SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

When will the pandemic officially be declared over?
When enough countries will have done a proper job vaccinating enough people. A number of countries are still doing a really poor job at 1) getting people vaccinated and 2) choosing the best vaccines (mRNA are still the best).
 
It really seems to get you at the worst possible time. My other half has just turned up positive today (almost definitely from a karaoke room she went with some work friends), and was meant to be flying to Spain tomorrow and attending a festival there this weekend.

Meanwhile, it's my birthday on Saturday, and I was planning to spend the weekend with a couple of mates in Manchester and had bought tickets for the United Legends game...

Back at the beginning of the year, my grandma in the US was quite poorly, and my dad was planning to visit, but got it literally 2 days before flying, so had to cancel, and she passed away the week after, which hit him really hard.

I'm negative today, but feel it's inevitable that I'll end up positive in the next few days.
 
Tested positive today, can only assume it’s from the pub while watching the match on Saturday, it was very busy and rowdy. Feel trashed. Rough as feck. Bad timing too, just had some compassionate leave from work and have a big backlog I needed to get through, now I’m back off work, shivering in bed.
 
I though mandating vaccines and deplatforming anti vaxxers would usher in communism?
How long do I have to wait?
 
Deaths starting to climb in Australia. Not surprising given it is heading towards winter and regulations have almost disappeared. Mask wearing in public is very low which won't help.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...tionals-spill-aged-care-health-economy-budget
There's not much evidence that public mask wearing helps with Omicron at all. Though people wearing N95s can get some protection for themselves - especially if they continue wearing them in workplaces, transport and similar long contact situations.

The most disturbing Oz news I've read this week is on flu though:


After a couple of years with very low flu levels, it looks like winter could bring a whole new set of problems. There's still a glimmer of hope though, we may just have got better at spotting/recording flu because of the way testing now works for Covid.
 
There's not much evidence that public mask wearing helps with Omicron at all. Though people wearing N95s can get some protection for themselves - especially if they continue wearing them in workplaces, transport and similar long contact situations.

The most disturbing Oz news I've read this week is on flu though:


After a couple of years with very low flu levels, it looks like winter could bring a whole new set of problems. There's still a glimmer of hope though, we may just have got better at spotting/recording flu because of the way testing now works for Covid.


Yikes. Flu is always a real globe trotter too. Won’t be contained in Aus for long.
 
There's not much evidence that public mask wearing helps with Omicron at all. Though people wearing N95s can get some protection for themselves - especially if they continue wearing them in workplaces, transport and similar long contact situations.

The most disturbing Oz news I've read this week is on flu though:


After a couple of years with very low flu levels, it looks like winter could bring a whole new set of problems. There's still a glimmer of hope though, we may just have got better at spotting/recording flu because of the way testing now works for Covid.


Most states have just made flu vaccine free to try to reduce the flu outbreak.
 
Such a load of shit.

SARS was gonna kill us all. Swine flu and Bird flu was gonna kill us all. Ebola was gonna kill us all. I'm sure it's a serious illness but it's deadliness is amplified 6000% to fill 24 news cycles. No-one will care about this in two weeks.

Replace weeks with years and you were right
 


WTF China. Catastrophic news for the global economy. If only they’d been this decisive when it came to containing the initial outbreak :rolleyes: Thanks a lot.


I've read before that it's not a good look for Chinese leaders to reverse decisions so they never make big changes in CCP congress years and November is the next one. I've seen a lot of people predict that zero covid will be dropped as a strategy after November, but not before.

The article linked alludes to that "But Andy Chen, an analyst at consultancy Trivium China, said Beijing would revise its policy after Xi was confirmed for a third term as the country’s leader late this year."

Hopefully that will be the case.
 
I've read before that it's not a good look for Chinese leaders to reverse decisions so they never make big changes in CCP congress years and November is the next one. I've seen a lot of people predict that zero covid will be dropped as a strategy after November, but not before.

The article linked alludes to that "But Andy Chen, an analyst at consultancy Trivium China, said Beijing would revise its policy after Xi was confirmed for a third term as the country’s leader late this year."

Hopefully that will be the case.

Ah. Ok. Interesting. Fingers crossed.
 
I've read before that it's not a good look for Chinese leaders to reverse decisions so they never make big changes in CCP congress years and November is the next one. I've seen a lot of people predict that zero covid will be dropped as a strategy after November, but not before.

The article linked alludes to that "But Andy Chen, an analyst at consultancy Trivium China, said Beijing would revise its policy after Xi was confirmed for a third term as the country’s leader late this year."

