SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

TMDaines said:
I should probably know this, but I wonder where the Manchester equivalent would be? Manchester Central/G-Mex?
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Gmex and the exhibition space near the Trafford Centre. Nec in Birmingham and Excel in London
 
bonothom said:
Who said that? I'm stating facts not predictions. On average 600,000 people die every year in the UK. A lot of people that die of covid19 would be among the deaths this year without covid19. There would be an overlap, even Patrick Valance admitted this.
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How much overlap?
 
JTW95 said:
I've found its still possible to get a full shop in if you are willing to compromise a bit on what you would usually get and try a different or more expensive version. More than enough stuff was in my local ASDA and Lidl to have plenty of meals for the week. Eggs were like gold dust but I can live without them.
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Luckily the supermarket i go to has a BM and poundstretcher just over from it so I can get pretty much everything in one sweep. Avoid going in the mornings at all cost, these seem to be peak times now and you're most vulnerable to be caught in crowds.
 
Berbaclass said:
New York having 12,000 new cases in a day is mental :eek:
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not really given its population density, esp Manhattan, Queens and Brooklyn.

Good luck forcing people to stay confined into tiny NYC apartments for required period without martial law too!
 
bonothom said:
Who said that? I'm stating facts not predictions. On average 600,000 people die every year in the UK. A lot of people that die of covid19 would be among the deaths this year without covid19. There would be an overlap, even Patrick Valance admitted this.
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Of for sure there will be a lot of overlap, there will also be a lot of people who had other unrelated illnesses/injuries who will die unnecessarily because our health system is overloaded with Covid-19 patients due to the rapid infection rate and lack of vaccine/antiviral.It's still not comparable to the flu
 
The latest figures for coronavirus-related deaths in England included a person as young as 18, the NHS says.

In total 37 people with the virus died today in England, all in vulnerable groups including with underlying conditions.

There were another seven in Wales, three in Scotland and one in Northern Ireland.
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BBC.
 
sammsky1 said:
Question to our Indian based posters:

How is Convid19 interrupting Modi's 'national ID' plans and the demonstrations against that?
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The demonstrations continue on a smaller scale than before, the census for the citizenship registry has apparently also been put on hold for now.
 
Garethw said:
I don’t think that is it at all. Personally I think that the decision to lock the country down has already been made.

The government are implementing smaller steps over a longer period rather than a singular large jump in one go. Rightly or wrongly it’s being done to allow the country to digest the measures more easily.

Also when we do get the total lockdown (in the next couple of days imo) he can lay the blame for the drastic action on the people that didn’t listen to him initially and continued to ignore the governments requests.
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That is EXACTLY what is happening. They have a 'road map' which will be a quick but individual roll out of actions, increasing in severity every time.

I just hope they allow UK nationals abroad home, as they have yet to instruct SOS to Brits abroad (my flight from Thailand is on 25th!)

From what I can see, and Im a labour supporter, I have sympathy for BJ and his Government. Despite his personna, he is a smart and resilient person, has good people around him, and has a great instinct for reading the mood of the nation (eg his rise from London mayor to PM).

Whether we like it or not, there is a balancing act between human life and future security and prosperity. Every Government decision is laced with is 'kill 1 person to save 100'. Every decision he takes has any least 40% downside. Just has to take the least worst decision every time. And he may make mistakes, but I'll trust them as well meaning for now.

Electorate have to quickly get their hands around that. Just follow his advice!!!
 
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sammsky1 said:
That is EXACTLY what is happening. They have a 'road map' which will be a quick but individual roll out of actions, increasing in severity every time.

I just hope they allow UK nationals abroad home, as they have yet to instruct SOS to Brits abroad (my flight from Thailand is on 25th!)

From what I can see, and Im a labour supporter, I have sympathy for BJ and his Government. I think BJ has good people around him, and has a great instinct for reading the mood of the nation (eg his rise from London mayor to PM).

Whether we like it or not, there is a balancing act between human life and future security and prosperity. Every decision Government is faced with is 'kill 1 person to save 100'. Every decision he takes has any least 40% downside. Just has to take the least worst decision every time. And he may make mistakes, but I'll trust them as well meaning for now.

Electorate have to quickly get their hands around that.
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Agree.

Some people will always resist being told what to do. But if you can convince them it was their own idea, they'll happily fall into line.
 
Just nipped to my local corner shop (about a 4 minute drive), got a 9 pack of bog roll and pack of spaghetti. Pretty well stocked. Cashier was wearing gloves.

Much better to go to these little shops as everyone seems to gravitate towards the hypermarkets.
 
Camy89 said:
Just nipped to my local corner shop (about a 4 minute drive), got a 9 pack of bog roll and pack of spaghetti. Pretty well stocked. Cashier was wearing gloves.

Much better to go to these little shops as everyone seems to gravitate towards the hypermarkets.
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This worked for me for a while. Ours finally had to close today as it had almost completely empty shelves though.
 
Ayush_reddevil said:
Watching the 6 pm news and the scenes from across the UK are so scary . Every park or garden is full of people , everyone's enjoying a nice sunny day . People really don't have a clue and England will soon have it worse than Italy
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I think being outside is ok as long as you're following the social distancing guidelines. In fact I have seen a lot more people out walking recently and there are health benefits to that.
 
With these press conferences, you've got Boris Johnson and his colleagues standing less than 2 meters apart in a room full of journalists passing around the same microphone asking why people aren't listening and self isolating.
 
Maybe yesterday was the peak? Let's see what tomorrow says. We want 600-700 or lower and not a jump above 1,000 again.

