SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

If we assume 10% of the global population will catch it and the latest real death estimate of 0.66% is accurate enough, then ~5 million.

10% and 0.66% applied to the US gives 200k deaths in the US which is their hopeful projection, so probably not far off.
Surely not applicable to more population dense, and less developed regions in Africa, Latin America and Asia?
 
I wouldn't bother with the N95s since they are almost all going to get taken down at some point due to the healthcare need. I got 20 regular hospital style masks for 29.99 a couple of days ago. Should last me a couple of months since I don't go out much.
can masks be machine washed and reused?
 
Or, you know, they got the appropriate advice from the experts and acted on it accordingly.

One thing that backseat driver Twitter experts don’t get in all of this is that even the people who know considerably more about all of this than they do don’t always agree on everything. It easy to say the pubs should have closed on exactly this day, and schools on exactly this day and so on but those are huge decisions and getting a consensus from everyone involved won’t be easy. Which is further complicated by the day to day changes to scientific consensus, re the infectiousness and lethality of the virus. It’s why so many countries have so many different approaches, despite all of them being guided by legitimate experts who know infinitely more than paddy277575 on Twitter about how and when to introduce Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in a pandemic.

I’ve been as critical of the UK and US approach as anyone but that’s because they’ve so obviously contradicted themselves with their dramatic changes in approach, as well as their shambolic mixed messages coming from their leader.

In Ireland they’ve been as consistent as possible, despite dealing with curveballs that are completely out of their control, such as global shortages of testing reagents and PPE. They’ve also been pretty clear and precise with their advice, based on the best available evidence at the time. Obviously, with hindsight, there were things they could have done differently but they’ve not done a bad job at all, based on the information and expert advice they had at the time.
You say twitter experts as if they were wrong? Theres been a solid pattern of if you want to know our next move is then just judge what the public opinion is days before.
I dont see what closing the pubs on March 15 instead of March 11 does in the long run to be honest but its all hidden under the banner of following science.
I know its a tough sitiation but theres being in a tough situation and theres pretending we have been proactive when we clearly havent been.
 
can masks be machine washed and reused?
You would need to check the technical data sheet for the corresponding mask. I think its unlikely but you never know..
I'm sure the ones made of cloth can. The hospital style ones which seem to be made out of something a bit papery probably can't.
https://news.stanford.edu/2020/04/01/researchers-show-how-to-decontaminate-reuse-n95-masks/

The team members who came together over the last few weeks scoured hundreds of peer-reviewed publications, and held continuous online meetings to review studies of decontamination methods that have been used on previous viral and bacterial pathogens and then to assess the potential to use these methods on the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19.

Their goal was to provide overwhelmed health officials with reliable, pre-digested scientific information about the pros and cons of three decontamination methods should local shortages force a choice between decontamination and reuse or going unmasked.

The three methods involve either heat and humidity; a specific wavelength of light called ultraviolet C (UVC); or treatment with hydrogen peroxide vapors (HPV).

The scientists did not endorse any one method but instead sought to describe the circumstances under which each might be effective against the virus provided rigorous procedures were followed. They concluded, for instance, that devices that rely on heat are effective under specific temperature, humidity and time parameters. With UVC devices, the group advised making sure masks are properly oriented to the light so the entire surface is bathed in sufficient energy. They also found that the HPV method could potentially be used to decontaminate masks in volume – a recommendation that is backed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which has already certified certain vendors to offer hydrogen peroxide vapor treatments on a large scale.

They created a website that compiles all n95 decontamination data into 1 place also... https://www.n95decon.org/
 
When outdoors most of the time there is motion in the surrounding air for the droplets to disperse them considerably. The stronger the motion (i.e. if it happens to be quite windy), the greater (and faster) the dispersion. The chance of inhaling a stray droplet in a secluded area is therefore very slim. Don't be fooled by the video. I've already explained above, simulations of these processes aren't great. The experiment was interesting, but it seems it was carried out indoor with little to no surrounding air motion, which is usually unrealistic when going outdoors.



You could also use a bar of soap, normally they are a lot cheaper and also, at least for me, last a lot longer.

I needed the hand sanitizer for when i do my shopping. So when i come out of the shop i rub some on.

I have the soap but doubt i need it because i live alone.

A guy on Joe Rogan said it is the foam in soap that kills the virus.
 
My wife is wearing a n95, goggles, a hair cover, gloves, a gown, and a plastic fasemask... and she's been trained on how to put them on and take them off to avoid contamination.

