SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

ExoduS said:
All I got to say, get an effing vaccine. I took a vaccine, my wife - the naturalist - did not. She is now considerably sick, and I am fine. I am not without symptoms as I have a scratchy throat but she is 18 hours in bed during the day with fewer, chills and an ugly cough. I hope it doesn't spread to her lungs... As a passive wimp I was, now I have to sh1t my pants every day that her condition will get worse, instead of really going hard on her to get a vaccine.

My friend lost his mother, only 62. Healthy woman, normal weight...

I have to say I was skeptical a bit about vaccines at the beginning but once few coworkers got it and they were fine I just did it as well. This thing is tricky and there is no way knowing what kind of illness you gonna get if you are not vaccinated, it might be your last illness.
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hope everything turns out fine for your wife and yourself! And yes, vaccination benefits outweigh risks by far compared with covid and its risks.
Cases have really been skyrocketing here and seem to be a lot higher and closer to my family and I than last year. All of them double or triple vaccinated around 30 years old. Unfortunately I will have to attend some business soon which will involve traveling (not international), which kind of sucks. It’s not postponable so I am pissed about it. I was kind of getting used to the lax summer lifestyle but I am now a lot more worried than I was during the earlier stages of the pandemic.
 
TheReligion said:
So is the latest from South Africa that those becoming seriously unwell are in the lower age bracket and not fully vaccinated?

Surely that's a good thing as it shows the vaccine is reducing the severity of illness and possibly it's transmission?
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Too early to tell. The variant only just started spreading, and it started in younger people. Further, vaccination rates are relatively low (25%). It’s holiday season here in about two weeks, so the real world data will be out soon.
 
berbatrick said:
@jojojo @Pogue Mahone

Is there data on heart risk from the booster? I'm eligible now since I'm teaching in January, and only Moderna is available, and I know it has higher risk than Pfizer.
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I’ve read nothing about myocarditis risk with boosters. I do know that a single dose or wider spacing was seen as a way to reduce risk when vaccinating younger kids. So a single dose 6 months after your last one has to be about as safe as possible.

There’s also been very little talk about it over the last month or so despite loads of countries vaccinating kids. Which is where you would expect the most issues. So that’s reassuring too.
 
@berbatrick

The Moderna booster is half their normal standard dose which brings the quantity of active ingredients (the mRNA) down to a similar sort of amount to what you get in a Pfizer shot.

In theory (and in their booster trial) the reduced dosage does reduce the number of side effects, but I don't think there have yet been enough Moderna boosters used anywhere in the world to give the myocarditis incidence rates per million for different age groups etc.

With the standard Moderna - 2 x full dose - the risks are low if you're over 30. If you're under 30 the risks are higher but the risk of myocarditis following covid are still worse than the risks following vaccination.
 
TheReligion said:
So is the latest from South Africa that those becoming seriously unwell are in the lower age bracket and not fully vaccinated?

Surely that's a good thing as it shows the vaccine is reducing the severity of illness and possibly it's transmission?
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It's too early for us to say much. The cases so far are mostly in the under 25s and mostly mild to moderate. We've also heard of fully vaccinated cases with zero to mild symptoms.

But that may just be because of who's currently catching covid. It's spreading fastest in the under 30s in SA and they only occasionally end up in hospital. It won't be until we hear what happens if it spreads into the over 40s and the people with other risk factors that we'll know how severe it really is and how well the vaccines are doing.

The thread below links to some of the most up to date SA data. Incidentally, SA are very open with their data - and they must already feel like they're being punished for being honest.

 
jojojo said:
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It’s a really important point. Israel Chief Medical Officer has just said there are no severe cases within fully vaccinated people - the cases are very mild - hopefully that holds up but it’s far too soon to know. I think what is looking likely is the vaccine efficacy at stopping infection is going to be low which just confirms what most of us knew - this thing is endemic. Boosters for everyone before a tweaked 4th shot comes online next May would be my guess.
 
Mickeza said:
It’s a really important point. Israel Chief Medical Officer has just said there are no severe cases within fully vaccinated people - the cases are very mild - hopefully that holds up but it’s far too soon to know. I think what is looking likely is the vaccine efficacy at stopping infection is going to be low which just confirms what most of us knew - this thing is endemic. Boosters for everyone before a tweaked 4th shot comes online next May would be my guess.
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Agree about endemic.

Time will tell if we will need a tweaked 4th shot. But it's a good guess if not this then another variant will need a tweaked booster.
 
Shakesey said:
Are you suggesting what I think you're suggesting?
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I am not really suggesting anything, but trying to understand the science behind this and how the numbers can jump up so much.
Panic has hit a lot of people here in South Africa, talks and government suggestions about harder lockdowns, no interprovincial travel, total ban on alcohol ( Bottle stores here are been overrun and stocks are running out ),
Increasing the curfew etc.
The holiday season is almost upon us, and a lot of people have made Festive Season plans.
I own a restaurant and am dreading this new 4th wave lockdown coming, December is always my best business month of the year, and last years lockdown, imposed from just before Christmas, was terrible for business.
 
