I didn't.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I didn't.
were they designed specifically for coronavirus patients? Or could they be used for non coronavirus patients. Bear in mind they have been reports of people who have other ailments not going to hospital
Seem a bit of a waste
To be fair hardly any of the press are discussing the government's huge amount of feck ups during this so their comms team must be doing something right are keeping it all quiet.
Because they are. There are degrees of it and stacking bodies in ice rinks or choosing not to treat the elderly is just a greater degree of it.
Yes, the government has already said as much, it's great that they have been barely used so far, but no doubt some of the press will deem them a waste of money.
I’m not all that immersed in the Uk press, so might have got that wrong. Was just a bit stunned when you said you’ve had it easy compared to Italy. You’re usually pretty sensible so that seemed an odd thing to say. I then jumped to the conclusion this was influenced by the fact that what little Uk media I have watched has been relatively laid back. So it’s possible I’m adding two plus two to get 5.
Re your first para, excess deaths in Italy and England/Wales very similar. Slightly higher in Italy but that’s to be expected as they’re a few weeks ahead of the Uk. It’s actually interesting how similar the Uk and Italy have tracked each other on every available metric throughout.
Wait what? That’s two people?
According to figures that the Italian media use 28,710 people have died in Italy
https://lab.gedidigital.it/gedi-vis...talia/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I249998895-C12-P3-S1.8-L
According to the UK government's figures 28,131 people have died in the UK.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
I'm not sure if the Italian source is an official number but there's only a difference of 579 deaths between the two.
And how many people already dead in Italy before the first UK death?
I didn’t say they’ve had it easy in fairness, just that we’ve not had the level of overwhelming that they had in Italy and same type of really shocking stories. Only some alt-right nutters think that the NHS are tossing it off. The numbers have been terrible for sure and we’ll be one of the worst affected in the world but the services that have copped for it in the end for it have managed it well.
Ok. Fair enough. Wouldn’t disagree with any of that. Seems to have been some mistakes made at a Public Health level but the NHS itself has functioned very well. It’s always been an excellent health service, to be fair.
I was talking about excess deaths, it looks at overall deaths compared to the usual average. It’s thought to be more telling as it better discounts errors in reporting or possible cover-ups or cooking of the books etc by governments. I didn’t notice the * for Italy initially, it appears it only covers Lombardy I think.
https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c
Are the nightingale hospitals even staffed? You can build hospitals, but if it means you're going to have to split your nursing/doctor resource between them they'll be quite hesitant to use them even if the other hospitals are running overcapacity.
The London one had staffing issues but other hospitals were able to cope with the excess. I think most have barely been used and I don’t think this one was used at all. They’re talking of decommissioning them all.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52284262
It is almost as if restrictions have avoided an even worse situation 
Here’s some details from an article on the Nightingale hospitals from Medscape
In the UK there are a total of 17 field hospitals being built or completed in recent weeks, seven in England (London, Bristol, Birmingham, Manchester, Harrogate, Exeter, Tyne & Wear) eight in Wales (Cardiff, Neath, Abercynon, Llanelli, Llandudno, Flintshire, Denbighshire, Bangor) and one each in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Logistical support from members of Britain’s military COVID Support Force as part of Operation Rescript has enabled building work and creation of these new field hospitals to happen in record quick time.
Bed Capacity
The total bed capacity of all the proposed Nightingale Hospitals totals could be more than 13,000.
However, Dr David Rosser, chief executive of University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust said Birmingham's Nightingale hospital is "not being used at all" 10 days after it was opened. Dr Rosser claimed this was "a good thing" because it demonstrated that the NHS had coped with the extra pressure put on it by COVID-19. The temporary hospital, which was built in 8 days and has the potential capacity for 4000 patients over a 75,000 sq ft area, opened on April 10th. However, West Midlands Mayor Andy Street admitted it has 'not needed to be used'.
Usage
Similarly, the flagship ExCel Nightingale in east London treated just 26 patients last week, down from a peak of 41. Currently NHS critical care capacity in London is holding up well, with existing hospitals managing despite the significant increase in demand for care. NHS England said NHS trusts have already freed up more than 33,000 beds, the equivalent of 50 new hospitals. These successful measures mean hospitals still have sufficient staff, beds and equipment available to deal with Covid-19, but the Nightingales provide an extra reserve of capacity if required. NHS Chief Executive Sir Simon Stevens said: "It will count as a huge success for the whole country if we never need to use them but with further waves of coronavirus possible it is important that we have these extra facilities in place and treating patients."
Staffing Nightingales
Despite concern that there is a lack of staff to run the hospitals, NHS Nightingale Hospitals in London and Yorkshire & the Humber are currently not accepting any more applications due to the high volumes received.
He said that the team were faced with a very difficult situation where there were people who may die because of the lack of a ventilator so they had to do something. He said, "we would have to find a way, we would have had to stretch staff, skilled staff, supporting them with less skilled staff in a way to try and make that work because, the alternative was unthinkable".
