Or dare I say it..next Wednesday.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Thursday and Friday seem to have been biggest reported numbers in last couple of weeks. (Obviously next Tuesday will have bigger real numbers than tomorrow.)
Cases next week will surely nosedive. Sly feckers with milder symptoms won't want to cancel their Christmas plans.
Maybe. Doesn't seem like that happened last year. Reported cases are rather meaningless anyway.
^insert Mourinho storming the pitch gif here*
Believe it or not, I am also in favour of closing schools early. Although it would probably make feck all difference as they’ll all be milling in and out of each other’s gaffs anyway. That’s what they do throughout school holidays in my experience. Still, though, it won’t do any harm. Academic stuff goes out the window next week anyway. Although it would be tough for parents who rely on school for childcare (which is not me, thanks to marrying an “influencer” who can happily dick around on Instagram with or without the kids at home).
Good news from Gauteng.
We are not far away from you in Norway now. We have the 9th most infections per population/infected ratio. Some restrictions have come and maybe more will follow as this variant is so extremely contagious. There is a story in the news today about the earlier company christmas party here that infected 74% of the 111 guests. 60% of them got omicron. 1 got Delta. Data shows that 98% of the infected were double vaccinated (Pfizer or Moderna). Among the 25 that did not get infected 7/25 were vaccinated with Pfizer og 12/25 with Moderna. 41/75 infected had the Pfizer vaccine and 17/75 had Moderna.
Mmmmmm............... That sounds........... Interesting.... Thanks!
Prefer the linear scale one its just visually easier to see the difference.
Case numbers are insane after a few days. Death numbers look optimistic, but considering Omicron has only been with us a few days pretty much they are irrelevent right?
Those numbers dont make sense? 98% of the infected were vaccinated with Moderna or Pfizer, but 58/75 infected had one of them? That's 77%.
And it's saying that 6 of the 25 non infected were unvaccinated, whereas only 1 of 75 infected was unvaccinated ie there is less chance of catching it if unvaccinated.
That's Gauteng South Africa they reckon they have reached the peak already so there may be some lag in hospitalizations and death but its nowhere near Delta is that prior infection or a less severe variant no one currently knows.
I think this wave of covid is very mild, the numbers are staggering compared to previous waves, but no panic on the streets or in the media. The government seams quite “Chilled”, on this outbreak.
No outcry’s or panic and pleas from the Medical and hospital fraternity.
I am still hoping for no lockdown this December season!
The strategy is clearly to hope combination of vaccines, natural immunity through infection and the fact indications are that this wave *might* end up with lower hospitalisations as a portion of overall cases will mean we can avoid another lockdown. It becomes politically more difficult as the headline case numbers grow scarier. It's a gamble. I think the next fortnight is key. Now Omicron is here and it's taken a hold the key metrics will determine not only what happens in terms of greater restrictions but also how the public interpret the case numbers. If hospitalisations remain manageable and deaths stay fairly consistent as they have been past few days into the new year I think it'll change how we think/deal with the pandemic and maybe future response to rising cases
Why has "+ve" been allowed to become a thing?
It's irritating, but I'm guessing it's due to twitter character limit and has broken free of the platform.
Boris has no real choice but to lie now as he’s promised us Christmas. If he says now that he will shut down on Boxing Day every one will go out and go party like it’s 99.
The problem here however is by Christmas Eve cases maybe near or over 200,000 and it will take balls of steel not to do anything then. If any of us were prime minister we’d be sweating like pigs from today’s data, part of me just wants witty to tweet a lockdown and watch boris squirm.
The problem here however is by Christmas Eve cases maybe near or over 200,000 and it will take balls of steel not to do anything then. If any of us were prime minister we’d be sweating like pigs from today’s data, part of me just wants witty to tweet a lockdown and watch boris squirm.
Sorry about that and thanks for pointing out! It should have read that among those who had two doses, 58/75 had one of them. That was in the article and lost in translation
There are also some with 3 doses I guess.https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472719v1
grim. every word is grim.
one question, which doctors/other biologists can answer - they tested neutralization from serum and some cloned antibodies. could there be another antibody which might still be viable against the variant? (i'm thinking of the long-term immune response stuff that i know nothing about).
grim. every word is grim.
one question, which doctors/other biologists can answer - they tested neutralization from serum and some cloned antibodies. could there be another antibody which might still be viable against the variant? (i'm thinking of the long-term immune response stuff that i know nothing about).
