Holy shit. That seems insanely low. Is this because most of them are young children?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Holy shit. That seems insanely low. Is this because most of them are young children?
High schoolers, so 14-18.
I told you, people are simply choosing to not get vaccinated. Only 41% of people in South Carolina are vaccinated and I live & work in one of the politically reddest (and right wing libertarian) parts of it.
Jesus. That 41% figure is shocking. I heard a doc recently talk about “reverse herd immunity”. The idea of herd immunity is that you vaccinate enough people that they protect those who can’t/won’t take a vaccine. So you can indirectly affect the health of others (positively) by taking a vaccine. The flipside would be unvaccinated people keeping the virus so prevalent in the community that they end up affecting the health of the vaccinated (negatively)
And it isn’t because the vaccine isn’t readily available and isn’t because it isn’t free.
The UK stats are interesting on this. Hospitalisations amongst children rising as Delta cases rise, both numerically and as a percentage of total hospitalisations.
but hospitalisations v case rate not changing much.
Again it emphasizes that the vaccines are working in the older age groups. But anyone unvaccinated, including kids, are still at risk - and perhaps higher risk than ever because case rates in those groups are higher than ever.
Yep. But you try and tell these vaccine refusers that and they’ll laugh at you, tell you to do your own research, and call you a sheep.
“the media is inventing these variants”
— No you moron, you are.
I had to tell a guy who’s currently a history phd candidate yesterday that “this isn’t the fecking flu. My wife intubated 2 people under 30 who had no preexisting conditions” — “oh, well, uh…”
Got my best mate's wedding on Monday and one of the groomsmen has just tested positive. I'm best man so I've decided to essentially isolate now until the day.
Proper shit because people are missing once in a lifetime stuff, but what can you do. There will be elderly people there and one of the other groomsmen's wife is heavily pregnant so I'm glad everyone is being sensible.
Proper shit because people are missing once in a lifetime stuff, but what can you do. There will be elderly people there and one of the other groomsmen's wife is heavily pregnant so I'm glad everyone is being sensible.
The UK stats are interesting on this. Hospitalisations amongst children rising as Delta cases rise, both numerically and as a percentage of total hospitalisations.
but hospitalisations v case rate not changing much.
Again it emphasizes that the vaccines are working in the older age groups. But anyone unvaccinated, including kids, are still at risk - and perhaps higher risk than ever because case rates in those groups are higher than ever.
Interesting data and thankfully seems to have peaked (presumably the impact of school summer holidays)
Although it would certainly support vaccinating the 12-18 y.o’s during the school holidays (which is starting in Ireland this weekend) Health risks aside, the disruption to education at secondary schools could be a nightmare if community transmission is this high (or higher) in September and none of the kids are vaccinated.
The fact this has already been done on a large scale in Israel/US etc gives a bit of extra reassurance too. I wonder if the JCVI might change its stance?
Thanks
I hope the come through okay
I don't see much news about reinfection but this is a pretty horrible story: Chester City FC manager had the virus in November 2020 with mild symptoms and now has had it again less than a year later and has been fighting for his life. The guy is unvaccinated.
https://www.cheshire-live.co.uk/news/chester-cheshire-news/chester-fc-boss-had-shocked-21276264
Even without the vaccine I assumed natural antibodies lasted a bit longer than 9-10 months. Was the guy just unlucky (despite not taking the vaccine)?
https://www.cheshire-live.co.uk/news/chester-cheshire-news/chester-fc-boss-had-shocked-21276264
Even without the vaccine I assumed natural antibodies lasted a bit longer than 9-10 months. Was the guy just unlucky (despite not taking the vaccine)?
He's probably had a different variant this time so was still susceptible to it. The vaccines are stronger at protecting against the variants as a whole than the antibody response from getting it for one variant before I think.
It's scary that he's had it twice and the second time has caused him to be fighting for his life.
Since almost everyone above the age of 18 in Norway wants to take the vaccine and because other countries have sent us some of their "leftovers"(because they can't get people to use them), we are several weeks ahead of schedule. In the capital roughly 90% have gotten at least one doze. I reckon more than 90% will be fully vaccinated before the middle of October. Almost everyone on Phizer/Moderna.
It's a shame that the vaccines aren't distributed more fairly on a global scale, but since that is the reality we live in I'm happy to at least see that Norway is doing well and that so few here refuse to take the vaccine.
