SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[UncleBob]

Curious how India, the world's second most populated country with 1.3 billion, has managed to largely avoid all of this (only 119 cases according to the Johns Hopkins site).

It''s pretty easy to explain it.

No sufficent testing.

 

[Smores]

In LA they have enacted a local law that landlords can't evict anybody because of this. I'm sure that will happen here. I'm not sure how I'd even do that from my rentals...not that I would even consider that though. I'm anticipating not collecting rents for a while but that's fine.

Hopefully the banks start to announce that they'll suspend mortgage payments. It really is something that the government should have put in place by now.

Going to take my laptop and work in the garden to try and forget about all this. Listening to officials describe re-running a computer model as science is tipping me over the edge.

 

[UncleBob]

Good point, hadn't thought of that.

If they are severely underreported then it could get out of hand once the real numbers come out.

Considering the size of the country and the population, a large amount will die without it ever being registered as a result of covid-19, i'd guess that plenty already have. It's also in their best interest to avoid it being registered as well.

 

[UncleBob]

Hopefully the banks start to announce that they'll suspend mortgage payments. It really is something that the government should have put in place by now.

Going to take my laptop and work in the garden to try and forget about all this. Listening to officials describe re-running a computer model as science is tipping me over the edge.

Banks will suspend about feck all until they have covered their own backs, and even then they'll be looking to keep making £

 

[Fully Fledged]

Will the hotter weather in europe come May / June / july / august more or less see an end to this virus? I dont recall myself or others ever getting ill in the summer. Is this strain different?
Pardon my lack of knowledge on the subject.

There’s over 400 cases in Qatar so it seems unlikely that dry warm weather will stop it.

 

[SirAF]

Jake?

Oi!

 

[Devil_forever]

However, the suppression approach comes with major problems.

It effectively requires shutting down parts of society and there is no exit strategy.

As fewer people would be infected there would be little immunity in the population and cases would soar soon after measures were lifted again.

This is the conundrum China now faces. Research suggests 95% of people in Wuhan were still susceptible to the virus at the end of January.

The report suggests we may have to wait 18 months for a vaccine, but even that is not guaranteed.

We could be in this for the very long term.

This new strategy may not actually work long term.

 

[b82REZ]

Dont think thats how it works. Day 1 to 3 was zero. The next 7 days was 94 then the next was 94 and so on.

It literally means days 1 to 7 is 94. Days 8 to 14 is 94 and so on.

Its not additional money. It just starts earlier

You're wrong

Under current sick pay rules, employees may only begin taking SSP on the fourth day of their absence - after serving 3 waiting days. By paying SSP from day 1, employees will receive an extra £40, on top of the normal rate of £94.25 per week, up to a maximum of 28 weeks.

The Prime Minister announced the SPP measure to Parliament, stating that “the Health Secretary will bring forward, as part of our emergency legislation measures... the payment of Statutory Sick Pay from the very first day you are sick instead of four days under the current rules.”

You actually get more than 114 a week under these rules. Still not enough for most of us to live on though.

 

[Grinner]

I reckon phone companies and TV and internet providers will be ordered to provide services for free.

 

[MDFC Manager]

Curious how India, the world's second most populated country with 1.3 billion, has managed to largely avoid all of this (only 119 cases according to the Johns Hopkins site).

Community transmissions are only just starting to pop up (think over the last 3 days). Not sure how many have been tested, I believe it's in the very low 5 figures.

It will grow for sure.

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

It''s pretty easy to explain it.

No sufficent testing.

Also less global movement in most of the country except the big cities?

Europe is struggling because Italy's manufacturing hub caught it and the frequency of movement within the continent pretty much caused the cases to explode.

I don't imagine there are many Indians taking ski vacations to Austria or cruise trips to any of the hotspots where the virus spread. India's population is also predominantly young with like 650M under 30 or something.

 

[redshaw]

What I'm saying comes directly from the Italian government... The virus is unpredictable and can be incredibly dangerous. Not always, but it can be.

The first patient here, a 38 year old, had a fever then recovered. A week later he woke up in the middle of the night unable to breathe and spent the next month in ICU.

