SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)



My previous professor/boss was very interested in aptamers. One of the main drawbacks though is cost. At least when he was teaching me (2014), the cost was something like a thousand dollars for a single dose (for a medicine you need to take every month).
 
If we keep on reading press releases about every single candidate getting through pre-clinical development it’s going to be a tough few years.

Think of the most excruciatingly prolonged Ronaldunho/Sneijder/Hazard to United transfer saga, only with a thousand different players linked to us, each eventually joining other clubs until only one or two are left. Over a period of several years. And those one or two players could still end up gazumped by Real Madrid after signing a Manchester United shirt and liking Pogba’s posts on Instagram.

Ronaldunho was some player. Way better than Ronaldinho
 
Coronavirus: Social restrictions 'to remain for rest of year'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52389285
Totally to be expected

the post lockdown strategy would have to be that IF society can be re-structured to properly implement physical distancing (until nation is fully vaccinated), UK NHS now has enough capacity, staff and PPE to deal with serious cases, which should never be as high as pre lockdown peak because of physical distancing and reduced socialisation.

In such a society, the outcomes of contact tracing become the key disrupter, as people get quarantined at a moments notice, as soon as they are identified being in close contact with an infected person. All employers will have to be able to manage such absenteeism and continual disruption.

Can’t see opportunity for mass gatherings and doubt many restaurants or drinking places can make profit with limited numbers. No idea how international travel will work or how we interact with loved elders in but locking them away devoid of family contact til vaccination doesn’t sound like it will work.

May as well get used to it as can’t see how it works otherwise without mass vaccination or herd immunity.
 
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:lol: :lol:
 
Reading comments on Polish websites I’m terrified how strongly opposed to a potential vaccine people are. There are thousands of comments under each article about vaccine development and 98% of them are about not wanting it because ‘they will chip us’ and ‘it will do more harm than good like all vaccines in the past’.

We really need a disease that will wipe out morons.
 


“I’m afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a vaccine before the end of next year,” Schwan said on a Wednesday conference call with reporters, adding that an 18-month timeline is “very ambitious.”

He said that an antibody test, rather than a vaccine, would be key to allowing people to return to normal life before 2021.

The blood tests, which Roche plans to launch in May, can determine whether someone has had COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, and is likely immune to the virus. That could allow the population to gradually return to work.

Some researchers are more optimistic that a vaccine will be produced this year.

Says the CEO of a firm about to start selling an antibody test. Hmmmm?

In one sense he is right. A vaccine isn't a given before the end of 2021 by any means. But ............
 
Reading comments on Polish websites I’m terrified how strongly opposed to a potential vaccine people are. There are thousands of comments under each article about vaccine development and 98% of them are about not wanting it because ‘they will chip us’ and ‘it will do more harm than good like all vaccines in the past’.

We really need a disease that will wipe out morons.

It's the same here, especially as Djokovic went on record saying he did not want a vaccine a couple of days ago.

It is alarming how anti-intellectual people are.
 
Reading comments on Polish websites I’m terrified how strongly opposed to a potential vaccine people are. There are thousands of comments under each article about vaccine development and 98% of them are about not wanting it because ‘they will chip us’ and ‘it will do more harm than good like all vaccines in the past’.

We really need a disease that will wipe out morons.

Natural selection at work. Although since it mainly kills older people who won't be reproducing not as much as it could be.
 
Says the CEO of a firm about to start selling an antibody test. Hmmmm?

In one sense he is right. A vaccine isn't a given before the end of 2021 by any means. But ............

I thought the same when reading the article.

On a different subject, if it indeed lasts that long (or more), I would not be surprised to see governments say feck it and let it run loose.
 
I thought the same when reading the article.

On a different subject, if it indeed lasts that long (or more), I would not be surprised to see governments say feck it and let it run loose.

Let it run loose and the economy would be devastated, even more so than is already inevitable, so it would be dumb indeed. But given the current bunch of clowns in charge who knows?
 
Let it run loose and the economy would be devastated, even more so than is already inevitable, so it would be dumb indeed. But given the current bunch of clowns in charge who knows?

The thing is, I am not sure it is that clear cut. Dont know if you saw the bbc link i posted a few posts ago about a cancer doctor predicting delays in cancer diagnosis due to lockdown will cause more years of life lost than covid-19?

Ultimately, there is a question mark over whether a few months of complete covid disaster is worse than 20 months of mediocre covid disaster. I would like to see comparative predictions, but with years of life lost, not lives in absolute terms.
 
