The smallpox vaccine wiped out smallpox completely. That’s the best case scenario. Permanent immunity after being vaccinated will do that. Extremely unlikely this would happen now.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
The smallpox vaccine wiped out smallpox completely. That’s the best case scenario. Permanent immunity after being vaccinated will do that. Extremely unlikely this would happen now.
All those opinions could be correct. They’re not actually disagreeing with each other. It’s possible we could have a vaccine this year. It’s more likely we won’t get one for another year or two but it’s also possible we’ll never get one.
This is science. There is always a difference of opinion in research because it is at the very limit of our understanding of nature. You will find the same issues in any field.
Right now you will have to accept we just don't know if a vaccine can be found, and if one is found and developed, we don't know how long that research and development process will take. Everything is based on educated guesses.
It is yeah, I personally think it should have been a firm 30day travel ban in and out of every country, no exceptions. But it wasn't, and it isn't, so hey ho.
It was you, yeah, couldn't remember the poster's name. Nor can I remember the name of the other poster who flew home but it definitely wasn't (or didnt sound like) a repatriation situation. It seemed like just a 'maybe I should fly home for a bit' situation. Do you think the border for Italy is quite possibly a different story altogether due to the severity of covid19 in Italy? I wonder if the same border measures are in place for other countries that border Switzerland.
With 828 yesterday it's quite a jump from 441 but seems like the 441 taking into account weekend lag was really low so it's look more like 6xx each day, hopefully. The graph is also subject to a lot of change and we've had 4.5-5.5k cases each day recently to unfold.
We're going to need a week or two of lower numbers before exit plans can be talked about. Other countries did this but some simply pointing at other countries and saying "we not got one they have" without understanding the different timeline and need to see evidence of a prolonged drop. Said yesterday before the 828, it was only a few days ago we had 888, then yesterday 828. No-one was screaming for an exit plan after Spain and Italy were around the peak.
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Yeah the past few days will definitely shoot up but that graph does suggest that we are seeing a slow but steady decline in daily deaths, which must be good news surely and a positive sign.
Just to point out, the graph is from NHS England. 828 deaths was reported for the UK which includes England, Scotland, Wales and NI [UK Gov].
How is it scare mongering to report facts? The actual rate of infection that Germany operates with and the warnings that officials derive from it?
Perhaps the headline could have been worded better. The initial headline was:
"Warning after infection rate rises in Germany as lockdown measures eased "
Maybe it could have said this:
"Increase in infection rate to be expected after lockdown measures relaxed"
The first title makes it sound as if this was something unexpected and has come as a surprise. The second title makes is clear it was expected and does not come as a surprise.
It's not really a repatriation situation. You just need a real reason to travel between the two countries - essential work, health or extenuating circumstances are the three accepted. In theory i could use my British passport, Italian residency and Swiss work to travel between the three places as much as i like.
Thanks for these, but let's take the worst outcome and assume a vaccine is very hard to find in practice. Should all resources be redirected to the development of a drug that actually cures those who are infected instead? Genuine question, as you can see I'm rather clueless on this.
Also they could just be overconfident because they are high achievers at the top of their game buoyed by the prospect of producing career defining work.
They’re throwing an absolute shit load of resources at developing vaccines AND treatments. Which is the right thing to do. No guarantee of success with either avenue, unfortunately. No matter how much money you spend.
You learn just as much from negative results as well as positive results. Along the way you can develop better techniques which may also have uses in other research fields.
Very true, our Governments ability/track record in procuring 'goods' in particular, is very patchy. If they are buying finished products from known stock i.e. from warehouse, its not too bad, but when it involves going further back in up the chain to procure new items, not yet manufactured or not fully processed into their final stages, then we have a poor record; whether this is PPE or warships, we seem to have no idea how to project manage procurement chains beyond placing an order with the nearest /cheapest stock holder. Maybe its another lesson we shall learn, post Covid-19; however based on past evidence , I shall not hold my breath!
https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-peter-attia-drive/id1400828889?i=1000471325028
Good podcast with very highly qualified bloke to talk about this. A bit US-centric. I’d say it’s fairly accessible, even if you’re not scientifically inclined.
