SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

This is page is absolutely brilliant:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/


The y-axis is the number of people. The x-axis is time. Blue is healthy, brown is infected, pink is recovered.

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I've (arbitrarily) added a line to show medical services capacity (ymmv)
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Anyway, I think the UK is going for moderate distancing to start with (to delay until the summer), then a brief attempted quarantine just before the NHS gets overwhelmed.

Extensive distancing looks like the best solution from a theoretical point-of-view. But the number of recoverees is going to remain low, meaning measures will need to be in place for a very long time before the population gets given all its freedoms back. The risks are that the disease makes a resurgence from home/abroad if somebody sneaks through, or it could potentially turn into a free-for-all if we lift too soon, or that people simply might not obey (particularly unaffected younger people who don't see the fuss after being cooped up for months on end).

Whatever the case, the idea of flattening the curve is a little bit misleading. It's more like splitting the curve, so as to produce two peaks, and then flattening the peaks.
 
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Kentonio said:
Dunno if I actually had it or not, but 2 weeks ago was absolutely floored with fever, then by the weekend was practically fine again, and then the following week (and up until now) just been feeling tired and pretty crappy with a persistent cough.
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Same here tbh, had exactly the same symptoms in the 1st week of January. Then the next weeks I seemed to be dipping back in and out of feeling awful, only now in the last week or so do I feel like i'm finally back to feeling energetic again.
 
What’s this about ibuprofen making it much more lethal? Sounds like Facebook bollocks but I just took some because I woke up with a fecked neck so am I going to die?
 
sunama said:
Confinement to homes, is basically a curfew.
That would be brutal.
How do people get food?
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The report is fake, grocery stores stay open but the amount of people inside is limited. There should be new instructions tonight.
 
VeevaVee said:
What’s this about ibuprofen making it much more lethal? Sounds like Facebook bollocks but I just took some because I woke up with a fecked neck so am I going to die?
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I don't know the details but in France it's officially discouraged to use ibuprofen, paracetamol is the way to go.
 
Hernandez - BFA said:
Whether some (I'm going to say it) ignorant people don't believe the hype of all this or not, the butterfly effect of this is going to be vile on the NHS.
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Agreed and solidarity.

As an aside, I'm currently on a psychiatry placement (I'm a GP trainee). Going into obs/gynae in April but my last post was A&E and we've been sent emails telling us we'll be drafted into help. But have had no word about appraisals, exams and no training for PPE, mask fittings or even training with regards to ventilation/ICU equipment. All of which they should be mandating all SHO-level doctors to receive especially if they're going to dump us into the thick of it.

The way guidelines are for healthcare workers, we might also end up being superspreaders as they're not telling us to self-isolate even with confirmed non-PPE contact with covid patients and instead waiting us for us to be symptomatic which is insane.
 
Finland Just declared a state of emergency. Borders will be closed, Schools will be closed, People over the age of 70 are put in a quarantine, crowds over 10 people are banned among other things.
 
Wolverine said:
Agreed and solidarity.

As an aside, I'm currently on a psychiatry placement (I'm a GP trainee). Going into obs/gynae in April but my last post was A&E and we've been sent emails telling us we'll be drafted into help. But have had no word about appraisals, exams and no training for PPE, mask fittings or even training with regards to ventilation/ICU equipment. All of which they should be mandating all SHO-level doctors to receive especially if they're going to dump us into the thick of it.

The way guidelines are for healthcare workers, we might also end up being superspreaders as they're not telling us to self-isolate even with confirmed non-PPE contact with covid patients and instead waiting us for us to be symptomatic which is insane.
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At least you'll get to experience the sheer elation of finishing A&E a second time. An unparalled experience!
I'm starting GP training come August as I've sacked off the idea of being a surgeon after 2 years of it.

You're 100% right regarding the superspreading comment. The doctor who was dealing with the patient I mentioned in my previous comment, literally within 50cm of his face while listening to his chest etc - he's been told that he should continue to come into work until he starts displaying symptoms. He is not getting tested. I mean what the actual feck?
 
So are some universities disregarding the government's advice by moving to online-only/Distance learning? I mean they haven't been told to shut down.
 
For the other form of ignorant people who think "feck it - may as well get it now so I can say I've had it now and not worry about it" -

In China and Italy, they have been doing follow up high resolution CT scans of chest of those who've had Covid19 and have recovered. For the vast majority, it has shown lung scarring that will likely be irreversible. Sure, when you're 20/30/40 - you may not care that much about it because your lung capacity can overcome it - but you'll struggle big time when you're older. This isn't strictly 100% fact yet as it's too soon to say for sure, but it's been a common finding in these recoverers so far so likely be true.
 
RedTiger said:
I do want the ban because funnily enough, people who have had a couple of drinks tend to let their hygiene levels drop and I don't want my place to be responsible for an outbreak that might somehow get back to my parents.

