SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

TLDR - could you summarise please? :)

Patients are younger and less sick than previous waves. Shorter hospital stays and the vast majority don’t even need oxygen. A lot of diagnoses are incidental pick up on patients admitted for other reason.

The big caveat is that it’s still very early days and there’s always been a lag of a couple of weeks between cases shooting up and the really sick cases filling up hospitals. Still, though, best omicron news I’ve read yet!
 
Will one strain necessarily become dominant at the expense of others though, or could we just have Delta alongside Omicron, and whatever else?
I'm not an expert like Pogue or jojojo or gaucho_10. But that's certainly what happened with Delta usurping Beta and Alpha before it.
 
Patients are younger and less sick than previous waves. Shorter hospital stays and the vast majority don’t even need oxygen. A lot of diagnoses are incidental pick up on patients admitted for other reason.

The big caveat is that it’s still very early days and there’s always been a lag of a couple of weeks between cases shooting up and the really sick cases filling up hospitals. Still, though, best omicron news I’ve read yet!
OK thanks, fingers crossed on this
 
in light of the recent discussion, I just read about 5 minutes ago that 2 players of a club whose squad was completely infected (Berlin AK) in the last few weeks collapsed after their last game against Jena. They're fine as of now but will undergo profound diagnostic.
 
Nipped over to the Arndale earlier and it was infuriating how few people were wearing masks, and even where stores had signs up saying they’d refuse entry/service nobody was doing anything about it.
 
Italy's Super Green Pass comes into force on 6 December, just before the public holiday on 8 December. The measures will run until mid-January. If you're in the 16% who have chosen not to be vaccinated, you'll have no chance of doing anything social over Christmas and New Year - no bars, no restaurants, no shows, no concerts, no ski resorts, no long-distance public transport, no gyms. You can still go to work and use local transport with a negative test result.

The government have (quite rightly in my opinion) said that it's unfair that the majority should suffer alongside the minority.
 
Italy's Super Green Pass comes into force on 6 December, just before the public holiday on 8 December. The measures will run until mid-January. If you're in the 16% who have chosen not to be vaccinated, you'll have no chance of doing anything social over Christmas and New Year - no bars, no restaurants, no shows, no concerts, no ski resorts, no long-distance public transport, no gyms. You can still go to work and use local transport with a negative test result.

The government have (quite rightly in my opinion) said that it's unfair that the majority should suffer alongside the minority.

This needs to happen in more places.
 
Patients are younger and less sick than previous waves. Shorter hospital stays and the vast majority don’t even need oxygen. A lot of diagnoses are incidental pick up on patients admitted for other reason.

The big caveat is that it’s still very early days and there’s always been a lag of a couple of weeks between cases shooting up and the really sick cases filling up hospitals. Still, though, best omicron news I’ve read yet!

How long do we have to wait for before we'll be sure if this shit is serious or not?
2 weeks from the discovery of the strain?
 
I think exactly that. They will muddle through Christmas and New Year then face the repercussions afterwards. So long as hospitals aren't being over run and deaths don't climb I can't see anything shifting at number 10 nor will public acceptance of any return to strict regulations.

Not sure UK will go into another lockdown but do think vaccine passports in England will come in. Honestly cannot see argument against them before omicron and think they would have relatively high public acceptance and cooperation.

Boris seems to have held out simply because of the objections of far right nut jobs upon who his own job remains reliant

I think it’s different now. People from all political sides are pretty angry at the Christmas Parties held last year in Downing Street while we were all in lockdown and taking one for the team. Add to that the Met Police refusal to investigate when people are still going to court for lockdown breaches from last year and it paints a picture of the higher ups not really giving a toss, not taking it seriously, and has really undermined trust in any restrictions or laws that may be passed in the future.

