SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

An intriguing theory may help explain why the flu and Covid-19 never gripped the nation simultaneously — the so-called twindemic that many public health experts had feared.

The idea is that it wasn’t just masks, social distancing or other pandemic restrictions that caused flu and other respiratory viruses to fade while the coronavirus reigned, and to resurge as it receded.

Rather, exposure to one respiratory virus may put the body’s immune defenses on high alert, barring other intruders from gaining entry into the airways. This biological phenomenon, called viral interference, may cap the amount of respiratory virus circulating in a region at any given time.

“My gut feeling, and my feeling based on our recent research, is that viral interference is real,” said Dr. Ellen Foxman, an immunologist at the Yale School of Medicine. “I don’t think we’re going to see the flu and the coronavirus peak at the same time.”

…

Only 0.2 percent of samples tested positive for influenza from September to May, compared with about 30 percent in recent seasons, and hospitalizations for flu were the lowest on record since the agency began collecting this data in 2005.

Many experts attributed the flu-free season to masks, social distancing and restricted movement, especially of young children and older adults, both of whom are at the highest risk for severe flu. Flu numbers did tick upward a year later, in the 2021-2022 season, when many states had dispensed with restrictions, but the figures were still lower than the prepandemic average.

So far this year, the nation has recorded about five million cases, two million medical visits, and fewer than 65,000 hospitalizations and 5,800 deaths related to the flu.

….

Recent studies have shown that co-infections of flu and the coronavirus are rare, and those with an active influenza infection were nearly 60 percent less likely to test positive for the coronavirus, he noted.

“Now we see a rise in flu activity in Europe and North America, and it will be interesting to see if it leads to a decrease in SARS-COV-2 circulation in the next few weeks,” he said.
Advances in technology over the past decade have made it feasible to show the biological basis of this interference. Dr. Foxman’s team used a model of human airway tissue to show that rhinovirus infection stimulates interferons that can then fend off the coronavirus.

“The protection is transient for a certain period of time while you have that interferon response triggered by rhinovirus,” said Pablo Murcia, a virologist at the MRC Center for Virus Research at the University of Glasgow, whose team found similar results.

But Dr. Murcia also discovered a kink in the viral interference theory: A bout with the coronavirus did not seem to prevent infection with other viruses. That may have something to do with how adept the coronavirus is at evading the immune system’s initial defenses, he said.

“Compared to influenza, it tends to activate these antiviral interferons less,” Dr. de Silva said of the coronavirus. That finding suggests that in a given population, it may matter which virus appears first.

Dr. de Silva and his colleagues have gathered additional data from Gambia — which had no pandemic-related restrictions that might have affected the viral patterns they were observing — indicating that rhinovirus, influenza and the coronavirus all peaked at different times between April 2020 and June 2021.

That data has “made me a bit more convinced that interference could play a role,” he said.
Click to expand...

Thought this was particularly interesting…
Last year, one team of researchers set out to study the role of an existing immune response in fending off the flu virus. Because it would be unethical to deliberately infect children with the flu, they gave children in Gambia a vaccine with a weakened strain of the virus.

Infection with viruses sets off a complex cascade of immune responses, but the very first defense comes from a set of nonspecific defenders called interferons. Children who already had high levels of interferon ended up with much less flu virus in their bodies than those with lower levels of interferon, the team found.

The findings suggested that previous viral infections primed the children’s immune systems to fight the flu virus. “Most of the viruses that we saw in these kids before giving the vaccine were rhinoviruses,” said Dr. Thushan de Silva, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Sheffield in England, who led the study.

This dynamic may partly explain why children, who tend to have more respiratory infections than adults, seem less likely to become infected with the coronavirus. The flu may also prevent coronavirus infections in adults, said Dr. Guy Boivin, a virologist and infectious disease specialist at Laval University in Canada.
Click to expand...
 
Wibble said:
Not saying it doesn't help but Australia and NZ virtually eliminated flu when there was no covid.
Click to expand...