I'm still struggling with this business of the Netherlands picking up 61 positive PCR tests from 600 people arriving on two flights from SA.

If there's no special reason why those flights were particularly likely to be carrying infected people then you have to wonder just how many cases are already in Europe and what the actual infection rate is in SA. I'm hoping that there's a logical explanation - a big party they all went to or something, otherwise it's a really weird sample or demonstrates a shockingly high prevalence.

Incidentally they've already confirmed by sequencing that 13 of the positive cases are omicron. I don't think they've finished sequencing all 61 cases though.



I did wonder why people just got waved through at Heathrow (without so much as a LFT). Unless there is something quirky about those Schiphol flights, that's a lot of people who are going home (by what transport?) and will test positive in a couple of days. It also begs the question of why the idea of "on the day" pre-flight LFTs got dropped. How many people on those Amsterdam flights got infected during their flight?
 
jojojo said:
I'm still struggling with this business of the Netherlands picking up 61 positive PCR tests from 600 people arriving on two flights from SA.

If there's no special reason why those flights were particularly likely to be carrying infected people then you have to wonder just how many cases are already in Europe and what the actual infection rate is in SA. I'm hoping that there's a logical explanation - a big party they all went to or something, otherwise it's a really weird sample or demonstrates a shockingly high prevalence.

Incidentally they've already confirmed by sequencing that 13 of the positive cases are omicron. I don't think they've finished sequencing all 61 cases though.



I did wonder why people just got waved through at Heathrow (without so much as a LFT). Unless there is something quirky about those Schiphol flights, that's a lot of people who are going home (by what transport?) and will test positive in a couple of days. It also begs the question of why the idea of "on the day" pre-flight LFTs got dropped. How many people on those Amsterdam flights got infected during their flight?
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Let me channel my inner @Wibble and mention a meaningless anecdote about a thing that happened near me. There were 26 positives from 157 passengers on a flight from Skopje to Turku in Aug 2020, so even before Alfa. I wouldn't put any merit on stats about couple of flights. As you said, can be a party or tour group or whatever.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Only discovered this morning that 95% of South Africa’s population is < 65! That’s going to make it very difficult to get a handle on severity in elderly/vulnerable patients.
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I thought we spoke about this a long time ago, as to why Africa as a continent was far less effected and likely to ever be effected by Covid like “The West”.
Very few oldies.
 
massi83 said:
Let me channel my inner @Wibble and mention a meaningless anecdote about a thing that happened near me. There were 26 positives from 157 passengers on a flight from Skopje to Turku in Aug 2020, so even before Alfa. I wouldn't put any merit on stats about couple of flights. As you said, can be a party or tour group or whatever.
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I'm hoping to hear that there was a block booking of cruise ship passengers or something similar to account for the high case rate. In which case the world gets a great case study of infection in vaccinated people very quickly and without some of the implications of that being a genuinely random sample. Optimist goggles engaged.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
I thought we spoke about this a long time ago, as to why Africa as a continent was far less effected and likely to ever be effected by Covid like “The West”.
Very few oldies.
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Yeah, I know. India and Brazil too. Didn’t realise quite how few oldies they have though. All of which means there’s not much reassurance to be had from their ICUs not being slammed yet.
 
They announced the change in PCR rules as my girlfriend was literally on a plane to Sierra Leone for a funeral. She was planning on getting a train back from the airport in 2 weeks. No idea what the plan is now that she has to isolate pending PCR result
 
jojojo said:
I'm hoping to hear that there was a block booking of cruise ship passengers or something similar to account for the high case rate. In which case the world gets a great case study of infection in vaccinated people very quickly and without some of the implications of that being a genuinely random sample. Optimist goggles engaged.
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25% vaccination rate in South Africa. Wonder how many vaccinated on that flight?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
25% vaccination rate in South Africa. Wonder how many vaccinated on that flight?
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Apparently the fully vaccinated passengers could travel on those planes with no pre-flight test, the unvaxxed needed a pre-flight test. I guess we're all waiting now for what Netherlands tell us about the details really.

If it is something like a cruise ship group disproportionately involved in the positive tests then the chances are they'd have had to show they were double vaccinated to the tour company as well. Pure speculation of course, more an attempt to get something positive out the scenario than anything else :wenger:
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Only discovered this morning that 95% of South Africa’s population is < 65! That’s going to make it very difficult to get a handle on severity in elderly/vulnerable patients.
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To make it worse, many of those < 65 are immunocompromised, public healthcare is absolutely terrible (private is world class) and vaccination rates are low. So there may be a relatively high mortality rate for the population which will cause even more panic.
 
Marzo said:
I am not really suggesting anything, but trying to understand the science behind this and how the numbers can jump up so much.
Panic has hit a lot of people here in South Africa, talks and government suggestions about harder lockdowns, no interprovincial travel, total ban on alcohol ( Bottle stores here are been overrun and stocks are running out ),
Increasing the curfew etc.
The holiday season is almost upon us, and a lot of people have made Festive Season plans.
I own a restaurant and am dreading this new 4th wave lockdown coming, December is always my best business month of the year, and last years lockdown, imposed from just before Christmas, was terrible for business.
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Ah, sorry. From your other post it almost sounded as if you were suggesting that the government and media were in on some kind of giant conspiracy. I dread speaking to one of my friends later tonight, because he's been harping on about this "December 2-5 4th wave prediction". I'm also South African. Science can seem like magic. It just goes to show how this virus (waves, etc) is actually very predictable if you have the data and the knowledge on how to apply it.