There's also that couple on the cruise ship, they gave a detailed account on video.



I watched it a while back and he describes, occasional cough, and sometimes going to 37.5 or 8 in temperature but mostly fine, both thought they didn't have anything but tested positive. He describes a sudden onset of not being able to walk or breath.

 

[MDFC Manager]

The scale of it is going to be mental in India once it does 'peak'. I was there in October and the combination of population density, poverty and lack of access to care is a recipe for disaster.

Absolutely. It's a ticking time bomb.

 

[UncleBob]

I reckon phone companies and TV and internet providers will be ordered to provide services for free.

Can't imagine that'll happen.

I wouldn't be surprised if phone companies will have to provide roaming free of charge for those stuck in foreign countries.

 

[arnie_ni]

You're wrong


You actually get more than 114 a week under these rules. Still not enough for most of us to live on though.

Where is that quoted from because everything ive seen still says 94.25 per week

 

[11101]

I reckon phone companies and TV and internet providers will be ordered to provide services for free.

Already happened in Italy. Networks have supposedly removed usage caps for the duration, though i haven't checked mine.

 

[Grinner]

Can't imagine that'll happen.

I wouldn't be surprised if phone companies will have to provide roaming free of charge for those stuck in foreign countries.

Of course it will. You can't have people being cut off from information over an unpaid bill.

 

[b82REZ]

Where is that quoted from because everything ive seen still says 94.25 per week

That's the standard weekly amount and it does still state that on the .gov website. But after the announcement last week you'll get paid from day one so will get more a week.

I don't know if the 28 day limit will still apply though.

 

[hungrywing]

This new strategy may not actually work long term.

Indeed. But they'll adjust if they have to. End goal is the same as everyone else: to reach vaccination, assuming that happens. There are ways for them to get there without having to adjust tack majorly.

Already happened in Italy. Networks have supposedly removed usage caps for the duration, though i haven't checked mine.

That's not 100% free, though, or is it. Couple of US providers did the same; giving everyone unlimited data, suspension of late fees, no service cutoff for any reason.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

This new strategy may not actually work long term.

Again, as @Wibble stated earlier, life isn't just going to return to normal after a few weeks of a lockdown. This has to be a measured approach where people are let back into society throughout the year. Either way, we're in for the long haul but I'd rather go forward with an approach that doesn't actively seek to infect an many as possible.

 

[11101]

Indeed. But they'll adjust if they have to. End goal is the same as everyone else: to reach vaccination, assuming that happens. There are ways for them to get there without having to adjust tack majorly.



That's not 100% free, though, or is it. Couple of US providers did the same; giving everyone unlimited data, suspension of late fees, no service cutoff for any reason.

Well i cant imagine there is anybody who has a phone who doesn't already have a sim card from one of the networks in it.

 

[BluesJr]

Universal Basic Income has been needed for a while. This is the time.

 

[UncleBob]

Also less global movement in most of the country except the big cities?

Europe is struggling because Italy's manufacturing hub caught it and the frequency of movement within the continent pretty much caused the cases to explode.

I don't imagine there are many Indians taking ski vacations to Austria or cruise trips to any of the hotspots where the virus spread.

Considering just the amount of indian workers in foreign countries, going in and out of Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai, then onwards on crowded trains, i'd say India is going to struggle

 

[Lyricist]

The leader of the German disease information and prevention institute, the RKI, Mr. Wieler expects the current first wave of the outbreak to last for 2 years he said. The RKI is the institute that is leading, and guiding Germany‘s path in this entire situation.

I think it’s notable that he talked about the „first wave“. Horrible.

 

[arnie_ni]

That's the standard weekly amount and it does still state that on the .gov website. But after the announcement last week you'll get paid from day one so will get more a week.

I don't know if the 28 day limit will still apply though.

Im not convinced your right tbh but either way as you said its simply not enough. It would just about cover my mortgage.

 

[Bestie07]

Absolutely. It's a ticking time bomb.

India's only hope is that the warm humid weather slows down the spread of the virus. Literally that's the only hope. We're fecked either way once the winters come in.

