SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Sarni]

http://www.bandolier.org.uk/booth/Risk/dyingage.html

That's from 2005 but :

Mortality rate for 25-34 year old men was 1 in 1215 and women it's 1 in 2488 so about 0.0008% for men and 0.0004% for women.

I think you have your decimals wrong. That’s 0.08% for men and 0.04% for women. So basically having 0.2% to die from coronavirus once contracted beats that. If you assume 40% chance of contracting it annually, then you are as likely to die from coronavirus at a young age as you are to die for all other reasons combined. So while it’s still unlikely, it’s a big statistical change. Even if 0.2% is overestimated (it probably is considering how few deaths there were among young patients in Italy and Korea, and the fact that we haven’t picked up all symptomless patients), it’s still going to be material. If you let all of them get sick, you will likely have more people die from coronavirus than any other cause in young adults.

I imagine those deaths will include suicides too which you have obvious impact on. So it’s even worse than that when it comes to natural causes/accidents vs COVID-19.

 

[Berbaclass]

Paul Brand from ITV News asks Dr Harries if current measures in place will continue beyond three weeks.

She points out the UK has only had one week of the measure and that the prime minister said the situation would be "reviewed" after the three weeks.

But she adds it would be "quite dangerous" to then revert to normal life.

"If we stop then all of our efforts will be wasted", she adds.

She says that measures may be reduced gradually over time.

Dr Harries says it might be two or three months before we see the longer-term impact, and about three to six months before to see "at which point we can actually get back to normal".

"And it is plausible it could go further than that", she adds.

 

[Skills]

Couple of zeros too many on those percentages surely? 0.08% and 0.04% makes more sense.

I think you have your decimals wrong. That’s 0.08% for men and 0.04% for women. So basically having 0.2% to die from coronavirus once contracted beats that. If you assume 40% chance of contracting it annually, then you are as likely to die from coronavirus at a young age as you are to die for all other reasons combined. So while it’s still unlikely, it’s a big statistical change. Even if 0.2% is overestimated (it probably is considering how few deaths there were among young patients in Italy and Korea, and the fact that we haven’t picked up all symptomless patients), it’s still going to be material. If you let all of them get sick, you will likely have more people die from coronavirus than any other cause in young adults.

I imagine those deaths will include suicides too which you have obvious impact on. So it’s even worse than that when it comes to natural causes/accidents vs COVID-19.

You are of course right. I cocked up

 

[Snafu17]

I think you have your decimals wrong. That’s 0.08% for men and 0.04% for women. So basically having 0.2% to die from coronavirus once contracted beats that. If you assume 40% chance of contracting it annually, then you are as likely to die from coronavirus at a young age as you are to die for all other reasons combined. So while it’s still unlikely, it’s a big statistical change. Even if 0.2% is overestimated (it probably is considering how few deaths there were among young patients in Italy and Korea, and the fact that we haven’t picked up all symptomless patients), it’s still going to be material. If you let all of them get sick, you will likely have more people die from coronavirus than any other cause in young adults.

I imagine those deaths will include suicides too which you have obvious impact on. So it’s even worse than that when it comes to natural causes/accidents vs COVID-19.

On the other hand that percentage only reflects deaths while the healthcare system is overwhelmed. If you get infected once the pandemic is somewhat under control your chances of survival might increase dramatically. It's also likely that a significant portion of infected haven't been identified which would bring the case fatality rate even further down. Your chances of death also increase if you have a preexisting condition. There's a lot of variables to consider and we don't know a large portion of them this early in the pandemic.

 

[Adisa]

So many threads I could have put this.
We are a special kind of stupid.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

In the U.K., the key decision in terms of rolling back the lockdown is going to be when they allow the pubs to be reopened. Once they are, as the government should know, they are going to to absolutely rammed.

When do we think this is going to be? (Asking for a friend)

 

[fergieisold]

Young people dying are still statistical outliers. If you're young and you have no underlying health issues, I'm not sure what there is to "shite scared" about. Do you live your life in fear of all improbable events? Respect the situation, take all necessary and proportional precautions, but don't become irrational. We are going to require young, healthy people to lead the volunteering effort.

I think this is the right approach. Take the right actions to protect yourself and others but there's no evidence at the moment that healthy relatively young people should be overly concerned.

That’s what statistics seem to imply indeed. There are tragic cases among the younger patients as well but much less frequent, the issue is even if mortality is 1 in 500 you are still sacrificing many lives if you just allow all of them to get sick. How many people between 20 and 40 die for any reasons during the year, 1% or less? Then giving them extra 0.2% is a material change to that likelihood.

Even if it is 0.2% it's likely many of the people contributing to that number in the younger age group have existing health problems. I'm not buying the current media narrative of all these healthy young fit people dying. They're loving it at the moment! The Daily mail posted a story about a 65 year old clearly massively overweight women claiming she had no prior problems, it's ridiculous!

