I wish I caught the details but a doctor discussed death rates in hospitals around NYC yesterday. He was quite impressed with the best recovery rate of something like 10% which he called a massive improvement over initial rates. But other hospitals were at 60%. If this takes hold outside of NYC, especially in rural areas, its going to be just awful. They simple aren't equipped and won't have or gain the experience.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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I wish I caught the details but a doctor discussed death rates in hospitals around NYC yesterday. He was quite impressed with the best recovery rate of something like 10% which he called a massive improvement over initial rates. But other hospitals were at 60%. If this takes hold outside of NYC, especially in rural areas, its going to be just awful. They simple aren't equipped and won't have or gain the experience.
Yeah either way you look, there’ll be a hefty price to pay, but I guess you can’t (or at least shouldn’t) stand by idly and risk lives. Not least until your hand is sort of forced. Seems you guys are doing much better than us though.
Yeah the only chance we had was to try and wipe it out almost completely during this 5 week lockdown - which was mission nigh on impossible.
The school bit is also interesting and high risk. Especially after it was confirmed on here (iirc?) that kids are also high transmitters of the virus. I guess they’re caught between a rock and a very hard place.
Yeah it’s going to be carnage. Economically we can’t survive any form of a lockdown and our hospitals are for sure going to get majorly overrun. Medium term prospects isn’t looking too great at all.
Very early on in this thread closing schools was considered the absolute minimum to control this. It feels like years ago now but I think I argued it would work so long as other strict measures were put in place. Anyhow, if school closures were the primary requirement, surely that means schools have to be the LAST thing to reopen? I don't see how distancing can be achieved without getting really creative. Double the teachers? Two shifts for students? No playtime, limit visitors. etc.
If anyone is interested, as of Apr 30, FDA has given authorization for 53 tests, 9 of which are serology. None of the first 5 or 6 are validated appropriately, IMHO. Checking on the others now.
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices...vices/emergency-use-authorizations#covid19ivd
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices...vices/emergency-use-authorizations#covid19ivd
Sweden's half-open society is where most similar countries will end up eventually, but it was definitely not the right place to start for them. As many have pointed out, their inability to shield the elderly, which was their main goal, is a direct consequence of three things:
1. Health care workers being exposed to a higher degree of potential infection in their daily lives.
2. The same health care workers bringing the disease into homes through a lack of PPE.
3. Lack of testing.
The authorities should have realized this, and put the brakes on. I have heard repeated calls in their daily briefings to shield the 70+, but I have yet to hear Tegnell & co explain exactly how they were going to take care of the at-risk citizens. The people have been loyal to the plan, but the plan had gaping holes to begin with.
Australia had double the population but under 100 deaths. NZ is about half the size and has had 19 deaths. Surrounding countries, even Denmark who are connected to continental Europe and have a far higher population density are all doing much better than Sweden. Lock downs work if done well - which is why the UK and US have done so badly. We will all have to relax restrictions gradually at the right time but not doing from the start inevitably costs a significant number of people their lives.
Do you think Australia may be due to population density and climate? I know cases and density appears to correlate weakly but that plus climate perhaps?
Yes, Australia and NZ have done great, which, in the case of Australia, is slighty surprising to me, since they have a lot of Chinese/Asian connections. in addition, they are very much a city-based country, with the bulk of the population living much more urban than the size of the country would suggest.
As for Sweden, I'd love it if they were right in their predictions about herd immunity in May (for Stockholm), because then we, and many other countries, would be able to open up and combine a relaxed attitude to infection with heavy testing, tracing and isolation, and come out the other side relatively unscathed. As long as the jury's still out, I'd say they have taken a massive gamble. And I'm not sure if they're happy being the darlings of the American right-wing "''muh rights, open up!" media.
I think the main factors were that we stopped flights from China and then Italy quite early and locked down quite early. Population density and our ability to lock down internationally and between states has helped but half our population lives in Sydney and Melbourne and 75% live in our five biggest cities so the density is quite high for much of the population.
