SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I got covid in mid March and havn't gotten vaccinated. I'm not sure what to think. Perhaps someone who has gotten the jab could offer an opinion? It puts me off when I constantly hear even fully vaccinated people get hospitalized and can get pretty sick too. I don't know what to do. I take good care of myself but I'm a little suspect about the efffects of this vaccine. I havn't seen any reduction in spreading of the virus since the vaccine was launched, actually it's probably spreading worse?

The fact that you have to inject this 3 times into your body makes me anxious.
 
I got covid in mid March and havn't gotten vaccinated. I'm not sure what to think. Perhaps someone who has gotten the jab could offer an opinion? It puts me off when I constantly hear even fully vaccinated people get hospitalized and can get pretty sick too. I don't know what to do. I take good care of myself but I'm a little suspect about the efffects of this vaccine. I havn't seen any reduction in spreading of the virus since the vaccine was launched, actually it's probably spreading worse?

The fact that you have to inject this 3 times into your body makes me anxious.
If you get vaccinated now, you’ll probably have the best protection possible. We go for it!
 
Made me wait until 29th for my booster, yet my friend simply went online yesterday and has his next week.

Bloody stupid as I booked 3 weeks ago for earliest available date
 
Made me wait until 29th for my booster, yet my friend simply went online yesterday and has his next week.

Bloody stupid as I booked 3 weeks ago for earliest available date
Check what it can offer you if you ask it to rearrange the booking. It gives you a limited look at availability before you actually cancel.
 
Check what it can offer you if you ask it to rearrange the booking. It gives you a limited look at availability before you actually cancel.

I could just change to another location and get it done quicker.

I know when I had my originally jabs, they told me that people were just walking in without appointments
 
:lol:

I did a parachute jump once and didn’t die. Either the MSM are lying about the risk of jumping out of aeroplanes or the full Irish breakfast I had that morning has powerful life saving properties.

That checks out. I always knew potato bread was magical!

I got covid in mid March and havn't gotten vaccinated. I'm not sure what to think. Perhaps someone who has gotten the jab could offer an opinion? It puts me off when I constantly hear even fully vaccinated people get hospitalized and can get pretty sick too. I don't know what to do. I take good care of myself but I'm a little suspect about the efffects of this vaccine. I havn't seen any reduction in spreading of the virus since the vaccine was launched, actually it's probably spreading worse?

The fact that you have to inject this 3 times into your body makes me anxious.

If the concern is about risk, the main question to ask is how likely are you to suffer severe illness from the vaccine, vs. how likely are you to suffer severe illness from covid - with and without the vaccine? It resonates more if you find out that information for yourself rather than hearing it from someone with an alternative perspective. That one has a really clear-cut answer.
 
A bit confusing when the headline says “study suggests surge in deaths”. Not sure what we’re supposed to think?

Thats based on the modelling from UK experts which has been nothing short of miles off everytime, the lady speaking is the actual reality.
 
Thats based on the modelling from UK experts which has been nothing short of miles off everytime, the lady speaking is the actual reality.

It’s the actual reality in South Africa. The big unknown is whether the experience will be similar in countries with (for example) a much higher % of elderly/vulnerable people. And that’s where the modelling comes in. Taking real life data from another country and plugging into a model based on demographics in the UK.
 
Is there anything about immunity against Omicron for those who have had covid?

Small sample of course, but my mum works at a GP surgery. All staff are triple jabbed - and last week 3 of them caught covid except for my mum who has just seen her negative PCR return. My mum and one other colleague (who also just had a negative PCR) are the only two who had covid last winter.
 
Thats based on the modelling from UK experts which has been nothing short of miles off everytime, the lady speaking is the actual reality.
It really hasn't. Modelling warns you about what happens if you change nothing. In real life when the numbers in the model got too hairy we went into various degrees of restrictions or lockdowns. More surprising perhaps people sometimes react faster than the government does - like the PL stopping playing before they were told to or the companies who've decided to change/postpone their Christmas parties this month.

The modellers know there are things they can't predict so they state that in the model. Just like that original Imperial College model said "if you do nothing, 500 thousand die." It didn't happen because we didn't do nothing.
 
It really hasn't. Modelling warns you about what happens if you change nothing. In real life when the numbers in the model got too hairy we went into various degrees of restrictions or lockdowns. More surprising perhaps people sometimes react faster than the government does - like the PL stopping playing before they were told to or the companies who've decided to change/postpone their Christmas parties this month.

The modellers know there are things they can't predict so they state that in the model. Just like that original Imperial College model said "if you do nothing, 500 thousand die." It didn't happen because we didn't do nothing.

they have modelled it on the severity of delta which the data is painting a clear picture this isn’t the case
 
Is there anything about immunity against Omicron for those who have had covid?

Small sample of course, but my mum works at a GP surgery. All staff are triple jabbed - and last week 3 of them caught covid except for my mum who has just seen her negative PCR return. My mum and one other colleague (who also just had a negative PCR) are the only two who had covid last winter.
Some good evidence that vaccine +infection works very well against infection and some that recent infection works against infection provided you were ill enough to develop plenty of antibodies. From SA it looks like (at least in the under 60s) vaccines and/or past infection are both protective against severe disease.
 
Some good evidence that vaccine +infection works very well against infection and some that recent infection works against infection provided you were ill enough to develop plenty of antibodies. From SA it looks like (at least in the under 60s) vaccines and/or past infection are both protective against severe disease.
That sounds quite positive.
 