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

Considering just the amount of indian workers in foreign countries, going in and out of Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai, then onwards on crowded trains, i'd say India is going to struggle

Considering most of Europe/Canada/USA have stopped or drastically reduced flights and travel, I'd assume a lot of them are staying put where they are.

 

[VorZakone]

Perhaps an odd question to ask but is the current total amount of cases (180,000ish) sufficient to predict how Covid 19 behaves in combination with many other illnesses people could have?
Or is 180,000 still too small of a sample?

I realise this may be a very hard question but perhaps someone knows the answer. Genuinely curious.

 

[Dante]

Curious how India, the world's second most populated country with 1.3 billion, has managed to largely avoid all of this (only 119 cases according to the Johns Hopkins site).

Back of an envelope calculation, but they have an over-65 population of 6%. That's a low proportion by European standards but still extremely high in absolute terms at 78 million.

If that demographic alone has a CFR of 15%, C19 could end up taking over 11 million people.

Dark days ahead.

 

[hungrywing]

Well i cant imagine there is anybody who has a phone who doesn't already have a sim card from one of the networks in it.

Hmm. Grinner and I might be talking about something different than you. We were talking about phone, cable/internet/tv providers. In the US, the phone and cable/internet/tv are not necessarily the same company. Don't worry about it. Not a big deal.

 

[Moiraine]

Curious how India, the world's second most populated country with 1.3 billion, has managed to largely avoid all of this (only 119 cases according to the Johns Hopkins site).

These numbers mean feck all until there is thorough testing. Situation can be really alarming in those countries and they don’t know it yet.

 

[b82REZ]

Im not convinced your right tbh but either way as you said its simply not enough. It would just about cover my mortgage.

I can assure you I'm 100%correct.

Mortgage payments will depend on your bank. RBS have offered to suspend things for me if I need it.

 

[JPRouve]

The leader of the German disease information and prevention institute, the RKI, Mr. Wieler expects the current first wave of the outbreak to last for 2 years he said. The RKI is the institute that is leading, and guiding Germany‘s path in this entire situation.

I think it’s notable that he talked about the „first wave“. Horrible.

I heard the same thing since December when it was still in China and why I have been conflicted between freaking out and accepting that it would arrive at some point and that we would struggle. But I really didn't expect it to be that contagious.

 

[Rob]

Has Britain still not closed the schools?

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

Universal Basic Income has been needed for a while. This is the time.

While I agree with the concept, now really isnt the time.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

Has Britain still not closed the schools?

No.

 

[UncleBob]

Considering most of Europe/Canada/USA have stopped or drastically reduced flights and travel, I'd assume a lot of them are staying put where they are.

The spread has been going on for some time now. Half the countries in Africa have diagnosed covid-19....

 

[Skills]

The leader of the German disease information and prevention institute, the RKI, Mr. Wieler expects the current first wave of the outbreak to last for 2 years he said. The RKI is the institute that is leading, and guiding Germany‘s path in this entire situation.

I think it’s notable that he talked about the „first wave“. Horrible.

Are they expecting it to mutate and comeback?

 

[hungrywing]

Perhaps an odd question to ask but is the current total amount of cases (180,000ish) sufficient to predict how Covid 19 behaves in combination with many other illnesses people could have?
Or is 180,000 still too small of a sample?

I realise this may be a very hard question but perhaps someone knows the answer. Genuinely curious.

Not odd at all. At least some of what you're wondering is already known.

Mortality increases with age, with the highest mortality among people over 80 years of age(CFR 21.9%). The CFRis higher among males compared to females (4.7% vs. 2.8%). By occupation, patients who reported being retirees had the highest CFRat 8.9%. While patients who reported no comorbid conditions had a CFRof 1.4%, patients with comorbid conditions had much higher rates: 13.2% for those with cardiovascular disease, 9.2% for diabetes, 8.4% for hypertension, 8.0% for chronic respiratory disease, and 7.6% for cancer.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

Are they expecting it to mutate and comeback?

I can't imagine being told that this is the new normal.