Sydney made a huge feck up letting a cruise liner full of Covid infected people off without quarantine which has been directly and indirectly the source of a large proportion of our cases. However, high testing levels and very good contact tracing has managed this quite well. I think we had only 11 new cases yesterday and not much more the previous day with only 1 of those was from an unknown source. We are heading into winter so if there is a seasonal factor it is good that we got ahead of things.
Lock down and testing works well.
Agreed on lock down and testing! Just looking at the density of Sidney and Melbourne. Still 20 fold lower than NYC and 10 fold lower than Stockholm.
Greater Sydney includes huge National Parks so the figures are deceptive. The density of the City of Sydney is very nearly double that of Stockholm (and close to the density of the whole of NYC, although I imagine they have areas of much higher density) and the Inner West (the next council out where I live) has a density 1.5 times that of Stockholm. Melbourne City is the most densely populated area of Australia with a density of double that of Sydney City.
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Ah, interesting! How is transit there?
Highly variable. I used to live just outside Greater Sydney but because I was on a main rail line my daily commute was long (over 4 hrs per day) but not that uncomfortable. We have a few light rail/tram lines in the inner suburbs and a reasonable rail and bus system but in greater Sydney as a whole we are far too reliant in cars and on the popular routes driving is terrible with packed roads and inadequate and badly connected motorway systems. I'm so glad I now live 5.5kms from the center and can cycle to work on bike lanes, side roads and parkways.
I swear some of you think it’s just business as normal here in Sweden, these were the scenes yesterday, on one of the biggest celebrations of the year, then and now:
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/uppsala/sista-april-i-uppsala-nu-och-da-se-skillnaden
Now my question to you @Hansa, would full lockdown have prevented a couple of thousand people dying in Sweden? If so, why are Belgium’s stats so horrific? And their care home stats even worse?
Why didn’t full lockdown give them “the right place to start” and a better chance to shield the elderly? They have almost 4000 care home deaths.
Why then have Ireland had 1250ish deaths?
I could go on and on, but a lot of “lockdown” countries or cities (NYC) have absolutely horrific stats, which should tell you that the amount of virus in a country or city in mid-March was a much bigger factor than full lockdown or calmer/milder social distancing measures. Belgium was riddled with the virus, so lockdown has so far had little effect, same with Stockholm after week 9 half term.
My earlier comparison with Stockholm (1406 deaths) to Gothenburg (209) and Malmö (69) is testament to this. The other 2 big Swedish cities had an earlier half term and simply didn’t have much virus circulating in them mid-March.
Comparing Skåne county (Malmö) to say Oslo is an interesting one, 1.3 million in Skåne, 680,000 in Oslo county.
Yet Skåne has just 69 deaths and Oslo county, 58 deaths.
What was the key difference in the two counties compared to say Stockholm, was it lockdown? No.
Was it an early half term than Stockholm and therefore less virus mid-March.... bingo!
Another interesting variable is the amount of Iranians living in the Scandy countries, considering during that Stockholm half term, just how hard hit Iran already was. Sweden 87,703 Iranians, Norway 21,364, Denmark 20,397, Finland 8,427.
There are simply too many variables within Europe, within Scandania and as I've shown you above, within Sweden itself to make any bold claims at this stage. Countries/cities with a lot of virus in mid-March haven't been able to stop the tidal wave of deaths even with tough lockdown measures, so claiming Sweden "started wrong" is just a lot of hot air.
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Russian PM has coronavirus as cases surge past 100,000
I'd be careful with a direct comparison of different countries. As the New York Times and the Economist have reported, Sweden is one of the countries that count Covid-related deaths correctly and their mortality has barely increased compared to the same period last year. Other places such as Lombardy and the Netherlands have a big gap between excess mortality and official Covid death tolls suggesting massive undercounting of the latter. Unfortunately that analysis didn't include data for the other Scandinavian countries.
