SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Another aspect of COVID - effect on the different militaries.

We woke up to this news this morning -

https://www.varmatin.com/faits-de-s...-symbole-dune-epidemie-toujours-active-497327

Sorry it's in French, but 668 positive tests ( with 500 results still to come ) from the crew of, arguably, the French Navy's biggest, best known warship.

Conspiracy theorists are already speculating what would / could happen if there were similar circumstances amongst the UK, US and other NATO navys.
 
Smores said:
Crisis of our lifetime and yet some don't think there should be any political debate around it :wenger:
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That's not what i said. Just that we should put the stream of Twitter nonsense somewhere else.
 
sun_tzu said:
Thanks - I had just assumed the clinical trials etc would take a year or so unles it was a pre approved drug for something else - good therapuitc drugs would potentially alleviate signifigant stress from health services so fingers crossed some progress can happen there fairly rapidly - though as you allude to it seems people are already working at rates not previously thought practical .
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Drug development usually takes several years. This 18 month vaccine timeline getting talked about seems to be creating ludicrous expectations for drug development and there’s enormous pressure on pharma companies and regulators to cut as many corners as possible. So maybe it’s possible to get a novel antiviral to market in record time too? I wouldn’t be top of the queue to take it, mind you. Antivirals are super tough to get right and often super toxic when they go wrong.
 
Wibble said:
Bunnings is a DIY store.

Scott Morrison is the PM. He likes the nickname SCOMO but everyone now calls him Scotty From Marketing, which he hates, after his pathetic showing in the bush fires. The only good thing you can say about him is that he isn't as pure evil as Peter Dutton.
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:lol::lol: That’s class
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
Oh wow! You’ve made me see the error of my ways. You’re right. I was absolutely suggesting that if you clap, you are doing so to make it clear NHS workers don’t need more PPE and that the Tory government is fully endorsed by all.

Take your hand off it.

You’re the fella that could see your star player score an overhead kick from 25 yards in the dying seconds to win a CL final, then walk out before the trophy is presented as he still hasn’t signed a new contract. While also complaining he earns too much already. Loudly. In the car. On your own. Because talksport won’t take your calls anymore.

Get out of your own way, you’ll be happier for it.
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Eh? Most of the people clapping did vote Tory. The point is, junior Doctors would sooner have a payrise and PPE then a clap at this point. The more it goes on, the less so it's about the staff and the more about virtue signalling.

And as for your last point, don't know what you're on about, completely lost me. What does the amount a footballer (in the private sector) is paid, have to do with the NHS? Two entirely different means of funding.
 
Revaulx said:
Worth remembering that during the 72 year lifetime of the NHS, only 27 have been under a Labour government. So that’s 45 years under the Tories. It’s only really in the last ten years of Tory rule that there’s been serious ideological challenge to the NHS ethos.
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This is the result of a global trend in politics. Portuguese NHS is younger, but the love for it is very similar from what I see in the british.

And our "tory" governments were a lot more protective of it in decades past.
 
Looks like the lockdown will be relaxed in Wales after this three weeks

"First Minister Mark Drakeford hopes to lift some of lockdown restrictions when the three-week extension ends on 7 May." (BBC)
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Drug development usually takes several years. This 18 month vaccine timeline getting talked about seems to be creating ludicrous expectations for drug development and there’s enormous pressure on pharma companies and regulators to cut as many corners as possible. So maybe it’s possible to get a novel antiviral to market in record time too? I wouldn’t be top of the queue to take it, mind you. Antivirals are super tough to get right and often super toxic when they go wrong.
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I am assuming if any government wants it rushed through they are pretty much going to have to underwrite the risks (e.g. another thalidomide) otherwise no company will release without certainty (which would take longer trials I guess) Insurance (and again without certainly im not sure an insurance company would want to be on cover for it) or underwriting (presumably at government level or even WHO level)
The more I think about it I think the long term strategy must actually be work on a vaccine and theraputics in the hope that something comes off... but in reality flatten the curve of infection and get herd immunity on the longer term without overwhelming the system (whilst hoping people get lifelong immunity, and any mutations make the disease less deadly)
The vaccine talk seems like a fall back if that does not work and something to give people hope and saving them having to admit that they are really resigned to long term herd immunity unless they get lucky

wasnt there a mers vaccine in development - that still hasnt finished tests (8 years for that one)
 
Its weird that I agree with Trump but his point of finding better ways of treating the disease rather than miracle vaccines really stands out to me.
Now, theres an overwhelming chance that its bullshit that ive fallen for and im on the first rung of hating Mexicans but it makes sense to me
 
Full bodied red said:
Another aspect of COVID - effect on the different militaries.