Whether it’s vaccine passports, or future restrictions to full lockdown. The goodwill and unity that saw compliance in March 2020 is dead. People know the virus is here to stay, people also know that if they sacrifice to reduce any further next curve it’ll only be a matter of time until they hear news about the powers that be completely ignoring those rules and getting away with it.
 
Italy's Super Green Pass comes into force on 6 December, just before the public holiday on 8 December. The measures will run until mid-January. If you're in the 16% who have chosen not to be vaccinated, you'll have no chance of doing anything social over Christmas and New Year - no bars, no restaurants, no shows, no concerts, no ski resorts, no long-distance public transport, no gyms. You can still go to work and use local transport with a negative test result.

The government have (quite rightly in my opinion) said that it's unfair that the majority should suffer alongside the minority.

How utterly vile. I cannot believe people are yearning for this.
 
How long do we have to wait for before we'll be sure if this shit is serious or not?
2 weeks from the discovery of the strain?

We’re three weeks since the first omicron case already but the numbers have really only gone ballistic in the last week. We’ll have a good idea re seriousness by next weekend. And excellent one the week after.

What’s really muddying the water right now is that the average age of the people getting infected is very young. And every strain of covid tends not to be serious in the young. Nobody is sure why we’re not seeing many older people getting sick with covid. South Africa has a young population but prevents waves didn’t skew this young. Could be due to higher vaccine rates in the older (50%+ compared to 25% overall) or something else going on.
 
About 6,750 football players, refs and officials have developed Myocarditis due to the vaccine.

If they didn't get the vaccine and all got Covid then 264,600 would have developed Myocarditis and 9 million football players, refs and officials would've died.

Sources and math below.

The mortality rate of COVID is 3.4%.
There are 270 million football players, refs and officials in the world.
If everyone got COVID, just over 9 million would've died.

The risk of Myocarditis among ALL patients with COVID-19 is 0.146% (it is 0.098% for 16-27-year-olds)
That means if all 270 m football players, refs and officials got Covid, and they were all aged between 16 and 24, roughly 264 600 would have developed Myocarditis

In one study 136 in 5 million (0.0027%) who had received the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine developed Myocarditis
In another study 54 in 2.5 million (0.0021%) people developed Myocarditis

So, if all football players, refs and officials got Pfizer (and they had an average chance of 0.0025% of developing Myocarditis), 6750 would develop it due to the vaccine.

There is nothing I love more to answer conspiracy theorist nonsense than actual stats and facts. It really makes but vaccines are bad mmmmmK seem as idiotic as it is.
 
How utterly vile. I cannot believe people are yearning for this.

Why.. ?

Because you think it's ok for people to be selfish arse holes putting others lives at risks because some moron on Facebook told them vaccines are to rule the world!

Being unvaccinated and continuing to put others at risk is really no different to sticking a bullet in a chamber spinning it round and heading to the shops to shoot the first person you see.
 
Italy's Super Green Pass comes into force on 6 December, just before the public holiday on 8 December. The measures will run until mid-January. If you're in the 16% who have chosen not to be vaccinated, you'll have no chance of doing anything social over Christmas and New Year - no bars, no restaurants, no shows, no concerts, no ski resorts, no long-distance public transport, no gyms. You can still go to work and use local transport with a negative test result.

The government have (quite rightly in my opinion) said that it's unfair that the majority should suffer alongside the minority.

A bit of common sense from a government for once, I hope the 84 % really enjoy their Christmas and New Year.
 
You know I’ve always doubted how effective they are long term, and when not used as a last resort and this does nothing to convince me otherwise. That’s without even going into the “side effects” of lockdowns.
So I’m not even convinced that “wanting” it for the right reasons before last resort actually makes much sense.
I totally agree. I was totally for lockdowns while we were at early stages and didn’t know the mortality etc., but know with vaccinations rates as they are we shouldn’t encourage any lockdowns. Masks? Yes, please. Social distancing? Yes, enforce in closed spaces. More capacity to handle covid patients? Yes, please. Strict rules in hospitals? Yes. Boosters? Sure. While it’s clear when hospitals get overwhelmed normal treatments do have to get postponed but there’s as much evidence to say that normal medical services are not available for people during lockdowns as doctors opt to do the phone consultations which arguably bring more harm overall. That’s not even touching upon topics associated with mental health.
 