On the other hand, Germany has actually had fewer deaths compared to last year. Not sure what to make of that. While we've had stricter measures than Sweden, we never went into lockdown either and could go outside as much and as often as we want.
He will have to be mindful that there is a bank holiday at the end of May and it could bring the idiots out en masse.
It's a public holiday here in Italy today, which is no doubt why the slight easing of restrictions isn't going to start until Monday. Some flexibility coupled with being off work is a potential disaster.
It's May Day on Monday and I had completely forgotten it's a Bank Holiday weekend.
You in the UK ? If so check your calendar, the bank holiday has been switched to friday.It's May Day on Monday and I had completely forgotten it's a Bank Holiday weekend.
It's May Day on Monday and I had completely forgotten it's a Bank Holiday weekend.
It's not a bank holiday this weekend, they moved it to May 8th.
I know Norway use the same personal id number system as Sweden do, which from a centralized point of view makes it so much easier to keep track on every single death.
Finland and Denmark I’d imagine have something similar but I haven’t lived there so can’t say for sure.
The personal number in Norway and Sweden is everything, you can’t get a mobile contract without it, join a school or football team, open a bank or even a supermarket loyalty program, it’s even used for logging in to a tonne of online stuff together with a mobile ID app.
The personal number ID system is why Sweden comes with a large random number for Covid-19 deaths on certain days as they go through the SCB system and find deaths, then send an enquiry about them for possibility of Covid-19.
Here's the official SCB "increased mortality report": Preliminär statistik över döda (excelfil)
For 1st January 2020 - 22nd April 2020, Sweden had had 30976 deaths in total.
The previous 5 year average for that same period is: 30274 deaths.
So 6 extra deaths per day so far in 2020.
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Next Friday too, right?
This could be influencing his decision to make some announcements next week. I do think they are feeling that the resolve of the nation is starting to wane in terms of people abiding by lockdown with no light at the end of the tunnel, even though our hospital figures are evidencing that there definitely is.
End of May will have been 9 weeks of lockdown, that's as far as this country will go in terms of obedience and I think he knows that. It would also give us another 3 weeks of driving down the numbers to an even better level, which is definitely achievable looking at the past 2 weeks or so.
Boris needs to drum home the fact that we will get (a lot of) our freedom back in X number of weeks, there's no need to try and take it back earlier.
Hang on Wibs... why have Belgium done so poorly? They locked down early and their response was superb: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Belgium#Government_response
Lockdowns had feck all effect for France, Belgium because they were riddled with the virus pre-lockdown. France locked down extremely "well" in anyone's eyes on 17th March, Belgium on the 18th, 5 days before Australia. Australia locked down on the same day as the UK ffs.
The alps seeded Europe in a huge way, and Australia & NZ fortunately are on the other side of the World.
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There is no light at the end of the tunnel - that is the problem. The hospital figures are only coming down BECAUSE we are in lockdown - as soon as you start to lift it the numbers getting infected will shoot up again. People need to understand that the lockdown is going to be with us for probably a couple of years in one way or another.
Tell that to the countries already out of lockdown. You're a fantasist mate, a grim, grim fantasist.
I'm an NHS worker and I know what's happening out there, it's really really grim I can assure you. Tell me what countries are completely out of lock down so far? Any of them have as high rate of infection as the UK did? Sorry to be a 'grim fantastist' but I'm dealing with the reality here and this is going to be with us for a very long time - we may not be in total lockdown for all of it but the measures to loosen the lockdown will be quite minor to avoid a second wave. If second wave happens then we will be in complete lockdown again from October probably for another 2-3 months. You can then repeat that over and over till we get a vaccine.
Have they? Still not much difference. Most people are off anyway and can't go anywhere.
Excellent points. It has never ceased to amaze me how according to this forum the countries that got it wrong consists exclusively of the U.K. and the USA. Ah well never let reality Get in the way of a good narrative.
