SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Thursday and Friday seem to have been biggest reported numbers in last couple of weeks. (Obviously next Tuesday will have bigger real numbers than tomorrow.)

Cases next week will surely nosedive. Sly feckers with milder symptoms won't want to cancel their Christmas plans.
 
Cases next week will surely nosedive. Sly feckers with milder symptoms won't want to cancel their Christmas plans.
Maybe. Doesn't seem like that happened last year. Reported cases are rather meaningless anyway.
 
Oh in case it wasn't clear I was only messing. I constantly bash the schools and the handling of them and it irks certain people. I don't get why they're not letting them off early either, seems like an easy win, surely. I feel bad for the teachers who are probably concerned about getting covid now in advance of Xmas.

^insert Mourinho storming the pitch gif here*

Believe it or not, I am also in favour of closing schools early. Although it would probably make feck all difference as they’ll all be milling in and out of each other’s gaffs anyway. That’s what they do throughout school holidays in my experience. Still, though, it won’t do any harm. Academic stuff goes out the window next week anyway. Although it would be tough for parents who rely on school for childcare (which is not me, thanks to marrying an “influencer” who can happily dick around on Instagram with or without the kids at home).
 
We are not far away from you in Norway now. We have the 9th most infections per population/infected ratio. Some restrictions have come and maybe more will follow as this variant is so extremely contagious. There is a story in the news today about the earlier company christmas party here that infected 74% of the 111 guests. 60% of them got omicron. 1 got Delta. Data shows that 98% of the infected were double vaccinated (Pfizer or Moderna). Among the 25 that did not get infected 7/25 were vaccinated with Pfizer og 12/25 with Moderna. 41/75 infected had the Pfizer vaccine and 17/75 had Moderna.
 


Good news from Gauteng.


qRDeinW.jpg


Prefer the linear scale one its just visually easier to see the difference.
 
qRDeinW.jpg


Prefer the linear scale one its just visually easier to see the difference.

Case numbers are insane after a few days. Death numbers look optimistic, but considering Omicron has only been with us a few days pretty much they are irrelevent right?
 
We are not far away from you in Norway now. We have the 9th most infections per population/infected ratio. Some restrictions have come and maybe more will follow as this variant is so extremely contagious. There is a story in the news today about the earlier company christmas party here that infected 74% of the 111 guests. 60% of them got omicron. 1 got Delta. Data shows that 98% of the infected were double vaccinated (Pfizer or Moderna). Among the 25 that did not get infected 7/25 were vaccinated with Pfizer og 12/25 with Moderna. 41/75 infected had the Pfizer vaccine and 17/75 had Moderna.

Those numbers dont make sense? 98% of the infected were vaccinated with Moderna or Pfizer, but 58/75 infected had one of them? That's 77%.

And it's saying that 6 of the 25 non infected were unvaccinated, whereas only 1 of 75 infected was unvaccinated ie there is less chance of catching it if unvaccinated.
 
Case numbers are insane after a few days. Death numbers look optimistic, but considering Omicron has only been with us a few days pretty much they are irrelevent right?

That's Gauteng South Africa they reckon they have reached the peak already so there may be some lag in hospitalizations and death but its nowhere near Delta is that prior infection or a less severe variant no one currently knows.
 
Case numbers are insane after a few days. Death numbers look optimistic, but considering Omicron has only been with us a few days pretty much they are irrelevent right?
Case numbers are insane after a few days. Death numbers look optimistic, but considering Omicron has only been with us a few days pretty much they are irrelevent right?
I think this wave of covid is very mild, the numbers are staggering compared to previous waves, but no panic on the streets or in the media. The government seams quite “Chilled”, on this outbreak.
No outcry’s or panic and pleas from the Medical and hospital fraternity.
I am still hoping for no lockdown this December season!
 
The strategy is clearly to hope combination of vaccines, natural immunity through infection and the fact indications are that this wave *might* end up with lower hospitalisations as a portion of overall cases will mean we can avoid another lockdown. It becomes politically more difficult as the headline case numbers grow scarier. It's a gamble. I think the next fortnight is key. Now Omicron is here and it's taken a hold the key metrics will determine not only what happens in terms of greater restrictions but also how the public interpret the case numbers. If hospitalisations remain manageable and deaths stay fairly consistent as they have been past few days into the new year I think it'll change how we think/deal with the pandemic and maybe future response to rising cases
 
Oh in case it wasn't clear I was only messing. I constantly bash the schools and the handling of them and it irks certain people. I don't get why they're not letting them off early either, seems like an easy win, surely. I feel bad for the teachers who are probably concerned about getting covid now in advance of Xmas.
I had a feeling!

yeah I feel sorry for the teachers, give them a break!
 
Boris has no real choice but to lie now as he’s promised us Christmas. If he says now that he will shut down on Boxing Day every one will go out and go party like it’s 99.

The problem here however is by Christmas Eve cases maybe near or over 200,000 and it will take balls of steel not to do anything then. If any of us were prime minister we’d be sweating like pigs from today’s data, part of me just wants witty to tweet a lockdown and watch boris squirm.
 
Those numbers dont make sense? 98% of the infected were vaccinated with Moderna or Pfizer, but 58/75 infected had one of them? That's 77%.

And it's saying that 6 of the 25 non infected were unvaccinated, whereas only 1 of 75 infected was unvaccinated ie there is less chance of catching it if unvaccinated.

Sorry about that and thanks for pointing out! It should have read that among those who had two doses, 58/75 had one of them. That was in the article and lost in translation :) There are also some with 3 doses I guess.
 
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472719v1

grim. every word is grim.

one question, which doctors/other biologists can answer - they tested neutralization from serum and some cloned antibodies. could there be another antibody which might still be viable against the variant? (i'm thinking of the long-term immune response stuff that i know nothing about).
 
