SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

massi83 said:
Median age in Africa is 20. 1 under 20 died in China. So because of demographics they have it easier. median age in italy is 46 I think.
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They have it easier for now because many countries have quickly closed their borders. However I look at the map today and a week ago, the entire continent is affected now. Also if there are doubts regarding the official number of people infected in developped countries, just imagine it in Africa.
 
kouroux said:
What's the obsession with toilet paper ? I don't get it. I'd rather use soap and water to clean my private parts extensively anyway and wash my hands like crazy after.
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No idea. Not sure whether it started with one person buying loads and social media has perpetuated the insanity? Is it a genius marketing ploy from Andrex? It's just people not thinking. For 30yrs I've scoffed at bidets...I take that all back now.
 
kouroux said:
They have it easier for now because many countries have quickly closed their borders. However I look at the map today and a week ago, the entire continent is affected now. Also if there are doubts regarding the official number of people infected in developped countries, just imagine it in Africa.
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Yes. But this kills mainly (not only) very old and sick. There aren't as many old people in Africa
 
Hugh Jass said:
This. At best you could only have three weeks food in your fridge and freezer. Then it goes off as well after some time has elapsed.

If you wanted to ride this thing out and go full hermetic and live off the radar for two years you would need a house sized freezer. Even still milk only lasts about six months frozen. Bread as well.
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One of the first things that sold out were freezers.
 
One nice thing in France, each night at 8 people are going out onto their balconies and applauding and cheering for the medical people to show their appreciation.
 
JPRouve said:
I don't know why he said it that way but a virologist at Montpellier CHU said a week ago that it was conceivable that the chinese and italian strains were different, due to the evolutive nature of coronaviruses.



We know about at least two different strains. One named S-Strain and the other L-Strain. I don't know more about it.
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I'm pretty sure this has been discredited.

In contrast, other experts in the field say the two types the Chinese researchers claimed to have identified were a result of both normal viral mutation and errors in data that they were relying on.


University of Queensland virologist Ian Mackay said there were fundamental problems with the study, including that some of the data, which was published on a database shared by researchers, had not yet been "cleaned up".

"[The differences] are sequence errors which in fact were corrected [by the submitting scientist] very soon after they were originally uploaded to the GISAID database," Professor Mackay said.

He said the patterns they identified were no more than normal variation.

"They're almost all identical. It's like us putting on different clothes from day to day," Professor Mackay said.

"I can't believe this has been peer reviewed. It's a weak paper and poor science."
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-03-06/coronavirus-two-strains-infection-study/12023822
 
Camy89 said:
No idea. Not sure whether it started with one person buying loads and social media has perpetuated the insanity? Is it a genius marketing ploy from Andrex? It's just people not thinking. For 30yrs I've scoffed at bidets...I take that all back now.
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Some companies are exploding their incomes it's crazy.
 
Kentonio said:
One nice thing in France, each night at 8 people are going out onto their balconies and applauding and cheering for the medical people to show their appreciation.
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Shamelessly copied from Italy, french people are still not disciplined enough to stay indoors though. The governement has seriously the fines for people who are outside without cause
 
kouroux said:
And spreading it will be far far quicker because social distancing is impossible here. How do you do that with households of 5-10 people ?
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Absolutely, I talked to a guy I know who is in Mozambique right now volunteering in areas afected by the floods and he tells me in some areas there are entire small villages living in one or two buildings. If this gets to those areas it will be horrific.
 
arnie_ni said:
Dont understand the penic buying. At most you self isolate for 2 weeks.

So day one go and buy 2 weeks worth of groceries. By day 8 you'll have ate a week, so go and buy another weeks worth.

You'll always have more or less 2 weeks stock on hand.

There's no call to buy a months worth of food every week. Its physically impossible to get through.
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The logic behind panic buying is the fear that there won't be any open stores or groceries left because the people responsible for the supply chain will stop showing up for work.

Only that in reality it usually happens only in disaster/survival/horror 28 days type of movies, not in real life.
 
FrantikChicken said:
It hasn't even started. Flu global figures:

"Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year."

The thing is the Corona cases are bound to be much, much higher than reported as most of us are not being tested.

www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year%3famp=true
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at the 1775 deaths/day you're looking at 650,000 deaths/year and it hasn't really started yet.
 
While I respect @Arruda being a doctor and his knowledge on the situation in general and his posts here from the very start of the thread up until now, it has nothing do with his knowledge of Wuhan hospital and situation in China before it came in Europe. He probably knows less than your average Joe about situation in China because he decided he isn't trusting and reading any news article, despite there being quite detailed news regarding this on BBC, CNN, many interviews and even articles from Chinese sites - he thinks all of that are fake news. By the looks of it he is not even aware that there were actuallty protests in China over this and that even their citizens are blaming their goverment for initial cover up and lack of reaction regarding this, and keeps blaming European countries for not reacting earlier.

By the 31st december, China did nothing, they were actually covering this story very well and sending police to anyone spreading news about it.