Good podcast with very highly qualified bloke to talk about this. A bit US-centric. I’d say it’s fairly accessible, even if you’re not scientifically inclined.
I know you're holding your hand up here, but I think I remember you using their repute as an appeal to authority in arguments in this thread. Thanks for bringing this info too and maybe be cautious on using rep like that in the future.
To be fair to him the Karolinska Institute is the real deal. This sort of shoddy research is completely unexpected from a place with their reputation.
It seems obvious that people rather want to read reassuring messages, but the facts are that RKI reported a jump in infection rate from 0.7 to 0.9, when the goverments target is "somewhere below 1.0" and their models suggest that 1.1 would overwhelm hospitals by October. And those easment measures have only partly been implemented on Monday, so they don't even fully really register in the data yet. I think it's absolutely something to be concerened about and people get warned all the time not to relax one bit.
I'll check this out.
The one I've been listening to is This Week in Virology. It has been the best source of information I have found on this virus, although a lot goes over my head!
Exactly this, you've explained my stance better than I could have. Bad news sells. Headlines are often decked out with harsher language or wording to grab people's attention more, I consider that to be scare-mongering personally.
Fair enough, got you.
Yes, there may be some truth in that.
I obviously can't speak for those researchers personally, but the people (professors, post docs, phd students, technicians etc) I encountered in research were quite reserved and humble. Certainly confident, but not what I would call arrogant at all. I do think many professors I encountered in particular have some degree of stubborness and cynicism, which can be good or bad depending on the situation. I also think the professors I came across genuinely had a passion for their work and weren't so interested in acclaim, but rather just ensuring they produce high quality work out of pride and also to ensure future funding is more easily secured.
People make mistakes, it happens. It is extremely easy to sit at home and criticise people who design and carry out experiments. Just because something appears obvious in hindsight, does not mean it was obvious at the point in time. People can also become forgetful, it may well have been obvious to them at the time, but they just forgot because there was so much to consider in a short time frame. At a guess, I imagine there is also an additional pressure to produce results because of the ongoing crisis.
I don't know the situation here but occassionally a mistake or error doesn't impact the main conclusions of a piece of work. It may also be that the rest of the work is still of high quality, that it actually helps lead to the correct answer in the future. The latter can be the case in mathematics, see for example a historical discussion on the development of the proof for Fermat's Last Theorem [article].
Cool. Thanks. Will check it out.
I'm sorry you lost your job pal. Better luck next time eh.
A drug that cures the disease is equally hard to find and possibly very expensive to make (especially if its antivirals). Hence, they are looking at re-purposing old drugs such as hydroxychloroquine and Remdesivir. They are already regulatory approved and have readily set up manufacturing infrastructure to do the kind of mass production this world needs.
The cost of buying or producing the cure/vaccine is very important. If it is too expensive, NICE/NHS may not be able to subsidise it fully so not everybody may have access to this cure equally.
Health economics is a bastard.
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I would guess that Oxford people know best about the sort of work they have done and the possible obstacles. All of the others (not directly familiar with the work done) are merely speculating and making educated guesses based on what they think is true regarding the virus.
Once again, I am interested in knowing how can a rando on the internet be certain that there will not be a vaccine ready in 2+ years if there is a team of scientists thinking that it will be in six months? Ok, it genuinely being six months would be too-good-to-be-true news, but how arrogant must you be to write it off outright?
At the same time, we are unsure even regarding basic things, such as the death rate and if one can get reinfected. This is also another reason why opinions difer - no hard data means more room for speculation.
A good article on the BBC about reinfection today. Most interesting is the answer to those who questioned why there are no antibodies in the blood of some recovered patients. They didn't need them.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200421-will-we-ever-be-immune-to-covid-19
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200421-will-we-ever-be-immune-to-covid-19
They've got a vaccine ready for its first series of human clinical trials. That trial is scheduled to run for 6 months (with a follow-up at 12 months). If the trial goes as planned, with immunity being demonstrated in the immunised group and no significant side-effects, they can say, "we've got a vaccine." That would be in the autumn.