It's a shame that the vaccines aren't distributed more fairly on a global scale, but since that is the reality we live in I'm happy to at least see that Norway is doing well and that so few here refuse to take the vaccine.
There’s a bit of doubt about how well protected you are after an initial mild illness. Anecdotes like this increase those doubts. You do seem to get better protection with the vaccine than you get after a mild dose of covid.
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Fully vaxxed for a month now
I for am not worried at all. The vaccine has been awesome against hospitalizations and death. That's my primary focus.
Quite the thread there
That breaking point seems to be happening all over.
That breaking point seems to be happening all over.
A wake up call for what? Half the World has been in lockdown for for a large part of the last year, for the first time in history. What the feck is it that we’re need to “wake up” to? The fact that this virus going nowhere? Surely everyone should have known that back in April 2020. As long as the virus is killing at regular upper respiratory virus rates, be delighted we have vaccines and crack the feck on.
Manufacturer of the Russian vaccine trying to throw shade on two mRNA vaccines? Hmmmmm? The cynic in me .......
Sputnic seems to be safe but
I’ve read the full paper now and it is useful data (despite the moronic spin put on the results by the assholes in charge of the sputnik twitter account).
There’s no drop off in efficacy vs serious disease but there does seem to be vs infections. Impossible to know if this drop off is protection waning over time or because of delta.
The fact that protection with serious illness persists fits with circulating antibodies declining (or not reaching levels needed to completely prevent minor illness from delta) but the immune memory (T cells etc) doing its job when it comes to dealing with the infection. The virus gets a foothold but won’t do much harm i.e. vaccines turns covid into minor viral illness. Which is arguably all you need from them.
It makes the whole debate around boosters very interesting. Can we justify using up millions of vaccines to boost circulating antibodies when the people getting injected remain well protected vs serious illness?
There’s no drop off in efficacy vs serious disease but there does seem to be vs infections. Impossible to know if this drop off is protection waning over time or because of delta.
The fact that protection with serious illness persists fits with circulating antibodies declining (or not reaching levels needed to completely prevent minor illness from delta) but the immune memory (T cells etc) doing its job when it comes to dealing with the infection. The virus gets a foothold but won’t do much harm i.e. vaccines turns covid into minor viral illness. Which is arguably all you need from them.
It makes the whole debate around boosters very interesting. Can we justify using up millions of vaccines to boost circulating antibodies when the people getting injected remain well protected vs serious illness?
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So what's the story in the UK now? Did this massive surge and crisis ever happen after freedom day or is it too early to say? Saw a photo of a full o2 with the Gorillaz yesterday and felt very jealous. 70+% of Ireland fully vaccinated and we're still pissing about with whether to allow a band at a wedding or more than 20% stadium capacity, and refusing permission for our biggest outdoor festival.
The protection waning or the Delta variant is one to definitely keep an eye out. It does seem that more countries are reporting ‘similair’ data, in regards to the drop of efficiancy (in regards to systematic illness) against the new variants.
quote:
‘Data published by the Israeli government suggest that the Pfizer BioNTech jab’s efficacy against symptomatic infection fell from 94% to 64% after the delta variant began spreading in the country.4
Figures from Public Health Scotland published in the Lancet also show a drop in protection against symptomatic illness,5 from 92% against the alpha variant, which was first detected in the UK, to 79% against delta among people with two doses of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine. For the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine, the reduction was from 73% to 60%. Data from Canada, yet to be peer reviewed, also show a drop in efficacy.
Source:
https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1960
it’s important to state as well that the article states:
-‘But Riley points out that the PHE data to date are consistent with estimates that suggest—despite these drops in efficacy—vaccines in use in the UK (Pfizer BioNtech, AstraZeneca, and Moderna) all reduce the risk of death by more than 85%, regardless of variant.
1. The data at this point in time suggests that the vaccines reduce the risk of death by more then 85%, which is great.
2. In terms of systematic illness (ranging from mild to severe), there seems to be data to suggest a drop in efficiency against the Delta variant.
3. In terms of transmission, the article states:
‘A recently released report from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that the viral load of vaccinated people infected with the delta variant is similar to that of unvaccinated people.8People remain less likely to become infected in the first place when they have been vaccinated, however.’
Even if the vaccines had no effect at all on transmission their demonstrable effectiveness in terms of protecting against serious disease/death is all the evidence we need to try and make sure as many people as possible are vaccinated. So these data showing “waning” effectiveness are actually showing long term, persistent benefit by the most important metric of all.