Anyone who still doesn't believe it should read this very detailed articles covering it really well, and not just like your average news site without any proofs, they are actually quoting many links directly from China:


https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/08/opinions/coronavirus-bociurkiw/index.html

https://amp.scmp.com/comment/opinio...sis-how-death-li-wenliang-doctor-and-ordinary

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/pol...se-academics-call-justice-coronavirus-whistle



And some others interesting links:

https://amp.dw.com/en/sierens-china-li-wenliang-a-tragic-hero/a-52373250


Until late on February 7, the state media could not yet decide whether they should even announce Li's death, and contradictory reports ran for several hours.
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https://www.vox.com/2020/2/4/21122072/china-coronavirus-healthcare

According to a January 29 report in the New England Journal of Medicine, by authors from the Chinese CDC, there were already health care workers infected in early January — something like seven health care workers infected. This is the smoking-gun evidence of human-to-human transmission.

But the public was not kept informed about this situation until January 18.
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sammsky1 said:
So Phuket and rest of Thailand including Bangkok is finally reaching lock down status: In Phuket, all bars, restaurants, massage spas, gyms and other places of social gathering have been closed. The gym I was training at and surrounding area of amenities shut down yesterday. Most tourists panic fled since last weekend.

So I essentially have the whole island to myself. And my flight isn't til next Wednesday 25th (when my visa also runs out). Every tourist related business is cutting prices for the few of us the remain.

So have checked into a stunning beach and sunset facing 5* hotel for £35 per night and will enforce physical distancing from here til my flight home to the madness of London next Wednesday. The beach in front normally has 500 people. Today there were 6 of us.

Have been getting so much valuable information on wagers happening in UK and Europe from this thread - thanks all for keeping me informed!
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come across a crazy Celtic fan whilst you’ve been there?
 
Grinner said:
So give us some professional knowledge then
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About what? Before being a virologist I was a nuclear physicist, before that I managed a football team.... so where would you like me to begin? :lol:
 
@sammsky1 A french prick influencer traveled to Thailand just before the confinement measures and was boasting how he'd be able to train with the open gyms there. A couple of days later, they closed down the gym he was going to and the man got some well deserved abuse on his page
 
The only thing giving me any sense of hope in this madness is the German numbers. What's going on there?
 
Camy89 said:
Seems like a responsible thing for a professional virologist to do. 10/10.
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Was being sarcastic. Also what you’ve read though my post history to quote was taken out of context, I did what I had to do to protect myself.
 
Giggs86 said:
The logic behind panic buying is the fear that there won't be any open stores or groceries left because the people responsible for the supply chain will stop showing up for work.

Only that in reality it usually happens only in disaster/survival/horror 28 days type of movies, not in real life.
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This is a horror movie. Not reality.
 
I know @4bars mentioned that people were flouting the ban in Spain earlier in this thread - I was suprised as it's been really quiet down south - but tonight there's a full on kid's Spanish birthday party* going on down the road from me. Seems like we're fecking idiots too (I'm Brit but in Spain 7 years).

I just don't get it. I can't understand the mentality.

*basically, the entire family potentially 50+ people, flamenco dancing, PA system and it'll be going on til 1 or so in the morning
 
Drawfull said:
I know @4bars mentioned that people were flouting the ban in Spain earlier in this thread - I was suprised as it's been really quiet down south - but tonight there's a full on kid's Spanish birthday party* going on down the road from me. Seems like we're fecking idiots too (I'm Brit but in Spain 7 years).

I just don't get it. I can't understand the mentality.

*basically, the entire family potentially 50+ people, flamenco dancing, PA system and it'll be going on til 1 or so in the morning
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Call the cops.
 
arnie_ni said:
Dont understand the penic buying. At most you self isolate for 2 weeks.

So day one go and buy 2 weeks worth of groceries. By day 8 you'll have ate a week, so go and buy another weeks worth.

You'll always have more or less 2 weeks stock on hand.

There's no call to buy a months worth of food every week. Its physically impossible to get through.
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This is wrong. If there are two people in a home and Person A becomes symptomatic, they self isolate for 7 days and Person B house isolates for 14 days. If Person B then becomes symptomatic on Day 14 or even the morning of Day 15, they would need to self isolate themselves for a further 7 days, which would be 21 or 22 days.

See here: https://assets.publishing.service.g...file/874011/Stay_at_home_guidance_diagram.pdf
 
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Every time we get the latest updates about people who have died in the UK, it is always accompanied with the fact that they had underlying medical issues. I wonder how true this is.
 
kouroux said:
Is he another virologist ?
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He is a doctor, not sure about his specialty.

I will say, as another doctor myself and one with some previous background in Public Health and Infectious diseases (but am NOT a public health or ID physician) that simply being a doctor does not mean you're an expert on this stuff. The people I'd really listen to in these situations are epidemiologists or people who work specifically in outbreak situations. Then Public health doctors/ nurses. Then ID doctors. Then regular doctors/nurses. Then regular people. Then celebrities. Then probably politicians.

Neil Ferguson for example, the professor who wrote the excellent paper credited with changing the UK and USA's approach, is actually a mathematician and epidemiologist for instance.

This is not to slight Arruda, myself or any other doctors on here or in real life. Just a reflection that being a doctor and specialising in, for instance paediatrics or dermatology, or still being in training, does not make you an expert in outbreak control and what strategy to take when facing a problem of this magnitude.

Having said that, his posts are always informative and clearly well researched and thought out. And (I believe) in his second language no less.
 
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