That wouldn't mean the whole country could then be vaccinated though. The trial is limited to the generally healthy, not-pregnant, between 18-55 etc - in effect the highest risk groups aren't there. Issues of interactions with other drugs, impact of comorbidities etc, effectiveness (and safety) in older age groups won't be available at that stage. Nor will they know if there are any side-effects that take longer than 6 months to appear, or indeed how long the vaccine is effective for.
So yes, autumn if things go well, but even if things go well, it won't be ready for everyone (even if the factories can make it that fast). Maybe it will be ready for a more targeted campaign like for care/health and some other workers who can't readily adopt social distancing.
That’s a good article. The possibility of being immune without producing antibodies makes a lot of sense. We’ve always thought kids must get asymptomatic illness but the serology data out of Iceland is finding no kids producing antibodies at all. So it’s possible they’re being exposed but not seroconverting. Cell mediated immunity can fight off infections without the need for antibodies. So sars-cov2 might be particularly vulnerable to the type of cell mediated immunity that is more active in kids than adults.
The whole thing is really kind of fascinating. Even though it’s also horrifying!
I know exactly what you mean. I've never shown an interest in virology etc to be honest, but even though most of it goes over my head it's very very interesting stuff despite being scary as well.
Bugger, that's actually bad news because now it means we can't distinguish between who is still able to transmit covid and who isn't.
Some countries are trying the BCG vaccine to see if it works. In theory it may work so India, Vietnam and even in UWA in Australia are trying it in trials. Incidentally in some small Asian countries everyone gets a BCG vaccine and a Polio vaccine at birth. Maldives is a good example. It looks like at this moment in time, they have about 86 confirmed cases and half are foreigners and 16 recovered and fortunately at this moment in time no deaths. But this figure is going to rise for sure as more people are tested. The good news maybe no deaths (so far). If and there is a big IF it is the BCG that seems to keep this under control then it is very good news. As far as the information I had from all these who has been tested positive only one man of 80 years is in ICU and he has had past complications of various underlying causes including a stroke and pneumonia too.
Sri Lanka has 310 positive cases and 7 deaths including some foreigners in this 7. From the 310 already 100 have recovered.
Sri Lanka has 310 positive cases and 7 deaths including some foreigners in this 7. From the 310 already 100 have recovered.
I watched this again the other night - genuinely chilling how some of the same things are occuring - Those who are dismissing the possibility or impact of a second wave should watch this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0blmn5l/the-flu-that-killed-50-million
Thankfully our medical support should be more advanced now but I still wince when I see Hospital staff and carers going around with just paper masks.
It's interesting how even now estimates of the death toll of the "spanish Flu" vary between 50 and 100 million people.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0blmn5l/the-flu-that-killed-50-million
Thankfully our medical support should be more advanced now but I still wince when I see Hospital staff and carers going around with just paper masks.
It's interesting how even now estimates of the death toll of the "spanish Flu" vary between 50 and 100 million people.
I have just seen the preview image for that and it has already put me off.
We really shouldn't head down that path... There's already a global shortage of BCG even without the COVID-19 demand
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(18)30474-1/fulltext
"Just" the 600 odd deaths today. Yesterday was over 800 so that seems promising given the trend seems to be increase of deaths throughout the week if I've been following the trend correctly.
We really shouldn't head down that path... There's already a global shortage of BCG even without the COVID-19 demand
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(18)30474-1/fulltext
It is clutching at straws and if it shows it helps then we will go down that path. It is not that BCG is an effective cure but what they are testing is to see if BCG controls the immune system to attack the virus at the right level and not overload the system and control the cytokine that is secreted. I think this overloading by the immune system is what kills most people and not the virus itself. This is what these trials are for.
About 50 countries are on the verge of famine due to the virus. This is a horrifying analysis by the UN.
https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000114546/download/
Millions could die from hunger in the coming months.
https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000114546/download/
Millions could die from hunger in the coming months.
Where do you get your updates from, you seem to be on the ball as BBC havent even mentioned it yet online?