SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

golden_blunder said:
I hope it’s named something as I’m getting lost in all these variant numbers
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I’ve heard on WHO video it gets a Greek name once classed as variant of interest or concern. Also lots of people calling it “Nu” variant don’t know if it’s just new in South African accent or the Greek name.
 
Ferguson’s Hairdryer said:
I’ve heard on WHO video it gets a Greek name once classed as variant of interest or concern. Also lots of people calling it “Nu” variant don’t know if it’s just new in South African accent or the Greek name.
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“Nu” will be the greek name if gets officially categorised as a Variant Of Concern (VOC) which seems inevitable.
 
Withnail said:
So he's posting a load of concerning information re the new variant and vaccine efficacy and then three tweets later oh by the way we don't know if these people even have symptoms.
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Well yeah. It's concerning information with a very important caveat. Maybe he should've lead with it but at least he included it.
 
Ekkie Thump said:

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It is just worth noting that we really don't know how worried to be. There are massive causes for concern because of the quantity and the nature of the mutations but not all mutations work out as destructive as they look.

The UK for example has been monitoring a delta mutation AY42 which looks to have a transmission advantage over the original delta, that is to say: the proportion of delta cases with mutation is growing. However the React-1 study that tracks cases in more detail is seeing more cases with mild symptoms and fewer severe/hospitalised cases. That's also still seen as early data, despite the fact that tens of thousands of cases are involved - because you need a lot of cases to see real patterns in hospitalisations, particularly among younger age groups.

It's right to be concerned, it's wrong to assume worst case. I'm particularly worried that assuming the worst will become another reason for vaccine hesitancy, or delaying boosters because people get trapped in a mindset of "none of them work" or talk about "waiting for a better one". That kind of thinking could kill hundreds of thousands this winter for no gain at all.
 
Shakesey said:
So, why is South Africa a hotspot for mutations? First Beta, then another in August and now this one. Is it just random?
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It's likely Africa in general because they have low vaccination rates.
 
A word from Pfizer who have been developing alpha and delta targetted vaccines. Basically they're going to to send those out for clinical trials to check their process for developing modified vaccines (even though we didn't actually need them for Alpha and Delta).

They believe they can go from target identified to vaccine doses available in under 4 months if they have to.

 
jojojo said:
It is just worth noting that we really don't know how worried to be. There are massive causes for concern because of the quantity and the nature of the mutations but not all mutations work out as destructive as they look.

The UK for example has been monitoring a delta mutation AY42 which looks to have a transmission advantage over the original delta, that is to say: the proportion of delta cases with mutation is growing. However the React-1 study that tracks cases in more detail is seeing more cases with mild symptoms and fewer severe/hospitalised cases. That's also still seen as early data, despite the fact that tens of thousands of cases are involved - because you need a lot of cases to see real patterns in hospitalisations, particularly among younger age groups.

It's right to be concerned, it's wrong to assume worst case. I'm particularly worried that assuming the worst will become another reason for vaccine hesitancy, or delaying boosters because people get trapped in a mindset of "none of them work" or talk about "waiting for a better one". That kind of thinking could kill hundreds of thousands this winter for no gain at all.
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You're absolutely right of course. Data on outcomes needs to come out as fast as possible to make any determination on that (probably a couple of weeks?), but it's still worth noting (and emphasising) that this strain appears to be able to evade multiple vaccines enough to infect the vaccinated. This was previously unknown given the low vaccination numbers in South Africa.
 
kps88 said:
It's likely Africa in general because they have low vaccination rates.
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South Africa is far more widely connected to the world than most of Africa, though, and has two major global cities in Jo'Burg and Cape Town. It's also, despite all the poverty, the most industrialised and advanced country in Africa. It's a weird mix of global interconnectivity, good infrastructure, densely populated cities, wealth, and extreme poverty combined with low vaccine rates, a bit like India, actually, where Delta came from.
 
F-Red said:
Where have I failed to acknowledge risk? I've stated already that this will run like wildfire and I'm pretty much on the camp of lets see what comes back from the experts. What we've seen in this thread over the past couple of years is the hysteria around any new variant (Brazilian, South African etc), only for it to die down once the vaccines come back as being effective. If there's anything to levy then I'm probably putting confidence in the science/vaccines that will solve this. Given their track record, why wouldn't we be confident?
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I’ve generally stayed out of this thread so apologies if I’ve misunderstood. I think it’s normal for people to be concerned. Covid impacts us all in different ways, some far more significantly than others for a huge variety of reasons, so personally I think it’s better to stay away from judging people based on their level of hysteria when potentially negative news comes out.

I would say two things though. One is that scientifically this variant presents more risks vs current vaccines than others. Let’s not forget also that Delta did have a significant impact, just thankfully not on the vaccine.

