Lockdown going well then.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Lockdown going well then.
It would be need for a longer period time with each person in a separate hermetically sealed pod. It's the work of science fiction.
People staying at home wouldn't be enough because it spread amongst the households across that time, and after 2 or 3 weeks some would leave having only just been infected.
Wuhan is about as good a case study we'll ever have for an epidemic like this.
Like I said yesterday, the faster they can develop an antibody test and get China to test the vast majority of people there - then we'll really know the true extent of this.
It might do but I imagine life won't go back to normal for a few months. Isolations will continue, people working for home etc.
Theres a lag of about 2 weeks (asymptomatic people becoming symptomatic to becoming critical enough to requiring care). China started the lockdown in Wuhan at 400 people and it peaked at 80k.
Thousands? Millions of people are going to lose their jobs from this. It's going to decimate the entire world economy, I'd assume even worse than we saw in 2008/ 2009.
I'm started to get depressed just thinking about it all too much.
As you have said, children, for the most part are asymptomatic. However that does not mean they are not contagious.
We currently have three students whose parents/carer has kept of due to them displaying symptoms and we have two kids in school who have coughs and general cold like symptoms, but due to this misunderstanding about children and the level of risk COVID-19 to them parents have sent them in.
Yeah I expect Italy to get to around 100k before it starts to slow, Spain maybe slightly less. That’s conservative estimates.
I agree with you.
As things build, it is worth remembering Johnsons first speech about this
"... it should be business as usual for the overwhelming majority of people in this country, for the simple reason this is a great country, massively strong economy,...
The scientists have done a very good job of explaining to us what the risks are, and they are really quite small. They are appreciable, but quite small”
At the point he said this, several countries were in complete lockdown to control it. There are no excuses.
"... it should be business as usual for the overwhelming majority of people in this country, for the simple reason this is a great country, massively strong economy,...
The scientists have done a very good job of explaining to us what the risks are, and they are really quite small. They are appreciable, but quite small”
At the point he said this, several countries were in complete lockdown to control it. There are no excuses.
So whats the solution, look at Spains fugures to day, its been in locdown for a few days and still cases rise? There is NO solution to this.
I didn't want to sound overly dramatic. But I think you're probably closer to the truth.
And all those people on zero-hour contracts will remain 'employed' but actually be earning zilch.
Hospitals don't get to pick and choose based on insurance. All sick patients are taken in. I have never looked at a patients insurance in hospital when treating them. Now I'm employed, so don't depend on patients to pay me. So I can imagine this might be different for physicians who get paid by their own patients' insurance. But imo patients without insurance are taken care the same once they are in a hospital. This can be a big problem in big cities with a bigger share of uninsured patients causing losses for the hospitals.
Outpatient office setting is different. You can reject patients and insurances.
You are not very good with numbers. It takes time to be effective. In Wuhan numbers started to come down after 11 days of lock-down
https://www.moneyadviceservice.org.uk/en/articles/coronavirus-what-it-means-for-you/amp
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...bout-covid-19/covid-19-guidance-for-employees
Thers isnt one reputable site including gov.uk saying the ssp rate has gone up.
Its still 94.25 per week just paid from day 1 instead of day 4.
94.25 divided by 7 days multiplied by the 3 days additional you get is £40.
You get a one off additonal 40 due to it starting earlier, not 40 per week every week.
Your own post earlier even said this "Under current sick pay rules, employees may only begin taking SSP on the fourth day of their absence - after serving 3 waiting days. By paying SSP from day 1, employees will receive an extra £40, on top of the normal rate of £94.25 per week, up to a maximum of 28 weeks."
You won't see the effects for a few weeks yet. China locked down on 23rd January and it only started to decline around Feb 06.
The question is what will happen if they release the locks. European countries including UK, please observe and take note.
It's been two days.
But since you asked, yes it is - it's being well-respected. Apart from moronic British tourists in Benidorm.
It’s like jumping out of the fat into the frying pan
Yes that's true the decision on 'duty of care' is up to the Institution/Organisation etc.; however economic recompense that many will be seeking, after the event, has other elements to consider and one such element for state run enterprises in particular, is to follow the advice of Government. Where any organisation as deemed to 'know better' and have so to speak jumped before being pushed, it may well find it hard to claim compensation from HM Government retrospectively.