It really hasn't. Modelling warns you about what happens if you change nothing. In real life when the numbers in the model got too hairy we went into various degrees of restrictions or lockdowns. More surprising perhaps people sometimes react faster than the government does - like the PL stopping playing before they were told to or the companies who've decided to change/postpone their Christmas parties this month.

The modellers know there are things they can't predict so they state that in the model. Just like that original Imperial College model said "if you do nothing, 500 thousand die." It didn't happen because we didn't do nothing.

What was the situation in the summer when 100k cases were predicted daily after freedom day? Was that a lone wolf unconnected from Sage who said that or the actual panel, can't remember.

That was of course with limited social distancing and mask wearing and thousands packed back into sports grounds with the inevitable crushes on public transport. Also at that point vaccine uptake was certainly over 50%.

Edit; Oh ffs Javid actually said it. :lol:

Covid cases could soon rise above 100,000 a day, Javid concedes | Coronavirus | The Guardian
 
Johnson is deluded yet again, that target isn't realistic. Late Jan/early Feb to get boosters up into 40m + is a little more realistic.
 
Johnson is deluded yet again, that target isn't realistic. Late Jan/early Feb to get boosters up into 40m + is a little more realistic.
I just booked mine today and earliest I could get was January 6th.
 
Boris and the BBC site are letting me down, does "level 4" change anything in terms of what I can do?

1 step away from the worst stage before he has to do something that nobody will follow
 
Booster done yesterday, my third Moderna jab. Had a little bit of tiredness and feeling hot today but not enough to stop me skiing, and nothing like the side effects I had with dose 2.

Oh and my arm kills.
 
What was the situation in the summer when 100k cases were predicted daily after freedom day? Was that a lone wolf unconnected from Sage who said that or the actual panel, can't remember.

That was of course with limited social distancing and mask wearing and thousands packed back into sports grounds with the inevitable crushes on public transport. Also at that point vaccine uptake was certainly over 50%.

Edit; Oh ffs Javid actually said it. :lol:

Covid cases could soon rise above 100,000 a day, Javid concedes | Coronavirus | The Guardian

I’m not really sure what kind of points you’re trying to score here. Or are you just trying to let everyone know you’re unfamiliar with the word “could”?

All of these models have loads of uncertain variables so it’s impossible to be very accurate. It’s all about educated guesses, with a huge range between best and worst case outcomes. But it’s the worst case scenarios that get talked about the most because nobody wants to allow things get to a point where the worst case future will end up crashing the health service.

One of the most annoying criticisms of the measures taken throughout this pandemic has been people saying “you said it would be much worse than it was” Well, yes, it could have been much worse than it was but a bit of luck combined with the measures that were taken managed to avoid the worst possible predictions. Which is great. But obviously shouldn’t be used as ammunition to fire at the next expert who warns how badly things could go if we’re not very careful.
 
What was the situation in the summer when 100k cases were predicted daily after freedom day? Was that a lone wolf unconnected from Sage who said that or the actual panel, can't remember.

That was of course with limited social distancing and mask wearing and thousands packed back into sports grounds with the inevitable crushes on public transport. Also at that point vaccine uptake was certainly over 50%.

Edit; Oh ffs Javid actually said it. :lol:

Covid cases could soon rise above 100,000 a day, Javid concedes | Coronavirus | The Guardian
Javid said it because it was "reasonable worst case" that the government decided we could live with. Other models presented what they viewed as more "likely".

As it happens we didn't "rip the pants out of it" as Jonathon Van Team warned us against - so we went and sat on the likely steady state line. In fact we sat on it so well, it was almost as if people were looking at the number of cases/deaths being reported and taking decisions about their own behaviour.

It also looked like our remaining controls - through lateral flow tests, self isolation after a positive test and getting vaccinated did exactly what they were supposed to.
 
So if I read between the lines correctly:

Astrazeneca/Jannsen are useless against Omicron.
Pfizer and Moderna are ok, but you need to have had it recently. What's the 'peak protection period' ? After 8 weeks or so?
Past infection is ok too, but depending on how old/what variant it was, and how severe it was?
 
they have modelled it on the severity of delta which the data is painting a clear picture this isn’t the case
The very clear picture is emerging about what happens to under 60s who have either been vaccinated or have had recent prior infections.

We don't yet have a very clear picture on the over 60s or the immune naive (no vax, no recent infection)

Incidentally, I talked about the things that are built into the model a couple of days ago. There's nothing hidden about the model, they warn that it will change repeatedly in the next few days. The modelling data is designed to be read in it's entirety by SAGE scientists not as a clickbait headline:
One for people interested in what kind of modelling the scientists are presenting via SAGE to the NHS and the government.

Two things to note before you read the headlines about "scientists predict" millions of cases, hundreds of thousands of hospitalisations and tens of thousands of deaths:
First - they aren't predictions. They describe a set of assumptions based on current best evidence and look at what happens if nothing else changes (ie: no lockdowns, no people deciding to limit their own social activities etc and that their other assumptions about vaccines etc hold true)
Second - they have to make assumptions about severity. So they assume that once infected you're as likely to get hospitalised/die as you would be if you caught delta. In reality we don't yet know if that's true.

A glimpse into the complex and difficult world of statistical modelling and what goes on behind the headlines: