves time and protected their population from death. Moreover, when new cases do trickle in they have experience in managing the problem. Herd immunity is not given either, but its something that may have to be relied on places where they can't contain the spread. Herd immunity though will mean sacrificing people's lives.
Anyone got a link for their clarification on seeing only one person outside your household please? I can't find anything.
It’s amazing how many people don’t get this simple point
With the Sweden approach, once they start to slow down and deaths start to level/drop won't that then mean we can get an indication of %ages of deaths and how many we can expect to be infected in other countries?
I understand queuing up at a lot of places when they are reopening. But at the gym in the middle of the night?
if we weren’t allowed all those interactions what would your word of choice be to describe the situation? Barbaric is a touch too much mate
If and when they choose the measures they think work best they’ll still be behind every other country in the timescale of implementation. It’s not as though there are any huge surprises here. You either live with the virus, or vaccinate against it. If you’re going to live with it, the sooner that starts the better (so long as your healthcare system isn’t overwhelmed anyway)
you don't lockdown an entire country just to ensure senior citizens don't die though. it's to avoid your health services being overrun. countries are going to have to come out of lockdown eventually, what happens then?
LOCKDOWN: Episode 6.
This is why governments asking people to have common sense doesn't work. Common sense is very individual depending on your life experience and how that has shaped you so you'll have people from all classes and backgrounds who have none or have some.
But hey, it absolves governments of blame so who cares!
Number 10 is a waste of space.
I’m happy to stay in. But if you tell me I can go to sunbathe in a park, at a distance from hundreds of strangers...
Why the Fcuk do they think I’d not trust 10 friends to meet me and stay apart?
Their messaging is not workable.
Exactly. The more crowded somewhere gets, the less easy it is to social distance.
Parks in England are going to be fecking brutal. They will be packed and there will be very little social distancing.
Im not allowed to meet more than one family member In a park, two metres apart, but sitting amongst hundreds of strangers is permitted? It’s lunacy.
Im not allowed to meet more than one family member In a park, two metres apart, but sitting amongst hundreds of strangers is permitted? It’s lunacy.
Regarding Nz - I have friends and family there;
- They’ve proven themselves to be trustable
- The public has been exposed to lockdown measures
- They’ve been shown that they work
- They have had a clearly defined scale in place that everyone knows
Their long term strategy is based around mitigant treatment, not a vaccine.
There’s no element of gambling. They’re just biding their time. The rest of the world is running trials on drugs, running several dozen types of social experiments.
NZ doesn’t have the resources to lead. So it’s chosen to manage their country, then follow and adopt the best proven standards from other countries.
Meet as many people as you like. They don’t care. Make your own decisions.
You are obviously not lifting either.
Apparently they raffled off a trip to the US (seems a quite fitting destination, seeing that queue). Not sure they could make it much clearer that they are not using their opportunity responsibly. I don't even know why they were allowed to open in the first place. They have people sweat and breath heavily all over the place, dozens of people (lets be honest here: lots of them are either dumb or careless) sharing one piece of equipment and notoriously short staffed and underpaid personnel have to "police" the whole thing?
That's the sort of logic that leads societies towards ultra-authoritarian governments
“Their long term strategy is based around mitigant treatment, not a vaccine.”
Could you expand on that? Not sure what you mean?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...s/deathsregistereduptoandincluding20april2020
Deaths by occupation.
Deaths by occupation.
I realise that's what we should do, but it's not what the government have given us guidance on and it was suggested at the start of the speech yesterday that fines would rise as a deterrent to stop people breaking the guidance.
It's OK if they don't care and trust people to make the right decisions but it's another to suggest they will fine you if you are caught not following what they say.
Our region (Marche) now has the lowest R-number of all regions in Italy, at 0.29. This is a great result, as we were up there with the worst 4 or 5 regions a few weeks ago. We still can't travel freely between regions, and that seems to be working.
Anyone who's ever worked with the general public knows there is no such thing as common sense. Probably why these ruling class types have no idea of how the real world works.
I think anyone in politics should have to spend 2 years working in a shop, just to understand how thick the general population can be.
Maybe we should have done that here, stop people fancying a trip up from the Midlands to the Lake District.
Some interesting stuff there. Security guards was a bit of a curve ball. Presumably the poor sods being shouted at for making people queue outside shops
Definitely - although the concept of regions is far looser in the UK than it is here, so it would have been difficult to define. It's only since last week that we've been able to travel for certain reasons in other parts of our own region, as up till 4 May we had to stay in the village, town or city where we were registered as living.
Every region in Italy has its own President and they have a lot of power, which is exercised through the network of Mayors. It's extra layers of government, but it's helpful at times like these.
It's time travellers. Like 12 Monkeys.
They are taking out Brexiteers too for good measure.
There’s no chance you’d get fined for meeting up with your parents and keeping 2 meters apart. As long as you aren’t there for hours, there’s no way of police telling. There were people having BBQ’s in the biggest park in Bath when I was there on Saturday, no police to be seen and that’s a sunny bank holiday weekend during a lockdown.
So apparently my office has reopened and they are getting some people back, I don't know if it's those who have been furloughed or people who have been wfh. It would make sense to just have the furloughed people in the office and keep the rest wfh but it sounds like some who have been wfh are returning
Hoping I can fly under the radar and stay wfh.
Hoping I can fly under the radar and stay wfh.
They’re not a dramatic people.
If Remdesivir or something else reduces severity, they’ll use it. Other countries will lead the work to find other treatments that make the virus less life threatening. They’ll follow.
They’re not suggesting this is all going away soon. The messaging is that they’re in this for as long as it takes and their number one priority is people.
Nobody will fine you.