So there's even a coronavirus case in French Polynesia.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Feck. I hope his wife doesn't get it otherwise it'll be 100% infection rate.
They have a good idea that it is probably around 1% - in thexrangecof 0.5-1.5% most likely. 5 to 15% higher than the flu.
Saw this....
I posted this before using 70%:
Herd immunity develops at around 70% coverage.
Let's run some numbers:
UK pop: 67 million
70% infected, so 47 million people
2.35 million needing ICU care (5%)
Total ICU beds in UK: 4000
Typical ICU bed occupancy rate: 75%
Typical available ICU beds: 1000
Typical duration in ICU for Covid: 2 weeks
Time required to get through Covid patients without kicking out normal ICU patients: 4700 weeks, or 90 years.
The 'herd immunity' strategy is basically the 'no ICU' strategy.
Let's not even talk about how coronaviruses typically don't result in long-term immunity.
I posted this before using 70%:
Herd immunity develops at around 70% coverage.
Let's run some numbers:
UK pop: 67 million
70% infected, so 47 million people
2.35 million needing ICU care (5%)
Total ICU beds in UK: 4000
Typical ICU bed occupancy rate: 75%
Typical available ICU beds: 1000
Typical duration in ICU for Covid: 2 weeks
Time required to get through Covid patients without kicking out normal ICU patients: 4700 weeks, or 90 years.
The 'herd immunity' strategy is basically the 'no ICU' strategy.
Let's not even talk about how coronaviruses typically don't result in long-term immunity.
From what I've read for people under 40 is 0.2%, for 40-49 is 0.4%. It reaches over 1% for people who are over 60.
I think this doesn't account the medical system being overwhelmed, in which case it will likely be higher.
The Whole Foods company is only giving its staff unpaid leave. To be fair, it must be struggling for money since they're owned by... *checks notes* ... Jeff Bezos.
Those aren't the options.
Clearly. UK's strategy is survival of the fittest.
Forced to get infected or forced to stay inside? Hmm... really isn't a hard choice.
So everyone can just fit onto the isle of man when all is said and done.
No. 4 out of 5 people will have manageable symptoms. It won’t progress to something that the lungs and CNS can’t handle.
I was just doing some basic maths by looking at age demographics and the current death percentages.
There are 3,281,955 people aged 80+ in the UK. If you go by the 70% infected rate, that means 2,297,369 will be infected. With a 14.8% death rate you get a figure of 340,011 dead. That's just the 80+ age group, even if you half the mortality rate you still get 170,005 dead. This is avoiding the scenario where the sheer scale of people requiring hospital treatment results in higher fatalities.
I stopped doing the maths once I reached my Mums age demographic because it felt a bit terrifying frankly. I didn't even bother checking Italys current age to death ratio, I used the current UK one but given the nations strategy is to say "feck it" then we should be looking at worst case scenario figures right now.
Hence why it’s ‘one from the films/books‘? It’s also not NOT the options is it
Herd immunity is far harder to achieve with a virus than a bacteria as viruses hide within cells. When it does work at least to some degree it puts evolutionary pressure on the virus often resulting in a rapid evolution of novel new strains that we are far less immune to.
This is a shit plan.
If you want herd immunity develop a vaccine.
France 3661 79 deaths
Spain 5232 133 deaths.
Can you tell us what Germany is doing to contain it? Not read of anything significant, both doing localized school closures, both eventually called the football off having just played with full crowds, Leipzig Spurs for example.. With Merkel saying 70% of German could be infected, that would be a lot of deaths as well and she's advised not to close the borders. Maybe you could include Germany in your uncontrolled spread jibe?
Edit: Just reading most schools closing now?
Spain 5232 133 deaths.
Seems a bit exaggerated to me, considering the numbers we got so far.
Currently ~5000 dead worldwide, including ~3000 from China. Shutdowns and limitation of social interactions should limit the spread pretty well. Realistically speaking we are looking at 10k - 20k deaths max in Europe. (UK not included because uncontrolled spread might dwarf the numbers massively.)
At least that's what I hope for.
Edit: Maybe I just don't want to envision anything worse.
Can you tell us what Germany is doing to contain it? Not read of anything significant, both doing localized school closures, both eventually called the football off having just played with full crowds, Leipzig Spurs for example.. With Merkel saying 70% of German could be infected, that would be a lot of deaths as well and she's advised not to close the borders. Maybe you could include Germany in your uncontrolled spread jibe?
Edit: Just reading most schools closing now?
Last edited:
It’s really irritating me that the approach to control this thing is seemingly being, at the very least, influenced by politics.
No doubt Trump is looking for a way to profit from this for the elections.
How do people still not understand the concept of exponential growth?
Not for this thread then.
Why are some people here trying to make this a competition with the UK as to who is dealing with things the best and then having a dig all the time. Petty wankers.
More fake news.....then again I suppose Germany is in La La land for you to exclude it from countries that have refused to shut up shop. And if you care to research a wee bit more you will find other countries also deciding not to shut up shop at this stage.
My new prevision about Italy analyzing the latest data and the trend, I created this on excel
You should include some detail when posting something like that.
Assumptions. Reasoning etc.
There's no condoms at Fabregas' house.
Meanwhile the scouse are blaming woke millenial snowflakes for this too
Some of the handling of this virus has been nothing short of horrendous. Inept. When we look back on this, we will see that this could have been contained if we took this thing seriously from the get go and worked together.
There's no condoms at Fabregas' house.
Meanwhile the scouse are blaming woke millenial snowflakes for this too
What? That doesn't even make fecking sense! What an idiot.
I don't know. People do it all the the time and in this case I don't really get it, we should help each others, make sure that the most vulnerable are safe and we can have a nasty competition when the Euros finally come around. Hopefully England miserably fail and lose all its games.
I'm not hearing much about countries like Russia or India which are obviously massively populated. How are they holding up?
I don't get it either. Especially when this is a Manchester United forum - an English football club.
You're spot on though. We should be trying to help each other and offer reassurance, support and advice.
Because..
What is exponential growth?
To calculate exponential growth, use the formula y(t) = a__ekt, where a is the value at the start, k is the rate of growth or decay, t is time and y(t) is the population's value at time t.
Russia hasn't been affected badly at all from what I hear from my relatives. Also, Russia is huge but otherwise the population is only 140 million or so. They've got quite strict rules in place if one doesn't isolate -- up to 5 years in prison -- and you can bet your bottom dollar those sentences will be handed down. Also, I absolutely hear nothing from VK (russian social media platform akin to Facebook) which to my knowledge isn't as censored as some would have you believe. I see plenty of articles criticising the central government and lots of comments so I don't expect this to be censored either. So I think thankfully Russia are coping well at the minute. I've no idea about India though.
As they say: in Russia, you infect the coronavirus.
It's weird, and I don't get it at all.
What 'United is an English club' has anything to do with 'UK government fecking things up by doing nothing'?
If you read the massive one sentence post properly I didn’t say we’re the only country not to take this step.
Last edited:
I think the best thing they did was close the borders and take things seriously as early as Jan, when the news about the virus first came to surface.
Hahh, you believe that really? My lord you’re naive.
I really hope some of the Chinese customs change after this is all done. fecking eating anything and everything. That video of some man feasting on live baby mice was absolutely fecking disgusting.