Like many insurers often do when it comes to paying out, they look carefully at the fine print to determine liability and since there has not been anything like this before, at least in living memory, any decision taken by Government about the limits of their liability will be taken with 'constitutional matters' especially in terms of setting precedence in mind!
Presumably you could look into it legally but you are then putting yourself in an invidious position regarding your employers.
You’d have to argue that as they are getting fees, they can pay afford to pay teachers. They may argue that they aren’t getting fees as clients don’t have a right to pay for a service they aren’t getting
Becomes something that could go on
It makes you want to pull your hair out doesn't it. I'm in China so been dealing with this since January. There was so much time for the rest of the world to prepare properly. Could see them repeat the same mistakes as China did initially, every step of the way.
I think it'll be much higher than that.
Using some poor math and assumptions (they really are poor assumptions because China their definition diagnosis half way through and their lockdown was even more stringent than Italy IIRC). Say the day you have 400 cases is Day 1. And you peak at 80k after 14 days with a uniform increase.
Now if you lag, that and make the day you have 1000 cases as your day 1. Your peak day (14) is then at 240k.
I agree.
Completely agree. This has been an utter catastrophic failure by all the governments of the world and the WHO.
The lax approach initially, the increasing concern when the outbreak begins, then mass panic once cases start to double and treble every day. Ridiculous.
That’s not how it works.
Thanks guys. If the answer is actually 'yes', I really fear the worst from an Indian PoV. Majority of us typically ignore mild symptoms (for any disease) and often just treated with OTC drugs. Healthcare is approached only when things don't fix themselves, as a last resort.
If/once this catches on over here, there's no lockdown that can stop it. We don't have the discipline/adherence of the Chinese.
Kinda amazed how lightly he seems to be getting off in the press over this (unless i'm missing something?) ... but then i'm also not.
Fair play to you, there are a lot of landlords who’d do differently
I'd rather be where my support system is best. Friends and family. Plus yanks will start going berzerk with guns in a few weeks
Please enlightne me, there has been plenty written on this but no answer that I can find. There have been a confirmed case of a new born baby being born with Covid 19 only to be given the all clear less than 17 hours later.
Average incubation period is 5.2 days or something like that. In Belgium the (semi-)lockdown only started Saturday so the numbers will (hopefully) only go down as from next Saturday as well, since a lot of people went out on Friday night to "celebrate" their last night of freedom (morons). Will probably be even later than that.
This WILL slow down, but everyone needs to adhere to the restrictions. A lot of awareness is raised around here which is a good thing, but I wouldn't mind a full lockdown either. It'd be a pity if we can't go out for a run anymore though.
I read a report saying that gun purchases have increased in the US since Corona hit them
Yeah that's the worst part. I could maybe live being somewhat restricted if there were still sports and stuff. I think what may happen is that in a few months some restrictions will be lifted, we will be able to go to restaurants and bars if we book in advance and they'll limit number of people they allow to enter. Cinemas will remain closed but there would be more distribution of movies via Netflix and other applications (I think world is headed in that direction anyway). Sports behind closed doors make no sense to me though.
Is there figures on how many nurses and doctors the lockdown has taken out of the system? A lockdown will slow the spread long term but the deathrate would surely go up short term?
Yes quite obviously they've risen, because there's a lag between the time it takes for you to get infected and the time it takes for your symptoms become bad enough to identify you.
If you desperately wanted this to stop quicker, you should've been listening to those who were screaming for nations to act EARLIER.
I actually think what this may do is completely kill freedom of travel to other countries, at least for a few years. When we all come out of full lockdown (which will happen even in the UK) then we will have to have closed borders for a period of time so that we don’t get any incoming infection from countries that are lagging behind us still. Then when you think how horrible this will be in India and Africa.....
It's not unthinkable that mortality will go down to 0.5% or something when the dust settles. We do not know the extent at this point.
That may well happen. Was supposed to go to US on May 1 for my first holidays in 2 years but it's probably out of question already. Hope I can do that by the end of year. I have Zanzibar booked for October but it's more of my wife's dream than mine.