Average people wearing just a facemask thinking that will prevent them from catching this virus are fooling themselves. It's about like all the people wearing gloves and then touching things and then touching their faces with the gloves on... or touching things with the gloves on then later touching those same things with the gloves off.
She's been trained to have close to 100% protection while dealing with infected people. Just putting a mask and gloves obviously won't achieve that, but (almost surely) it will give some protection (especially when we are talking for people who are dealing mostly with non-infected people). And some protection, is better than no protection.

The head doctor of South Korea said that the main difference in the fight they are doing vs the west, is that there everyone uses masks.
 
They definitely work to contain the virus when you are infected. The evidence they provide protection from the virus for someone who isn't infected is limited.
My wife is wearing a n95, goggles, a hair cover, gloves, a gown, and a plastic fasemask... and she's been trained on how to put them on and take them off to avoid contamination.

Average people wearing just a facemask thinking that will prevent them from catching this virus are fooling themselves. It's about like all the people wearing gloves and then touching things and then touching their faces with the gloves on... or touching things with the gloves on then later touching those same things with the gloves off.
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Do explain why the pale blue lines are all countries where most people wear masks.
 
https://news.stanford.edu/2020/04/01/researchers-show-how-to-decontaminate-reuse-n95-masks/

The team members who came together over the last few weeks scoured hundreds of peer-reviewed publications, and held continuous online meetings to review studies of decontamination methods that have been used on previous viral and bacterial pathogens and then to assess the potential to use these methods on the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19.

Their goal was to provide overwhelmed health officials with reliable, pre-digested scientific information about the pros and cons of three decontamination methods should local shortages force a choice between decontamination and reuse or going unmasked.

The three methods involve either heat and humidity; a specific wavelength of light called ultraviolet C (UVC); or treatment with hydrogen peroxide vapors (HPV).

The scientists did not endorse any one method but instead sought to describe the circumstances under which each might be effective against the virus provided rigorous procedures were followed. They concluded, for instance, that devices that rely on heat are effective under specific temperature, humidity and time parameters. With UVC devices, the group advised making sure masks are properly oriented to the light so the entire surface is bathed in sufficient energy. They also found that the HPV method could potentially be used to decontaminate masks in volume – a recommendation that is backed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which has already certified certain vendors to offer hydrogen peroxide vapor treatments on a large scale.

They created a website that compiles all n95 decontamination data into 1 place also... https://www.n95decon.org/

It never ceases to amaze what scientists/engineers can do. I think its great news if they can scale up a method which can clean these reusable masks in an industrial setting.
 
Google are providing location data to track changes in movement between different countries. They have split it up into categories like how many people are going to retail places, transit stations, workplaces etc.

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

The UK for comparison is still moving between 10% and 40% more than Italy, especially in parks.

I guess this will be very useful to covid19 hotspot planners. ie: if this data was layered onto infected/died per same area, should show correlation on effective of shut down/Stay at home?
 
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Do explain why the pale blue lines are all countries where most people wear masks.

Look at South Korea. It didn't stop a very large number of deaths before finally peaking.
People have already discussed some issues in Japan earlier in the thread.
Singapore and Hong Kong both have labels of "quanrantine" so you can't say whether it was the masks or the quanrantine that proved most effective.
 
Gah, that's brutal. Seems that in South Carolina the initial incubator for Covid was senior care homes as well.

Today the total counts are 6507 deaths in France, 5091 in hospitals and 1416 care homes.
 
https://news.stanford.edu/2020/04/01/researchers-show-how-to-decontaminate-reuse-n95-masks/

The team members who came together over the last few weeks scoured hundreds of peer-reviewed publications, and held continuous online meetings to review studies of decontamination methods that have been used on previous viral and bacterial pathogens and then to assess the potential to use these methods on the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19.

Their goal was to provide overwhelmed health officials with reliable, pre-digested scientific information about the pros and cons of three decontamination methods should local shortages force a choice between decontamination and reuse or going unmasked.

The three methods involve either heat and humidity; a specific wavelength of light called ultraviolet C (UVC); or treatment with hydrogen peroxide vapors (HPV).

The scientists did not endorse any one method but instead sought to describe the circumstances under which each might be effective against the virus provided rigorous procedures were followed. They concluded, for instance, that devices that rely on heat are effective under specific temperature, humidity and time parameters. With UVC devices, the group advised making sure masks are properly oriented to the light so the entire surface is bathed in sufficient energy. They also found that the HPV method could potentially be used to decontaminate masks in volume – a recommendation that is backed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which has already certified certain vendors to offer hydrogen peroxide vapor treatments on a large scale.