Second is that I don’t think anyone, but certainly not me, are questioning what science and vaccines can achieve. I’m very confident that any variant will eventually be mitigated by vaccination. The issue here is more about timing. If our current vaccine isn’t as effective against this new variant, it will take time to update our vaccination. The issue is what happens in that time frame. Not that I think it’ll never be mitigated.
 
Shakesey said:
If that's the case then why didn't the virus mutate more in the first wave when no-one was vaccinated?
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It did we just didn't know as much at first. The European variant that caused most of the first wave has only small differences to the Wuhan original, but it was different. Alpha and beta emerged in the following 6 months.
 
jojojo said:
It did we just didn't know as much at first. The European variant that caused most of the first wave has only small differences to the Wuhan original, but it was different. Alpha and beta emerged in the following 6 months.
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Do you think it's strange that two of the four biggest mutations originated in SA? Or is it just bad luck?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Well he didn’t have to mention symptoms if he just wanted to worry people.
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Maybe he didn't do it on purpose and you're right he didn't have to put the caveat in if he was just on a wind up but going in heavy on the twice vaccinated + boosters and still caught it vibe when we know this is possible anyway and we've no idea if these people are sick was a little sensationalist.
 
" A South African patient with uncontrolled HIV could not clear the virus that caused Covid-19 from her body for 216 days, researchers have found. Over that time the virus, SARS-CoV-2, mutated a lot. " - July 2021

Being immunocompromised, as many South Africans are, spells trouble for everyone. Especially since those who are compromised generally come from countries with low vaccination rates.
 
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Shakesey said:
If that's the case then why didn't the virus mutate more in the first wave when no-one was vaccinated?
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Lots of immunocompromised people (HIV & poverty), low vaccine rate, lots who were vaccinated got a sub-optimal vaccine, incompetent government. It all adds up. Plus, South Africa variant is unlikely to be South Africa variant. It will probably be Africa variant that was first picked up in South Africa.

I feel like we have been here before though. We don't know if it evades vaccines, we don't know if its more deadly, we don't know if its more transmissible. Let's find out before the whole world shits itself.
 
Shakesey said:
Do you think it's strange that two of the four biggest mutations originated in SA? Or is it just bad luck?
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SA is strong on sequencing and information sharing. It's quite possible they're effectively the lens through which we see large parts of Africa. Low vaccination rates make the whole of Africa vulnerable.

There's also a wild card in the SA story which comes from the high HIV+ rates in the adult population. There's a view that variants showing multiple simultaneous mutations occur in single individuals who are struggling to fight off the disease effectively ending up with multiple reinfections. That could mean someone severely immune compromised (on a HIV drug regime that isn't working for example) or someone going through multiple failed treatments in hospital or elsewhere.
 
Shakesey said:
" A South African patient with uncontrolled HIV could not clear the virus that caused Covid-19 from her body for 216 days, researchers have found. Over that time the virus, SARS-CoV-2, mutated a lot. " - July 2021

Being immunocompromised, as many South Africans are, spells trouble for everyone. Especially since those who are compromised generally come from countries with low vaccination rates.
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I’m not sure that last bit necessarily true. Certainly wealthy countries are better able to keep severely immune compromised patients alive for a very long time, after they catch covid. Which can generate loads of mutations in the virus. The use of expensive monoclonal antibodies as treatments (not available in underfunded health services) is supposed to accelerate this process. Which is thought to be how the alpha variant came about, in the UK.
 
jojojo said:
It is just worth noting that we really don't know how worried to be. There are massive causes for concern because of the quantity and the nature of the mutations but not all mutations work out as destructive as they look.

The UK for example has been monitoring a delta mutation AY42 which looks to have a transmission advantage over the original delta, that is to say: the proportion of delta cases with mutation is growing. However the React-1 study that tracks cases in more detail is seeing more cases with mild symptoms and fewer severe/hospitalised cases. That's also still seen as early data, despite the fact that tens of thousands of cases are involved - because you need a lot of cases to see real patterns in hospitalisations, particularly among younger age groups.

It's right to be concerned, it's wrong to assume worst case. I'm particularly worried that assuming the worst will become another reason for vaccine hesitancy, or delaying boosters because people get trapped in a mindset of "none of them work" or talk about "waiting for a better one". That kind of thinking could kill hundreds of thousands this winter for no gain at all.
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I’m still clinging to the possibility that we get a variant soon (possibly this one?) which is a lot more transmissible than delta but causes much less severe disease. That could de-fang the virus even more effectively than vaccinations.
 
We are supposed to be flying to Mexico on Tuesday, for a holiday that's been deferred from 2019. Obviously there are WAY bigger things at stake here than me and my desire for sun and drinks with tiny umbrellas and tequila in them, but I'm already preparing myself for the inevitable travel lockdown gutpunch. Probably on Tuesday morning.
 