21b8fbf29de4688681a8ec45c487e088c763d178.png
 


Drop in cases with another 6k tested but I'm sure it will pick up after Sunday's activity and general defiance.
 
Camy89 said:
Just nipped to my local corner shop (about a 4 minute drive), got a 9 pack of bog roll and pack of spaghetti. Pretty well stocked. Cashier was wearing gloves.

Much better to go to these little shops as everyone seems to gravitate towards the hypermarkets.
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This has been my method for 2 weeks now. Suckers going to their big named supermarkets hahahaha!!
AHAHAHA!!
 
Grinner said:
So Italy could be peaking?
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Very hopeful talk but:

From day 1 of lockdowns
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~7 days for symptoms to show = 1 unconfirmed case
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~7 days for symptoms to show of the other 2 or 3 people you live with who are also now infected = 3-4 unconfirmed cases
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~7 days for symptoms to progress to hospitalisation in 50% of those cases and become confirmed coronavirus cases


We are two thirds of the way through that progression in Italy. I would like to hope that most of the people who are going to get this in Italy have already got it, even if they or the government don't know it yet.
 
ManchesterYoda said:
Maybe yesterday was the peak? Let's see what tomorrow says. We want 600-700 or lower and not a jump above 1,000 again.

21b8fbf29de4688681a8ec45c487e088c763d178.png
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Unfortunately we're nowhere near the peak I fear. It takes at least a couple of weeks for any measure taken to affect the statistics due to how the virus cultivates,and we've only just started taking some measure in the last few days.

Italy went into full lockdown weeks ago and are still being hit hard every day, we're still nowhere near introducing those kind of measures let alone seeing the benefirs
 
The flu comparison still floating around is hilarious according to Worldometer there is 340,000 cases and 14,500 deaths which is 4,7% death rate(also most people haven’t recovered) the flu death rate is 0.02. If the amount of people get this that get the flu worldwide we will be down millions of people in the next year or so.
 
One things for sure this whole situation has made me realise how much I hate the British public.

All those idiots that arent staying home and are treating this like a free government issued holiday travelling around further spreading the virus deserve everything they get. I cant believe there's so many selfish, thick idiots roaming around.
 
horsechoker said:
Peter Hitchens is a pseudo-intellectual who mastered looking intelligent by being well spoken and not saying ummmm
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He wouldn’t have had half the career he’s had without his brother associating the Hitchens name with intellect.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Ireland looks to have halted the exponential growth. 121 cases today.
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We are taking a lot of good steps most businesses are closed the only things really open are supermarkets and pharmacies and we have lines on the ground for distance also pharmacies are max 3 people at a time so are small shops
 
bonothom said:
Who said that? I'm stating facts not predictions. On average 600,000 people die every year in the UK. A lot of people that die of covid19 would be among the deaths this year without covid19. There would be an overlap, even Patrick Valance admitted this.
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a hell of a lot would be the common sense guess. Coronavirus may not even be the reason why some of these people have died, just that they had the virus when they perished.

we have very little detail on who has died.

If you were to have an average day based on 600k deaths per year, that’s around 1,650 per day that would die without us having the presence of Coronavirus. I am in no way downplaying the severity of it - but it does help with some perspective

Smores said:
How much overlap?
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I imagine we will have a good idea in a years time - it would be a guess right now.
 
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...ight-answer.html?ito=amp_twitter_share-bottom

I don't disagree. Especially with this part towards the end.


We are warned of supposedly devastating death rates. But at least one expert, John Ioannidis, is not so sure. He is Professor of Medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University in California. He says the data are utterly unreliable because so many cases are going unrecorded.

He warns: ‘This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4 per cent rate from the World Health Organisation, cause horror and are meaningless.’ In only one place – aboard the cruise ship Diamond Princess – has an entire closed community been available for study. And the death rate there – just one per cent – is distorted because so many of those aboard were elderly. The real rate, adjusted for a wide age range, could be as low as 0.05 per cent and as high as one per cent.

As Prof Ioannidis says: ‘That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05 per cent is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.’

Epidemic disasters have been predicted many times before and have not been anything like as bad as feared.

The former editor of The Times, Sir Simon Jenkins, recently listed these unfulfilled scares: bird flu did not kill the predicted millions in 1997. In 1999 it was Mad Cow Disease and its human variant, vCJD, which was predicted to kill half a million. Fewer than 200 in fact died from it in the UK.

The first Sars outbreak of 2003 was reported as having ‘a 25 per cent chance of killing tens of millions’ and being ‘worse than Aids’. In 2006, another bout of bird flu was declared ‘the first pandemic of the 21st Century’.

There were similar warnings in 2009, that swine flu could kill 65,000. It did not. The Council of Europe described the hyping of the 2009 pandemic as ‘one of the great medical scandals of the century’. Well, we shall no doubt see.

But while I see very little evidence of a pandemic, and much more of a PanicDemic
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This is a Professor of Medicine's opinion. I trust their opinion much more than I trust the opinions of politicians, people in the media and a public in panic mode.
 
rcoobc said:
itlveKp.jpg
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When you're doing out formulae to predict future numbers (I know there's no predictions here, but other posts had them with Excel sheets) how are you making the formulae for predictions, as a matter of interest? Lagrangian interpolation on the data points?
 
dannyrhinos89 said:
One things for sure this whole situation has made me realise how much I hate the British public.

All those idiots that arent staying home and are treating this like a free government issued holiday travelling around further spreading the virus deserve everything they get. I cant believe there's so many selfish, thick idiots roaming around.
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Nah. feck this. The government has been intentionally vague on their advice for the entirety.

It's not the people that are bad. It's the advice.
 
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