They created a website that compiles all n95 decontamination data into 1 place also... https://www.n95decon.org/
Great information. Many thanks!

How you/wife feeling? Hope it's not too bad for you.
 
She's been trained to have close to 100% protection while dealing with infected people. Just putting a mask and gloves obviously won't achieve that, but (almost surely) it will give some protection (especially when we are talking for people who are dealing mostly with non-infected people). And some protection, is better than no protection.

The head doctor of South Korea said that the main difference in the fight they are doing vs the west, is that there everyone uses masks.
You would need literally everyone wearing them, and then not contaminating things through improper use or wearing them and then contaminating themselves anyway through improperly doing something else.

How many masks would that take? How much other protective equipment to do so properly?
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Do explain why the pale blue lines are all countries where most people wear masks.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/26...olds-lesson-defeating-it-demands-persistence/
 
Absolutely. I don't disagree. I'm just pointing out that the evidence suggests masks don't protect against infection.
If it only reduces those who are infected from spreading (asymptomatic as infected should anyway be in self isolation) , and acts as a reminder for wearers to not touch nose or mouth, then these are good enough reasons to wear for me.

Assuming of course this is not at the expense of front line workers such as NHS, shop and retail sector workers etc
 
I really feel sorry for supermarket workers at the moment.

The NHS working are rightly getting love from the public but the dude at Asda or the lady at Tesco didn't sign up for this shit.
I only took on the delivery driver's job at Tesco as an easy number after working in the defence sector to see me through to retirement, I can honestly say I haven't worked as hard in my life as the last few weeks. The vast majority of customers (mainly our regulars) have been great and really thankful for what they get even with all the subs and non availabilities but some? Honestly, I just want to punch them in the face There really are some fecking self entitled arseholes knocking about.
 
Look at South Korea. It didn't stop a very large number of deaths before finally peaking.
People have already discussed some issues in Japan earlier in the thread.
Singapore and Hong Kong both have labels of "quanrantine" so you can't say whether it was the masks or the quanrantine that proved most effective.
Koreans didn't really start wearing masks until after the initial explosion of cases.
Japan, granted, there is a serious issue with the testing.
Hong Kong, I live here, and the quarantine was a joke initially, people were told to stay home but only checked via phone location sharing.

Anyway, I just don't see what is the downside to wearing masks (if available).
 
You would need literally everyone wearing them, and then not contaminating things through improper use or wearing them and then contaminating themselves anyway through improperly doing something else.

How many masks would that take? How much other protective equipment to do so properly?

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/26...olds-lesson-defeating-it-demands-persistence/
About a billion each day for the US, I would say. With them being quite cheap, it is feck all in grand scheme of things.

And yep, if China or South Korea can produce as many as needed, so can the US.
 
Genuine question but how did Zoom become so popular. I had never heard of even only two weeks ago???

I've been using it for years for teaching. So much better than Skype but sadly this is what most (private) people have.
 
Koreans didn't really start wearing masks until after the initial explosion of cases.
Japan, granted, there is a serious issue with the testing.
Hong Kong, I live here, and the quarantine was a joke initially, people were told to stay home but only checked via phone location sharing.

Anyway, I just don't see what is the downside to wearing masks (if available).
None. The problem is that there is a shortage of them (cause wester governments did feck all for 2 months), so in the last few weeks they had to do propaganda how masks do not help, or make things even worse. I can understand that point of view (to ensure that doctors and nurses stay protected), but it was obviously a lie.
 
You would need literally everyone wearing them, and then not contaminating things through improper use or wearing them and then contaminating themselves anyway through improperly doing something else.

How many masks would that take? How much other protective equipment to do so properly?

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/26...olds-lesson-defeating-it-demands-persistence/
Great article, basically Hong Kongers are battling against the government as well as the virus in all of this.
 
None. The problem is that there is a shortage of them (cause wester governments did feck all for 2 months), so in the last few weeks they had to do propaganda how masks do not help, or make things even worse. I can understand that point of view (to ensure that doctors and nurses stay protected), but it was obviously a lie.

It was a ridiculous message that contradicts itself, wearing masks isn't a useful guard, but please make sure the healthcare professionals have them available to guard against the virus. So which is it?
 
For people following Worldometers they made a mess of the french stats, the total cases only include people hospitalized while the deaths include hosptitalized and care homes death. In reality there is approximately 17800 more cases in France.
 