Ideally though I'd very much like to run a limited takeaway service so I can pay my mortgage and domestic utility bills, but if it is a total shutdown then I will happily follow it for the sake of my parents.
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Saw a screenshot of a twitter of facebook post, some restaurant employee in the US told his boss that their new dine-in promotion that the boss was pushing is a health risk, got fired, and then the city banned all dine-in later the same day.
 
Hernandez - BFA said:
For the other form of ignorant people who think "feck it - may as well get it now so I can say I've had it now and not worry about it" -

In China and Italy, they have been doing follow up high resolution CT scans of chest of those who've had Covid19 and have recovered. For the vast majority, it has shown lung scarring that will likely be irreversible. Sure, when you're 20/30/40 - you may not care that much about it because your lung capacity can overcome it - but you'll struggle big time when you're older. This isn't strictly 100% fact yet as it's too soon to say for sure, but it's been a common finding in these recoverers so far so likely be true.
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Is this genuine? I only heards about 30% capacity reduction for those who had it, which was based on a study of 12 people and 3 of them showed damage after illness.
 
Every day I am awaiting Italy data in fear. It will break 4000/400 today, won't it?
 
Sarni said:
Is this genuine? I only heards about 30% capacity reduction for those who had it, which was based on a study of 12 people and 3 of them showed damage after illness.
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As I said, it's not 100% fact yet as they are still doing studies into it. But I've literally just spoke to two medical consultants (One General Medicine and the other Respiratory Medicine) and both quoted the same research that I mentioned above. Even if it's going off the study you've mentioned - that's 25% of having lung scarring, which is still distressing.
 
Sarni said:
Every day I am awaiting Italy data in fear. It will break 4000/400 today, won't it?
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Probably it will take another week minimum before it gets better. The first towns under lockdown however are experience very few cases now though. If this thing about treating the virus with ibuprofen (and making it worse) is true then it might help to explain the death toll.
 
Virgil said:
UK increase in confirmed cases in last 24 hrs 171. encouraging that it’s a decrease on yesterday. I know it’s probably a one off but any downward trend if only for a day is a bonus. More interesting that we have tested over 44k which is well up with the numbers being tested elsewhere In the West.
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That's very likely due to the change in strategy, only testing those in hospitals. The delay between when the change happened and todays results is probably due to it taking two-three days for tests to return.
 
Sarni said:
Every day I am awaiting Italy data in fear. It will break 4000/400 today, won't it?
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Cases should start to slow down soon as we are 7 days after the nationwide lockdown begun, although it didn't really take full effect until a couple of days later. Whether that starts to show yet i am not sure considering so many people travelled to escape the Lombardy lockdown and others made the most of their 'last weekend'.

Authorities have also cautioned against the 4-7 day incubation period because anybody who gets it even in lockdown will likely also spread it to all their family members, who then all have their own incubation period. In reality it's more like two incubation periods before the cases start to really slow down.
 
Adam-Utd said:
Same here tbh, had exactly the same symptoms in the 1st week of January. Then the next weeks I seemed to be dipping back in and out of feeling awful, only now in the last week or so do I feel like i'm finally back to feeling energetic again.
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I'm not saying I've had it, but just after Christmas I went to Portugal and there was an very contagious and pretty heavy bout of 'something' floating around the general backpacker scene. I had it twice, in the space of about 6-7 days, the first time it took around 2days to fade, the second time I was still feeling rough back home (so in total, it probably lasted about 7days). The symptoms were a dry, repetitive cough; a sore throat; a mild temperature/aches. The weird part was that it was NEVER all three at once - it seemed to go from one symptom to the other, then back to symptom 1 again. Then it just faded out.

My parents both had it mildly, too. Whenever I have flu-like symptoms, they are completely gone within a few days whereas this seemed much stronger.

Again, it blatantly wasn't corona but it certainly has similarities and it's crazy that something as similar was floating around Europe back in January. This shit has been in Europe for longer than we think, I reckon, in some shape or form.
 
11101 said:
Cases should start to slow down soon as we are 7 days after the nationwide lockdown begun, although it didn't really take full effect until a couple of days later. Whether that starts to show yet i am not sure considering so many people travelled to escape the Lombardy lockdown and others made the most of their 'last weekend'.

Authorities have also cautioned against the 4-7 day incubation period because anybody who gets it even in lockdown will likely also spread it to all their family members, who then all have their own incubation period. In reality it's more like two incubation periods before the cases start to really slow down.
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Thanks. So realistically we should be able to assess it in early April. I wonder when countries will start opening their borders, probably when it's safe everywhere? We won't bring it down to 0, just slow it down at this point but how do we know it won't break out rapidly once we open up places and allow people to go out? It's not like large proportion of population will be immune then.
 