The thing is, I am not sure it is that clear cut. Dont know if you saw the bbc link i posted a few posts ago about a cancer doctor predicting delays in cancer diagnosis due to lockdown will cause more years of life lost than covid-19?

Ultimately, there is a question mark over whether a few months of complete covid disaster is worse than 20 months of mediocre covid disaster. I would like to see comparative data, but with years of life lost, not lives in absolute terms.

The maths on that just don't work due to the slow development of cancer. Not that it won't have some effect.

And the way to get everyday medicine going again is to lock down and get R well under 1.

Australia is starting almost normal medical services next week because they have things well under control. Massively hit countries won't be able to do this because a) medical services are at or above capacity and b) you can't have uninfected people in hospitals where the virus is raging.
 
Says the CEO of a firm about to start selling an antibody test. Hmmmm?

In one sense he is right. A vaccine isn't a given before the end of 2021 by any means. But ............


I think mankind will accept any sequence or combination of 'medicines' to get around covid19.

If Roche anti-body test works as claimed, they'll make an instant fortune across the globe, even if it has limited usefulness until vaccines available for masses. Given its been produced so quickly, doubt they invested that much $R&D.
 
Australia is starting almost normal medical services next week because they have things well under control.
What do you think Aussie international border policy will be until vaccine? Entry only via prior 24 hour test certificate or self paid 14 day quarantine?
 
I think mankind will accept any sequence or combination of 'medicines' to get around covid19.

If Roche anti-body test works as claimed, they'll make an instant fortune across the globe, even if it has limited usefulness until vaccines available for masses. Given its been produced so quickly, doubt they invested that much $R&D.

I agree but it wouldn't be unlikely that the new CEO wants to big up his new product a bit especially given that he is really only being slightly more cautious about the development of a vaccine than others.
 
What do you think Aussie international border policy will be until vaccine? Entry only via prior 24 hour test certificate or self paid 14 day quarantine?

Not sure. Currently everyone is taken to a hotel for a 14 day quarantine under police guard - paid for by the government. Until very reliable testing for live infections and antibodies are available I doubt we will move to certification. Quarantine could become self funded in due course.
 
The maths on that just don't work due to the slow development of cancer. Not that it won't have some effect.

And the way to get everyday medicine going again is to lock down and get R well under 1.

Australia is starting almost normal medical services next week because they have things well under control. Massively hit countries won't be able to do this because a) medical services are at or above capacity and b) you can't have uninfected people in hospitals where the virus is raging.

If you are sure, fine. It is not my field, I was just quoting what he said.
 
If you are sure, fine. It is not my field, I was just quoting what he said.

I'm not sure but it seems likely given the speed with which each develop. And you don't really have a choice but to deal with the most immediate threat anyway. You can't decide, in effect, to let people die now just in case others die later.

Everything has consequences, poverty increases the death rate for example but that isn't now. You can't ignore it but it is less immediately important.
 
I'm not sure but it seems likely given the speed with which each develop. And you don't really have a choice but to deal with the most immediate threat anyway. You can't decide, in effect, to let people die now just in case others die later.

You actually can but yes, that would raise all sorts of ethical questions and I cannot see it being done.
 
When you want US cops to be trigger-happy, they're not.
Well....this is the latest...


Never seen american cops with their tails between their legs before


P.s. does that still autoplay with a spoiler?
 
Well....this is the latest...


Never seen american cops with their tails between their legs before


P.s. does that still autoplay with a spoiler?


The problem for cops in some areas out west is that the people there are insane and have lots of guns. A few years ago, a group of nutjobs (sovereign citizen types) took over a federal wildlife refuge for 40 days. In 2009, Homeland Security had a detailed, damning report about right wing extremists that the GOP pressured the Obama Administration to throw out because they claimed Obama was targeting conservatives. These are the same type people who blew up the Oklahoma City federal building.
 
Well....this is the latest...


Never seen american cops with their tails between their legs before


P.s. does that still autoplay with a spoiler?


No surprise that these types are trying to create another Ruby Ridge.

And yes, as soon as I replied all of the spoilered reddit embeds started playing :wenger:

After I edited the above line in, the one in my quote started playing again.
 
The problem for cops in some areas out west is that the people there are insane and have lots of guns. A few years ago, a group of nutjobs (sovereign citizen types) took over a federal wildlife refuge for 40 days. In 2009, Homeland Security had a detailed, damning report about right wing extremists that the GOP pressured the Obama Administration to throw out because they claimed Obama was targeting conservatives. These are the same type people who blew up the Oklahoma City federal building.
And we are only days after the 25th anniversary of that bombing, yet the POTUS is tweeting about liberating states and protecting the 2nd Amendment against COVID1... I won’t say much more because I’m sure to get angry.