We’re three weeks since the first omicron case already but the numbers have really only gone ballistic in the last week. We’ll have a good idea re seriousness by next weekend. And excellent one the week after.

What’s really muddying the water right now is that the average age of the people getting infected is very young. And every strain of covid tends not to be serious in the young. Nobody is sure why we’re not seeing many older people getting sick with covid. South Africa has a young population but prevents waves didn’t skew this young. Could be due to higher vaccine rates in the older (50%+ compared to 25% overall) or something else going on.

Thanks man.
Will we get a definite answer from Pfizer/AZ/Moderna about the effectiveness of vaccines on this new variant any time soon?
 
Thanks man.
Will we get a definite answer from Pfizer/AZ/Moderna about the effectiveness of vaccines on this new variant any time soon?
Not really, not definite anyway. They may have neutralisation results (take blood from vaxxed person see if it kills the virus in a test tube) next week. You'll then probably see headlines saying that the vaccine looks less effective at stopping infection - that's to be expected, because the ready to go antibodies won't be quite as well tuned to this mutation as they were to the Wuhan original. They might get an idea of how much less effective by comparing results to past trials with alpha, beta and Delta

But those ready to go antibodies are only part of the immune response that vaccines train. The others are memory cells and they can tweak the recipe when they see another variant to produce new antibodies. It's much harder to test those in a test tube and we won't really know how well they're working until we see it in real life in real people. It might be that people do catch it, but the vaccine still protects them from serious illness.
 
Some absolutely love it, the forum is massively in favour of lockdowns, long before it becomes a last resort.

Nobody wants them or likes them but they are essential to protect your people until a) you can get a huge proportion of people vaccinated and b) when they are required to prevent the hospital system melting down.

AU and NZ have done this very successfully and are now fairly restriction free and apart from masks on public transport things will hopefully be back to fairly normal by the end of Jan.

In comparison Sweden has had 3000 deaths per million people, Australia 77 and NZ 4 per mill. NZ and Sweden are the same size and Sweden has had a total of 15000 deaths and NZ 44.

If preventing 15,000 deaths doesn't trigger a "last resort" action I don't know what would.
 
No idea how you tackle this, but it's abundantly clear that the unvaccinated are clogging up wards including ICU, and delaying cancer and transplant operations.
Medical staff speaking out about it in lead story in the Times today.

Doctors and nurses vent anger as unvaccinated Covid cases delay vital operations

Doctors and nurses have told of their anger and frustration at not being able to treat seriously ill patients as new figures show that more than 90 per cent of Covid sufferers requiring the most specialist care are unvaccinated.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...-covid-cases-delay-vital-operations-z3zchvv9l
 
In comparison Sweden has had 3000 deaths per million people, Australia 77 and NZ 4 per mill. NZ and Sweden are the same size and Sweden has had a total of 15000 deaths and NZ 44.

Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Portugal, Belgium have the same size populations too and much more in common than an isolated island in the middle of the pacific.
There are a tonne of fellow European countries that started great, had their multiple lockdowns and ended up worse per capita regardless. So yes, it’s way more nuanced than simply “lockdowns save lives” long term. Have they saved lives in Aus and NZ so far? Yes, they’ve been an important part of their responses. When used as part of an elimination strategy they’ve been much more successful, absolutely.
Have they in Austria, Greece, Switzerland? Hmmm…. Much much more nuanced and appears to line up with what I banged on about constantly last year, that they were simply kicking the can down the road and that they even made their following peaks larger due to the champagne cork effect. That’s not even a debate any longer, as much as you were desperate to dismiss it last year.
 