We woke up to this news this morning -

https://www.varmatin.com/faits-de-s...-symbole-dune-epidemie-toujours-active-497327

Sorry it's in French, but 668 positive tests ( with 500 results still to come ) from the crew of, arguably, the French Navy's biggest, best known warship.

Conspiracy theorists are already speculating what would / could happen if there were similar circumstances amongst the UK, US and other NATO navys.
Click to expand...

You didn't really woke up to that news? The reason it is back is because many members of the crew were suspected to be infected and something like 50 were positive 10 days ago. Also it has already happened to the US, the Theodore Roosevelt being an example.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your...lt-sparked-by-flight-crews-officials-believe/
 
Arruda said:
This is the result of a global trend in politics. Portuguese NHS is younger, but the love for it is very similar from what I see in the british.

And our "tory" governments were a lot more protective of it in decades past.
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I just don't think you can say Thatcher was more protective of the NHS than recent Tory leaders. I don't think there is any basis in fact, read her and Ken Clarke's autobiography for a sense of her view, and then Cameron's for his. You can also look at the funding.

Edit: Sorry, I think you were talking about Portugal!
 
Full bodied red said:
A lot of luck and bad luck involved with COVID.

Kenney Dalgleish survives, Norman Hunter doesn't.
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Hunter had health issues prior to this. While we’re on the Leeds of old, Sir Bobby’s brother Jack hasn’t been well for a number of years now
 
JPRouve said:
You didn't really woke up to that news? The reason it is back is because many members of the crew were suspected to be infected and something like 50 were positive 10 days ago. Also it has already happened to the US, the Theodore Roosevelt being an example.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your...lt-sparked-by-flight-crews-officials-believe/
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Yes we did...

We woke up to fact that almost 700 have now tested positive - a bit of a jump from the 50-something announced last week.

Maybe we just don't read the same papers or watch the same TV channels and so we missed updates.

I didn't know about the Theodore Roosevelt though, but then again I wasn't looking for news about the effects of COVID on the military.
 
Smores said:
Crisis of our lifetime and yet some don't think there should be any political debate around it :wenger:

I'm sorry but the correlation between political opinion expressed within the current event forums over the last couple of years and those who don't want any governmental scrutiny seems to paint a very clear picture of intention.
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The implications for football are being discussed in a separate thread.

Leave the football out of this thread.

Also the politics.
 
BootsyCollins said:


So what so you guys think of this? Suggest that smoking actually protect you against Covid-19. Says its not a case closed ofcourse but still...
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Did you read the first reply?
its from somebody at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_Spring_Harbor_Laboratory

Which seems to raise some issues with the study

Review of: Smoking, vaping and hospitalization for COVID-19
The reviewer(s) rated it 2/5




Jason Sheltzer1

Author(s) details
This preprint contrasts two statistics: according to a survey conducted by the WHO, ~27% of people in China are smokers. If you look at coronavirus hospital admissions in China, fewer than 27% are smokers. Ergo, the paper suggests, smoking may protect against COVID19.

This comparison assumes that the definition of smoker is constant. But, that assumption is wrong. One paper included in this analysis (Chen et al.) actually uses a cut-off of 30 pack-years (219,000 cigarettes!) to identify smokers. They aren’t recording all smokers, just heavy smokers. This 30 pack-year threshold was not used in the WHO national survey that produced the 27% estimate, so it’s absolutely wrong to directly compare these two values as if they’re measuring the same thing.

In order to further investigate, I emailed the authors of some of the studies on COVID-19 in China. One doctor (on this manuscript: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3543584) replied that their smoking frequency was so low because some patients were literally too sick to ask: “In our paper on COVID-19 characteristics, many patients cannot answer questions about whether to smoke because of their older age and serious illness. Therefore, the proportion of smoking in patients with COVID-19 is low.”

These two examples highlight the first problem with this preprint: it’s clear that in these studies, the definition of a smoker is neither consistent nor consistently applied. You can’t throw them all on a graph and call it a meta-analysis.

The second problem is that it’s absolutely wrong to assume that “27%” is an appropriate base rate for comparisons. To see this, take a look at Table 3 of Guan et al. (Eur Respir J.) from this preprint. They report the frequency of various comorbidities among Chinese patients, broken out between ever-smokers and never-smokers. In their analysis, only 13% of COPD patients, 8% of hypertensives, and 10% of people with cardiovascular disease are ever-smokers. Assuming a base rate of 27% smokers in China, this analysis would falsely suggest that smoking protects against lung and heart disease!