About a billion each day for the US, I would say. With them being quite cheap, it is feck all in grand scheme of things.

And yep, if China or South Korea can produce as many as needed, so can the US.
Yeah, we're doing a great job of it at the moment [sarcasm off]
 
Yeah, we're doing a great job of it at the moment [sarcasm off]
To be fair, China and South Korea were much better prepared for this, and were waiting for this to happen since SARS (in case of Korea they also had the experience of MERS which was even more terrifying than SARS). The US did feck all until March, pretending that if we all think that the problem will go away, it will go away. Saying that, the US has the ability to mobilize much faster than most countries (just look at the testing how it went from close to 0 to more than 100k/day in a space of a week) so in the end, producing a shitload of masks would be trivial if there is a strong incentive to do so.
 
It was a ridiculous message that contradicts itself, wearing masks isn't a useful guard, but please make sure the healthcare professionals have them available to guard against the virus. So which is it?

Both. Healthcare professionals have to spend several hours everyday in close proximity to contaminated patients, they need masks and all the gears possible to limit contamination in an highly risky environment. You and I don't spend several hours in that environment and it's relatively easy to drastically reduce risks, wash your hands often with soap, keep your distances with people that aren't from your household.
 
It was a ridiculous message that contradicts itself, wearing masks isn't a useful guard, but please make sure the healthcare professionals have them available to guard against the virus. So which is it?
I've already said that is a false dilemma.

There are so many other items of protective equipment and protective procedures that medical workers wear and take in addition to wearing the n95. The mask is part of a larger system.
 
It was a ridiculous message that contradicts itself, wearing masks isn't a useful guard, but please make sure the healthcare professionals have them available to guard against the virus. So which is it?
The doctors were obviously trying to not spread the virus to sick patients.
 
Both. Healthcare professionals have to spend several hours everyday in close proximity to contaminated patients, they need masks and all the gears possible to limit contamination in an highly risky environment. You and I don't spend several hours in that environment and it's relatively easy to drastically reduce risks, wash your hands often with soap, keep your distances with people that aren't from your household.
Agreed, but they're better off saying that, "Please don't hoard masks so that healthcare professionals can get them", rather than the stupid line of "they don't work, but the professionals need them".
 
None. The problem is that there is a shortage of them (cause wester governments did feck all for 2 months), so in the last few weeks they had to do propaganda how masks do not help, or make things even worse. I can understand that point of view (to ensure that doctors and nurses stay protected), but it was obviously a lie.

A lot of the science was not propaganda. You are very mistaken if you think that is the case. Again, no one disputes that the effectiveness of [appropriate] masks to prevent the inhalation of droplets and the spread of droplets from infected individuals. The issues of debate are (A) the dispersion and settling properties of the droplets and (B) the biological aspects of how just how significant is transmission by droplets. With regards to (A), I have a background in this field, which is why I can tell you it wasn't propaganda. With regards to (B), this is what I have seen in news articles.

It was a ridiculous message that contradicts itself, wearing masks isn't a useful guard, but please make sure the healthcare professionals have them available to guard against the virus. So which is it?

Doctors/nurses/carers/other NHS hospital staff are continually exposed to infected individuals so they do need full PPE. The public have far less exposure because the country is in lockdown. As already explained above, average joe in the public may not wear the mask correctly. So the current thinking is not to recommend the mask for the general public. Whether you agree with that advice or not is your opinion of course, but the two cases are certainly not contradictory.
 
Both. Healthcare professionals have to spend several hours everyday in close proximity to contaminated patients, they need masks and all the gears possible to limit contamination in an highly risky environment. You and I don't spend several hours in that environment and it's relatively easy to drastically reduce risks, wash your hands often with soap, keep your distances with people that aren't from your household.
Sure. But wearing the mask further reduces the possibility of getting infected, and even more importantly, it reduces the possibility of you infecting others. It definitely does not put you even more at risk, unless you start licking the mask when you remove it.

Now, obviously, if it is between me and a doctor wearing a mask, of course, that the doctor should be prioritized. But masks are such an easy thing to be produced, and since January it was known that we will reach this stage. So countries should have been prepared to have masks for everyone.
 
I've already said that is a false dilemma.

There are so many other items of protective equipment and protective procedures that medical workers wear and take in addition to wearing the n95. The mask is part of a larger system.
Of course, but the point remains that it's better to tell people the truth (refer to above post).
The doctors were obviously trying to not spread the virus to sick patients.
:lol:
 
Walked past a pub today on my daily hour walk.
Its open. People inside. England's f*cked.