SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Yik said:
Screenshot-2020-03-17-at-15-11-50--tojpeg_1584458034269_x2.jpg


Based on Imperial College's modelling, there will be a surge once the lockdown winds down (assuming the suppression/social distancing lasts until September). We obviously won't have a a vaccine out in Nov/Dec 2020 so the only thing we can hope for is a better treatment/more ventilators being online plus more field hospital in place.
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I think some level of restrictions will have to remain to keep the post lock-down spike to a minimum. I also imagine face masks, social distancing and better hygiene won't disappear overnight no matter what the regulations.

I wonder if a law that requires you to wear a face mask if you are sick could be enforced when this all settles down and they are available again?

Agreed about the vaccine. I'd say that if we had a vaccine that has been administered to much of the world by late 2021 would be impressive much less late 2020.
 
Carolina Red said:
We are a joke of a country for allowing this*...

https://thehill.com/regulation/cour...tening-to-fire-workers-for-speaking-out-about

Hospitals threatening to fire workers for speaking out about coronavirus shortages: report

At least two health care workers have been fired after speaking out about the need for more coronavirus tests and protective equipment as hospitals across the country warn doctors and nurses not to publicize pandemic-fueled shortages of medical supplies.

An emergency room doctor in Washington state was fired last week after criticizing working conditions at his hospital where he had worked for 17 years, and a Chicago nurse was fired after warning colleagues their assigned masks offered inadequate protection against coronavirus, according to reports.

“Nurses and other health care workers are being muzzled in an attempt by hospitals to preserve their image,” said Ruth Schubert, a spokesperson for the Washington State Nurses Association. “No health care worker should face being disciplined or fired for speaking the truth.”



*among other things
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Couldn't form a coherent comment about this in 30 seconds....
 
One Night Only said:
Yeah, but 300/400 covid 19 deaths in one day doesn't mean that's a 25% increase to that number. Some of those deaths would have naturally happened, virus or not?
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But it will be very close to 25% as very few of that 300/400 would have died today otherwise. There might be a few who already died of Covid who would have died today of other things and there may be 1 or 2 who would have died today of their underlying conditions so perhaps the overall increase is very slightly less than 25%. I have seen people wanting to exclude people who would have died of something else in the future from the figures but that is irrelevant as it will only reduce the number of deaths on the day they would have died by 1 at some point in the future.
 
OleBoiii said:
Not sure if it's posted yet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

TLDR; the new estimated death rate for this virus is 0.66%. This is about 6.6 times higher than the death rate of regular flu. For young people it's significantly lower, for old people significantly higher.
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They actually give a case fatality ratio (CFR) of 1.38. Which is 14 times higher than seasonal influenza. Good to see though. The worldometer data on closed cases (i.e. dead vs confirmed recovered) has been getting higher and higher. Currently almost 20%. Which is fecking scary.

The 0.66% is “infection fatality ratio” which seems to use some statistical jiggery pokery to estimate cases that aren’t confirmed. I’ve never seen an equivalent figure for flu.
 
jojojo said:
It's a standard method in science, statistics and maths, nothing to do with the internet or agendas.

The graph's curves are used to see patterns like does one person infect one person on average or three, and what is the timeline - are cases doubling every two days or every five, and so on. It might not make a lot of instant sense to everyone outside the science audience (who use it when talking about models and trends) but it's not a trick.
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I was just thinking what it would look like on a linear graph - lots of lines with all countries going almost straight up I'd assume.
 
Wibble said:
I think some level of restrictions will have to remain to keep the post lock-down spike to a minimum. I also imagine face masks, social distancing and better hygiene won't disappear overnight no matter what the regulations.

I wonder if a law that requires you to wear a face mask if you are sick could be enforced when this all settles down and they are available again?

Agreed about the vaccine. I'd say that if we had a vaccine that has been administered to much of the world by late 2021 would be impressive much less late 2020.
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This is the study btw:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid-19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/

I'm not quite sure why they assumed that restrictions will just end and things will go back to normal after a certain time. Think that might be the subject of another report they come out with? But it definitely would be a gradual easing up of restriction rather than a free for all. I think the most important thing is just society's fatigue with all this. Even 6 months is a massive ask for the current restrictions we have. Perhaps an end to the stay at home except for the people who most need it for their safety but you'd have to imagine they wouldn't open up pubs again or sport.

Regarding the masks thing, I'm not sure if they'd really police that. But there are similar mesures in the Coronavirus bill thats being proposed, not sure if its been passed yet does contain some fairly draconian measures with regard to policing the sick. Whether they actually enforce those measures remains to be seen but its definitely part of the governments agenda.

Again, though I find it a bit strange why this report seemingly glosses over the aftermath of the initial suppression. The graph clearly suggests it would only buy time and nothing else.
 
@Yik I've used a very similar one in army and trust me you don't want to wear it for long, I've spent 24 hours in one on a nuclear/bio excersize and it was horrible.
 