The UK and NY State were fecked regardless mate, when it kicked off in Italy they were already absolutely riddled with it, as was Belgium, France and a bunch of other countries.
The blame game is a daft one, some countries got a head start and did very well, but the majority were left with a false sense of security due to SARS and were utterly blindsided when Italy went to shit.
So they were riddled with it and got it under control but still according to you lockdown had feck all effect? Right
Of course they were. Cannot really comment for USA but as I said above we were fecked with half term in the U.K. from 15th to 23rd Feb with the resultant world and his wife either seeking the sun in Spain, Italy or Southern France or going skiing. Result was we had no chance of limiting infection.
Which European country came out of lockdown two weeks or more ago - because that's how long in takes to start to see an impact?
By comparison with the UK with its current not-quite-a lockdown, which countries are actually out of lockdown? Spain has only just allowed kids to leave the house, France is similar. Most of them are only just now talking about exercise as being a reason to be outdoors.
I do think we have to get to something closer to a normal economic life in the UK, and we have to do it soon. Social lives and live entertainment, normal travel/tourism etc are going to take many months to restore. For some of the population, nothing will really change at all until there's a vaccine - except they'll feel more helpless and more forgotten.
The second word of my post was "half-open", so why I'm accused of pretending like it's "business as normal", I don't know. You did not address my points. How exactly was Sweden going to shield the elderly, considering the three factors I listed above? Yes, there is a bit of hindsight to this, as this virus has proved itself to be a lot more invisible and hard to track down, but erring on the side of caution is not wrong in these situations. Even Tegnell has now admitted they might have underestimated the virus.
Don't forget that the Norwegian FHI messed up, just like the Swedish one in their risk assessment this winter. "We'll probably have a maximum of 100 cases by Easter", according to an internal document dated as late as February 25th - week 9. In the following weeks, people returning from Italy were tested or told to self-quarantine (172 confirmed cases). Then, out of nowhere, the "Austrian" bunch began surfacing in March, totalling 696 people at the last count. Stockholm was definitely not unique in that aspect. Fortunately, the government pushed the red button just in time, as the growing number of cases in the succeeding 2-3 weeks showed.
I repeat once again: If Stockholm achieves herd immunity this month, I'll be delighted for them, and it will give many other countries or cities hope that this pandemic can be somewhat safely navigated through controlled exposure to the virus.
The infection rate in Denmark is estimated to have increased from 0.6 to 0.9 after a partial reopening of schools and some businesses, like hairdressers. It started just over two weeks ago so we should be seeing some of the effects already.
How was lockdown going to shield them if it didn't in Belgium?
Why are the elderly somehow “shielded” in Malmö, a miles bigger county than Oslo county?
Because Hansa, the virus was rampant in Stockholm in mid-March, and anywhere where the virus is rampant, it has gotten into care homes. Even in some non-rampant places, it's proving almost impossible pal. Hell, even in places with very little spread it gets in, case in point:
https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks...hjemmet-har-15-beboere-doedd-av-coronaviruset
The answer is likely that the elderly in homes are not shielded anywhere, because we still don’t know how to. Hopefully as countries start opening up and more trustworthy antibody tests are available, everyone can get a grip on this.
As for “underestimating”, absolutely, almost every single country has done that. But the reality is that some obviously just got luckier than others (poor Belgium) and were no way near as hard hit when we realised what was going down in Italy in March. It's the one variable, and most important of all variables, that so many people want to completely discard when comparing how well countries responses have been. Everyone want to laud Germany, but they likely just had much less virus circulating mid-March than France, The UK and Belgium.
Malmö county has done as well, if not better than Oslo county, not because of lockdown, but because both Oslo and Malmö started a long way back from Stockholm. Not everyone started this race on the same start line, not even close. Belgium is clear evidence of that because their response has been excellent, yet they got fecked anyway.
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That is fantastic news if true.