It’s the 1000 cases new a day in Lombardy that has me curious. In a region under total, very strict, lockdown. Could that realistically all still be spread within households? Or is something else going on?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
It’s the 1000 cases new a day in Lombardy that has me curious. In a region under total, very strict, lockdown. Could that realistically all still be spread within households? Or is something else going on?
Comments closed on yt. More dislikes than likes.
I really thought the battle against racism and xenophobia was almost won in britain in the 90s and 00s. How wrong I was.
Link? I saw he is the co discover of HIV, and a Nobel laureate. But just found bits and pieces in different videos.
It’s crazy. The rise of Trump and the Brexit crew has enabled them to crawl out from under their rocks.
You have to understand, it's very difficult to have a strategy when you're winging it.
"Let us back into the tarantula enclosure!" Demand peasants covered in tarantula luring jam.
"We must give the people what they want" says the man who sells tickets to the 'Watch peasants being eaten by horny tarantulas' show.
Thanks Wibbs. I'm not inclined to believe this is man made but are you able to help me better understand his argument?
I don't find his first point about Yunnan compelling, maybe I'm misunderstanding it or it's worded badly but viruses and animals, especially ones that fly aren't known for their respect of political geography. If it's due to things like different ecosystems between the provinces I'd understand but these two places aren't that far away from each other.
The second point I'm just not knowledgeable enough. 20 - 50 years sounds like a long timeline but couldn't this be accelerated in a lab setting? How many generations of evolution does this represent for a coronavirus (that might be a better quantification for me)?
That means nothing (comments, like to dislike ratio).
All you need to have to soil a video in that way is an interested party with a sufficient number of time/access to companies that will spam downvote a video.
For what its worth, the majority of children's videos on yt have a negative like to dislike rate and didabled comments.
I'd have to read it again but I think the point is that the virus in the lab can't be the source of Covid-19 because SARS-Cov-2 has taken 20-50 years of evolution to be in its current form. The virus held in the lab is the original virus RaTG13 so it can't have been an accidental release. The conspiracy theory that the lab were genetically engineering the virus also doesn't hold water as you couldn't possibly replicate 20-50 years of gradual evolution in a lab - it would look very different if engineered. Not that there is anyone not wearing (or listening to someone who is wearing) a tin foil hat who thinks this is what happened.
It is virtually certain that RaTG13 or a closely related virus passed from bats to another host and that the virus then jumped to humans from that host. Some evolution of the virus could have occurred in bats that were isolated from the original bat population that still has RaTG13 and then presumably further evolution occurred once the intermediate host was infected, but we will need to find the intermediate host to know this. Pangolins are the best guess at the moment but we just don't know what the intermediate host is yet. The chances are that we will eventually find an animal with a viruses very close to SARS-CoV-2.
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Link also here : https://mega.nz/file/rxs3CaJJ#8wth6thR2bmsu9HwOdAz82F4Z6n8l2d3hyG-fAKJBwE
Minutes of New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) 21 Feb: Corona threat "moderate"
minute 2.4 on page 5:
PH asked the committee if anyone thought that the PHE risk assessment should change. No objections were raised however after the meeting, JE emailed to say that he was online but for some technical reason could not be heard. JE believes that the risk to the UK population (in the PHE risk assessment) should be high, as there is evidence of ongoing transmission in Korea, Japan and Singapore, as well as in China.
Cheers. Reading the minutes it seems like a failing of the risk level scale. NERVTAG's analysis of the situation looks relatively accurate, but
"Some members commented that there may be sustained transmission outside of Mainland China. Others commented that there is plenty of scope for escalation in the UK and this would be an argument to keep the assessment as moderate rather than high at this time."
The current level is "high" which suggests they only had one more card to play at the time (moderate to high). My interpretation is that they believed moving to high at the point would stymie them for further escalation, rather than it being an unfair reflection. It's frustrating that this single and low-precision recommendation seems to have trumped all of the underlying information. I'm sure it was being communicated, but not driven home to laymen.
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To be fair, plenty of ethnic minorities spent the 90's and 00's screaming about how racism was alive and well but nobody believed us. It's only through the connectivity of the internet that we've been afforded the opportunity to collate and present evidence. Basically these sentiments were always there, the internet has just turned the volume up for both sides.
Why don't they drive to DC and ask their Lord Leader to set them all free from the clutches of this evil State Governors. And they also can shake the hands of the Lord Leader to prove to the world that this is all a hoax.
@Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær
A small caveat is that I work with bacteria not viruses, but I think the same principles apply.
The way we do genetic changes is to target a particuar region of the genome and replace it. This could be an entire gene or a single letter at one position. Natural selection does not work like that.
During normal propogation of any species, there are random changes at random positions throughout the genome. Most of them don't stick - some are harmful, others have no fitness effect but simply disappear during random sampling to form the next generation. For this, imagine if a virus with some mutations that have no effect on its activity infected someone living totally alone. After that person fully recovers or dies that strain of the virus never gets a chance to spread, and that particular mutational strain vanishes. The same vanishing can happen for many many reasons.
