SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Is a double vaccine any good at all against omicron? (Death, ICU, hospitalisation?).
Specifically for the AZ one.
 
Is a double vaccine any good at all against omicron? (Death, ICU, hospitalisation?).
Specifically for the AZ one.
If the second dose was 6 months plus ago, against Omicron AZ gives you next to no protection against infection. It does still gives you some protection against hospitalisation and death - roughly halving your risk compared to the unvaccinated.

The data on this isn't straightforward though. In the UK (where most of the data for 2xAZ in high mortality risk people comes from) almost all unvaxxed adults have already had covid (this will make the AZ stats look worse) and there are hardly any unvaxxed or even unboosted in the highest risk groups - which makes the error bars really big.

The boosters do make a huge difference if you can get one - they push efficacy against death up to about 95% - that is you're 20x safer than if you face omicron unvaxxed.
 
If the second dose was 6 months plus ago, against Omicron AZ gives you next to no protection against infection. It does still gives you some protection against hospitalisation and death - roughly halving your risk compared to the unvaccinated.

The data on this isn't straightforward though. In the UK (where most of the data for 2xAZ in high mortality risk people comes from) almost all unvaxxed adults have already had covid (this will make the AZ stats look worse) and there are hardly any unvaxxed or even unboosted in the highest risk groups - which makes the error bars really big.

The boosters do make a huge difference if you can get one - they push efficacy against death up to about 95% - that is you're 20x safer than if you face omicron unvaxxed.

Thanks.
My father is 75 and wants to travel. He had his second dose either 6 or 8 months ago, and (in India) isn't officially eligible for another dose for one more month. I'm trying to convince him to get one under the table before travel.
(My mother is slightly younger, and she had 2 doses + actual covid, I know that's roughly like being boosted, so less concerned there.)
 
Thanks.
My father is 75 and wants to travel. He had his second dose either 6 or 8 months ago, and (in India) isn't officially eligible for another dose for one more month. I'm trying to convince him to get one under the table before travel.
(My mother is slightly younger, and she had 2 doses + actual covid, I know that's roughly like being boosted, so less concerned there.)

If it was my dad I’d try and find a way to get him boosted early, before he travels. Or convince him to wait until after he’s boosted.
 
If it was my dad I’d try and find a way to get him boosted early, before he travels. Or convince him to wait until after he’s boosted.

Ya, i'm trying to get him to take one somehow. he's concerned that it won't show up on his record, but that's less important than just getting it before travel.
 
No more keeping distance, no more face masks, as good as no more restrictions in Norway from 10AM today. Feels good!
 
Not to mention the people who have something to gain from keeping the pandemic going. One of our ICU nurses has been very outgoing in media and on Facebook and received some sort of local “citizen of the year” award, and now that almost all restrictions are lifted I still get notifications on Facebook about how she’s commented in this or that page about how the pandemic is NOT OVER AND SHE IS AN ICU NURSE WHO WORKS TIRELESSLY WITH THESE PATIENTS despite our ICU having zero covid patients right now and have had a maximum of two over the past three weeks.
Well she’s right that there is still a pandemic. Just that with the variant that’s around now we can live with it with common sense.
 
@Stanley Road did you ever consider getting a job with remote only company like Shopify?
I saw one the other day, double the salary i'm on. But with only 10 years left until retirement i'm not sure i'm up for a move. I can do pretty much what i want at my job so i will see what happens later this month. A lot of our hardware is actually in peoples homes.
 
https://amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/jan/31/lockdowns-had-little-or-no-impact-covid-19-deaths-/



Paper: https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/f...ffects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf

What a surprise, I’ll take all your apologies now innit. And the real shitty thing, the true price of these devastating policies is still to come.

If anyone were to create a global league table of who has had the worst Covid, you’d probably sit atop it. In front of Trump and The Tories and Rogan and so many others.

I don’t think you even know what that paper is analysing, far less what it’s stated outcomes are. It has value when read properly. But it doesn’t say anything that vindicates all of your outrageously wrong takes in the last 24 months.

Go off though.
 
I'm going to Spain at the end of Feb, I'm having my booster this Saturday and I had Covid at the end of December. Aside from filling out the Spanish form, do i need to have a pre-departure covid test? It's all a bit confusing for me.

Regardless of what the rules are…..

Definitely travel with a couple of Covid tests, always. You may get sick while away, or rules may change.

Packing a few should be standard practise for the next year I think.
 
Nearly done with 4 days in isolation with omicron. Relatively mild symptoms I’d say. Day 1 was like a heavy cold, day 2 was a bit better, day 3 was almost back to normal, and day 4 I’m perfectly fine. I actually had worse (although different) symptoms from the booster dose two weeks ago.