Wedge said:
@Yik I've used a very similar one in army and trust me you don't want to wear it for long, I've spent 24 hours in one on a nuclear/bio excersize and it was horrible.
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Shush you! I was looking forward to seeing this on my streets, Blitz spirit and all that! :wenger:


00gasmaskM2.jpg
 
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/415378

Of 369 SARS survivors, 233 (63.1%) participated in the study (mean period of time after SARS, 41.3 months). Over 40% of the respondents had active psychiatric illnesses, 40.3% reported a chronic fatigue problem, and 27.1% met the modified 1994 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for chronic fatigue syndrome.
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For anyone thinking it's just a good idea to just get it for the sake of herd immunity. It's a novel disease, we haven't got a clue what the long term effects of this disease are yet but if they're anything like the original SARS outbreak they're horrific. Even milder forms of permanent lung damage/scarring will be life changing for most young people.

We're years away from finding out what this will mean long term, but I'd much rather be in the group to have never got it.
 
Wedge said:
@Yik I've used a very similar one in army and trust me you don't want to wear it for long, I've spent 24 hours in one on a nuclear/bio excersize and it was horrible.
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Yes but NBC exercises require constant use. Presumably in his plan (daft as it is) you could take it off at times. I can remember trying to drink with my NBC mask on. It was fecking ridiculous hooking the pipe up from the mask to my water bottle.
 
One Night Only said:
Yeah, but 300/400 covid 19 deaths in one day doesn't mean that's a 25% increase to that number. Some of those deaths would have naturally happened, virus or not?
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Last year in week 14 there were an estimated 10126 all-cause deaths. You divide that by 7 you get 1446.5 so if other deaths replicate last year which is a stretch then 393 on top of that would be a 27% giving a margin of people who would have died on the same day regardless of whether they got Covid19 or not.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mortality-surveillance-2018-to-2019
 
Wibble said:
Even in the event that a vaccine is created and fast tracked by early 2021 (which is far from sure) testing, approval, manufacturing, distribution and administering it to people on the scale required could take far longer. So I very much doubt many if any countries will be on full lock down for that long.
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Mid 2021 at earliest. I guess countries who are prepared to have a lot of sick people can start getting out of lockdowns around the second half of this year. Poland will not be one of them, I don’t expect us to get back to normal this year at all. We are barely prepared for 300 cases a day.

I don’t really think there will be a choice.
 
VintageWhatnots said:
Why is everyone so aggressive on here?

I'm not bothered I didn't understand it, I held my hands up on the very first reply to me that I had misinterpreted it, perhaps you should take the time to actually read the conversation, rather than ploughing in with insults.

As I've stated, the graph is valid, but when it is being used on twitter and football forums it needs more explanation, the size of the thread is irrelevant. 99% of people won't understand it, I've studied stats, and still misinterpreted it.

Most people will glance at it, and get the wrong end of the stick, it is irresponsible or misleading. Your average Joe doesn't know what a log scale axis is, in fact to a good majority on here, that sentence may as well be foreign.

Anyone that shares information, anywhere, should be aware of their audience.

I couldn't give two hoots that I didn't understand it, in fact that is exactly the issue, most people won't understand it, and that causes a big problem. When information is being shared to the masses, but they don't understand it, surely you can see how that can be a problem?

Someone above said either learn or don't comment. Sadly that means that most people won't comment, and will either have no idea what the graph means, or will misinterpret it. Neither of which is useful.
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We are all stressed I think is the answer. I know I'm not managing my stress that well.

I didn't think your original post deserved more than someone saying why log scales were used and I think under normal circumstances that is what would have happened.

So lets all let this lie and carry on shall we (that was directed to everyone BTW)?
 
Sweet Square said:
Ok just some quick examples.

  • Policies made by other countries before Britain

France

Spain

Denmark

Sweden


Why has it took Britain so long ? Another example, Germany closed it's bars, pubs etc on Monday why did Britain need until today to do the same ?

  • Lack of planning


Government documents show no planning for ventilators in the event of a pandemic



Lack of policy for Renters, self employed and unemployed





And just look at some of the responses by people on here, who have just been fecked over by the latest government statement.


NHS Workers



Testing, Testing Testing



and

Coronavirus: WHO calls for countries to test every case after British government says move 'no longer necessary



  • Boris



And I haven't even talked about the decade long effect of austerity which has made it extremely difficult to tackle a virus like covid19. But whatever I'm sure you've got a empty reply about how Britain is somehow different from the rest of the world and some meaningless sound bite about how the government is simply following ''the science''. Which is why I feel sorry for people like yourself, it's not because we don't agree politically(Who actual gives a shit about that during a crisis like this)it's that the tories are fecking you up the arse and you don't even know it or if you do know you're just glad they aren't using the wooden paddle.


See above.
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@Leroy The Red

UK has been behind the curve on this and they did not need to be. It's tragic.
 
Jippy said:
Shane Goldmacher(@ShaneGoldmacher)
This White House briefing room slide lists as "goals" 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.

Breathtaking. pic.twitter.com/CrajjVGqVf

March 31, 2020
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To be fair, the “goal” is cutting deaths from two million or so, down to that level. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if most countries have similar goals, pro rata for their population. America is a very big country.
 