I think you have your decimals wrong. That’s 0.08% for men and 0.04% for women. So basically having 0.2% to die from coronavirus once contracted beats that. If you assume 40% chance of contracting it annually, then you are as likely to die from coronavirus at a young age as you are to die for all other reasons combined. So while it’s still unlikely, it’s a big statistical change. Even if 0.2% is overestimated (it probably is considering how few deaths there were among young patients in Italy and Korea, and the fact that we haven’t picked up all symptomless patients), it’s still going to be material. If you let all of them get sick, you will likely have more people die from coronavirus than any other cause in young adults.

I imagine those deaths will include suicides too which you have obvious impact on. So it’s even worse than that when it comes to natural causes/accidents vs COVID-19.

I think nobody wants to contract this disease even the young, but if you are young and healthy there isn't any reason to be overly concerned at the moment. Most of the deaths in the young age group will be due to underlying disease. There will always be the odd statistical outlier though.

 

[Arruda]

I think young people should show a level of concern but not panic and certainly not read too much into the media loving the narrative of 'another young fit and healthy person dead' headlines. On further investigation most of those articles are likely inaccurate in my opinion.



A quick google and you might be right. the condition actually is caused by an over active immune system, so a cytokine storm might be the explanation!

He died of septic shock I think.

@OnlyTwoDaSilvas is right, he was doing Prednisolone.

Judging by the rumours I think he lived in a crowded house with a very low socioeconomic status, so he was extremely vulnerable. I think the health system must have failed him somehow, an immunossuppressed child should either have stopped the treatment temporarily during this crisis (if possible) or placed in a more controlled environment.

 

[2cents]

I remember you posted a link about the virus coming back in cleared patients. Do you know if anything more has come out of that? If those people are asymptmatic/ fight it better// fight it worse, it will explain a lot I think.

Haven’t heard anything. But there’s so few of those types of reports that I’m hoping they’re reflective of procedural failures rather than re-infection. I’m still pinning my hopes on the summer slowing this thing down, although news from Florida and Louisiana is not encouraging in that regard.

 

[africanspur]

Interesting turn of events:

https://europost.eu/en/a/view/doctors-in-france-sue-their-prime-minister-for-government-lie-27633

Doctors in France sue their prime minister for 'government lie'

 

[africanspur]

Some Norwegian doctors have been prescribing it to themselves and their families and friends, which is a big no-no, particularly after the authorities made it a more restricted prescription to safeguard the supplies in case the trials turn out well (and obviously for people who actually already need it for other conditions). Some of them will hopefully be in a little bit of trouble.

I would hope so, what a ridiculously stupid thing to do, especially when the current evidence (unless something new has popped up in the last few days) is not conclusive in the slightest.

 

[Sarni]

I think this is the right approach. Take the right actions to protect yourself and others but there's no evidence at the moment that healthy relatively young people should be overly concerned.



Even if it is 0.2% it's likely many of the people contributing to that number in the younger age group have existing health problems. I'm not buying the current media narrative of all these healthy young fit people dying. They're loving it at the moment! The Daily mail posted a story about a 65 year old clearly massively overweight women claiming she had no prior problems, it's ridiculous!

I think nobody wants to contract this disease even the young, but if you are young and healthy there isn't any reason to be overly concerned at the moment. Most of the deaths in the young age group will be due to underlying disease. There will always be the odd statistical outlier though.

Well I agree, I was just pointing out that it’s not a complete insignificant risk. I’m 31 and mostly healthy save for high cholesterol, I am more concerned about possibly passing it to someone more vulnerable rather than contracting this myself.

 

[fergieisold]

Well I agree, I was just pointing out that it’s not a complete insignificant risk. I’m 31 and mostly healthy save for high cholesterol, I am more concerned about possibly passing it to someone more vulnerable rather than contracting this myself.

Yeh, it's definitely something to take seriously. I just don't want to worry too much. I have been a bit nervous because I drink way too much and probably have high blood pressure but at the same time I do crossfit so I count myself as pretty fit! Sounds like the high blood pressure association might actually be the meds rather than the condition!

I'm 32.

 

[Adisa]

No longer looking forward to the week. Staying at home is killing me.

 

[arnie_ni]

The logic seems to be that you get everyone "safest" from it to get it.
They'll then have it for 10-14 days or whatever the lifespan is, and then they are immune.

The more immune people out there, the fewer chances for at risk people to pick it up. It's almost like engineering the effect of a vaccine in a way.

This does though rely on the sudden massively higher amount of people carrying it staying away from people while they are contagious.

