Every time I look into the Italian situation it looks worse and worse. And honestly I think the real situation in Iran is much worse than the official numbers. And China? Who knows. This looks a horror movie.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Nice. Apparently 1.something millions of test kits within next week, and 5 million kits within next month.
If the China numbers are real then they must have made great progress in containing this, lets hope it's real.
Frees up money for FEMA and federal aid to states/local government. But then again, FEMA was horrible during Hurricane Katrina...so yeah.
Yes, but progress that would be harder in other countries. Locking down entire communities by force!
No mention at all about wether uninsured people will be charged for tests and treatment.
Trump just denied knowledge of having disbanded the pandemic response team! https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/
50 billion doesn't sound like very much compared to the 1.5 TRILLION the fed is lining the pockets of the banks with.
You want my opinion? I only trust in South Korea and Italy data.
Not everywhere unfortunately
Different strokes for different folks.
The Asian countries people's mentality is much more in line with following rules that benefit their society as a whole. I remember the orderly fashion in which Japan thandled the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown. And it was much more immediate and devastating .
That's a way to put it.
So how many infections/deaths are we looking at in Europe over the next few months do we think?
Maybe that's the best way to go about it for everyone to take it seriously.
Tens/hundreds of thousands probably. If you believe the doom spreaders here probably half a billion.
They will mostly leave food at your door so there will be no contact.
The uniform is lovely, I have to say.
Well the UK's strategy seems to be let the virus infect 60% of the population which is around 40m...
Depends. If all of europe goes italy's way(overwhelmed healthcare system), probably close to a million
Otherwise might be kept in the high tens of thousands/low hundreds thousands
And if you go completely foolish like the UK, in the 10s of millions.
Last edited by a moderator:
In terms of actual infections it's difficult to tell because a large amount of the population is already infected but asymptomatic and therefore will never get tested. Some will have minor symptoms and will also never be tested or visit the doctor.
Depends if those at risk of getting anything serious get it. 60% of healthy people (not sure if that’s a high number in this country)!
Well if we go with a modest 1% fatality rate that is 400,000 dead.
No one knows the mortality rate for the healthy and fit though do they? That’s the problem.
Which if it happened would be the same as the entire population of Manchester being killed.
Personally I hope the Government changes its stance in the next few days because I feel their strategy is absurd and will result in far more fatalities with the objective being trying to recover the Economy as fast as possible and to hell with the casualities along the way. This will lead to more than deaths frankly, our NHS won't be able to cope with the demand that our Government is going to put on it with it's needless strategy.
Although I think it might be too late anyway, we should have followed the same procedures as Singapore, but we have left it far, far too late for that now. The damage has been done.
Decent quick article from the Graun on the difficulties of projecting a death rate on this - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...avirus-in-the-uk-a-closer-look-at-the-numbers
There's basically just not enough data yet, and too many variables.
I'm not sure its all that different in the scheme of things. "They have the oldest population in Europe" yes they do, by a fraction.
Seems a bit exaggerated to me, considering the numbers we got so far.
Currently ~5000 dead worldwide, including ~3000 from China. Shutdowns and limitation of social interactions should limit the spread pretty well. Realistically speaking we are looking at 10k - 20k deaths max in Europe. (UK not included because uncontrolled spread might dwarf the numbers massively.)
At least that's what I hope for.
Edit: Maybe I just don't want to envision anything worse.
The irony of the Brexit Government being of the only ones in Europe refusing to close up shop.
Yeah, but the $1.5tn is in loans that they have to pay back, not just giving them the money.
Or not.
Genuine question. One from the films and books. You’re in charge and you’ve got the choice of the following:
1) 500,000 of your most vulnerable and elderly will die quickly if you don’t act to close everything (borders, schools, travel, leisure) but you’ll protect the long term future of the country and minimise future deaths.
2) You protect everyone early on and put in huge restrictions to daily life. The rate of infection goes down slowly and deaths plateau. But the virus continues for 5-10 years with only hope of a virus to sort it out. Death rate in the tens of millions
1) 500,000 of your most vulnerable and elderly will die quickly if you don’t act to close everything (borders, schools, travel, leisure) but you’ll protect the long term future of the country and minimise future deaths.
2) You protect everyone early on and put in huge restrictions to daily life. The rate of infection goes down slowly and deaths plateau. But the virus continues for 5-10 years with only hope of a virus to sort it out. Death rate in the tens of millions
Well time will tell on that front won't it. Neither you nor i know for sure.
700m people in Europe. If the new sensible restrictions many countries are doing keep the rate of infections to 10% (the current projections vary from 20-60% to 50-70%) with a mortality rate of only 1% (that is doing as good as Korea, Italy is getting 7% right now), put the number to 700k people. Bear in mind, this is probably better than the best-case scenario.
On the other hand, UK's sensible strategy of let's get everyone infected at the same time: 66.5million, 70% get infected, fatality rate of 4% (the system gets overwhelmed so fatalities go up), puts the number of dead people to 2 million.
Probably it is gonna be somewhere in between, so maybe 10m in Europe. Hopefully, we do much better, China and South Korea are showing that it is possible to contain the virus (at least temporarily), maybe the summer makes things better, maybe we soon find anti-virals that can fight it. In that case, it would probably be just in tens of thousands.
I think it is more likely to be in tens of millions (worldwide).
1st choice.
Unfortunately, it is worse than that though. People who spread it are the young ones (who die in much lower rates), while the most vulnerable are the elderly who are not doing much wrong.
I've not personally needed to do anything to change my behaviour. Mostly because I've always done everything on that list.
I'm OCD about hygiene (I mean that in a literal sense); of course I avoid people with the flu; I live centrally so walk everywhere in town, know all the quiet streets and don't need to travel.
Not surprised 'encourage home working' is leading the poll
Though, how many people have jobs that can be done from home? My mums a carer, maybe she should bring the elderly home with her.
Fake news. Wilson lives on his own island so safe from everything apart from stingrays.I knew I recognised that picture of Hanks with Wilson.
Here's the original - somebody threw him a Wilson ball at an NFL game:
