SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Don't know if it's already been posted but guardian saying ebay seller in midlands selling toilet roll 72 pack for £51 quid?

Had a stash and people are buying.
 
sammsky1 said:
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That's irrelevant at this stage as this novel virus is just that, novel.

Might be worth remaking that image in a year from now for a better perspective as it's a bit like putting Salford in with the long established teams and comparing fan totals.
 
Munkehboi said:
So home now after a steady day. I was indeed Covid-19 triaging today. Only 13 patients to see, none admitted into hospital so none were tested however, I suspect one had it from travel history and previous contact with others and sore throat as only symptom. Was sent home. Still annoyed by some people who are coming in and ignoring the self isolation instructions. I suspect there will be more confirmed cases at my turst tomorrow/wed as test results start coming back from some of the in-patients admitted. Anyway shower, bed and back to it tomorrow. Luckily I won't be triaging tomorrow.

@Berbasbullet So sorry to hear this, my thoughts are with you and your loved ones in these difficult times.
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Just want to say thank you for the work you're doing. My girlfriend is a doctor in an emergency room, and she had to self isolate after contact with a confirmed case (before the hospital had bothered giving them PPE), and its terrified me, being worried about her.

So thank you, to you and all the other medical professionals in this thread.
 
JPRouve said:
Because experts have no idea about whether it's actually possible in the short term, we don't know how this virus work and one of the characterics of coronaviruses is their constent evolution. It's a speculative point, maybe it's possible, maybe it's not.
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I believe you.

However, they seem to present it in a way as if they're sure about it. There's little 'doubt' in the communication, just the odd note that it may 'take long':

"Whoever had the virus usually becomes immune to it. The greater this group (of immune people), the less likely the virus spreads to elders and people with health issues.

With group (herd) immunity we're essentially building a wall around the weak.

However, this process could take up to months."
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Ubik said:
There's no intent to it, in his case he's just incredibly self-absorbed and not able to see that he can affect others worse than himself. But I worry how many of those people there are about. Lockdown will be a relief at this point.
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Yeah. Lockdown is a medical necessity, at this point. Governments need to help people who would lose pay, though. This is an emergency - we cannot abandon people

Ubik said:
Something to hope for:
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I read at least 4-5 companies are starting a trial. It's really great news, but I also read these vaccines cannot hit the market for at least 12-18 months.
 
Prometheus said:
Prof Azra Ghani is one of the most qualified people to speak about this as well.
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Quote from the paper (my bold):

Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over.
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In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US. In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity.
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I must be missing something because to me that reads like the UK pursued one plan only to realise in the last few days what posters here have been saying for ages, that the health service would be massively overwhelmed?
 
sullydnl said:
I must be missing something because to me that reads like the UK pursued one plan only to realise in the last few days what posters here have been saying for ages, that the health service would be massively overwhelmed?
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I honestly don't think this is the right thread to start ranting about the Government but yes, it's bizarre, frustrating and just insane.
 
sullydnl said:
Quote from the paper (my bold):



I must be missing something because to me that reads like the UK pursued one plan only to realise in the last few days what posters here have been saying for ages, that the health service would be massively overwhelmed?
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It does very much read like that. The 'led by science' quote is such a terrible soundbite. It is perfectly ok to challenge the science and it is normal for the science to change. The lack of transparency is something that needs to change as soon as possible and the media needs pull its finger out in ensuring that happens (seem to be having a bit of an election hangover when it comes to holding people to account).
 
RedSky said:
I honestly don't think this is the right thread to start ranting about the Government but yes, it's bizarre, frustrating and just insane.
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Is that what it actually says though? I must be misreading it because they can't actually have fecked up that badly.

@Dante has been defending the government's position a bit, what do you make of it?
 
Is a government shutdown really not happening so businesses cant claim of insurance? Thats absurd if true
 
sullydnl said:
Quote from the paper (my bold):



I must be missing something because to me that reads like the UK pursued one plan only to realise in the last few days what posters here have been saying for ages, that the health service would be massively overwhelmed?
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Not only capacity will be exceeded, but it's also extremely dangerous to use all existing ICUs/beds for Corona patients. What about other patients? How do you isolate and where do you treat them? Instead we should be building emergency field treatment centers, as soon as possible. And both UK as well as US are more than capable of doing it. In both cases, military engineers can help with this and we have money. US already did something like this (smaller scale) during Ebola outbreak. There are actually things that can be used in a situation like this, we are not helpless. It's just that, as if out of spite, we had to get the most incompetent and irresponsible governments right when we need good government.
 
sullydnl said:
Quote from the paper (my bold):



I must be missing something because to me that reads like the UK pursued one plan only to realise in the last few days what posters here have been saying for ages, that the health service would be massively overwhelmed?
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Yep. Who knew?
 
sullydnl said:
I must be missing something because to me that reads like the UK pursued one plan only to realise in the last few days what posters here have been saying for ages, that the health service would be massively overwhelmed?
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It's almost as if the Government don't listen to those that work in the NHS and instead rely on 'expert' advice. They've never listened to frontline staff.