At the moment we're all staying in. The risk is that while short term this reduces cases what happens when we're all unleashed back out there with so few people immune? It most likely starts up again.

Why does flu pop up again and again then? Because it slightly mutates? Who knows this wouldnt?

 

[arnie_ni]

The argument is that with no vaccine in sight, lockdowns merely postpone the problem. As soon as the restrictions are lifted, people will get infected again. Developing immunity through infection is key to dealing with this, this is what experts seem to agree on. So young, healthy people may as well get infected now in a controlled way and then go back to work. Because if they don't, the economic impact will be disastrous and cause many more people to die.

I can see the economic benefit of it, if it doesnt slightly mutate and all those that are "immune" then come crashing down with it

 

[dwd]

No longer looking forward to the week. Staying at home is killing me.

It's actually doing the opposite.

 

[Sarni]

If this continues into June and I’m feeling secure about my job (I’m a manager in financial planning so I’d think my job should be fairly secure all things considered, we are going to be needed in the upcoming months I guess) I will be looking out for any of my friends or relatives who need some financial help. One of my friends is running a food truck business and they are on the verge of a collapse already, it’s going to get even worse with time so I’ll probably try to subside him for a while. Maybe buy a share of business but without any profit (e.g. a share of his profit after he’s back functioning but only until debt is paid off). I almost feel guilty that I’m still making good salary while so many are struggling.

 

[Utdstar01]

If this continues into June and I’m feeling secure about my job (I’m a manager in financial planning so I’d think my job should be fairly secure all things considered, we are going to be needed in the upcoming months I guess) I will be looking out for any of my friends or relatives who need some financial help. One of my friends is running a food truck business and they are on the verge of a collapse already, it’s going to get even worse with time so I’ll probably try to subside him for a while. Maybe buy a share of business but without any profit (e.g. a share of his profit after he’s back functioning but only until debt is paid off). I almost feel guilty that I’m still making good salary while so many are struggling.

Good on you mate.

 

[diarm]

This woman on BBC News tearing into the British government for not coming and rescuing her from the yoga retreat she thought it would be a good idea to go on in the middle of March.

Some people are so lacking in general self awareness it staggers me.

 

[Munkehboi]

Stay safe man. I don’t personally know what you’re going through, but I can see it when my wife gets home. Stay as rested as you can and make sure you’re minding your PPE. She’s off today, and will be interested in what you’ve said here, so I’ll show this post to her once she’s up.

Thank mate! Hope your wife has a good day off! She deserves it! Would be intersting to hear how its going for her too!

 

[KirkDuyt]

So many threads I could have put this.
We are a special kind of stupid.

 

[Utdstar01]

756 new deaths in Italy in the last 24 hours. SOURCE: BBC

 

[arnie_ni]

If this continues into June and I’m feeling secure about my job (I’m a manager in financial planning so I’d think my job should be fairly secure all things considered, we are going to be needed in the upcoming months I guess) I will be looking out for any of my friends or relatives who need some financial help. One of my friends is running a food truck business and they are on the verge of a collapse already, it’s going to get even worse with time so I’ll probably try to subside him for a while. Maybe buy a share of business but without any profit (e.g. a share of his profit after he’s back functioning but only until debt is paid off). I almost feel guilty that I’m still making good salary while so many are struggling.

Wouldnt a food truck business be doing more work than usual with the panic buying etc?

Not being nosey just shocked at that business taking a hit.

Unless you mean like a burger van idea which yea i get

 

[Utdstar01]

This woman on BBC News tearing into the British government for not coming and rescuing her from the yoga retreat she thought it would be a good idea to go on in the middle of March.

Some people are so lacking in general self awareness it staggers me.

Moron deserves it. You've made your bed, now lie in it.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

Michigan, Illinois, and Florida recently had elections.

Florida also recently had spring break, and Chicago is one of the more ‘urbanized‘ cities not on the NE seaboard as they tend to sprawl out as you head west (except for places like San Fran). It was expected.

Detroit is still an outlier, and it makes me wonder if underlying factors are playing a part; like the city being in decline and all that goes along with that.

 

[UnofficialDevil]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...erman-finance-official-linked-to-virus-crisis

This is a bit strange. Did he know something about the virus most dont?

 

[Adisa]

It's actually doing the opposite.

 

[Withnail]

So many threads I could have put this.
We are a special kind of stupid.

Couldn't have guessed it would be some form of the Mail

 

[SteveJ]

This woman on BBC News tearing into the British government for not coming and rescuing her from the yoga retreat she thought it would be a good idea to go on in the middle of March. Some people are so lacking in general self awareness it staggers me.

A useful idiot, considering the narrative from No. 10 seems to be: 'Never mind our glaring errors - just look at how irresponsible the public are!'

 

[Sarni]

Wouldnt a food truck business be doing more work than usual with the panic buying etc?

