Yes indeed as the strains are genetically quite similar. There's so very few of these that have made the animal to human transmission that it feels a little tricky to generalize how they react to selection pressure.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Yes indeed as the strains are genetically quite similar. There's so very few of these that have made the animal to human transmission that it feels a little tricky to generalize how they react to selection pressure.
Couldn't the tests improve with more time and more data?
https://www.sccl.nhs.uk/letter-of-entrustment.pdf
What is this letter from Matt Hancock actually saying and are there any real world conflict of interests or things to be concerned about?
Two bits of interest:
And
How does the Health Secretary get to wholly own a company that manages NHS supply chains, procurement etc? Apologies if old news.
Edit: Plenty on a Twitter about this and how 5,000 public sector contracts were novated to this private company and that some of the procurement issues we are seeing now could be as a result of these supply chains being turned upside down.
What is this letter from Matt Hancock actually saying and are there any real world conflict of interests or things to be concerned about?
Two bits of interest:
And
How does the Health Secretary get to wholly own a company that manages NHS supply chains, procurement etc? Apologies if old news.
Edit: Plenty on a Twitter about this and how 5,000 public sector contracts were novated to this private company and that some of the procurement issues we are seeing now could be as a result of these supply chains being turned upside down.
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Could you sum up in a couple of sentences what you think is most likely to happen?
Not what could happen (it will be like Dengue Fever and end civilisation), but what you think will happen.
Publishing something on the back of 100 tests was always a bit ridiculous to be honest.
They could improve but the sort of reliability you’d need for this passport is very very unlikely. Even if the test has 99% specificity, which would be remarkable, one out of every 100 passports would be assigned to someone with no immunity. Scale that up to a population and that’s not a working proposition.
Depending on the cost of the test, one possible way is to do what the army does with HIV tests, basically doing it 3-5 times on the same person, requiring they pass all of them before giving them a green light.
That is if it ever reaches 99% specificity of course.
I think the most likely scenario is that this ends up as a perennial epidemic, peaking every year, for the next few years. Possibly indefinitely.
There’s a good chance it will get less lethal over time and I do think we’ll eventually develop medicines that reduce mortality. I also think we’ll eventually develop some sort of useful vaccine (which may need annual boosters) but this will take several years.
Yes. Good point. Hadn’t even thought of that! 99% specificity repeated several times would be pretty damn reliable.
Has this been posted yet?
My partner has just learned that a good friend of hers died last week as a result of complications from coronavirus. He was only 38.
He suffered from a type of lung cancer when he was younger and (in spite of it) was a heavy smoker. But it's still devastating how a fit young man who from the outside looked healthy and full of energy not too long ago, succumbed to an infection where most people under 40 would only go on to have a mild version of it, if any.
He suffered from a type of lung cancer when he was younger and (in spite of it) was a heavy smoker. But it's still devastating how a fit young man who from the outside looked healthy and full of energy not too long ago, succumbed to an infection where most people under 40 would only go on to have a mild version of it, if any.
Agreed
Coronaviruses mutate much more slowly that influenza.
Sounds right to me. I do have some confidence that we will get a vaccine sooner than several years, with the proviso that it is far from a foregone conclusion.
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Yep, it's a scare-mongering headline. Of course infections are coming back when lockdown ends, anyone who thinks a country is going to hit zero deaths and zero infections then get on with their normal lives is a child, basically. I hate this type of scare-mongering journalism. We all know its here for a long time, that's not the point.
I don't know, I can only assume that it's because there isn't actually a travel ban in a lot of countries. It's something that's highly discouraged but not it's not exactly a ban. There was a poster in here a few pages back who flew home to the UK from Switzerland but a few posts before him, someone from Switzerland/Italy claimed the Swiss borders were completely closed apart from key workers. Which is clearly not completely true. Could they have possibly come over to Ireland on the ferry rather than flying? Perhaps they are dual citizens or something? (Unsure if that can actually be a thing with Ireland/UK, just asking).
Brilliant news, good on Lithuania.
Are there any real risks with what appears to be a very rushed vaccination program? Especially considering we're talking about mass vaccination?
I get a flu jab every year so I'm certainly not anti-vac but I'd be a tad concerned with this if it appears within the year.
I get a flu jab every year so I'm certainly not anti-vac but I'd be a tad concerned with this if it appears within the year.
The EU has set out the rules for any apps that operate on it's territory. Users will input anonymous health data and GPS will be blocked, the phones will just record all bluetooth signals they pick up on their travels and then alert you if one of them tests positive for the virus. Installation is voluntary and all apps must be able to communicate with any other across Europe. The voluntary bit sounds worrying with some populations thinking they know better than everybody else.
Italy is rolling their national version out in the next couple of weeks.
Italy is rolling their national version out in the next couple of weeks.
I suppose the biggest risk is that it doesn't help(!) Either the virus mutates or the vaccine was too rushed to be effective for everyone.
I'm also curious as to whether countries such as Germany having far fewer cases/deaths exposes them to a second wave more when the lock-down ends. I know us getting hit this bad is terrible, but I'm hoping that means the silver lining is we wouldn't be victim of a second wave. But I'm not too educated on the "herd immunity" theory so I can't speak for it I guess.
The regulators will do their best to fast track approval but ultimately they won’t let anything on the market that isn’t safe and effective. We’re MUCH more likely to have to wait several years for a good vaccine than have a bad one rushed out quickly.
More like every year or possibly every 6 months
As somebody who doesn't have medical training, even if I was to buy one of them, how would I know when I'm in "danger?" Does it simply say, "ok" or "too low?" Or would you need an understanding of the numbers involved?
So it seems that the ferry route is still open between U.K. and Ireland. That would tie in with people seeing a lot of English tourists with caravans too. Crazy!
I love this thread guys have been following it religiously for weeks now it has become part of my daily routine to read through the 4-10 pages of new posts. I say daily, it was nightly but that was not helping my anxiety issues so it's become my breakfast reading material.
I avoid "the news" as much as possible and have done for years so a source like this with reasoned and logical debate and discussion has been invaluable.
I am really pinning my hopes on this being an unprecedented and universal situation that means not only is science naturally at it's most advanced point but that there has never been as much urgency and value attached to developing a vaccine that we can find a forumla in a fraction of what to this point has been considered standard time frame.
I avoid "the news" as much as possible and have done for years so a source like this with reasoned and logical debate and discussion has been invaluable.
I am really pinning my hopes on this being an unprecedented and universal situation that means not only is science naturally at it's most advanced point but that there has never been as much urgency and value attached to developing a vaccine that we can find a forumla in a fraction of what to this point has been considered standard time frame.
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On a related note, do you think those medicines will be available in over-the-counter versions? Would be nice to imagine that in the future most of us can deal with a case of this by a couple of days in bed with something equivalent to paracetemol that we have a stock of in the bathroom cabinet.
It’s pretty easy to understand. It’s the % of oxygenated blood. Would usually be 95%+. You can check your own baseline when you get it. Then if you get sick, feel the infection has gone to your chest and your sats start dropping (say <90%) then that’s a warning that you need to go to hospital (or at least call 111 or your GP)
Understood. But I have mentioned before that I would like to see a proper investigation into exactly how this virus started and whoever or whatever held accountable. Both for the huge suffering as well as the economic problems.
I don't think coronavirus mutate very quickly so we'd need to be vaccinated less regularly than for something like seasonal flu, which does mutate quickly.
I’d say that’s extremely unlikely. None of the systemic antivirals developed so far are available OTC. To be honest, availability as a tablet (as opposed to intravenous) would be the best we could hope for.
I also think they will probably only be used in hospitalised patients anyway. If you’re not sick enough to go to hospital then your best bet is just sweating it out. Antiviral often come with pretty unpleasant side effects. We’ve had antivirals for flu for ages but the vast majority of people would never have taken them.
@Pogue Mahone can you recommend an oximeter? I wouldn’t know what to look for.
also would I need to know my baseline first?
Edit: sorry see you answered that bit before
also would I need to know my baseline first?
Edit: sorry see you answered that bit before
I have one on my Garmin watch, so I'd guess most sport watches or Apple watch / different smartwatches have that kind of option these days. Just need to put the watch on and it indicates the level within a few minutes, usually I'm at 95% or something like that.
Dunno if you want a real oximeter though.
@everyone
I don’t have any brand to recommend. Just went on Amazon and looked for lots of positive reviews. Same way you’d buy any bit of tech really!
I don’t have any brand to recommend. Just went on Amazon and looked for lots of positive reviews. Same way you’d buy any bit of tech really!
Thread
There we go then, makes sense. As I said before, the government have 'strongly discouraged' non-essential travel yet it's not a ban. If you have a flight booked somewhere and the airline hasn't cancelled it, you can go. I mean, the vast majority have cancelled of course, goes without saying.
Its similar to 'at risk' people thinking they're forbidden from leaving the house during lockdown. It's strongly advised that they stay indoors but it's not law. My mother keeps dropping that into conversation - "oh I wish I could go for a little walk in the evening but I'm not allowed to leave the house". I keep trying to tell her that when I do her food shopping, I see a good few people much older than her doing theirs because some people have no choice. Same goes for my evening hikes, I often see couples in their 70s and 80s (judging by their appearance) going fro a walk. For her, and many others, it's been processed as law rather than a strong suggestion.
Personally I think the messaging needs to be clearer and stronger. But that’s just my opinion.
I think it’s crazy that Ireland are accepting incoming ferries full of Easter tourists from the U.K. which has a much higher spread of infection
That was me. Borders are closed between Italy and Switzerland to most people, but as a resident/citizen of another country you are always allowed to travel home if you can find a way to do it.
Well here is my second question, if everybody gets vaccinated at once, wouldn't the virus just die out? It came from a bat, its not as if its easily caught from nature etc
Just done the oxygen levels on my galaxy S10, 92%. Not a clue what it means though
Whenever news on corona vaccine comes out I tend to get a bit confused. The Oxford people are rather confident that one could be ready by autumn, some are saying we'll have one by summer or late next year whilst others are of the opinion that vaccines for coronaviruses are incredibly hard to develop and that there may not be a vaccine at all.
Could someone who knows a bit about this explain why there have been differences in opinion even amongst the best experts out there?
Could someone who knows a bit about this explain why there have been differences in opinion even amongst the best experts out there?