Twats.
 
VorZakone said:
I believe you.

However, they seem to present it in a way as if they're sure about it. There's little 'doubt' in the communication, just the odd note that it may 'take long':
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And the problem is that not only they can't be sure about it but several months means that thousands of people will be die due to actions taken knowing that they will definitely cause death. As I have said in this thread, in theory I udnersdtand the logic but this isn't an abstact model, we are talking about real life crisis management with real people dying and potentially physicians and nurses melting down.
 
arnie_ni said:
Is a government shutdown really not happening so businesses cant claim of insurance? Thats absurd if true
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At this point I don't know what to believe anymore.

It wouldn't surprise me if governments are telling the odd white lie here and there to reduce panic and protect certain interests.
 
Wolverine said:
Agreed and solidarity.

As an aside, I'm currently on a psychiatry placement (I'm a GP trainee). Going into obs/gynae in April but my last post was A&E and we've been sent emails telling us we'll be drafted into help. But have had no word about appraisals, exams and no training for PPE, mask fittings or even training with regards to ventilation/ICU equipment. All of which they should be mandating all SHO-level doctors to receive especially if they're going to dump us into the thick of it.

The way guidelines are for healthcare workers, we might also end up being superspreaders as they're not telling us to self-isolate even with confirmed non-PPE contact with covid patients and instead waiting us for us to be symptomatic which is insane.
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From talking to my peers, communication is pretty rubbish up and down the country right now. Some of my community/district nursing friends also recieved an email today asking about thier social/family status, training and skillsets. I think they are building a contingency plan to put in place if and when the majority of staff become ill and need to be covered. I for one know that my DN friends in the community, the majority have no training to work in ED/ICU and certainly not with the specific PPE equipment nor have they had fittings. I do know that they, along with retired nurses, student nurses and other school nurses will be asked to cover for those who are trained.

I hope this is also the case for you as it can be utterly daunting. I'm not an ED/ICU nurse but I've had some training and a fitting but still, even in triage all we get is normal PPE gear that you find a normal ward. I wouldn't be surprised if I am infected to be honest.
 
sullydnl said:
Quote from the paper (my bold):



I must be missing something because to me that reads like the UK pursued one plan only to realise in the last few days what posters here have been saying for ages, that the health service would be massively overwhelmed?
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Yep, exactly what it reads like to me as well. Bizarre, but yeah a lot of people have been saying it for days.
 
clarkydaz said:
Seems that way
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VorZakone said:
At this point I don't know what to believe anymore.

It wouldn't surprise me if governments are telling the odd white lie here and there to reduce panic and protect certain interests.
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I think they’re employing nudge theory. Its something they’re seemingly big fans of. The idea is that if you don’t go authoritarian and draconian straight way you get more patience from the public in the longer run. If you listen to Boris’s speech today you hear nudge theory ideas throughout it. My guess is that enforced closures will happen before long.
 
Knew it would go up a bit in Ireland the GP line has been busy 24/7 and testing has gone through the roof. Can see it increasing to 60+ tomorrow aswell
 
Just been told our office is closed tomorrow, and they have a very limited facility to let us work from home.

So that's about 200+ contractors who won't be getting paid for as long as this lasts.
 
Mogget said:
Just been told our office is closed tomorrow, and they have a very limited facility to let us work from home.

So that's about 200+ contractors who won't be getting paid for as long as this lasts.
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In Ireland 5% of the workforce was laid off in 24 hours this is going to be a big recession coming
 
Prometheus said:
Yep, exactly what it reads like to me as well. Bizarre, but yeah a lot of people have been saying it for days.
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Yeah. Except shouldn't that be front page stuff? "The UK has just realised in the last few days that it's plan will see the health service massively overwhelmed".

The lack of a reaction everywhere has me puzzled and is making me think I've missed something.
 
Tormund may have survived white walkers and dragons but he was no match for this virus.

 
Annihilate Now! said:
Incredible how the PM/Government stance is more compeltely different from all of 4 days ago.
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I even noticed it as a neutral(I am not from UK obviously), and asked it few times in this thread and many are still insisting they have a strict plan from the beggining. They obviously change their decisions every day.
 
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