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You're such a weirdo

Aye, the one who doesn’t think lockdowns in Europe especially, and now has a tonne of data to back that up, have tended make much difference with the long term death rate per capita, and thinks they have too often been used incorrectly (not as part of an elimination strategy like Aus/NZ) and long before they are a last resort is the weirdo.
I’m the weirdo for wanting the World to learn to deal with Covid without locking healthy people in their homes and to understand that they aren’t always necessary to keep hospitals from overflowing, especially now with the help of the vaccines.
I’m the weirdo for wanting my company to continue running for more than a few months and not constantly at risk of bankruptcy.
I’m the weirdo for wanting to be able to visit family and friends in other European countries more regularly than once every two years again.
I’m the weirdo for not wanting us to utterly cripple our economies further, something that people have completely ignored by asking for more lockdowns. We’ve only begun to scratch the surface on our long term cost for these lockdowns.
I’m the weirdo because I’m well aware if the side effects, now well documented, of lockdowns and want them avoided and used only as a last resort.

And for what it’s worth, it’s never been RAB from the cafs opinion, it’s been the opinion of the experts over here, that long term these lockdowns that aren’t used Aus-esque and not as a last resort, would ultimately make little difference and were simply kicking the can down the road. They’ve been bloody well proven correct.
 
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No idea how you tackle this, but it's abundantly clear that the unvaccinated are clogging up wards including ICU, and delaying cancer and transplant operations.
Medical staff speaking out about it in lead story in the Times today.

Doctors and nurses vent anger as unvaccinated Covid cases delay vital operations



https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...-covid-cases-delay-vital-operations-z3zchvv9l

And they are quite right to feel that way aren't they.
When there is a problem and a solution is provided, free of charge and individuals reject that solution, they should be the ones who are responsible for their actions.
But in this case, they are causing others to be affected.
This is especially bad when the NHS is concerned.

Wonder if they will reject the pill as well.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...and-it-could-happen-before-christmas-12487030
 
Aye, the one who doesn’t think lockdowns in Europe especially, and now has a tonne of data to back that up, have tended make much difference with the long term death rate per capita, and thinks they have too often been used incorrectly (not as part of an elimination strategy like Aus/NZ) and long before they are a last resort is the weirdo.
I’m the weirdo for wanting the World to learn to deal with Covid without locking healthy people in their homes and to understand that they aren’t always necessary to keep hospitals from overflowing, especially now with the help of the vaccines.
I’m the weirdo for wanting my company to continue running for more than a few months and not constantly at risk of bankruptcy.
I’m the weirdo for wanting to be able to visit family and friends in other European countries more regularly than once every two years again.
I’m the weirdo for not wanting us to utterly cripple our economies further, something that people have completely ignored by asking for more lockdowns. We’ve only begun to scratch the surface on our long term cost for these lockdowns.
I’m the weirdo because I’m well aware if the side effects, now well documented, of lockdowns and want them avoided and used only as a last resort.

And for what it’s worth, it’s never been RAB from the cafs opinion, it’s been the opinion of the experts over here, that long term these lockdowns that aren’t used Aus-esque and not as a last resort, would ultimately make little difference and were simply kicking the can down the road. They’ve been bloody well proven correct.

Ok mate
 
And they are quite right to feel that way aren't they.
When there is a problem and a solution is provided, free of charge and individuals reject that solution, they should be the ones who are responsible for their actions.
But in this case, they are causing others to be affected.
This is especially bad when the NHS is concerned.

Wonder if they will reject the pill as well.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...and-it-could-happen-before-christmas-12487030

They won’t reject the pill, I’ve met a whole bunch of these nutters and I always ask them, what they do when they get a headache, or if they get prescribed medication at the doctors. They all say “well yeah I take medication”.
These vaccine cause autism feck wits have caused so much damage.
 
