SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Classical Mechanic said:
Regarding testing, if it’s the method that is most effective why are so few countries doing it in anywhere near the South Korean level, is it simply a lack of resources?
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That’s what I’m thinking. Korea and China have done well sure China wasn’t even in the top 20 for new cases today and Korea are maintaining/declining
 
fergieisold said:
Pub packed annoyingly! Hope nobody has it . There’s a lot of media hype though. Can’t find anyone who knows anyone with it.
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I went into Cardiff yesterday for a meal and it was incredible how busy it was.

Unfortunately, as Brits it's in our nature in the event of a crisis to just head to the pub.
 
When they're closing hash bars and sex clubs until at least April 6th like they're doing over here, you know shite is about to get serious...
 
Camilo said:
In a month we'll be bored with this news. It'll be royal babies soon enough. If you didn't read the news you'd never even know.
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In a month, you’re going to have thousands of daily fatalities. And you’ll realize you are an idiot for not being able to do basic math.
 
While I am not privy to the inner workings of the UK's plan, it seems to me that there are so many holes in the arguments of people defending it in this thread:

We are saving the lockdown for when we need it most
Currently, without drastic measures, the virus is spreading exponentially. Each day that you leave people interacting with each other, you are adding thousands of cases down the line in a couple of weeks, with potentially thousands of those needing hospital care. Surely it makes sense to limit the number of cases as early as physically possible, to allow for proper treatment of those in bad shape, while also having some form of capacity to treat the growing(much slower) number of new cases, which are an inevitability? Also, if the over 70s, who you claim would end up looking after the kids in a lockdown, are locked down themselves, who will be looking after the kids?

What is the point of going into lockdown when the virus has already spread far wider than the health service can handle? How will the country cope with that level of sickness, even from a mild cases perspective, where people will have to stop working and quarantine no matter the sector?

If we close everything down, who is going to look after children etc.
Some of the stats being thrown around regarding the amount of health care workers etc. that would literally have to stop working to look after their children seem wildly exaggerated. Other countries are having to deal with this scenario now, are they failing? It's a one in a life time situation, solutions will be found to these sorts of non-essential questions. The amount of companies allowing people to work from home, closing down for a number of weeks in the case of full blown lockdown will mitigate this issue considerably.

Once these other countries stop the strict isolation measures, it's back to square one
This is just such a ridiculous argument, do you think all of these countries are just going to announce that people should resume licking each other's faces 9AM Monday morning after the lockdown? Clearly, governments and businesses will be equipped with more knowledge, and better plans to cope with community spread after this period of lockdown, more will be known about the virus, and in general, people will be better equipped to deal with measures to mitigate the spread after experiencing something like this. This will lead to a lower rate of spread than before the lockdown, where half the people weren't even taking the issue seriously, and companies etc. were still scrambling to understand what was going on, and what the could do.

Some answers from those backing the UK's plan would be greatly appreciated.
 
Woodzy said:
I went into Cardiff yesterday for a meal and it was incredible how busy it was.

Unfortunately, as Brits it's in our nature in the event of a crisis to just head to the pub.
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Same in Ireland last night. All dancing.

Pubs shutting down now, but its probably too late.

Restaurants and coffee shops will probably follow suit.
 
Out of curiosity, and also aimed at UK residents. What are you doing with your children tomorrow? I am extremely anxious about sending them in. Haven't heard a dime from their school and no one seems to be able to give me any clear advice on the matter.
 
@Wal2Fra access to supermarkets is now limited to 100 people at a time in Hérault.
 
Drawfull said:
fecking hell. When do we expect to see the effect of the lock down?
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2 weeks after the lockdown. So at earliest, end of next week. Assuming that it has worked on the first place (China did more than a lockdown and wash your hands strategy).

And by that, I mean the number of deaths will stop increasing. It will still be on the hundreds daily for a long time to go.
 
Revan said:
Why are people getting surprised. It is a fecking exponential function, it is supposed to work this way. In less than a week it is gonna be thousands daily deaths.
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Preach
 
The numbers in Iran are pretty shocking. Can anybody tell me why they've been affected so quickly and is it just older people that are making up the numbers? I know Italy has an ageing population but i'm wondering if that's the same for Iran.
 
Revan said:
Why are people getting surprised. It is a fecking exponential function, it is supposed to work this way. In less than a week it is gonna be thousands daily deaths.
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yeah I really fail to understand people’s brains sometimes.
 
