SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Be interested to see how Universal Credit works on this. If and when it gets to a lockdown situation do work coaches just cancel appointments till there back working at job centres?

With people losing jobs I wonder how they apply if no one can see them at jobcentres.

Im currently on UC but on sick note as I dislocated my shoulder few months ago. I was an NHS contractor and was just let go. With no sick pay had no option but go on UC. Tough situation.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Of course they need more data. Every scientist that ever published anything ever would concede that more data would strengthen their argument. Likewise we’re obviously not comparing two identical scenarios. Real life research can’t always be done with precisely matched cohorts. Whatever, that data clearly supports the case for early, aggressive action. In the absence of any data that the Uk approach will save more lives (which I’d love to see someone share?) I think this is pretty fecking compelling about what is the right thing to do!
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Even those who wrote the paper don't make those conclusions. All they write is "We note that social distancing interventions were invoked on Feb 23rd in Lodi but until March 8th in Bergamo, providing some empirical evidence for the potential of “flattening the curve” interventions." That is it and they move on to other things. On Twitter meanwhile they caution against people drawing the conclusions that they want to draw.

You're comparing a small provincial town a third of the size of a regional tourist hub with the third biggest international airport in all of Italy. If this is the best you've got for employing immediate lockdowns, you don't have anything.

People need to be reading the source papers and comments from the highly respected academics who are producing this research, rather than the highly confident, more marketable and often more eloquent, rent-a-mouths and social media influencers taking their research and using it for their own purposes, which culminated with the absolute car crash interview between on John Edmunds and Tomas Pueyo on Channel 4. It's too easy to cherry pick this data, make a nice Twitter feed or Medium article, and make a highly polished, but entirely flawed, read that would be torn to pieces academically and shouldn't be used for policy making.

This is serious, interesting research, but it;s already being misrepresented.
 
MikeKing said:
How long does the virus stay with people who are infected? Say you are a young person infected with it and you don't feel very sick, yet you stay inside for 2 weeks or so, until the virus is done it's business. The more people staying inside for the right amount of time, young people not feeling sick included, the less spread. If there is less spread there is less chance of people being infected when they go out. If you can quarantine people for the right amount of time very early, it should be manageable to control the spread that way and eventually stop it from reaching every guy and their grandmother?
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About two weeks should be all right in theory. If it turns out you can't get re-infected, the spread will slow down gradually as there'll be fewer and fewer people you can catch it from.
 
Sarni said:
About two weeks should be all right in theory. If it turns out you can't get re-infected, the spread will slow down gradually as there'll be fewer and fewer people you can catch it from.
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As far as I know though there’s nothing much to suggest we’ll build an immunity to it, like the flu or cold. Hopefully that’s not the case though.
 
Shark said:
As far as I know though there’s nothing much to suggest we’ll build an immunity to it, like the flu or cold. Hopefully that’s not the case though.
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That'd be pretty tragic. If you can easily get re-infected with same risk it basically means it'll wipe out nearly everyone who's over 60 within 5-10 years, unless we find vaccine?
 
We really need to hope the re-infection thing is just false negative tests. If it’s real then yes we’re extremely fecked.
 
Kentonio said:
We really need to hope the re-infection thing is just false negative tests. If it’s real then yes we’re extremely fecked.
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Unthinkably fecked. The world as we know it would be over.
 
Kentonio said:
We really need to hope the re-infection thing is just false negative tests. If it’s real then yes we’re extremely fecked.
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Indeed. It could also be that, as described the the article above, the virus is bi-phasic - you get sick, recover and then get sick again (without actually being re-infected). Too soon to say.

Getting infected with SARS1 gave you immunity for 2-3 years - hopefully SARS2 proves to be the same.
 
André Dominguez said:
Older people have usually debilitated immune systems, which makes them vulnerable to being infected by the same disease again. It happens with almost every disease, not exclusive of COVID
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Isn't that just to different strains rather than the same strain? Of course that could be what's happening right now
 
Kentonio said:
We really need to hope the re-infection thing is just false negative tests. If it’s real then yes we’re extremely fecked.
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Post-exposure immunization doesn't usually work 100%, whether from vaccines or natural exposure to the pathogen. Some can get pretty close to 100% but it varies.

The cases of reinfection are so far anecdotal, so they may be explained by false-negatives and the above.
 
Shark said:
As far as I know though there’s nothing much to suggest we’ll build an immunity to it, like the flu or cold. Hopefully that’s not the case though.
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So long as the virus doesn't mutate you'll likely build an immunity to it. There's a lot to suggest that's the case actually. The body does build immunity to flu, hence we give small doses of the virus in a vaccine shot to build up immunisation. If you couldn't build immunity to it, vaccines would be pointless wouldn't they.
 
I mean there have been over 77,000 recoveries and less than a handful of “reinfections”

Pretty much a non event IMO, easily dismissed by a very compromised immune system, unreliable testing or that it was never gone in the first place.
 
Adamsk7 said:
I mean there have been over 77,000 recoveries and less than a handful of “reinfections”

Pretty much a non event IMO, easily dismissed by a very compromised immune system, unreliable testing or that it was never gone in the first place.
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That sounds rational.
 
saivet said:
I got a seat, getting on at London Bridge during rush hour. Could be a one off, but we'll see if it's the same again tomorrow.
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you will. Monday's are usually the busiest day on the tube too. it will get quieter and quieter.
 
Smores said:
Isn't that just to different strains rather than the same strain? Of course that could be what's happening right now
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For old person with a normal immune system yes. For those with weak immune systems, they can get the same infection. Some people even get infected by childhood diseases if their immune system is not working properly. That's why oncology patients are at high risk.
 
can we please stop with the world is over posts? i mean, christ. i can't imagine what this thread will be like in about a month's time.
 
André Dominguez said:
For old person with a normal immune system yes. For those with weak immune systems, they can get the same infection. Some people even get infected by childhood diseases if their immune system is not working properly. That's why oncology patients are at high risk.
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@MaxiPaxi this is the answer to what we were talking aout the other day. Thanks Andre.
 
stepic said:
can we please stop with the world is over posts? i mean, christ. i can't imagine what this thread will be like in about a month's time.
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there wont be a thread... there wont be an internet... we will be living in a post apocalyptic dystopia... the worlds population will be measured in the hundreds after the impending toilet paper war turn nuclear
 
So the Norwegian government and health authorities strongly encouraged people not to go to their cabins (a lot of Norwegians have them), because it puts the local government under heavy pressure that they are not prepared for. They went so far as to enact a law that enables them to ban anyone from being in a cabin which is not in their local municipality, since so many didn't heed the warnings. Completely reasonable, in other words.

Yesterday, some moron had a letter published in Aftenposten (a big serious newspaper), where he among other things quite literally compared himself as a cabin owner to Jews during the Holocaust. Because he's not allowed to go to his cabin for a few weeks.

quick translation said:
So I stand there with the triangle of the cabin-people on my chest, waiting for society's uniformed men to come and take me away
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This is the worst person in Norway.
 
stepic said:
can we please stop with the world is over posts? i mean, christ. i can't imagine what this thread will be like in about a month's time.
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If the progression rate holds we only get a million infected by then. (A billion infected in three months.)

Emphasis on the 'if the progression rate holds' part.
 
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