The best approach would be to look at the frequency of smoking in a defined cohort of patients who are tested and found to be either positive or negative for COVID-19. That way you can apply a consistent definition of “smoker” and get an accurate base frequency. So far, I can find one published example that directly compares COVID-positive and COVID-negative patients: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25763. In this study (not cited by the preprint), 19% of COVID-positive patients were smokers and 15% of COVID-negative patients were smokers. This data argues that smoking does not actually protect against coronavirus infections. Additionally, it shows that when hospitals are directly recording smoking statuses, they observe the prevalence of smoking to be below 27%.

Similarly, if you compare patients with critical and mild COVID-19, multiple studies indicate that smoking is strongly associated with severe infections. In one recent cohort, 62% of severe cases were smokers, compared to only 10% of mild cases: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029397v1.full.pdf.

So, I think that the analysis in this preprint is severely flawed. They’re comparing statistics that shouldn’t be compared. The Chen et al. study should be removed and the Zhu et al. study should be added and addressed. In short, I don’t think that there’s any convincing evidence to suggest that smoking protects against coronavirus.
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Full bodied red said:
Yes we did...

We woke up to fact that almost 700 have now tested positive - a bit of a jump from the 50-something announced last week.

Maybe we just don't read the same papers or watch the same TV channels and so we missed updates.

I didn't know about the Theodore Roosevelt though, but then again I wasn't looking for news about the effects of COVID on the military.
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Well, it's a small place where 1700 crew members are very close from eachothers, the vast majority will be positive.
 
sun_tzu said:
Did you read the first reply?
its from somebody at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_Spring_Harbor_Laboratory

Which seems to raise some issues with the study
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thanks for the link.
i dont belive smoking protects against Covid-19, but then again i know nothing about this at all, as most of us.
But ive heard someone mentioned before so though i shared the tweet.
the first reply for me is this guy :


i have no idea who he is btw.
 
Okay, im probably gonna get flamed for this but ive been watching this thread since the start and its been very informative. One downside for me though has been the constant politicising by various posters along the lines of 'tory cuts, austerity, clapping supports tory rhetoric etc etc.'

Now i may be blinkered, blind, deaf to the truth etc. But genuinly i dont see how any governments nhs policy past or present has hindered our response to this pandemic. From all reports im hearing, we have not at any point so far been over capacity in our hospitals, other countries with better equipped health services per capita have been overwhelmed {italy and america spring to mind}
It seems lack of ppe has been a worldwide issue as has logistics and supply chain.

Could anyone enlighten me how the 'underfunding' of the nhs has led to any more deaths in this crisis.
@FeedMe you seem to have been very vocal about underfunding in this thread but ive not seen you post anything about sorting out the in efficiency as part of sorting out the problems.

No doubt crash helmet will be needed for the response.
 
So we had a video message from our smug CEO this morning basically just assuming that everything will be back to normal in three weeks time.

Nothing is going to be back to normal until a vaccine is mass produced. How can the CEO of a multi billion pound company be so fecking stupid?
 
Garethw said:
So we had a video message from our smug CEO this morning basically just assuming that everything will be back to normal in three weeks time.

Nothing is going to be back to normal until a vaccine is mass produced. How can the CEO of a multi billion pound company be so fecking stupid?
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he almost certainly isnt stupid if hes CEO of a multi billion pound company ... but rather than giving you an individual running commentary on what his spreadsheet says about when he sacks you and everybody else figured it would be better to send a jaunty little message because somebody piped up about moral when the shareholders were deciding who to cut and when and he agreed to shut them up
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
Looks like the lockdown will be relaxed in Wales after this three weeks

"First Minister Mark Drakeford hopes to lift some of lockdown restrictions when the three-week extension ends on 7 May." (BBC)
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Hopefully that's true, some mild removal of restrictiosn would be a great step in the right direction.
 
worldgonemad said:
Okay, im probably gonna get flamed for this but ive been watching this thread since the start and its been very informative. One downside for me though has been the constant politicising by various posters along the lines of 'tory cuts, austerity, clapping supports tory rhetoric etc etc.'

Now i may be blinkered, blind, deaf to the truth etc. But genuinly i dont see how any governments nhs policy past or present has hindered our response to this pandemic. From all reports im hearing, we have not at any point so far been over capacity in our hospitals, other countries with better equipped health services per capita have been overwhelmed {italy and america spring to mind}
It seems lack of ppe has been a worldwide issue as has logistics and supply chain.