Some of the mutations do stick - again, due to random sampling to form the next generation (say, a particular strain happens to infect a super-spreader), these become widespread. The rarest of mutations involve those that do impact the function of the virus in a positive way. This beneficial mutation at that same spot coud possibly be generated artificially in a lab studying the virus.
But because in natural evolution there are mutations everywhere compared to what you started with, this final extra-virulent virus will not resemble a lab strain, which will have only the mutation under study. In fact, if we study a particular mutation and accidentally create more mutations elsewhere, the study becomes invalid since we can't say for sure which mutation is doing what.
Because we know the background rate of mutations per generation and we know roughly how many generations per year, we have a rough estimate of how much the total number of mutations should be. That's how that professor was able to give an estimate of 50 years.
I hope this makes sense!
A small caveat is that I work with bacteria not viruses, but I think the same principles apply.
The way we do genetic changes is to target a particuar region of the genome and replace it. This could be an entire gene or a single letter at one position. Natural selection does not work like that.
During normal propogation of any species, there are random changes at random positions throughout the genome. Most of them don't stick - some are harmful, others have no fitness effect but simply disappear during random sampling to form the next generation. For this, imagine if a virus with some mutations that have no effect on its activity infected someone living totally alone. After that person fully recovers or dies that strain of the virus never gets a chance to spread, and that particular mutational strain vanishes. The same vanishing can happen for many many reasons.
Some of the mutations do stick - again, due to random sampling to form the next generation (say, a particular strain happens to infect a super-spreader), these become widespread. The rarest of mutations involve those that do impact the function of the virus in a positive way. This beneficial mutation at that same spot coud possibly be generated artificially in a lab studying the virus.
But because in natural evolution there are mutations everywhere compared to what you started with, this final extra-virulent virus will not resemble a lab strain, which will have only the mutation under study. In fact, if we study a particular mutation and accidentally create more mutations elsewhere, the study becomes invalid since we can't say for sure which mutation is doing what.
Because we know the background rate of mutations per generation and we know roughly how many generations per year, we have a rough estimate of how much the total number of mutations should be. That's how that professor was able to give an estimate of 50 years.
I hope this makes sense!
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Not even Sweden.
1.9 million out 4.7 million houses.
https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/sverige-i-siffror/manniskorna-i-sverige/hushall-i-sverige/
Still alot but not 50%
Here's what the guardian wrote about China on a quick google : guardian - China - corona
China denies cover-up as Wuhan coronavirus deaths revised .
China clamping down on coronavirus research, deleted pages ...
China steps up western media campaign over coronavirus ...
Life after lockdown: has China really beaten coronavirus ...
China reports zero daily deaths from coronavirus for the first ...
China sees a new wave of xenophobia - The Guardian
China gets a glimpse of life on the other side of coronavirus ...
China's coronavirus lockdown strategy: brutal but effective ...
Coronavirus chaos could strengthen China's debt hold on ...
The new normal': China's excessive coronavirus public ...
China's coronavirus health code apps raise concerns over ...
Duck evolution over time
Duck evolution with genetic engineering
I may be skimming over the detail slightly
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In a worldwide pandemic with everyone being equal in front of the virus, you'd think people would show some form of unity.
This is what I managed to find:
https://medicaldialogues.in/laborat...ent-zero-was-lab-employee-claims-report-64983
"Just in case you don't know. Dr Montagnier has been rolling downhill incredibly fast in the last few years. From baselessly defending homeopathy to becoming an antivaxxer. Whatever he says, just don't believe him," tweeted Juan Carlos Gabaldon.
And as far as I know his claims that parts of HIV and Malaria (not an actual virus BTW) have been found in the SARS-CoV-2 virus genome are baseless. I think we can file this one under Tin foil hat/Batshit crazy and move on.
Unity?! Not for something as annoying as a virus. I'm feeling far more irritable than normal, not the other way around.
I think it's the tail end of household transmission, but also some new cases. The government estimated cases were 10x higher at one point, down to about 5x now, so it's likely there will still be a few people passing it around. Ministers keep complaining that whilst people are respecting the rules for the most part there are still too many people around at certain times, and care homes are still popping up with new outbreaks.
I have a few questions, which you with a background in microbe evolution might be able to answer.
My limited understanding leads me to believe that bacteria/viruses evolve constantly in small ways. Does that mean there and hundreds of thousands of different COVID-19 strains currently circulating? Or must there be X amount of mutations in a single virus for it to be classified as a new strain?
Also, if there are more than one strain, does that mean a potential vaccine needs to be adjusted so that it can safeguard someone against all these different strains? If so, doesn't that mean scientists have an impossible task on their hands, because by the time a vaccine hits the market the viruses have mutated yet again?
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Just read that Novak Djokovic is an anti-vaxxer.
Apparently his wife is into the 5G stuff too.
Apparently his wife is into the 5G stuff too.
Human nature goes the other way. Retrenchment and look after yourself. I mean look at supposedly friendly countries squabbling over equipment. Is it any surprise the citizens are at it too?
Is it a surprise? Always was always has been. When the stake is down it's dog eat dog. The only question is how far down you'd have to go before you eat the dog next to you.