Hopefully that will be the case.

They won't "revise" the policy on surface. But they have been tweaking their definition of zero covid since December. What is likely to happen is they will find a formula to declare victory over covid as they find a way to live with it. May have to wait for their own mrna vaccines to be ready though.
 
Time to swallow their pride and order vaccine doses from the US, or whoever.
They should. Fosun Pharma reached an agreement to distribute and manufacture the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine as early as in the spring of 2020 and should have produce it for the mainland by now. Only Hong Kong and Macau received those vaccines so far, but overzealous national pride from Beijing has held up funds in favor of companies that are not Fosun Pharma. The CCP were relying on Chinese homegrown mRNA vaccines and hoping to not rely on foreign suppliers, but there is a serious lagging behind when it comes to mastering mRNA vaccine technology. It's just horrible to see how far one government can go out of hubris.

Here's an article from May 24 about why this is happening in China: China's Bet on Homegrown mRNA Vaccines Holds Back Nation

edit: And now this! Whoever runs the health ministry over there, what a stupid son of a bitch.

Shanghai orders over half its Residents to undergo covid testing as resurgence fears rise (WSJ)
 
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They should. Fosun Pharma reached an agreement to distribute and manufacture the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine as early as in the spring of 2020 and should have produce it for the mainland by now. Only Hong Kong and Macau received those vaccines so far, but overzealous national pride from Beijing has held up funds in favor of companies that are not Fosun Pharma. The CCP were relying on Chinese homegrown mRNA vaccines and hoping to not rely on foreign suppliers, but there is a serious lagging behind when it comes to mastering mRNA vaccine technology. It's just horrible to see how far one government can go out of hubris.

Here's an article from May 24 about why this is happening in China: China's Bet on Homegrown mRNA Vaccines Holds Back Nation

edit: And now this! Whoever runs the health ministry over there, what a stupid son of a bitch.

Shanghai orders over half its Residents to undergo covid testing as resurgence fears rise (WSJ)
This is what I've heard from my new guru Peter Zeihan, it's become a focal point of propaganda that China can't admit inferiority of vaccine or tactics with Covid.
 
No it’s not. But I would be interested to see if multiple exposures to omicron do eventually prompt more of an immune response in those that had an initial infection with a non-omicron variant. Since this is what is playing out around the world now.

In Australia, most peoples first infection will be omicron, which looking at the the data produces a decent antibody response against omicron. So we are possibly lucky to have stopped those initial waves.

It’s very complicated, the idea of immune imprinting was new to me.
 
No it’s not. But I would be interested to see if multiple exposures to omicron do eventually prompt more of an immune response in those that had an initial infection with a non-omicron variant. Since this is what is playing out around the world now.

In Australia, most peoples first infection will be omicron, which looking at the the data produces a decent antibody response against omicron. So we are possibly lucky to have stopped those initial waves.

It’s very complicated, the idea of immune imprinting was new to me.

Perhaps we really do need an Omicron specific vaccine? Apparently UQ are going again with a redesigned clamp approach as well.
 

No mention of disease severity. We’ve known for ages that vaccination/prior infection gives fairly limited protection against reinfection with omicron. What seems likely though, is that recurrent exposure lowers the risk of a bad outcome to fairly trivial levels. The IFR is currently a fraction of what you see from influenza and it’s trending lower all the time. That’s really all that matters now we have to live with this virus.
 
No mention of disease severity. We’ve known for ages that vaccination/prior infection gives fairly limited protection against reinfection with omicron. What seems likely though, is that recurrent exposure lowers the risk of a bad outcome to fairly trivial levels. The IFR is currently a fraction of what you see from influenza and it’s trending lower all the time. That’s really all that matters now we have to live with this virus.
Understanding the biological info underlying that paper is way beyond me, but the headlines do relate to immunity boosting, rather than to the question of whether the immune system does its job once infected. Also, it's studying a substantial group of triple vaccinated workers but by the time you get to individual cohorts being compared (eg: infected with Wuhan v infected with Alpha etc) the numbers of people in each group get really small. In other words - I don't know whether to care or not.

The thing I did wonder about is whether we're just seeing what we already know from other coronavirus infections? We do keep catching the "common cold" from (amongst other things) variations on previous coronavirus, including presumably ones we've seen before.

COVID's damage capability remains much higher for most people so we will have to keep an eye on variants, and maybe keep updating boosters, but maybe that's just how it is.

Also... Maybe it's a good thing that the body can sort out Omicron using its existing response, and it just can't be bothered to come up with something new? Dons rose-tinted spectacles.