That was one of the most surreal days of my life, almost on par with 9/11. Sort of like seeing the streets downtown completely empty currently like it’s the early bit of a zombie flick.
 
It is 70-80% effective against the most severe forms of TB. Less so for milder strains.

I think 30% antibody was for severe strain only. Need to confirm but they said it was not very effective after certain period of time
 
Let it run loose and the economy would be devastated, even more so than is already inevitable, so it would be dumb indeed. But given the current bunch of clowns in charge who knows?

They're already committed to ruining the economy, Brexit will take care of that. Letting the virus run free was always their preferred strategy anyway, and imo that's still what they're going for. Either way, with this shower at the helm it's going to be a complete disaster. Just look at the disconnect between what they say and what's happening in reality.
 
Reading comments on Polish websites I’m terrified how strongly opposed to a potential vaccine people are. There are thousands of comments under each article about vaccine development and 98% of them are about not wanting it because ‘they will chip us’ and ‘it will do more harm than good like all vaccines in the past’.

We really need a disease that will wipe out morons.

If they refuse the vaccine we already have a disease that will wipe out 1% of them. Which is a start.
 


@Suedesi
@Revan

So my “kills 1 in 100” comment might be on the money. Small numbers (768) but proper random household sampling. Which is the gold standard in studies like this.

Depends how long the lag is for antibodies. Seems like this twitter guy calculated (don't know if he is part of study or just a random): 190/0.035/499.000=1.1%. 190 deaths on 20.4. 3.5% infected on 6-10.4. So he assume that deaths take 12 days more than antibodies. Deaths take about 20 days, so he assumes antibodies will become noticeable in 8 days after infection, I think it is longer. So death rate would be less than 1,1% imo.
 
Depends how long the lag is for antibodies. Seems like this twitter guy calculated (don't know if he is part of study or just a random): 190/0.035/499.000=1.1%. 190 deaths on 20.4. 3.5% infected on 6-10.4. So he assume that deaths take 12 days more than antibodies. Deaths take about 20 days, so he assumes antibodies will become noticeable in 8 days after infection, I think it is longer. So death rate would be less than 1,1% imo.

Yeah that’s a good point. And he is just a random. Although there does seem to be a long tail in time to death, which might bring it back closer to 1%? Which is consistent with what we’re seeing in other countries.

Anyway, this is preliminary results only. Looks like a very well designed study, so worth keeping an eye on.
 
Yeah that’s a good point. And he is just a random. Although there does seem to be a long tail in time to death, which might bring it back closer to 1%? Which is consistent with what we’re seeing in other countries.

Anyway, this is preliminary results only. Looks like a very well designed study, so worth keeping an eye on.

Might be a stupid question, but if the death rate is 1%, would that also mean thats its much less contagious than what we thought?
Like ca "only" 18 million would be infected.
 
By the way, has any government anywhere considered lifting restrictions completely for people under 30? Obviously they would need to be aware that some of them would still die and there should be no obligation for them to stop working from home etc Everyone over 30 would have to follow strict instructions to keep away from the young ‘uns who, in turn, would have to stop mingling with older folk i.e. need to be under 30 AND moved out from family home (which would be tough to implement, maybe smartphone app?)

It would seem like a relatively effective way to get cracking on herd immunity and help the economy tick over without overwhelming the health service. Devil in the detail, obviously!
 
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There's no debate about 1 and 2. It does cause concern and stoke fear walking around like that. As for 2, I get togged up in the full PPE a few times a day at the moment, so I know we don't need hazmat suits and gasmasks.

You can get friends to deliver food, you can get food deliveries, you should have enough basic essentials, this has been ongoing for a couple of months now. It's only 1 week you self quarantine for when positive. Anyway, the guy was with his (I presume) wife.

There are people who legitimately has no savings and no money to buy delivery food. It's all good to be sitting in an ivory chair saying you should do this and that but in some parts of the world staying home means cramped in a 2x2 rooms with no entertainment.

And before you complain about people needing entertainment in times of crisis imagine living in that condition with no savings, no cable tv, no books, no high speed internet, no pc. Just probably a smart phone and lets see how long your sanity last.

Now I'm not saying they're right to do whatever they want. But i can emphasize with their situation. We can vilify people going beach partying but there are lots of gray areas as well