Quick thanks to everyone for the comments on the situation I posted about. I won’t quote them all but the ideas and thoughts are appreciated.
My mum works in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services and spends her days assessing young people that have attempted to commit suicide amongst other things. I think knowing this and knowing she would try and get inside his head to help, it’s cemented the fact that he hasn’t spoken about it with my sister, although I suppose most considering suicide don’t speak about it and that’s the issue. My mum has been giving my sister some ways to subliminally acknowledge what’s going on and ways to make things better.
He’s been in the garden making it a project the last week so we’ve all chipped in and had a decent BBQ delivered which he was apparently emotional over. Anyway, this will hopefully be the last time I reference the situation!
My mum works in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services and spends her days assessing young people that have attempted to commit suicide amongst other things. I think knowing this and knowing she would try and get inside his head to help, it’s cemented the fact that he hasn’t spoken about it with my sister, although I suppose most considering suicide don’t speak about it and that’s the issue. My mum has been giving my sister some ways to subliminally acknowledge what’s going on and ways to make things better.
He’s been in the garden making it a project the last week so we’ve all chipped in and had a decent BBQ delivered which he was apparently emotional over. Anyway, this will hopefully be the last time I reference the situation!
I'm not fully across what constitutes a new strain but although I have seen reference to 2 or more strains of SARS-CoV-2 I'm not sure that this is correct as I've seen references to clusters of genetic variation (which i'm assuming is less that that required to call something a new strain). Whatever the case everything I've read this weeks seems to suggest that the virus is evolving slowly enough to allow a general vaccine to be developed.
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Thanks, so a new strain is then probably similar to a whole new species in evolutionary lingo? It happens over a very long time (much quicker for microbes obviously) after multiple mutations.
The good news is that a) it appears to be mutating slowly and b) that it can't recombine with another virus or virus strain as easily as influenza can which reduces the chance of rapid change.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-...cov-2-genome-is-good-news-for-a-vaccine-67319
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-...cov-2-genome-is-good-news-for-a-vaccine-67319
I think in virology species is higher up. I'm not sure how much genetic divergence is necessary to classify something as a new strain as strain isn't part of the official nomenclature hierarchy. I'm sure this is my ignorance rather than any problem with the term strain. I'm nt sure how much this diagram helps but I'm thinking that strain may = Individuum. That is a guess BTW.
Thankfully not everyone is like that, I've always seen some incredibly sefless gestures too. I suppose tough times always bring out the true nature of people. Assholes will be assholes or something
Christ, they are like a cult. Right-wing America really does love spitting in the face of science and logic on a regular basis.
I feel for those who say they are suffering because they can't work. I certainly get that aspect of it. But this whole "I ain't scared" noise is truly terrifying.
I think that strain means the it has differences in physical make up (phenotype) from other strains e.g. the antigen is different which isn't necessarily correlated to the degree of genome variation i.e. genetic variation alone isn't enough, there needs to be a physical differences for it to be called a new strain. Which may mean that strain = Individuum. I'm still not 100% clear if there are more than 1 strain of SARS-CoV-2 or if the variations being called strains are in fact genetic differences but not with enough phenotype differences to be a new strain.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3535543/
"a (natural) virus strain is a “variant of a given virus that is recognizable because it possesses some unique phenotypic characteristics that remain stable under natural conditions” [emphasis added by the authors]. Such “unique phenotypic characteristics” are biological properties different from the compared reference virus, such as unique antigenic properties, host range or the signs of disease it causes. Importantly, as Van Regenmortel points out, a virus variant with a simple “difference in genome sequence…is not given the status of a separate strain since there is no recognizable distinct viral phenotype”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3535543/
"a (natural) virus strain is a “variant of a given virus that is recognizable because it possesses some unique phenotypic characteristics that remain stable under natural conditions” [emphasis added by the authors]. Such “unique phenotypic characteristics” are biological properties different from the compared reference virus, such as unique antigenic properties, host range or the signs of disease it causes. Importantly, as Van Regenmortel points out, a virus variant with a simple “difference in genome sequence…is not given the status of a separate strain since there is no recognizable distinct viral phenotype”
What is bothering me most about this, is the fact that for many viruses we never manage to develop a working and lasting vaccine. Like HIV, Ebola etc. So maybe mutation like Spanish Flu to H1N1 or something might be what lets us return to normal. Hoping for a vaccine but more and more "experts" are saying in media that one can not guarantee that we will succeed with that, so getting skeptical. Good that we have internet in these times though 
So what's going on in Sweden then?
On the one hand I see this:
On the other hand I see this:
I note that a country like Belgium which locked down early has more deaths than Sweden but I also note that Belgium include nursing home and non-hospital deaths in their figures, with hospital deaths making up less than half their total, so I'm not sure what the figures in Sweden represent exactly.
On the one hand I see this:
On the other hand I see this:
I note that a country like Belgium which locked down early has more deaths than Sweden but I also note that Belgium include nursing home and non-hospital deaths in their figures, with hospital deaths making up less than half their total, so I'm not sure what the figures in Sweden represent exactly.