SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

My new prevision about Italy analyzing the latest data and the trend, I created this on excel

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It's interesting in Italy how the guidance has to evolve based on daily practicalities the authorities hadn't considered - today I read that the official line is that you can take your dog out to do its business, but only one person should go out with the dog. Not everyone has a garden, of course.

We're also being advised that even in very small places like the one we live in, police might just ask you what you're doing if you're walking around or sitting on a bench. Of course, the advantage of being in a small place is that I'm on nodding terms with the senior Carabinieri officer. Nice chap.
 
NinjaFletch said:
So, predictably, my university has just cancelled all face to face teaching with feck all consideration of how they're going to do that. All staff are expected to make materials available for students to learn online starting Monday and the advice for how to do that will be sent round on, err, Monday.

It's the right decision, but the incredibly botched implementation just underlines the questions I was asking yesterday about what the feck they'd been doing.
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Ffs we had our plans in place for remote learning and giving everyone a Chromebook before the first case here and we're only a fecking college.
 
Penna said:
It's interesting in Italy how the guidance has to evolve based on daily practicalities the authorities hadn't considered - today I read that the official line is that you can take your dog out to do its business, but only one person should go out with the dog. Not everyone has a garden, of course.

We're also being advised that even in very small places like the one we live in, police might just ask you what you're doing if you're walking around or sitting on a bench. Of course, the advantage of being in a small place is that I'm on nodding terms with the senior Carabinieri officer. Nice chap.
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So anybody with several dogs could accidentally go for a very long walk?
 
Polish PM just announced the following measures:

- borders set to close for at least 10 days
- international flights suspended from 00:01 Sunday
- shopping malls restricted to groceries, pharmacies & health/beauty
- bars, cafes, clubs, restaurants to close for miminum of 14 days, only takeaway allowed
- public events restricted to max 50 people
 
Penna said:
It's interesting in Italy how the guidance has to evolve based on daily practicalities the authorities hadn't considered - today I read that the official line is that you can take your dog out to do its business, but only one person should go out with the dog. Not everyone has a garden, of course.

We're also being advised that even in very small places like the one we live in, police might just ask you what you're doing if you're walking around or sitting on a bench. Of course, the advantage of being in a small place is that I'm on nodding terms with the senior Carabinieri officer. Nice chap.
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That sounds very mafia-ish for some reason
 
Italy's ISS: average age of fatalities is 80,3, only 2 deaths without pre-existing conditions, 10% of infected require intensive care
 
Redlambs said:
So you think mixed messages and no guidance is fine? You don't think a child having all the symptoms of the virus is worth at least phoning 111 and checking either? I mean, we aren't talking about a common cold here, he has the cough, the shivers, the high temperature, shortness of breath...so if you are suggesting people don't bother to call the line for that, what do they call it for?

And do you even have kids to be asking about the attendance issue? Because of you do and decide to just take them out of school, tell me how that goes for you.

The school have clearly stated that despite the guidelines they can't guarantee it will go down as authorised absence. It's further proof that leadership is completely lacking. Whether I personally keep them off or not is irrelevant to the bigger picture of what others will or won't do, because I can tell you for a fact more people will be sending the kids in than not in this circumstance for a lot of reasons. I know this because they already are.
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If everyone with symptoms now calls the line, you will block the line for the most who really need it. The people on the other end can only help with one person at once and the threshold for calling that line has risen.

I’m not near your child, but if you think he has complications or you are seriously worried, you should seek further help. The guidance says you should use the 111 coronavirus service if:
• you feel you cannot cope with your symptoms at home
• your condition gets worse
• your symptoms do not get better after 7 days

General guidance for flu is clear though: it is self management for 7 days. Unless your child needs medical intervention, you will just be told to self isolate them for 7 days, and then possibly yourself too, if you become symptomatic too or the guidance changes further. Even the best doctors in the world will just give you understanding and painkillers of choice.

The overwhelming majority of children who get this will be a bit ill, but will be fine. It’s the elderly who are at risk here.

I think you are worrying too much about authorised absence. If you’re following the published guidelines, you should be confident you are doing the right thing. The online guidance from the NHS is of far greater authority than the admin person at your child’s school. There will be millions of kids off sick soon following the guidelines. I wouldn’t worry about that.
 
Is it fair to say that for every case we know about there is probably 10 more? It is certainly what was insinuated in the PM's press conference yesterday, and the mortality rate in Italy would surely point to something like this.
 