Could anyone enlighten me how the 'underfunding' of the nhs has led to any more deaths in this crisis.
@FeedMe you seem to have been very vocal about underfunding in this thread but ive not seen you post anything about sorting out the in efficiency as part of sorting out the problems.

No doubt crash helmet will be needed for the response.
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Nothing controversial about this post. In my mind, personally, there is an acceptable level of challenge to the government of the day for our situation. I don't expect every hospital to be stocked year round with tens of thousands of units of PPE with a shelf life just in case we are hit by a viral pandemic. However, I don't accept some areas of the NHS having absolutely nothing suitable immediately available. I've seen some blame go to procurement for individual trusts, which may be true, but if they're being faced with budgetary issues to the point they're neglecting PPE then that points to funding issues in some form.

I think it's bad for everyone if the default response is to just accept things as they are. A lot of social media is rampant with people that are too far the other way and I think that desire to do good has the opposite effect as everyone else then digs their heels in.
 
Dante said:
The implications for football are being discussed in a separate thread.

Leave the football out of this thread.

Also the politics.
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Does football have any influence on the handling of this crisis?

Sorry but the ones who are politicising this are the ones trying to artificially remove government from the equation because it makes them uncomfortable to have their world view challenged.
 
BootsyCollins said:


So what so you guys think of this? Suggest that smoking actually protect you against Covid-19. Says its not a case closed ofcourse but still...
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Me right now
V0j52_rTTSMnWCQ0uWK2l_QkYhS_Tsh54kYQDBr824I.jpg
 
Garethw said:
So we had a video message from our smug CEO this morning basically just assuming that everything will be back to normal in three weeks time.

Nothing is going to be back to normal until a vaccine is mass produced. How can the CEO of a multi billion pound company be so fecking stupid?
Click to expand...
sun_tzu said:
he almost certainly isnt stupid if hes CEO of a multi billion pound company ... but rather than giving you an individual running commentary on what his spreadsheet says about when he sacks you and everybody else figured it would be better to send a jaunty little message because somebody piped up about moral when the shareholders were deciding who to cut and when and he agreed to shut them up
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Every CEO sending out the same message! :lol:

 
sun_tzu said:
he almost certainly isnt stupid if hes CEO of a multi billion pound company ... but rather than giving you an individual running commentary on what his spreadsheet says about when he sacks you and everybody else figured it would be better to send a jaunty little message because somebody piped up about moral when the shareholders were deciding who to cut and when and he agreed to shut them up
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Pretty much this. Ours is being quite realistic about things in his weekly updates, he today was highlighting the Chancellors comments that the Government cannot protect every business and every household”. Preparing people for the possible downsizing.
 
worldgonemad said:
Okay, im probably gonna get flamed for this but ive been watching this thread since the start and its been very informative. One downside for me though has been the constant politicising by various posters along the lines of 'tory cuts, austerity, clapping supports tory rhetoric etc etc.'

Now i may be blinkered, blind, deaf to the truth etc. But genuinly i dont see how any governments nhs policy past or present has hindered our response to this pandemic. From all reports im hearing, we have not at any point so far been over capacity in our hospitals, other countries with better equipped health services per capita have been overwhelmed {italy and america spring to mind}
It seems lack of ppe has been a worldwide issue as has logistics and supply chain.

Could anyone enlighten me how the 'underfunding' of the nhs has led to any more deaths in this crisis.
@FeedMe you seem to have been very vocal about underfunding in this thread but ive not seen you post anything about sorting out the in efficiency as part of sorting out the problems.

No doubt crash helmet will be needed for the response.
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Old post by me

Sweet Square said:
Ok just some quick examples.

  • Policies made by other countries before Britain

France

Spain

Denmark

Sweden


Why has it took Britain so long ? Another example, Germany closed it's bars, pubs etc on Monday why did Britain need until today to do the same ?

  • Lack of planning


Government documents show no planning for ventilators in the event of a pandemic



Lack of policy for Renters, self employed and unemployed





And just look at some of the responses by people on here, who have just been fecked over by the latest government statement.


NHS Workers



Testing, Testing Testing



and

Coronavirus: WHO calls for countries to test every case after British government says move 'no longer necessary



  • Boris
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And we've known about lack of ventilators for some time now



Despite the severe failings exposed by Exercise Cygnus, the government’s planning for a future pandemic did not change after December 2016 – at least not formally. The government’s roadmap for how to respond to a coronavirus-like pandemic has long been available online, and the three key documents – the 70-page “Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy”, 78-page “Health and Social Care Influenza Pandemic Preparedness and Response” and 88-page “Pandemic Influenza Response Plan” – were published in 2011, 2012 and 2014 respectively. These plans were tested and failed, yet these documents were not rewritten or revised.