Apparently 4 in critical care in the CUH, all young with no underlying conditions. I hope those out pubbing/clubbing are looking forward to it
 
432JuanMata said:
Italy are at 8% deaths wow. I know they have the oldest population in Europe but that is insanely high
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Overwhelmed medical system. This is why ‘lol it is just 1% mortality’ brigade are stupid. 1% is a fecking disaster if 70% get infected, but even worse, 1% is only with a medic near you. With an overwhelmed medical system, it is gonna be much more (easily, 4%, probably as big as 10%). Essentially, everyone who needs a ventilator will die.
 
Revan said:
2 weeks after the lockdown. So at earliest, end of next week. Assuming that it has worked on the first place (China did more than a lockdown and wash your hands strategy).

And by that, I mean the number of deaths will stop increasing. It will still be on the hundreds daily for a long time to go.
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Thanks, I went to google after my post in any case. I think there will be a good effect. The Washington Post corona simulator, whilst not reassuring (that'd be the wrong word), does show how the measures implemented are intended to work.
 
TrustInOle said:
Out of curiosity, and also aimed at UK residents. What are you doing with your children tomorrow? I am extremely anxious about sending them in. Haven't heard a dime from their school and no one seems to be able to give me any clear advice on the matter.
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I'm in the same boat, very anxious about sending them in, under current guidelines I think we legally have to send them in unless they are unwell themselves.
 
TrustInOle said:
Out of curiosity, and also aimed at UK residents. What are you doing with your children tomorrow? I am extremely anxious about sending them in. Haven't heard a dime from their school and no one seems to be able to give me any clear advice on the matter.
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Im head of PE at a very large primary school and myself, and my Pe team who are all self employed, plus the 40-50 staff and 800 + children will be in as normal tomorrow and for the foreseeable future. I’ve just actually had a roast and few drinks in a local pubs alongside a lot of the parents. Luckily we live and work in a very likeminded area, not mass panic. People doing as they’re told and getting on with it whilst getting on with life too.
 
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Pexbo said:
The UK's arc is worrying there. It's difficult to see because of how cramped it is around that point but it looks like most countries the arc flips from exponential to logarithmic by now whereas the UK is still exponential.
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Whilst a reasonable observation, we’d need more data points to confirm.

I just can’t see though how any country in Western Europe can possibly be doing the volumes of testing required to accurately survey the growth in cases. I can see how they can do sampling to get high confidence ranges, but this volume of testing requires so much manpower. We’re not set up for that like East Asian countries perhaps are. We were doing more tests than any other Western Europe country outside of Italy and even they were not considered to be doing enough.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/
 
Conor said:
While I am not privy to the inner workings of the UK's plan, it seems to me that there are so many holes in the arguments of people defending it in this thread:

We are saving the lockdown for when we need it most
Currently, without drastic measures, the virus is spreading exponentially. Each day that you leave people interacting with each other, you are adding thousands of cases down the line in a couple of weeks, with potentially thousands of those needing hospital care. Surely it makes sense to limit the number of cases as early as physically possible, to allow for proper treatment of those in bad shape, while also having some form of capacity to treat the growing(much slower) number of new cases, which are an inevitability? Also, if the over 70s, who you claim would end up looking after the kids in a lockdown, are locked down themselves, who will be looking after the kids?

What is the point of going into lockdown when the virus has already spread far wider than the health service can handle? How will the country cope with that level of sickness, even from a mild cases perspective, where people will have to stop working and quarantine no matter the sector?

If we close everything down, who is going to look after children etc.
Some of the stats being thrown around regarding the amount of health care workers etc. that would literally have to stop working to look after their children seem wildly exaggerated. Other countries are having to deal with this scenario now, are they failing? It's a one in a life time situation, solutions will be found to these sorts of non-essential questions. The amount of companies allowing people to work from home, closing down for a number of weeks in the case of full blown lockdown will mitigate this issue considerably.

Once these other countries stop the strict isolation measures, it's back to square one
This is just such a ridiculous argument, do you think all of these countries are just going to announce that people should resume licking each other's faces 9AM Monday morning after the lockdown? Clearly, governments and businesses will be equipped with more knowledge, and better plans to cope with community spread after this period of lockdown, more will be known about the virus, and in general, people will be better equipped to deal with measures to mitigate the spread after experiencing something like this. This will lead to a lower rate of spread than before the lockdown, where half the people weren't even taking the issue seriously, and companies etc. were still scrambling to understand what was going on, and what the could do.

Some answers from those backing the UK's plan would be greatly appreciated.
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It is sheer insanity. The equivalent of Nazi Germany are gonna win anyway, let’s not fight cause we’ll destroy the economy doing so.
 
Revan said:
Why are people getting surprised. It is a fecking exponential function, it is supposed to work this way. In less than a week it is gonna be thousands daily deaths.
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I'm not surprised, I understand exponentials, it's just that even with that in mind the death rate in Italy is now about 8% which is crazy, shows the strain the medical sector is under
 
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