Not being nosey just shocked at that business taking a hit.

Unless you mean like a burger van idea which yea i get

He’s reliant on tourists and regular folk walking around the Jewish district where his food truck is located. Due to nature of his business (he makes chimney cakes) he cannot deliver them as they are only good to eat on the spot. There are no tourists as borders are locked and people are not allowed to casually go for walks either, especially around the touristic sites - most go for walks around where they live and few people live there. His food truck isn’t mobile either so he can’t take it to a place where more people live either. He’s basically selling 5-10% of what he used to and will have to close soon.

 

[arnie_ni]

He’s reliant on tourists and regular folk walking around the Jewish district where his food truck is located. Due to nature of his business (he makes chimney cakes) he cannot deliver them as they are only good to eat on the spot. There are no tourists as borders are locked and people are not allowed to casually go for walks either, especially around the touristic sites - most go for walks around where they live and few people live there. He’s basically selling 5-10% of what he used to and will have to close soon.

Sucks for those people. Is there no government help in his country?

 

[Cardboard elk]

US will see 100,000 to 200,000 coronavirus deaths and millions of cases, Fauci predicts

 

[Shane88]

200 new cases and 10 deaths in Ireland.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

200 new cases and 10 deaths in Ireland.

Keeping the case number steady but the death count is worrying.

 

[Brwned]

Everybody knows that lockdowns can't go on in the long run, but the initial phase is absolutely necessary in order to buy some time, analyze the data and figure out: "What kind of disease are we dealing with here? How can we tailor the next phase to fit in with our society and demographics?" In an ideal world, we would have locked every at-risk person inside a hotel with doctors and nurses for three months while the rest of us actively tried to get infected, but that ship has already sailed.

Yeah I'm not sure what @Pagh Wraith is referring to but the UK model that's informing the current policy predicts a huge 2nd wave after the restrictions are removed, because they will be removed before a vaccine is ready. The healthcare system will be overwhelmed, in every scenario predicted. It's just a case of being as prepared for it as possible, while trying to balance the social, economic and other health impacts. No-one is unaware that the social, economic and other health impacts of the current policies are significant.

This is the model from Imperial a couple of weeks ago, before the lockdown started. I'm sure the models informing other governments follow the same theme, just with variations on critical care capacity.

 

[Revan]

Fauci expects between 100k and 200k deaths in the US.

Yesterday, when asked why he is not cutting Trump’s bullshit (specifically that the ban to China saved thousands of lives) he answered ‘what do you expect me to do, let’s be real’.

It seems that he has had enough of the moron in chief.

 

[Penna]

Italy gets help today of a contingent of doctors and nurses from Albania. We've had help from China, Russia, Cuba and Albania - real pattern emerging there from the comrades!

 

[Volumiza]

The problem with the "herd immunity" approach was never that it wouldn't be useful to have a large percentage of the population become immune.

The issues were:

1) We had and maybe still have little reliable information on how likely people are to become infected a second time, which is a pretty huge issue if you're desperately depending on them not doing so.

2) Even countries that were trying their best to suppress the virus were seeing their healthcare systems get overwhelmed, so a more laissez faire approach with the specific aim of building herd immunity would have been a disaster in the short/medium term.

I mean it's fine for whatever scientists to point out that herd immunity would be very useful if immunity works that way in this particular case but I'm not sure what impact that idea is supposed to have on current policy given a health system like the UK's is about to get overrun as is. Of all the problems you're facing right now, a lack of infected patients really isn't one.

This. I can’t understand anyone being anti lockdown. Lockdown isn’t to stop everyone catching this virus and anyone that sees it that way are unbelievably stupid. The lockdown is purely to stop everyone catching it at once.

We can all see how infectious it is and anything that can cause serious viral pneumonia should be feared and respected.

If this virus was let loose on the world population all at once without any kind of control we would be looking at huge levels of fatalities. Every healthcare system in the world would be overrun and most likely most healthcare systems would collapse due to most healthcare workers either falling ill or worse.

Ultimately I do believe we’re going to have build herd immunity, I think that’s inevitable but every country has gone into lockdown for exactly the same reasons.Any time we can buy until a vaccine is developed and tested is a good thing.


Lockdown is clearly difficult for a lot of people but I believe it’s entirely necessary. For once, I agree with Boris. Stay at home, relieve pressure on the NHS, save lives. It couldn’t be clearer.

 

[golden_blunder]

Yeah I don't really follow the logic either.

I'm also not sure why continued isolation will put more pressure on the health services or am I reading that wrong?

I could be wrong but I assume the reasoning is that the more people who have had the virus and recovered; the less chance there is in bumping into someone contagious in a months time.

however that doesn’t work IF you can catch it more than once