Im very curious to how it’s affected my fitness, though. After a good couple of weeks with running and skiing, I’ll be gutted if it takes a long time to get back in business.
 
I had omicron in December 2021 and a regular cold in early February 2022. Honestly, the regular cold was significantly worse - likely because of a combination of factors including covid vaccines and lack of exposure to colds for around 2 years.

But whatever the case, it's good that the UK is getting ready to drop all restrictions. 91.3% of eligible people have been vaccinated at least once, with the rest probably having some degree of immunity from prior infection. If we can't move on now, we never will.
 
I had omicron in December 2021 and a regular cold in early February 2022. Honestly, the regular cold was significantly worse - likely because of a combination of factors including covid vaccines and lack of exposure to colds for around 2 years.

But whatever the case, it's good that the UK is getting ready to drop all restrictions. 91.3% of eligible people have been vaccinated at least once, with the rest probably having some degree of immunity from prior infection. If we can't move on now, we never will.
I still won’t be surprised at all to see restrictions next winter. If vaccine protection drops and it’s 10/11 months since most had their boosters and a new variant rocks up it seems inevitable.
 
I still won’t be surprised at all to see restrictions next winter. If vaccine protection drops and it’s 10/11 months since most had their boosters and a new variant rocks up it seems inevitable.
To be fair, natural immunity gives better protection than vaccines alone do anyway. And that natural immunity should last a good long while. Even if it doesn't, omicron is one of the most contagious diseases in history. Everyone will probably catch a mild dose a couple of times per year and have their immunity topped up in the process. I think that will be enough to stave off new restrictions. Hopefully.

mm7104e1_F-large.gif

Link to the CDC research paper
 
I may be wrong but wouldn’t a further mutation be expected to be weaker/milder again, even if potentially as contagious as omicron?

I think that depends on it being a direct or close evolution from omicron where as there's every chance you'll get other strains mutate.

At least that's what I've gleamed from articles covering that question.
 
I think that depends on it being a direct or close evolution from omicron where as there's every chance you'll get other strains mutate.

At least that's what I've gleamed from articles covering that question.

Correct. And omicron wasn’t a direct descendant of any of the other recent variants. It came from a much earlier branch of the family tree. So if history repeats itself we could end up with a tweaked version of delta, rather than omicron 2.0.
 
A sidenote on some of the collateral damage following our covid response. A lot of the talk so far has been about delayed/missed diagnoses of cancer and heart disease, and things like knee replacements put on hold. What those things had in common was that they were (mostly) unavoidable. They were chasing the same skilled people and hospital facilities that covid was using.

Meanwhile another, potentially disastrous, public health storm is brewing in the young.


The talk so far has been on (academic) catch-up for the school time lost. Looks like we need to be talking about school sports, after school clubs and food poverty.
 
What's the feeling on here about masks now? I went out at the weekend and was in an increasingly small minority that was wearing one on the bus, in shops and in a bar. In the bar I reckon there were two of us out of 100 or so.

I don't mind either wearing one or not wearing one, but I'm still doing it out of a mixture of habit and a sense of community spirit. It just seems the community doesn't care any more. There's also the added benefit of keeping my face nice and warm in the cold and windy weather we're having in Manchester at the moment.
 
What's the feeling on here about masks now? I went out at the weekend and was in an increasingly small minority that was wearing one on the bus, in shops and in a bar. In the bar I reckon there were two of us out of 100 or so.

I don't mind either wearing one or not wearing one, but I'm still doing it out of a mixture of habit and a sense of community spirit. It just seems the community doesn't care any more. There's also the added benefit of keeping my face nice and warm in the cold and windy weather we're having in Manchester at the moment.
In terms of principles, I'm still suggesting anyone who knows they're at risk or still feels vulnerable - wear a KN95/FFP2 mask and avoid crowded indoor spaces.

Personally though I'll follow the rules where they still exist, my maskwearing days are coming to an end - I want to see people's faces, I want my deaf nephew to be able to lipread people again, I'm fed up of my glasses steaming up etc. I do wear a mask on public transport and in supermarkets etc - as an act of solidarity, rather than because I think it makes a significant dent in the omicron R rate. In a bar? No, not really or at least not consistently. I used to wear one on arrival and when moving around, but I think the risk is now so high once you're in a bar/restaurant etc that it's basically pointless, I also think you have to accept that risk if you choose to go in.

It's worth looking at the risk analysis from this study. This assumes a community level covid infection level of 1% (a lot lower than the UK at present. Some people see it as an argument for mask wearing in indoor and outdoor settings - I see it as a reminder that they don't fix much unless you plan to sit outdoors in silence:
FIZ3cT_XsAErr_H
 
In terms of principles, I'm still suggesting anyone who knows they're at risk or still feels vulnerable - wear a KN95/FFP2 mask and avoid crowded indoor spaces.