When he talked about stretching staff he said that this situation had turned "decades of intensive care medicine on its head" in that, traditionally critical care meant one-to-one nursing of patients in side rooms but was now being delivered on a current patient ratio of one to four. But if numbers of COVID-19 positive patients increase patient/nurse ratio would go down to one nurse for six patients. He admitted this "would stretch the skilled staff more than they ordinarily would be".
In the UK there are a total of 17 field hospitals being built or completed in recent weeks, seven in England (London, Bristol, Birmingham, Manchester, Harrogate, Exeter, Tyne & Wear) eight in Wales (Cardiff, Neath, Abercynon, Llanelli, Llandudno, Flintshire, Denbighshire, Bangor) and one each in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Logistical support from members of Britain’s military COVID Support Force as part of Operation Rescript has enabled building work and creation of these new field hospitals to happen in record quick time.
Bed Capacity
The total bed capacity of all the proposed Nightingale Hospitals totals could be more than 13,000.
However, Dr David Rosser, chief executive of University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust said Birmingham's Nightingale hospital is "not being used at all" 10 days after it was opened. Dr Rosser claimed this was "a good thing" because it demonstrated that the NHS had coped with the extra pressure put on it by COVID-19. The temporary hospital, which was built in 8 days and has the potential capacity for 4000 patients over a 75,000 sq ft area, opened on April 10th. However, West Midlands Mayor Andy Street admitted it has 'not needed to be used'.
Usage
Similarly, the flagship ExCel Nightingale in east London treated just 26 patients last week, down from a peak of 41. Currently NHS critical care capacity in London is holding up well, with existing hospitals managing despite the significant increase in demand for care. NHS England said NHS trusts have already freed up more than 33,000 beds, the equivalent of 50 new hospitals. These successful measures mean hospitals still have sufficient staff, beds and equipment available to deal with Covid-19, but the Nightingales provide an extra reserve of capacity if required. NHS Chief Executive Sir Simon Stevens said: "It will count as a huge success for the whole country if we never need to use them but with further waves of coronavirus possible it is important that we have these extra facilities in place and treating patients."
Staffing Nightingales
Despite concern that there is a lack of staff to run the hospitals, NHS Nightingale Hospitals in London and Yorkshire & the Humber are currently not accepting any more applications due to the high volumes received.
He said that the team were faced with a very difficult situation where there were people who may die because of the lack of a ventilator so they had to do something. He said, "we would have to find a way, we would have had to stretch staff, skilled staff, supporting them with less skilled staff in a way to try and make that work because, the alternative was unthinkable".
When he talked about stretching staff he said that this situation had turned "decades of intensive care medicine on its head" in that, traditionally critical care meant one-to-one nursing of patients in side rooms but was now being delivered on a current patient ratio of one to four. But if numbers of COVID-19 positive patients increase patient/nurse ratio would go down to one nurse for six patients. He admitted this "would stretch the skilled staff more than they ordinarily would be".
Interesting if genuine. Would be a welcome addition to the fight against covid:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....ial-breakthrough-covid-19-treatment-1.1013578
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....ial-breakthrough-covid-19-treatment-1.1013578
I am sleeping partner in a couple of restaurants: generally speaking, we need 50% table occupancy over a week @ a certain bill size to cover all costs (rent, interest on capital loans, ingredients, salaries) and break even. Generally speaking we'd get between 60-75% table occupancy. Pre virus, we recorded our record ever profits with 83% table occupancy.
Physical distancing plans we've looked at could offer maximum 50-55% table availability. There is zero chance we would ever get 100% occupancy from that availability. More likely max we could achieve is 75% table occupancy from the 55% available AND that will be at a lower average bill size.
ie < 40% .... so we'd run at a major loss. That obviously doesn't work.
I cant see any way how we make any profit whatsoever by implementing physical distancing, and instead we would run up huge losses.
I'm assuming same is true for most independent pubs or bars.
'Restaurants and pubs can re open adopting physical distancing' is just a throw away statement; reality is most wont be able to do so profitably.
May not be true for bigger restaurant or pub chains, I don't know how their business model works as well.
Last edited:
Personally I think Maslow's hierarchy of needs will be a accurate guideline for how humans adapt during the pre vaccine phase, as they re-calibrate consumption and spending choices.
Until a vaccine is found and vast majority of people are immunised, I suspect jobs within providing humans physiological and safety needs will be safe, and indeed some organisations will grow and thrive in that space.
But as people cut back on non essential spending, industries built around providing humanity with love and belonging, esteem or self actualisation will really struggle or temporarily disappear. Basically the higher your job is within delivering Maslow's hierarchy of needs, the more precarious your immediate future income prospects are.
Anyone whose income is reliant higher up the hierarchy and loses their job should re-skill asap in providing humans with physiological and safety needs. Once the vaccine arrives, they can then plot your way upwards again.
Last edited:
My head hurts
The woman in glasses made some sense, in a conspiracy theorist kind of way, until she said the virus may or may not be real. Then she lost me. Stand her in a ward off covid patients for a few hours and let her see for herself. The others are just nut cases. Thankfully there seemed to be very little support with them and no guns.
Looking at different polls today, will vaccine actually allow us to get back to the normal that we are used to? Here almost half people say they will never get vaccine. If rest of world is similar then the issue will still remain despite vaccine.