432JuanMata said:
19 year old with no underlining health problem dies in the U.K.
12 year old with no underlining health problem dies in Belgium.
I’m starting to think this depends on how bad you get it and it can kill anyone
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But such deaths are so incredibly rare that individual tragedy aside they give us a great deal of hope that young people, especially the very young, will be much much better off than the rest of us and the old in particular.
 
pauldyson1uk said:
Iam far from thick, but watching Trump and his team doing their COVID 19 update, I honestly dont have a clue what he is on about, it all gibberish, its all over the place.
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"Soz, we fecked up. A lot of you are going to die earlier than expected. Buckle up."

That also applies Boris Johnson's/Michael Gove's 5pm speeches.
 
TheReligion said:
It's really pissed me off, along with that Lord trying to get his name in the media by piping up about it.

Do people think any of us actually enjoy being in work at the moment? Having to deal with people suspected of having the virus, those that have died in the community and going into house after house dealing with other incidents placing ourselves and our loved ones at risk? We'd love to work from home, protect our families and keep ourselves out of harm's way yet we have a job to do like other key workers. This bizarre criticism will damage morale.
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My hot water cylinder completely died 4 days ago - leaking all over the floor and leaving me with turning all hot water off. I was really worried that I'd have to make do without hot water for a couple of months but plumbers are considered key workers. He stayed away from me as much as he could, but I imagine must be worried every day he works. I gave him a big tip and he mentioned his family at home and the concerns he has doing what he does..
 
Pure unfounded speculation alert

As this Coronavirus is a Betacoronavirus, in common with some of the viruses that give us colds, could this in part account for some people being asymptomatic or getting mild sysmptoms. In much the same way that getting t
 
Sweet Square said:
Editor of the lancet last week on the BBC, summed it up well.

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I don't know why people use this guy as if he's an independent voice. He's been a Labour party campaigner for years. He's got his Labour party hat on here.
 
Wibble said:
Pure unfounded speculation alert

As this Coronavirus is a Betacoronavirus, in common with some of the Beatcoronaviruses that give us colds, could this in part account for some people being asymptomatic or getting mild sysmptoms. In much the same way that getting t
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I was wondering this. I had quite a bad cold a month before my fiancee feels she had Covid 19, I was completely asymptomatic.
 
Fiskey said:
I don't know why people use this guy as if he's an independent voice. He's been a Labour party campaigner for years. He's got his Labour party hat on here.
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Doesn't make him right though does it? He is spot on - many countries reacted far too slowly in many ways.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
To be fair, the “goal” is cutting deaths from two million or so, down to that level. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if most countries have similar goals, pro rata for their population. America is a very big country.
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Maybe we shouldn't be sugaring the pill, but him trying to spin it as an endorsement of his government's response is repugnant though.
 
Fiskey said:
I was wondering this. I had quite a bad cold a month before my fiancee feels she had Covid 19, I was completely asymptomatic.
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It would be great if that were the case. I also wonder how fast this virus might evolve to be less harmful which is often, but not always, the case?
 
Wibble said:
Doesn't make him right though does it? He is spot on - many countries reacted far too slowly in many ways.
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No, not necessarily wrong, but you wouldn't present Owen Jones or Ash Sarkar as an independent voice whether what they have to say is valid or otherwise.
 
Wibble said:
It would be great if that were the case. I also wonder how fast this virus might evolve to be less harmful which is often, but not always, the case?
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Isn't mutation itself just complete random luck which then gets selected for by an evolutionary stress? Would there be any evolutionary stress on this virus to select to a less harmful version?

Cause it's already pretty successful at infecting as many people as possible.
 
Fiskey said:
I don't know why people use this guy as if he's an independent voice. He's been a Labour party campaigner for years. He's got his Labour party hat on here.
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Fiskey said:
No, not necessarily wrong, but you wouldn't present Owen Jones or Ash Sarkar as an independent voice whether what they have to say is valid or otherwise.
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:lol:

I honestly feel a bit sorry for people like you. But also cheers I need a bit of laugh after a rather dull day.
 
Wibble said:
Pure unfounded speculation alert

As this Coronavirus is a Betacoronavirus, in common with some of the viruses that give us colds, could this in part account for some people being asymptomatic or getting mild sysmptoms. In much the same way that getting t
Click to expand...

Unfounded speculation as well here, but I imagine if you are the type of person to get common colds often and react badly to them, you would very much be at high risk from this new strain even without 'underlying health conditions' due to the virus being from the same family
 
Skills said:
Isn't mutation itself just complete random luck which then gets selected for by an evolutionary stress? Would there be any evolutionary stress on this virus to select to a less harmful version?

Cause it's already pretty successful at infecting as many people as possible.
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I'm more familiar with mammal and fish evolution but my understanding is that evolution by natural selection favors less harmful strains (or species or whatever the correct terminology) of virus because their hosts don't die and can spread the virus far and wide, to reproduce in new hosts wheras more fatal strains are more often "trapped" in the dead host.
 
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