Alabaster Codify7 said:
I'm not saying I've had it, but just after Christmas I went to Portugal and there was an very contagious and pretty heavy bout of 'something' floating around the general backpacker scene. I had it twice, in the space of about 6-7 days, the first time it took around 2days to fade, the second time I was still feeling rough back home (so in total, it probably lasted about 7days). The symptoms were a dry, repetitive cough; a sore throat; a mild temperature/aches. The weird part was that it was NEVER all three at once - it seemed to go from one symptom to the other, then back to symptom 1 again. Then it just faded out.

My parents both had it mildly, too. Whenever I have flu-like symptoms, they are completely gone within a few days whereas this seemed much stronger.

Again, it blatantly wasn't corona but it certainly has similarities and it's crazy that something as similar was floating around Europe back in January. This shit has been in Europe for longer than we think, I reckon, in some shape or form.
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I think we may have well had it already in Europe when China discovered first cases. All it takes is one person getting it and transferring to someone who then travels to Europe.
 
The local schools in my area in Northern Ireland are having a meeting amongst themselves to see if they will close or not. Theyre taking it out of the governments hands. Many local businesses are already locking up on their own accord
Arlene foster and the DUP are losing the people again. As in Brexit they look to London for their lead instead of what the people are urging them to do.
We are an islannd, use it to our advantage for feck sake
 
A 28 year old mate of mine is in Belfast City Hospital with symptoms. One of his work colleagues has recently came back from Italy.
 
cyberman said:
The local schools in my area in Northern Ireland are having a meeting amongst themselves to see if they will close or not. Theyre taking it out of the governments hands. Many local businesses are already locking up on their own accord
Arlene foster and the DUP are losing the people again. As in Brexit they look to London for their lead instead of what the people are urging them to do.
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Good job.
 
Hernandez - BFA said:
Have 3 confirmed cases in our hospital now. They've picked a ward that will now be considered the "Covid Ward". Feel sorry for the nurses there - not what they signed up to when they applied for that ward but there we go. Getting my mask fitted on Wednesday, but the massive clear error is that we don't actually get to wear these masks until we're dealing with a confirmed case.

A friend of mine worked the weekend and a story is going round that a gentleman was sat in A&E for about 4 hours, in midst of other patients and relatives. He came in for a very unrelated medical problem to the Covid-like symptoms, but medical enough that it warranted a transfer to a nearby hospital for specific treatment. Before he left, they realised he had complained of cough for a few days. They "on the safe side" swabbed him for Covid-19. Didn't wait for the results. Sent him in an ambulance, and before he's even arrived the swab results come back positive for Covid19. So already you have the huge incidents of having a Corona positive patient sat in middle of an A&E waiting room for 4 hours in middle of other people, the medical staff (doctors and nurses) who were dealing with him unsuspecting that he's got it and then transferring him in an ambulance to another hospital where now they will have to a very quick plan to where to isolate him while trying to actually treat his initial medical problem too.

All of our electives are cancelled. We're just standing around looking after the post-operative patients from the last few weeks at the moment.

Already plans for new "dirty rotas" which will see people do 1 week of nights, 1 week of 12 hour shifts, 1 week off, 1 week of ward work, rinse and repeat.

Whether some (I'm going to say it) ignorant people don't believe the hype of all this or not, the butterfly effect of this is going to be vile on the NHS.
I've told my 60 odd year old parents to stay in doors now - order food online etc.
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Jesus, that's a horror story. The bolded part in particular doesn't give you much confidence in the management does it. Best of luck to you and all the doctors and nurses at your hospital.
 
Irwin99 said:
So are some universities disregarding the government's advice by moving to online-only/Distance learning? I mean they haven't been told to shut down.
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No they haven't , but yes various state bodies, as well as private organisations (e.g. Premier League) are 'jumping the gun' on the advice coming from Government and taking things into their own hands, anticipating what will come next etc. The downside will come when they find that the Government won't/may not recompense them, precisely because they jumped the gun and took things into their own hands, hence what follows/results is all at their own cost/risk.

Lots of other companies/organisation are waiting for 'starters orders' from HM Government, even though they may perceive there is a imminent risk. The health v economic risks are only just emerging and being quantified in many areas and some who went early may find they lose out on both counts!

The Government has emphasized all along that it is following the models drawn up by both medical and economic experts. When companies, organisations and even groups of ordinary individuals act outside these models, they risk not only affecting the outcome of the models but also of sowing confusion in the populace in general and the 'Dads Army' Corporal Jones syndrome appears... don't panic...don't panic... ensues. There is a danger of the Government having to move to a Martial Law/Riot Act scenario in the most extreme cases.
 
Interesting that the BBC have reported the locations of the deceased in the UK.

They have reiterated, as we all knew that each one had underlying health problems but it would be interesting to know how many of the people who have sadly lost their lives were already in hospital and how many picked it up and were admitted as a direct result.
 
I think Ibuprofen essentially stops the immune system doing its job because it quietens all of the defences down, meaning you're more likely to get fecked by the virus if you take it.
 
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