Tonight Ramaphosa will probably push us up a level or two, but I don't think he's going to stop interprovincial travel. Your restaurant and our country will be hit with an alcohol ban (surely not tonight...?), but I hope/think it will be a more lucrative December for you this time around. Beaches? I really don't think they'll close beaches again for such a prolonged period, but definitely for those busy December/January days .

The country depends on tourism, and with international flights off the cards I really can't see Cyril twisting the knife even further by killing the holiday for everyone.

And yes, the numbers are growing very quickly. My guess is it's happening in pockets, not across the board. And if Omicron is more contagious then the growing numbers shouldn't come as a surprise.

Good luck buddy. We're all in this together.
 
Hope its okey to Ask here. I am flying to Manchester from Sweden on this friday to watch the Palace game. I am flying home on sunday after the match.

I am reading now that i need to do a PCR test and wait for the testresult in isolation. So how fast does the result come? If i take the test on saturday, can i even watch the game on sunday?
 
BootsyCollins said:
Hope its okey to Ask here. I am flying to Manchester from Sweden on this friday to watch the Palace game. I am flying home on sunday after the match.

I am reading now that i need to do a PCR test and wait for the testresult in isolation. So how fast does the result come? If i take the test on saturday, can i even watch the game on sunday?
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I had a PCR test on Friday result came back 24 hrs later to within the hour. Guy said most do but, and you don't want to here this, but he also said ring the number on the back of the form if you haven't heard back in three days.

Its a gamble I'm afraid.
 
BootsyCollins said:
Hope its okey to Ask here. I am flying to Manchester from Sweden on this friday to watch the Palace game. I am flying home on sunday after the match.

I am reading now that i need to do a PCR test and wait for the testresult in isolation. So how fast does the result come? If i take the test on saturday, can i even watch the game on sunday?
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There are 3 hour PCR tests available but they're not yet setup for the Day 2 arrivals system. Its also not clear what self isolate will mean either. You're going to have to wait a few days for testing companies to get their offers sorted out.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
I had a PCR test on Friday result came back 24 hrs later to within the hour. Guy said most do but, and you don't want to here this, but he also said ring the number on the back of the form if you haven't heard back in three days.

Its a gamble I'm afraid.
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11101 said:
There are 3 hour PCR tests available but they're not yet setup for the Day 2 arrivals system. Its also not clear what self isolate will mean either. You're going to have to wait a few days for testing companies to get their offers sorted out.
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Thanks both of you. I will wait a couple of days to see if there is any new information and if its not possible to get it faster than 24h i probably cancel the trip:(
 
BootsyCollins said:
Hope its okey to Ask here. I am flying to Manchester from Sweden on this friday to watch the Palace game. I am flying home on sunday after the match.

I am reading now that i need to do a PCR test and wait for the testresult in isolation. So how fast does the result come? If i take the test on saturday, can i even watch the game on sunday?
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Most of the private companies are returning results too slowly to guarantee it. If you do it on Friday, on arrival at the airport (pre-book a walk-in appointment) you might be able to get a "quick" turnround time version of the 2 day test though. Quick in this context at Manchester airport means they say they'll give you the result next day, I've no idea how reliable those services are though. It might be ok - because it's not peak season. It might fail completely - because we've just switched from most people needing LFTs back to PCRs again so the capacity may not be there.

Sorry.
 
jojojo said:
Most of the private companies are returning results too slowly to guarantee it. If you do it on Friday, on arrival at the airport (pre-book a walk-in appointment) you might be able to get a "quick" turnround time version of the 2 day test though. Quick in this context at Manchester airport means they say they'll give you the result next day, I've no idea how reliable those services are though. It might be ok - because it's not peak season. It might fail completely - because we've just switched from most people needing LFTs back to PCRs again so the capacity may not be there.

Sorry.
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Thanks. Will wait and see if its possible for faster results and if its not i will cancel. Fecking sucks, first trip in years and timed it perfectly with the new variant:rolleyes:
 
Got my booster today. Haven’t died yet, though I did get slightly dizzy head for a minute in the recovery area. Grand now
 
So I got over a bout of Covid a little under 2 months ago - anyone know when I should/could get my booster? (UK).

I had my second AZ jab in mid May but not sure if any natural antibodies would stop me from getting the booster - I'm not eligible yet for it but expect the gov to widen the age ranges soon.
 
groovyalbert said:
So I got over a bout of Covid a little under 2 months ago - anyone know when I should/could get my booster? (UK).

I had my second AZ jab in mid May but not sure if any natural antibodies would stop me from getting the booster - I'm not eligible yet for it but expect the gov to widen the age ranges soon.
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When I looked on the NHS last week it told me 6 months after the 2nd jab but also I had to wait 28 days since I tested positive - that works out exactly the same for me oddly enough.
 
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