If any of us were prime minister we'd just hand over decisions on public health to those qualified to make decisions on public health.
He could argue he’s following the science with the booster. It will be a million cases by the end of the week, could rip through half the UK in a fortnight, in all honesty locking down after Christmas is far far too late, hopefully it’s mild, that’s the great hope right now, it’s almost like survival of the fittest live on TV.
This has come at an absolutely horrible time. Even if it is mild, at the rate it’s doubling there will be some horrific headlines in the next few days and Christmas is a week tomorrow. That’s about when we will see the real death data start to come through, right? Or at least between Christmas and new year. If illness severity is worse than currently believed he’s toast.
Does anybody remember the name of that Harvard lady on Twitter who uses Lego and napkin maths to explain things to idiots like moi? Seem to have unfollowed her.
edit: found it. https://twitter.com/nataliexdean
edit: found it. https://twitter.com/nataliexdean
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Yeah probably between Christmas and New Year, maybe just after. It’s normally about three weeks after a big increase in cases that you see the hospitalisations rise as well. Hopefully this will not be the case this time but to be honest I think that’s wishful thinking
Did anyone think this thread would be as long as this when Covid started? Almost two years in now.
That's a good post - I think lockdowns, especially in the US have not been very effective.
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
You can play around with the data and highlight different states/territories, across time, but I think masks and vaccines are much more effective than lockdowns
As an aside, I absolutely hate the crowds all over New York City these days. The city is full of tourists (Europe, Midwest), and it absolutely sucks. My work commute which is 5 Ave through Time Square to Columbus Circle is basically 3x longer what it used be just this summer.
Bring back the lockdowns (for outsiders only phleez)
:-)
Bring back the lockdowns (for outsiders only phleez)
:-)
Thought the vaccinations would kill it off, but didn’t foresee how the variants would drag it out. Now think a super all conquering vaccination is the only answer which could take years to develop and administer.
Got my booster later this morning. My pregnant wife is booked in too.
I hope she’s ok after getting it - the tin foil hat posts re pregnant women have got under my skin and I feel a bit sick about it all.
I hope she’s ok after getting it - the tin foil hat posts re pregnant women have got under my skin and I feel a bit sick about it all.
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The sad thing is that it will probably be another two years as well
How long did the Spanish Flu pandemic last, and how did that end up getting resolved? You never hear of it these days and surely science has moved on since then.
Turns out we all built up some form of immunity according to Pogue. We call it H1N1 now. Just a normal seasonal flu.
So what's the out now? Vaccines last year were the answer. Now we have the vaccines nothing has changed
How does this actually end? If it is a case of just living with it/continuing as normal, then when does that actually start? Can't keep doing this every few months
How does this actually end? If it is a case of just living with it/continuing as normal, then when does that actually start? Can't keep doing this every few months
If you look at how much more mutated Omicron is compared to previous variants...
Link
And you check the genetic distance of Omicron compared to the rest...
It's tempting to think of this current wave as almost a different pandemic of a different disease. That's why the vaccine advice has changed so suddenly. We're not dealing with the same thing that hit us in March 2020.
I've read some reports suggesting that Omicron is an unholy union between the Delta variant + the Common Cold. That makes sense (to me as a layman) as we now seem to be facing a wave that shares some of the worst traits of both.
Link
And you check the genetic distance of Omicron compared to the rest...
It's tempting to think of this current wave as almost a different pandemic of a different disease. That's why the vaccine advice has changed so suddenly. We're not dealing with the same thing that hit us in March 2020.
I've read some reports suggesting that Omicron is an unholy union between the Delta variant + the Common Cold. That makes sense (to me as a layman) as we now seem to be facing a wave that shares some of the worst traits of both.
When I worked in a hospital +ve / -ve were always accepted shorthand in medical notes. I just assume it's been used more generally now.
Omicron is almost a different disease that we're dealing with.
The more widespread Covid is, the more it mutates. And the more it mutates, the more difficult it is to pin down and eradicate with targetted treatment.
The 'end' is to try and bring down the numbers so that mutations become less frequent. Once that happens, we can deal with a single enemy rather than multiple ones that can keep evading our traps.
The light at the end of the tunnel is that Omicron is so different from the rest that if we can deal with that, we can hopefully deal with anything.
It's a convention that's been used in Maths and Physics for decades. Probably centuries.