@Regulus Arcturus Black you’re entitled to your opinion, so fine. But the condescending and rude nature of your posts is a bit odd. Not to mention, you’re acting like your theory is proven in fact (it isn’t) and that the “other similar” European countries to Sweden you list (they aren’t) somehow factually validate your claim. It’s just a bizarre way to act. Whilst all the while using one post from one person 10 times to somehow try and push the point that many people on here love lockdowns. It’s just odd behaviour. And it’s no wonder why it doesn’t appear many want to give you the time of day for a proper debate.
 
@Regulus Arcturus Black you’re entitled to your opinion, so fine. But the condescending and rude nature of your posts is a bit odd. Not to mention, you’re acting like your theory is proven in fact (it isn’t) and that the “other similar” European countries to Sweden you list (they aren’t) somehow factually validate your claim. It’s just a bizarre way to act. Whilst all the while using one post from one person 10 times to somehow try and push the point that many people on here love lockdowns. It’s just odd behaviour. And it’s no wonder why it doesn’t appear many want to give you the time of day for a proper debate.

Well said. I gave up on him ages ago.
 
@Regulus Arcturus Black you’re entitled to your opinion, so fine. But the condescending and rude nature of your posts is a bit odd. Not to mention, you’re acting like your theory is proven in fact (it isn’t) and that the “other similar” European countries to Sweden you list (they aren’t) somehow factually validate your claim. It’s just a bizarre way to act. Whilst all the while using one post from one person 10 times to somehow try and push the point that many people on here love lockdowns. It’s just odd behaviour. And it’s no wonder why it doesn’t appear many want to give you the time of day for a proper debate.

I think some of you are lockdown nutters and would mask up and go in and out lockdown for eternity, with no consideration given to the effects of that, let’s put that out there first.
I’ve had to deal with all sorts of bollocks in this thread from last year, when no-one wanted any debate. Lockdowns were good, I was a moron etc. And the countries I listed were all proof of this because their stats last Summer were so much better, no-one wanted to listen when I said let’s wait 18 months and see.
Arruda shut down one debate in May, showing Portugal to be so much better than Sweden (with so many less deaths) with a post saying the Swedish experts were morons, look at the two countries death toll and signed off with a rude as feck “I told you so”.
I said then, as I say now, it’s way way way more nuanced than that, and the champagne cork effect the experts here predicted, absolutely have come to pass in these European countries with similar populations (yes, that’s absolutely what they are).
So for all the Mourinho memes, and the rude as feck responses to any nuanced debate I wanted last year, I’m not really arsed that no-one wants to debate, they didn’t then, they certainly won’t now when so many have been proven categorically wrong, because as it turns out, yes, it’s way more nuanced than simply “lockdowns good, save lives”.
 
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I think some of you are lockdown nutters and would mask up and lockdown for eternity, let’s put that out there first.
I’ve had to deal with all sorts of bollocks in this thread from last year, when no-one wanted any debate. Lockdowns were good, I was a moron etc. And the countries I listed were all proof of this because their stats last Summer were so much better, no-one wanted to listen when I said let’s wait 18 months and see.
I said then, as I say now, it’s way way way more nuanced than that, and the champagne cork effect the experts here predicted, absolutely have come to pass in these European countries with similar populations (yes, that’s absolutely what they are).
So for all the Mourinho memes, and the rude as feck responses to any nuanced debate I wanted last year, I’m not really arsed that no-one wants to debate, they didn’t then, they certainly won’t now when so many have been proven categorically wrong, because as it turns out, yes, it’s way more nuanced than simply “lockdowns good, save lives”.
Well at least you’re transparent about your agenda … I’ll give you that.
 
Only issue I have is why restrictions on those who choose not to get vaccinated are seen by some as beyond the pale but restrictions on everyone, in part because of those refusing to vaccinate, is something some people are okay with.

The response to latest moves on the continent on social media met with horror by people who aren’t covid deniers, openly calling for further lockdowns for everyone.