Interesting. I don’t think the point was that covid prevents flu, just that the likelihood of covid and flu running riot simultaneously seems unlikely because of those factors.

But it could just be an anomaly of a flu year(s)! Presumably this applied when there were few preventative measures too - just masks? Otherwise if it happened with social distancing then I guess it wouldn’t tell us much!
 
China is attempting to stick to its zero covid policy, and some parts of Shanghai had just heard that its lockdown had been extended again.

However, it looks like the food supply chain is collapsing under the strain. Some background on why fresh food and takeaway food is central to the issue, and why there's desperation in some groups in the city.


Which might explain some footage showing what are being reported as scenes of supermarkets being looted in Shanghai. No idea on the source or authenticity/context of the video - it's all over Twitter - but certainly there's a lot of footage of empty fridges, individual protests etc around.


Restrictions in some parts of the city are now going to be lifted - but only if there are no positive tests in this round in that area. Whether that's a cover for the authorities backing down or an irrelevance for most people, I don't know.
 
Are China really thick or something? What are they trying to prove? Have they not seen what's literally happening in every other country in the world?

Or do they know something we don't? :nervous:
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I remember @hmchan saying that the poor vaccine uptake amongst the elderly in Hong Kong was in large part down to anti-American fuelled Pfizer vaccine scepticism. I wonder what’s behind the poor uptake in China?
Click to expand...
Sorry for the late reply. As far as I know, China hasn't put much effort in pushing the vaccination rate. They have been too confident in their so-called "dynamic zero" strategy to stop every outbreak. They also keep reassuring people that all outbreaks are controllable which, in my opinion, gives people a false sense of security. With the case number has kept staying low over the past year, people have no incentive to receive vaccination and when they need it, it's already too late.
 
More scraps of info coming from Shanghai. First, an unlikely looking stat about symptomatic v asymptomatic cases:


And next an even less likely looking stat about cases v serious illness.


China has stopped uploading viral sequences to the international registry, so we don't even know if we're talking about one of the Omicron family - though presumably we are.

Meanwhile, families are apparently complaining about the sudden death of elderly relatives, at a time when officially no one is dying of covid.
 
jojojo said:
China has stopped uploading viral sequences to the international registry
Click to expand...

That sounds irresponsible at best. What’s the official reason for not doing so?
 
jojojo said:
More scraps of info coming from Shanghai. First, an unlikely looking stat about symptomatic v asymptomatic cases:


And next an even less likely looking stat about cases v serious illness.


China has stopped uploading viral sequences to the international registry, so we don't even know if we're talking about one of the Omicron family - though presumably we are.

Meanwhile, families are apparently complaining about the sudden death of elderly relatives, at a time when officially no one is dying of covid.
Click to expand...


I don’t get it. What’s the upside to massaging the stats to make the illness seem less severe? Surely that just makes their zero covid mass lockdown approach look even more stupid?
 
2cents said:
That sounds irresponsible at best. What’s the official reason for not doing so?
Click to expand...
I doubt there's an official explanation, and I doubt China feels any need to give one. Countries choose what to share and when to do it. Some countries do a lot of sequencing, some do very little.

Some upload sequences as they get them, immediately and without prior analysis. Others do edited highlights showing changes identified by their research teams as significant. Obviously the most helpful ones do all those things - send lots, send them fast, and point out significant bits they've spotted (like SA did with Omicron).
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I don’t get it. What’s the upside to massaging the stats to make the illness seem less severe? Surely that just makes their zero covid mass lockdown approach look even more stupid?
Click to expand...
You'd think so, but I guess this comes down to a combination of what central government want broadcast and what local health officials dare say.

Big infection numbers to emphasise why whole cities need to be locked down hard and fast (not go rogue like HK, or lose grip on it like Shanghai). Small numbers of severe cases to "explain" how the infection could spread so far without warning.

Plus, the government could be preparing the country for a move from zero covid to "zero admitted covid deaths". Of course, that does nothing to encourage the elderly and the vulnerable to get vaccinated/boosted so it's not much of a strategy unless you control all information flow. Hmmm.
 
jojojo said:
You'd think so, but I guess this comes down to a combination of what central government want broadcast and what local health officials dare say.

Big infection numbers to emphasise why whole cities need to be locked down hard and fast (not go rogue like HK, or lose grip on it like Shanghai). Small numbers of severe cases to "explain" how the infection could spread so far without warning.

Plus, the government could be preparing the country for a move from zero covid to "zero admitted covid deaths". Of course, that does nothing to encourage the elderly and the vulnerable to get vaccinated/boosted so it's not much of a strategy unless you control all information flow. Hmmm.
Click to expand...

Ah. Ok. Gotcha.
 
jojojo said:
More scraps of info coming from Shanghai. First, an unlikely looking stat about symptomatic v asymptomatic cases:


And next an even less likely looking stat about cases v serious illness.


China has stopped uploading viral sequences to the international registry, so we don't even know if we're talking about one of the Omicron family - though presumably we are.

Meanwhile, families are apparently complaining about the sudden death of elderly relatives, at a time when officially no one is dying of covid.
Click to expand...

Only cases with abnormal CT are classified as "symptomatic". Many cases with mild fever and cough are not included.
 
So after managing to evade Covid for 2 years I have finally tested positive. I don’t really have any symptoms, but a bit of a scratchy throat the other day and a very, very occasional cough. I do do feel really tired, but what’s concerning me a little is that my Oximeter readings today range between 88% - 91%. Is this fairly normal with Covid?
 
Red Diva said:
So after managing to evade Covid for 2 years I have finally tested positive. I don’t really have any symptoms, but a bit of a scratchy throat the other day and a very, very occasional cough. I do do feel really tired, but what’s concerning me a little is that my Oximeter readings today range between 88% - 91%. Is this fairly normal with Covid?
Click to expand...
Those oximeter reading aren't great, but there is a lot of variation between individuals and devices. Do you know what you normally come in at on the gadget you're using?
 
Red Diva said:
So after managing to evade Covid for 2 years I have finally tested positive. I don’t really have any symptoms, but a bit of a scratchy throat the other day and a very, very occasional cough. I do do feel really tired, but what’s concerning me a little is that my Oximeter readings today range between 88% - 91%. Is this fairly normal with Covid?
Click to expand...

The NHS advice is if it drops to 92% or less call 999. At the very least I'd be ringing 111 if I was you. It could be an inaccurate oximeter but why take the chance. Hope you feel better soon.
 
jojojo said:
Those oximeter reading aren't great, but there is a lot of variation between individuals and devices. Do you know what you normally come in at on the gadget you're using?
Click to expand...

Thanks for responding. I’m usually at around 96%-97%.
I am over 65years old and have a couple of comorbidities my booster was 6months ago so probably fairly ineffectual now. It did go down to 81% but has been back up at 91% for a while. I’ll see how it is tomorrow. Thank you
 
Red Diva said:
Thanks for responding. I’m usually at around 96%-97%.
I am over 65years old and have a couple of comorbidities my booster was 6months ago so probably fairly ineffectual now. It did go down to 81% but has been back up at 91% for a while. I’ll see how it is tomorrow. Thank you
Click to expand...
If it's drifting back towards normal and you're not feeling breathless or light-hearted - you're hopefully already on the mend. Things like your hands being cold can upset the reading so you can get rogue results, but when it's repeatedly low like you're seeing, you need to be on your guard. That 81% that you got sounds scary, and 91% still isn't good.

Assuming you're in the UK - I'd check in with 111 for advice initially. They may advise a trip to A&E but some of them have access to appointments with local GP led clinics as well.
 


As I watch news updates on this, the people who are genuinely suffering at the moment are those with health issues not related to COVID and who cannot receive proper care at the moment. Besides, I just have a hard time understanding how Shanghai is currently running this low on food and medicines when that city is supposed to be the crown jewel of China's financial power. David Culver has to be the most unlucky person on Earth to be in Wuhan back then and in Shanghai now, and he says that Shanghai is definitely worse than Wuhan although this is not about COVID deaths.

Among stuff that shocked me, there were a few in that video. The man unable to admit his frail father (who later died)... that was really sad. The worker killing the pet Corgi because it belonged to a person under COVID quarantine... go feck yourself. As for the government quarantine centers, that's about as bad as you would see in very poor countries when it comes to poor sanitary standards. On a different reporting (can't find the video though), there was a heartbreaking moment where a mother was screaming to nearby apartments, asking neighbors if someone has medicine to treat her son's fever.

That decision-making from the top is as much of a failure as the way Putin has been conducting his war in Ukraine. Sorry for the slight off-topic, but the disregard for reality on the ground can only exacerbate problems.
 
My wife had covid last week - thought I’d managed to escape it but tested positive today. Feel so shit
 
I was amazed by how fast we got covid vaccines, but I admit I've been a bit disappointed by how slowly the testing technology has been going. I've been hoping to see a covid breathalyser or a covid (spit on it) litmus test for a couple of years. Looks like one has arrived:

 
jojojo said:
I was amazed by how fast we got covid vaccines, but I admit I've been a bit disappointed by how slowly the testing technology has been going. I've been hoping to see a covid breathalyser or a covid (spit on it) litmus test for a couple of years. Looks like one has arrived:

Click to expand...

I get where you are coming from but we have actually had a generational shift in molecular testing technology/process in the last 3 years. The wide adoption of isothermal PCR, the development of multiple POC devices, the push to decentralize testing, etc. are huge shifts.

I think the next 2 years are going to be marked by even more change. How much change is dependent on public (and healthcare institutions I guess) interest in POC devices.
 
I’d always be happy to do tests (if quick) ahead of seeing vulnerable people/going to large gatherings. I’m going to see my partners elderly grandmother for Easter today and even though Covid is “over” in the UK, I’ll still do one. it just makes sense. I feel like going back to our old normal and learning nothing from this experience would be a travesty.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
We spent two years playing the blame game & pushing the idea that passing on an upper respiratory virus wasn’t simply part of the natural World, but a personal fault that could kill others.
Hardly surprising that has lead to a shit load of lifelong guilt for many. :(
Click to expand...
Exactly this. The civil war this created with mask wearers vs non mask wearers etc. was ridiculous. No it wasn’t me not wearing a mask in Tesco in Manchester who killed Jane in London.
 
UnofficialDevil said:
I wonder if there is a new variant in Shanghai that explains what's happening over there. I mean, they didn't tell us the truth about Wuhan for more than a month, did they?
Click to expand...

What is happening there is consistent with omicron though? Pretty sure there were some studies that show it is tracking the infection rate in HK.
 
UnofficialDevil said:
I wonder if there is a new variant in Shanghai that explains what's happening over there. I mean, they didn't tell us the truth about Wuhan for more than a month, did they?
Click to expand...

As far as the media get solid tips from top national health organizations, it's a subtype of the Omicron variant. I can't tell if the lack of a suitable vaccine is the reason why they go into hard lockdown, but one thing I see are people with conditions not related to COVID suffering a hell lot more this time than it was in Wuhan. As far as other Asian countries nearby go, they seem to not be too bothered despite having high numbers for now because vaccines do their job.
 
Last edited:
RedDevilQuebecois said:
As far as the media get solid tips from top national health organizations, it's a subtype of the Omicron variant. I can't tell if the lack of a suitable vaccine is the reason why they go into hard lockdown, but one thing I see are people with conditions not related to COVID suffering a hell lot more this time than it was in Wuhan. As far as other Asian countries nearby go, they seem to not be too bothered despite having high numbers for now because vaccines do their job.
Click to expand...
Interesting...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.