Personally though I'll follow the rules where they still exist, my maskwearing days are coming to an end - I want to see people's faces, I want my deaf nephew to be able to lipread people again, I'm fed up of my glasses steaming up etc. I do wear a mask on public transport and in supermarkets etc - as an act of solidarity, rather than because I think it makes a significant dent in the omicron R rate. In a bar? No, not really or at least not consistently. I used to wear one on arrival and when moving around, but I think the risk is now so high once you're in a bar/restaurant etc that it's basically pointless, I also think you have to accept that risk if you choose to go in.

It's worth looking at the risk analysis from this study. This assumes a community level covid infection level of 1% (a lot lower than the UK at present. Some people see it as an argument for mask wearing in indoor and outdoor settings - I see it as a reminder that they don't fix much unless you plan to sit outdoors in silence:
FIZ3cT_XsAErr_H
Kind of the response I was expecting, although in a lot more detail. Thanks as ever Jo.

I've been more often than not happy to sit outside when having a drink, but the weather has been so shitty recently they didn't even bother putting any seating outside.
 
What's the feeling on here about masks now? I went out at the weekend and was in an increasingly small minority that was wearing one on the bus, in shops and in a bar. In the bar I reckon there were two of us out of 100 or so.

I don't mind either wearing one or not wearing one, but I'm still doing it out of a mixture of habit and a sense of community spirit. It just seems the community doesn't care any more. There's also the added benefit of keeping my face nice and warm in the cold and windy weather we're having in Manchester at the moment.

I stopped wearing mine when the restrictions ended on the 27th of January.
 
I stopped wearing mine when the restrictions ended on the 27th of January.
I generally don't like following the direction of Boris Johnson, and his policy based on trying to distract the general public from his (and his party's) wrongdoings. So I continued to wear them in busy public places. No judgement of anyone who didn't, mind.
 
I generally don't like following the direction of Boris Johnson, and his policy based on trying to distract the general public from his (and his party's) wrongdoings. So I continued to wear them in busy public places. No judgement of anyone who didn't, mind.

I was more following law than that dosser Boris. The logic of not wearing them in pubs and restaurants made no sense so personally it was inevitable that when the mandate ended that I would follow suit.
 
Wishing anybody who's tested positive here well. Remember DO NOT ignore shortness of breath, being unable to form full sentences without getting breathless or chest pain with this thing. Seek help if so.

I know this is an old post. My mother is 63, triple vaxxed but tested positive for covid (presumably omicron) 7 days ago. Still positive a week on with LFT.

She's not breathless, but since she tested positive she does get 'out of breath' quite easily when walking around the house, fine if she's sitting down. She can hold conversations just fine.

I'd assume this is fairly normal? as breathlessness is specifically mentioned on the NHS website as a symptom of covid.
 
I know this is an old post. My mother is 63, triple vaxxed but tested positive for covid (presumably omicron) 7 days ago. Still positive a week on with LFT.

She's not breathless, but since she tested positive she does get 'out of breath' quite easily when walking around the house, fine if she's sitting down. She can hold conversations just fine.

I'd assume this is fairly normal? as breathlessness is specifically mentioned on the NHS website as a symptom of covid.

NHS helpline:
https://111.nhs.uk/
 
In terms of principles, I'm still suggesting anyone who knows they're at risk or still feels vulnerable - wear a KN95/FFP2 mask and avoid crowded indoor spaces.

Personally though I'll follow the rules where they still exist, my maskwearing days are coming to an end - I want to see people's faces, I want my deaf nephew to be able to lipread people again, I'm fed up of my glasses steaming up etc. I do wear a mask on public transport and in supermarkets etc - as an act of solidarity, rather than because I think it makes a significant dent in the omicron R rate. In a bar? No, not really or at least not consistently. I used to wear one on arrival and when moving around, but I think the risk is now so high once you're in a bar/restaurant etc that it's basically pointless, I also think you have to accept that risk if you choose to go in.

It's worth looking at the risk analysis from this study. This assumes a community level covid infection level of 1% (a lot lower than the UK at present. Some people see it as an argument for mask wearing in indoor and outdoor settings - I see it as a reminder that they don't fix much unless you plan to sit outdoors in silence:
FIZ3cT_XsAErr_H

That graph's colouring is a bit skewed - 16 the same as 99, and not that different from .25.
 
I may be wrong but wouldn’t a further mutation be expected to be weaker/milder again, even if potentially as contagious as omicron?

Any new dominant variant will almost certainly have to be more contagious. It could be more or less virulent that the strain it mutates from (as long as it is not so virulent that the host dies fast enough to offset the increased infectiousness).