SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
If this thread is anything to go by, I see no way humanity can come together to find a solution.
Have you seen the science to make such an assertion? I don't think you have because it's not widely available
And that's where the logic defies their "science". Italy's system is already overwhelmed with just 20k cases. How on Earth a system is gonna be able to cope with a few million sick at the same time (which is inevitably going to happen if Wuhan-like containment does not happen)?
To be fair, you've been in here all day acting as if the scientist advising the UK and Sweden are on one side and everyone opposing them are just lay people who know nothing. You accusing people of acting like twats is a pot - kettle situation.
Can someone threadband @Revan, he is purposely trying to demoralize everyone. 
Most people recognise that, there seems to be a few posters on here acting like only the UK has science behind them though.
I know it's an emotive issue, but calm down and stop throwing around insults.
Absolutely correct - something that literally nobody is talking about.
As if teachers don't have co-morbidities, or family members at home with them.
It's crazy how little this has been mentioned in the UK debacle.
Wayne Rooney wrote that he felt like footballers were being treated as Corona-virus Guinea Pigs, I know a few teachers who feel exactly that way.
Currently Nike and Apple employees are being better protected by their companies than U.K teachers are by their Government...
But as I've said before - Healthcare and Education are the regular kicking posts for Tory politics. I guess we shouldn't be surprised.
Because science apparently.
Get on the rugby league JP, it’s still on in the U.K.I was tempted to ask that question a few days ago when basically all sports league stopped. We are going to go absolutely mental, we don't have our sport fix and are still roaming the forum trying to interact with each others.
I know you’re a union man, but beggars can’t be choosersnods.
Once again @Revan, Italy has a much higher population of risk zone citizens. And a much higher population of elderly who live with their families.
It has to be different for each country surely?
It's also been mentioned about a thousand times here and by the UK, that the UK will shutdown, when the model hits the numbers where they see the NHS cannot cope. Now the model is not based on actual reports, but a modelled figure of the infected.
Are we living in the same reality? Everybody chant feck the elderly & vulnerable!
It’s not about declaring a need. If I lose my mum and dad (by implication, that isn’t some thing you’re worried about personally) then I’ll be pretty fed up about it. If I had grandparents to lose, that would be much less shittier on the shitty scale. So if you don’t mind, I’ll continue to be a bit fecking pissed off about the decision they made a fortnight ago and their current situation. Sorry for rant.
In regards to events like concerts still going on in the UK, I see the country in a similar stage to China over the Spring festival. Everyone knew about the virus and was concerned but were still in the 'show must go on' stage. It won't last much longer. But after that China did do a good job in containing it, at least for now. So I'd still like to believe it's possible.
I wish the virus only targeted the dumb ones and not the old and weak. Would solve so many problems.
You're the one assuming that your actions don't have potential consequences for others. Parts of your post were daft, you can't really complain if people laugh about them.
You won't get an infraction for calling me amazing, so don't worry about doing it.
Yes, and Italy is fecked * . So why UK is trying to reach the Italy's point to do the inevitable lockdown? Can anyone give a single reason why a lockdown a week from now is better than a lockdown today?
Also, there is data that is saying that many young and healthy people need ICU. Not a problem when there are a few hundred (or even thousands of them). A giant problem when you have hundreds of thousands of them.
* I don't mean fecked 2k dead people. I mean fecked fecked.
On experts, this is really disappointing from The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...st-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19
A world leading epidemiologist from the US telling us off when it’s pretty clear he’s only looked at media headlines as to what’s going on. He tells us that we should be doing exactly what we have been doing and what we will be doing as per the government plan.
The UK should not be trying to create herd immunity, that will take care of itself. Policy should be directed at slowing the outbreak to a (more) manageable rate. What this looks like is strong social distancing. Anyone who can work from home, should. People who do not yet work from home should be encouraged to do so. Employers should guarantee sick pay, including for contacts of known cases, and do everything they can to discourage the practice of “presenteeism”. You should not shake hands. Not with anyone. You should wash your hands for 20 seconds several times a day and whenever you enter your home (or someone else’s home). Call a halt to large gatherings. Educate people about masks and how they should be reserved for the medical professionals who need them. All this and more should have started weeks ago.
Deciding whether to close schools is hard; they do so much more than just education. But this is a pandemic, and so you should expect they will be shut sooner or later. In Hong Kong, they have been shut for weeks. If you hear any talking head on TV explain that kids don’t get sick, remember that doesn’t mean kids cannot be infected and transmit. It’s probably a good idea to hold off on visits to Nana and Grandpa.
Only anecdotally but I did some of the coronavirus policy at work a couple of weeks ago. You couldn’t get hold of gels etc for love nor money from big national suppliers. We’ve kept people off that had any cold symptoms.
The idea that we’re all living as normal is completely false.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...st-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19
A world leading epidemiologist from the US telling us off when it’s pretty clear he’s only looked at media headlines as to what’s going on. He tells us that we should be doing exactly what we have been doing and what we will be doing as per the government plan.
The UK should not be trying to create herd immunity, that will take care of itself. Policy should be directed at slowing the outbreak to a (more) manageable rate. What this looks like is strong social distancing. Anyone who can work from home, should. People who do not yet work from home should be encouraged to do so. Employers should guarantee sick pay, including for contacts of known cases, and do everything they can to discourage the practice of “presenteeism”. You should not shake hands. Not with anyone. You should wash your hands for 20 seconds several times a day and whenever you enter your home (or someone else’s home). Call a halt to large gatherings. Educate people about masks and how they should be reserved for the medical professionals who need them. All this and more should have started weeks ago.