Boris has no real choice but to lie now as he’s promised us Christmas. If he says now that he will shut down on Boxing Day every one will go out and go party like it’s 99.

The problem here however is by Christmas Eve cases maybe near or over 200,000 and it will take balls of steel not to do anything then. If any of us were prime minister we’d be sweating like pigs from today’s data, part of me just wants witty to tweet a lockdown and watch boris squirm.

If any of us were prime minister we'd just hand over decisions on public health to those qualified to make decisions on public health.
 
If any of us were prime minister we'd just hand over decisions on public health to those qualified to make decisions on public health.

He could argue he’s following the science with the booster. It will be a million cases by the end of the week, could rip through half the UK in a fortnight, in all honesty locking down after Christmas is far far too late, hopefully it’s mild, that’s the great hope right now, it’s almost like survival of the fittest live on TV.
 
This has come at an absolutely horrible time. Even if it is mild, at the rate it’s doubling there will be some horrific headlines in the next few days and Christmas is a week tomorrow. That’s about when we will see the real death data start to come through, right? Or at least between Christmas and new year. If illness severity is worse than currently believed he’s toast.
 
Does anybody remember the name of that Harvard lady on Twitter who uses Lego and napkin maths to explain things to idiots like moi? Seem to have unfollowed her.

edit: found it. https://twitter.com/nataliexdean
 
Last edited:
This has come at an absolutely horrible time. Even if it is mild, at the rate it’s doubling there will be some horrific headlines in the next few days and Christmas is a week tomorrow. That’s about when we will see the real death data start to come through, right? Or at least between Christmas and new year. If illness severity is worse than currently believed he’s toast.
Yeah probably between Christmas and New Year, maybe just after. It’s normally about three weeks after a big increase in cases that you see the hospitalisations rise as well. Hopefully this will not be the case this time but to be honest I think that’s wishful thinking
 
Did anyone think this thread would be as long as this when Covid started? Almost two years in now.
 
Aye, the one who doesn’t think lockdowns in Europe especially, and now has a tonne of data to back that up, have tended make much difference with the long term death rate per capita, and thinks they have too often been used incorrectly (not as part of an elimination strategy like Aus/NZ) and long before they are a last resort is the weirdo.
I’m the weirdo for wanting the World to learn to deal with Covid without locking healthy people in their homes and to understand that they aren’t always necessary to keep hospitals from overflowing, especially now with the help of the vaccines.
I’m the weirdo for wanting my company to continue running for more than a few months and not constantly at risk of bankruptcy.
I’m the weirdo for wanting to be able to visit family and friends in other European countries more regularly than once every two years again.
I’m the weirdo for not wanting us to utterly cripple our economies further, something that people have completely ignored by asking for more lockdowns. We’ve only begun to scratch the surface on our long term cost for these lockdowns.
I’m the weirdo because I’m well aware if the side effects, now well documented, of lockdowns and want them avoided and used only as a last resort.

And for what it’s worth, it’s never been RAB from the cafs opinion, it’s been the opinion of the experts over here, that long term these lockdowns that aren’t used Aus-esque and not as a last resort, would ultimately make little difference and were simply kicking the can down the road. They’ve been bloody well proven correct.

That's a good post - I think lockdowns, especially in the US have not been very effective.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

You can play around with the data and highlight different states/territories, across time, but I think masks and vaccines are much more effective than lockdowns
 
As an aside, I absolutely hate the crowds all over New York City these days. The city is full of tourists (Europe, Midwest), and it absolutely sucks. My work commute which is 5 Ave through Time Square to Columbus Circle is basically 3x longer what it used be just this summer.

Bring back the lockdowns (for outsiders only phleez)

:-)
 
Did anyone think this thread would be as long as this when Covid started? Almost two years in now.
Thought the vaccinations would kill it off, but didn’t foresee how the variants would drag it out. Now think a super all conquering vaccination is the only answer which could take years to develop and administer.
 
Got my booster later this morning. My pregnant wife is booked in too.

I hope she’s ok after getting it - the tin foil hat posts re pregnant women have got under my skin and I feel a bit sick about it all.
 
Last edited:
How long did the Spanish Flu pandemic last, and how did that end up getting resolved? You never hear of it these days and surely science has moved on since then.
 
So what's the out now? Vaccines last year were the answer. Now we have the vaccines nothing has changed

How does this actually end? If it is a case of just living with it/continuing as normal, then when does that actually start? Can't keep doing this every few months
 
If you look at how much more mutated Omicron is compared to previous variants...

FFJsarsUUAUpNLv

Link

And you check the genetic distance of Omicron compared to the rest...
1920px-Omicron_SARS-CoV-2_radial_distance_tree_2021-Dec-01.svg.png


It's tempting to think of this current wave as almost a different pandemic of a different disease. That's why the vaccine advice has changed so suddenly. We're not dealing with the same thing that hit us in March 2020.

I've read some reports suggesting that Omicron is an unholy union between the Delta variant + the Common Cold. That makes sense (to me as a layman) as we now seem to be facing a wave that shares some of the worst traits of both.
 
So what's the out now? Vaccines last year were the answer. Now we have the vaccines nothing has changed

How does this actually end? If it is a case of just living with it/continuing as normal, then when does that actually start? Can't keep doing this every few months
Omicron is almost a different disease that we're dealing with.

The more widespread Covid is, the more it mutates. And the more it mutates, the more difficult it is to pin down and eradicate with targetted treatment.

The 'end' is to try and bring down the numbers so that mutations become less frequent. Once that happens, we can deal with a single enemy rather than multiple ones that can keep evading our traps.

The light at the end of the tunnel is that Omicron is so different from the rest that if we can deal with that, we can hopefully deal with anything.