They share a glaring shortcoming: not one of them mentions ventilators, which are now in such high demand that Matthew Hancock, the Health Secretary, told British manufacturers on 14 March, “If you produce a ventilator, we will buy it. No number [you produce] is too high.” He urged firms from Rolls-Royce to JCB to stop what they do and to begin making ventilators.

The government does not have a stockpile of ventilators, as the documents made clear and Hancock has confirmed. All three of the plans refer to stockpiles, but only of antivirals, antibiotics and personal protective equipment for NHS staff. Aside from face masks, the only mention of equipment in Public Health England’s Pandemic Response Plan is to do with IT staff being trained to use smart boards. Medical devices are not mentioned in any of the documents.
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Also

The death of neoliberalism
The global financial crisis laid bare the underlying weaknesses of the neoliberal form of capitalism that has dominated policymaking in the West since the 1980s. But without a clear alternative to take its place, the response was to double down on a broken model. The impact of the crisis, and the austerity policies that followed, fractured the political argument in many countries, and contributed to a series of political earthquakes including Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, and the rise of nativist parties across Europe and beyond.

At the same time, the economics profession has entered a period of intellectual upheaval. Stagnant living standards, sharply rising inequality and environmental breakdown have led growing numbers of economists and commentators – including those in mainstream institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – to acknowledge the shortcomings of free-market orthodoxy.

If neoliberalism was already on life support, then the coronavirus has administered the lethal blow. The pandemic has laid bare the disastrous consequences of decades of privatisation, deregulation and outsourcing in countries like the US and UK, and highlighted the critical importance of strong public services and a well-resourced state bureaucracy. In order to contain the economic fallout from the pandemic, Western countries have ripped up the neoliberal playbook. Market forces have been shunned in favour of economic planning, industrial policy and regulatory controls. Even the IMF, for decades the standard bearer of neoliberal orthodoxy, has floated policy responses that have more in common with the Chinese model of capitalism. In a recent blog, four senior researchers wrote that: “If the crisis worsens, one could imagine the establishment or expansion of large state holding companies to take over distressed private firms.”

But those who have spent years dreaming about a world beyond neoliberalism should think twice before popping the champagne. While some may celebrate the arrival of policies that, on the surface at least, involve a greater role for the state in the economy, there remains one problem: there is no evidence that state action inherently leads to progressive social outcomes.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ou...west-the-spectre-of-authoritarian-capitalism/
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BootsyCollins said:


So what so you guys think of this? Suggest that smoking actually protect you against Covid-19. Says its not a case closed ofcourse but still...
Click to expand...


Early studies here (Italy) said smokers who were hospitalised were more than twice as likely to need ventilators as non smokers. That's saying something slightly different than smoking reduces the likelihood of hospitalisation, but still.
 
The Israelis are saying that US intelligence informed them and NATO end of November that something big is happening in China and this could get out of control. The Israelis discussed this with their own health minister but nothing came out of it.
So Europe and USA knew that something big was happening and their own intelligence advised that this could become a pandemic in November. But no action was taken because China and WHO didn't declare a pandemic in November?
Absolutely crazy.
 
worldgonemad said:
Okay, im probably gonna get flamed for this but ive been watching this thread since the start and its been very informative. One downside for me though has been the constant politicising by various posters along the lines of 'tory cuts, austerity, clapping supports tory rhetoric etc etc.'

Now i may be blinkered, blind, deaf to the truth etc. But genuinly i dont see how any governments nhs policy past or present has hindered our response to this pandemic. From all reports im hearing, we have not at any point so far been over capacity in our hospitals, other countries with better equipped health services per capita have been overwhelmed {italy and america spring to mind}
It seems lack of ppe has been a worldwide issue as has logistics and supply chain.

Could anyone enlighten me how the 'underfunding' of the nhs has led to any more deaths in this crisis.
@FeedMe you seem to have been very vocal about underfunding in this thread but ive not seen you post anything about sorting out the in efficiency as part of sorting out the problems.

No doubt crash helmet will be needed for the response.
Click to expand...

Can you please explain a scenario in which a policy of deliberately underfunding the NHS for almost a decade does not leave it in a worsened position to deal with a virus pandemic? I don’t see why you need this explaining to you and are acting as if people lamenting Tory cuts are part of some conspiracy.
 
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