What's with the 5g all the time? It's the new flat earth.
Yeah. That has been a bit weird. The UK has a thing about dramatising overseas poverty and crises, and completely downplaying domestic equivalents. You see it all through our fundraising and charity appeals. Reporting on terrorism is another example of where we have very short memories of the UK being an epicentre at one point.
How likely is it that Dybala is still infectious after 6 weeks? Isn’t it probable that anyone who tests positive that many times, that long after their first symptoms, is similar to the South Korean cases we read about earlier? And that it would be highly unlikely he’s still contagious, or suffering from symptoms, and ultimately testing positive that long after you first got the virus really doesn’t mean much at all other than simply the fact that he had it in the recent past?
For what it’s worth, I’m not sure what your view on this is but the official NHS advice on their website if I recall correctly is that you aren’t contagious as long as you’ve gone 3 days without a fever, even if you still have a cough.
I think the issue in the media with Dybala is less about him being asymptomatic (he might not have been at the beginning) and more about why he’s testing positive weeks after. This obviously would cause people to panic without them understanding the details.
Of course, in a country with the testing strategy the UK has adopted, asymptomatic carriers are a massive issue and makes tracing basically impossible as long as you don’t test everyone you can.
I have my personal hunches on some of the Nightingale stuff, having had colleagues and staff directly involved in the Manchester one. I think they were done with best, sincere intentions by most working on them, but too often the headline grabbing initiatives of NHS organisations end up designed to hit a target but missing the point. Both the tracing app and the 100k testing programme are two other examples.
One thing I am certain they got wrong is using Manchester Central as a hospital and not as a main testing hub, when they instead used Manchester Airport which is far more difficult to get to. Public transport in GM is very spotty and badly connected.
Surely if the governments do their part and provide the vaccines, and some people don’t take them, it’ll be their problem? We can’t build our lives around people who don’t want to utilise the solution.
Had to google the Dybala thing. Was news to me.
My money’s on those third and fourth tests being negative and this being a fuss about nothing.
Does anyone have a good guess why Western European countries have been doing so much worse than Eastern European countries? Especially considering that they have a significantly better medical system.
Also, it is surprising to see the massive difference between Latvia and Lithuania/Estonia, as is that between Slovenia and Czech Republic.
Yeah, I personally contracted the virus about a month ago and the idea that I may still be infectious now was a bit mad to me!
A dystopian version of Nazi Germany, I must admit that I find that concept intriguing.
Does anyone have a good guess why Western European countries have been doing so much worse than Eastern European countries? Especially considering that they have a significantly better medical system.
Also, it is surprising to see the massive difference between Latvia and Lithuania/Estonia, as is that between Slovenia and Czech Republic.
Probably has to do with the amount of international travel. The only reason the virus got off to a start in Norway in the first place is that so many Norwegians went to Austria and Italy and brought it back.
Last edited:
Some very good early news about possible treatments - peer reviewed and published in Nature as well. Now to human trials.
https://www.sciencealert.com/there-...08_jMa7Mpz4pCOQ_C-42J0mvtOWvP45FpUN3C5YXGb4lM
https://www.sciencealert.com/there-...08_jMa7Mpz4pCOQ_C-42J0mvtOWvP45FpUN3C5YXGb4lM
Some very good early news about possible treatments - peer reviewed and published in Nature as well. Now to human trials.
https://www.sciencealert.com/there-...08_jMa7Mpz4pCOQ_C-42J0mvtOWvP45FpUN3C5YXGb4lM
https://www.sciencealert.com/there-...08_jMa7Mpz4pCOQ_C-42J0mvtOWvP45FpUN3C5YXGb4lM
Not sure. Thousands of Polish people go to Italy/Austria for winter break every year and did so this year as well between December and February.
Rigorous measures have been implemented in Eastern Europe. I have heard Hungary and Slovakia have closed schools until September rather early. In Serbia you are asked not to leave your house in the evening and on weekends. Some of the countries have closed their Airports completely. These are just some examples....
Does anyone have a good guess why Western European countries have been doing so much worse than Eastern European countries? Especially considering that they have a significantly better medical system.
Also, it is surprising to see the massive difference between Latvia and Lithuania/Estonia, as is that between Slovenia and Czech Republic.
Would you ask someone in the middle of a panic attack for advice?
If the answer is no. Then you ignore public opinion when it comes to COVID.
Yep, I guess so. Originally, I come from Kosovo, and the measures (who started before the first identified case) have been extreme. When a case was identified in a municipality, the entire municipality was put under quarantine. And when the number started increasing, then any person was able to leave their house only for 1.5 hours per day (based on the last digit of their ID). More or less everything was shut down (schools were shut down a few days before the first case).
Only 21 deaths so far (for a population of 2 million people), which is pretty good considering the extremely poor health system. But still, the difference in deaths look too extreme. No Balkanian country except Northern Macedonia has more than 3 deaths per 100k people (no Eastern European country has more than 5 deaths per 100k), while no WesternEuropean country has less than 3 deaths per 100k people.