Deciding whether to close schools is hard; they do so much more than just education. But this is a pandemic, and so you should expect they will be shut sooner or later. In Hong Kong, they have been shut for weeks. If you hear any talking head on TV explain that kids don’t get sick, remember that doesn’t mean kids cannot be infected and transmit. It’s probably a good idea to hold off on visits to Nana and Grandpa.
Only anecdotally but I did some of the coronavirus policy at work a couple of weeks ago. You couldn’t get hold of gels etc for love nor money from big national suppliers. We’ve kept people off that had any cold symptoms.
The idea that we’re all living as normal is completely false.
Depends how smart you have to be to survive the chop. We might all be in trouble on here.
The reason they are giving is that a lockdown now, if the model is correct, will have little effect on the spread. It's everywhere.
Lockdown now and there's no going back, and the strain the lockdown will put on public services will feck everything, including the NHS if it goes on too long. The idea behind the science is that the UK, start the lockdown BEFORE we hit Italy's point.
That could be in 2 days, 5 days. But the UK will lockdown. Doing it now when the NHS are holding up fine and can absolutely help with a lot more cases, will cause more problems than it solves. There is sound logic behind it.
Pretty sure the UK would still be fecked.
I think generally undiagnosed cases of the normal flu are factored into the flu figure, through years of modelling etc. They can't do that with Covid-19 yet as it's an unknown quantity
Look at your posts, you're not saying it but you've been acting like it all day. You keep telling people that science is backing up the UK and Swedish governments decisions and ignoring the scientists on the other side. It's one of the reasons people are still quoting what other scientists are saying to you.
Italy did all of this several week ago. Try to work from home, wash your hands, so social distancing. It didn't work. It was already too spread for it to work.
That will be needed long term but a total lockdown for a few months is inevitable. If we can set back the number of infected to only a few hundred cases, then social distancing and washing your hands might work. But not with tens of thousands of infected people.
The good old ‘if they don’t prove it’s me I’m not bothered’ attitude. You sound like a lovely human.
Pubs, restaurants and coffee shops closed in Holland till 06/04
The government is exactly going for people like you when they have altered their strategy to spam terms like "scientific advise", "herd immunity" and started presenting blank non-sense graphs in the media instead of relating to us a sound, cogent explanation of their strategy. I'm not a virologist, but I studied mathematics and know for a fact that any first year who has taken any courses in dynamical systems or statistical analysis would tell you that their strategy doesn't make any mathematical sense.
You don't have to take my word for it, some of the greatest mathematicians of our time have come out and pointed out that the strategy doesn't check out mathematically. Go and find their explanations.
Now, no one is saying the government is out to get us. There's no conspiracy here. But governments have never been known to take scientific advise without diluting it with politics. The UK government has previously fired scientists like David Nutt for giving scientific advise that deviated from government policy. Many others resigned for the same or similar reasons (e.g. Sir Simon Fraser Campbell). The government's own published principles of scientific advise amount to saying as much:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...principles-of-scientific-advice-to-government
- government and its scientific advisers should not act to undermine mutual trust
Yeah that makes sense. I hadn't clocked that the flu figure was based on advanced estimates rather than exact confirmations . Prepare for the worst and hope for the best I'd say. Plan as if its going to be 8-10x as deadly at least and hope it comes out lower.
I've actually said the exact opposite, a handful of times.
Each country must follow the scientific advice for their country, I'm saying that if the Sweden and the UK respond differently, because they are different countries to Italy and China and their scientific models advise that; then they should be allowed to do so without the hatred being thrown at the likes of the UK government currently.
You're the one assuming that your actions don't have potential consequences for others. Parts of your post were daft, you can't really complain if people laugh about them.
You won't get an infraction for calling me amazing, so don't worry about doing it.
Fair enough. I agree it was badly written and I’ve apologised for that. I’ve just eaten and had a brew I’ll laugh at that one and give you the benefit
Of course it makes mathematical sense. If the virus is everywhere, as expected, you let the model reach a critical number before shutting down your essential services and possibly taking away lots of staff from the NHS and other essentials because they have to take care of their children for months.
Whilst the NHS can cope, you allow it to cope.
Unless people think we can completely nip this in the bud now. Fair enough, but I think that's extremely naive.
That's false. Someone like @Arruda and @Pogue Mahone can confirm but CFR(case fatality rate) is strictly defined as the fatality/ number of diagnosed cases.
I hope their model is true. I don't see how it can be. The number of real infected cases seems to be 10-50 times higher. So, NHS is already overwhelmed, just that it will take a week or two to realize it, when those recently infected are gonna need help. The number of cases is doubling every 3 days. Start the lockdown in a week and that number increases by 4. The UK has 1372 official cases now, if we assume a conservative 10x hidden cases (recently infected but don't know it yet), then that number of 13720. In a week it is gonna be circa 55k (with the majority of them showing symptoms in 2-3 weeks from now). Don't do the lockdown for another week after that and the number jumps to 200k.
It doesn't matter if NHS is doing well today. Even with draconian measures set today, the NHS is gonna be overwhelmed in 3-4 weeks from now.
And let me not even start in the US who are doing an even worse job than the UK. The best bet is to either get sick now or to win the lottery of not getting sick at all (or being with mild symptoms). If I will need a ventilator one month from now, I will die, simple as that. The vast majority of those who will need a ventilator one month from now are gonna die, sad as it is. With immediate draconian measures. Without them, it gets worse.
It’s a ridiculous question which I answered without having to insult or question someone else’s choices despite not knowing them. But thanks