Genuinely fascinating and encouraging commentary on why we shouldn't panic just yet and in particular why a PCR test on a vaccinated individual showing that they're infected shouldn't scare the rest of us into thinking that the vaccines have stopped working.

One for people who would like a bit of hope along with the doom and gloom.

 
Pogue Mahone said:
I’m not sure that last bit necessarily true. Certainly wealthy countries are better able to keep severely immune compromised patients alive for a very long time, after they catch covid. Which can generate loads of mutations in the virus. The use of expensive monoclonal antibodies as treatments (not available in underfunded health services) is supposed to accelerate this process. Which is thought to be how the alpha variant came about, in the UK.
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South Africa has a low vaccination rate and is home to 20% of ALL HIV cases in the world. So, the virus ought to have more time to mutate.

Are you sure about that bolded part? SA has fairly decent healthcare.

* In fact, let me edit my response: The virus can mutate in asymptomatic cases, as you know. So, keeping immunocompromised patients alive longer in a hospital is surely irrelevant.
 
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Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Tell you what would have been a novel idea, spend some of those utter insane lockdown costs that have ran into the hundreds of billions and the past two years on actually improving hospitals, building new ones, training new nurses and hugely increasing pay in the health sector.
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A lockdown can be imposed in a day. Hospitals take time to build, even more time to equip, and potentially years to staff. It's not a 1-1 tradeoff.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Probably is everywhere already.
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A report I read from South Africa stated that it's very easily detectable in routine, unmodified PCR screens (because it is slightly shorter than other variants, and that shows up as a slightly differently sized band). So, unless nobody is looking too closely at PCR results outside SA, it wouldn't have gone undetected.
 
Shakesey said:
South Africa has a low vaccination rate and is home to 20% of ALL HIV cases in the world. So, the virus ought to have more time to mutate.

Are you sure about that bolded part? SA has fairly decent healthcare.

* In fact, let me edit my response: The virus can mutate in asymptomatic cases, as you know. So, keeping immunocompromised patients alive longer in a hospital is surely irrelevant.
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The point is that if you’re severely immune compromised and you catch covid you’re probably going to die very quickly. Which is also the end of the virus.

In terms of generating variants the worst case scenario is a severely ill immune compromised patient being kept alive in ICU by administering a bunch of very expensive and not very widely available medicines such as monoclonal antibodies over a long period of time. So the virus is continually replicating for months and months in a scenario where there is a constant selective pressure on it to evolve to evade these antibodies.

Now, obviously, South Africa is a diverse country. With some extremely well equipped hospitals. But I don’t think the scenario I describe above will happen in much greater numbers there than in other more wealthy countries. Even though the AIDS epidemic creates a lot of immune suppressed people (predominantly amongst the poorer members of South African society)

In more general terms, the more people catch covid the more likely a variant. So countries with the biggest surges are the most likely to produce them. Hence Brazil, South Africa and India have produced three VOC’s already (arguably same applies to the UK and alpha).
 
Pogue Mahone said:
The point is that if you’re severely immune compromised and you catch covid you’re probably going to die very quickly. Which is also the end of the virus.

In terms of generating variants the worst case scenario is a severely ill immune compromised patient being kept alive in ICU by administering a bunch of very expensive and not very widely available medicines such as monoclonal antibodies over a long period of time. So the virus is continually replicating for months and months in a scenario where there is a constant selective pressure on it to evolve to evade these antibodies.

Now, obviously, South Africa is a diverse country. With some extremely well equipped hospitals. But I don’t think the scenario I describe above will happen in much greater numbers there than in other more wealthy countries. Even though the AIDS epidemic creates a lot of immune suppressed people (predominantly amongst the poorer members of South African society)

In more general terms, the more people catch covid the more likely a variant. So countries with the biggest surges are the most likely to produce them. Hence Brazil, South Africa and India have produced three VOC’s already (arguably same applies to the UK and alpha).
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For sure, severe immune compromised people will die faster from Covid in developing countries.

The problem arises when those who are not *severely compromised become incubators for the virus. The woman in the linked article tested positive 216 times, for goodness sake. SA is a hotbed for mutations.

* Are all HIV patients "severely compromised"? I don't know. But my point stands.
 
Italy's stopping the opportunity for unvaccinated people to get a temporary Green Pass by having a negative test.

A government decree that comes into force from December 6th will require a ‘super green pass’ health certificate to access most venues and services across the country, in a bid to contain Italy’s rising infection rate and ensure Christmas celebrations can go ahead as planned.

The ‘super green pass’ can be obtained only by those who are vaccinated against or have recovered from Covid-19.

It supersedes the basic ‘green pass’, which was also available to those who had recently tested negative for the virus; though the basic green pass will still be valid for use on public transport and to access workplaces.
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https://www.thelocal.it/20211125/it...new_covid_strain_detected&utm_term=2021-11-26
 
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