TMDaines said:
If everyone with symptoms now calls the line, you will block the line for the most who really need it. The people on the other end can only help with one person at once and the threshold for calling that line has risen.

I’m not near your child, but if you think he has complications or you are seriously worried, you should seek further help. The guidance says you should use the 111 coronavirus service if:
• you feel you cannot cope with your symptoms at home
• your condition gets worse
• your symptoms do not get better after 7 days

General guidance for flu is clear though: it is self management for 7 days. Unless your child needs medical intervention, you will just be told to self isolate them for 7 days, and then possibly yourself too, if you become symptomatic too or the guidance changes further. Even the best doctors in the world will just give you understanding and painkillers of choice.

The overwhelming majority of children who get this will be a bit ill, but will be fine. It’s the elderly who are at risk here.

I think you are worrying too much about authorised absence. If you’re following the published guidelines, you should be confident you are doing the right thing. The online guidance from the NHS is of far greater authority than the admin person at your child’s school. There will be millions of kids off sick soon following the guidelines. I wouldn’t worry about that.
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Yes mate, I do understand all of that. However the point isn't about me, it's about much more vulnerable parents.

If neither the helpline or schools can reiterate what you've just said, surely you can see the problem I brought up?

My boy is doing fine, I'm ill now but I'm not panicked or worried about it. I don't trust others to be as sensible though.
 
11101 said:
So you didn't have it then?

A friend is a doctor in Milan and is having to work from quarantine because the hospital can't afford to have them at home, they need the manpower.

What do you think of the arthritis drug they have been talking about?
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Nope, I had a mild flu but they can't take any chances with medical students because we're not insured so they put me in quarantine. I wrote to my infectious diseases professor (he's the doctor in charge of all the cases being brought to Pavia) to ask him to let me back in to help them out, just waiting to hear back from him. Technically, I should be allowed back in now since I officially graduated as a doctor yesterday.
 
BusbyMalone said:
So is Italy particularly unfortunate in this in terms of the severity of it, or is this something that is likely to be replicated in the UK?
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Its the same virus there as it is here, similar medical facilities. I'm unaware of any reason we can't expect to be in the same situation in the near future. They got it first, not worse.
 
Hugh Jass said:
In Italy are the shops still open?
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Yes, but they only let in a certain number of people at a time, and everyone has to disinfect themselves with the disinfectant provided and wear gloves before they enter. People form orderly queues outside shops while waiting their turn.
 
Rhyme Animal said:
@TMDaines @Fiskey etc

What is he not getting about the Government's 'definitely not glorified Eugenics' plan and the precious Economy?
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I don’t think you really understand what people mean by the economy. The ramifications of this are going to far outstrip the banking crisis in terms of leaving people without homes, employment and businesses.
 
Hanks said:
Polish PM just announced the following measures:

- borders set to close for at least 10 days
- international flights suspended from 00:01 Sunday
- shopping malls restricted to groceries, pharmacies & health/beauty
- bars, cafes, clubs, restaurants to close for miminum of 14 days, only takeaway allowed
- public events restricted to max 50 people
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Polish girls have gotta look their best!
 
C'est Moi Cantona said:
Is it fair to say that for every case we know about there is probably 10 more? It is certainly what was insinuated in the PM's press conference yesterday, and the mortality rate in Italy would surely point to something like this.
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You can say the same about flu, colds etc. But relative to them, the mortality rate is orders of magnitude higher as is the number of people who need medical attention.
 
van der star said:
Yes, but they only let in a certain number of people at a time, and everyone has to disinfect themselves with the disinfectant provided and wear gloves before they enter. People form orderly queues outside shops while waiting their turn.
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Are people queing up from early in the morning to get in?
 
Simbo said:
Its the same virus there as it is here, similar medical facilities. I'm unaware of any reason we can't expect to be in the same situation in the near future. They got it first, not worse.
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Well as others have said, you have to take into account the cultural norms and the fact that Italy is a very old city in terms of its population. Lots of old people who are clearly the most vulnerable.
 
Skills said:
You can say the same about flu, colds etc. But relative to them, the mortality rate is orders of magnitude higher as is the number of people who need medical attention.
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I'm not doubting that, I've just seen figures of 7 % mortality rate in Italy, but that is only based on confirmed cases, so we can surely times the infected numbers by 8-10 at least, and bringing this down considerably.

I'm not doubting the 'magnitude' is higher, I'm just trying to make sense of it all, as I am with the UK line of 'probably 5,000 - 10,000 infected, yet so far 11 deaths. putting it far lower than the 1 % we keep hearing so far.
 
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