That said, they are also being demonstrated to prevent transmission too. Maybe by not as much as we’ve seen against previous variants but still by an impressive amount. Right up there with the best data we’ve ever seen from influenza vaccines. And that’s after a possible reduction in prevention of transmission over time. Which booster doses will reverse, when they’re given to the most vulnerable and most likely to be exposed (HCWs etc).
We're wobbling along on a R=1 cases curve - basically they aren't going up, but they aren't going down either - and we've got a lot of cases, around 25k/day. Hospitalisations and deaths are up, but they aren't as high as some people feared, and nothing like as high as that case rate would have meant before the vaccines.
About 93% of the adult population have antibodies - mostly from vaccination, about 4% just from infection. It's not herd immunity, but combined with people not quite acting like we used to, it's stable for now. But then it is summer, schools and colleges are out, some people are still working from home, lots of events, activities are only just restarting.
The story right now in the UK is get vaccinated or get covid. Not great for people unlucky enough to be part of the group that can't take vaccines, or who get the virus because the vaccines aren't 100%. On the bright side for that vaxxed group, they've still got a good chance of avoiding the worst of the disease even if they do catch it.
As @jojojo said, the big potentially important difference between the Uk and Ireland is how much worse their previous waves were. Which means a lot of the unvaccinated are at least partially immune anyway, having previously been exposed. Similar to the way cases in India have fallen off a cliff despite much lower vaccination rates.
The unvaccinated in Ireland are potentially a lot more vulnerable. Which makes it that bit harder to predict what would happen if we opened up completely. Life is fairly normal now though, right? We’re not missing out on much.
Thanks @jojojo , makes a lot of sense.
That's easy for you to say, you're not a member of Ireland's biggest 90's wedding band! neither am i but whatever
Damn. The white text is disappointing. Was excited about hearing your set list. Any Pearl Jam?
Nah, only the heavy hitters, S Club 7, Sugababes, 5ive etc.
(I was actually at a wedding before where Smash Hits played and it was incredible, never saw so many people go so crazy for such god awful songs!)
There's a lot of debate around that one. Not just the implications of the result, but the possible limitations of the methodology.
They used PCR scans to calculate viral load. PCR scans look for the virus but they continue to see the virus molecules even once they've died or been neutralised by antibiotics - effectively they can see non-infectious virus.
A couple of small scale trials are seeing the actual amount of infectious material reduce faster in the vaccinated. Which is consistent with PHE seeing fewer new cases per infection for vaxxed people - though that's also a calculation fraught with difficulty as vaxxed people often live/work mostly with other vaxxed people.
The basics behind that idea that the repeat PCR tests used in the initial study might not be seeing active virus are summarised in:
Some very good points. Although being a hardcore pedant I can’t let the “neutralised by antibiotics” phrase slide. Antibiotics only work on bacteria. Antivirals kills viruses. Currently none proven to work on covid.
We had Showaddywaddy do a works party a few years back. The place was rocking, people dancing on the chairs, singalong sections, passionate karaoke renditions of "under the moon of love'. The band were old enough to be most of the staff's granddads.
Hopefully they've all been vaxxed before they try anything like that again
We had Showaddywaddy do a works party a few years back. The place was rocking, people dancing on the chairs, singalong sections, passionate karaoke renditions of "under the moon of love'. The band were old enough to be most of the staff's granddads.
Hopefully they've all been vaxxed before they try anything like that again
Yeah if there's one thing I've learnt it's that there's nothing like shitty 80's and 90's music to get a crowd going.Well we’re missing out on the Gorillaz apparently
Their demonstrable effectiveness falls under that first point which i mentioned in regards to it decreasing risk of death by 85%.
Transmission is another factor in itself. Im not disagreeing that they can decrease chances of transmitting. The quote which i presented stated:
'‘But Riley points out that the PHE data to date are consistent with estimates that suggest—despite these drops in efficacy—vaccines in use in the UK (Pfizer BioNtech, AstraZeneca, and Moderna) all reduce the risk of death by more than 85%, regardless of variant.''
Your Quote
'That said, they are also being demonstrated to prevent transmission too. Maybe by not as much as we’ve seen against previous variants but still by an impressive amount.'
Reply
Data published by the Israeli government suggest that the Pfizer BioNTech jab’s efficacy against symptomatic infection fell from 94% to 64% after the delta variant began spreading in the country.4
Figures from Public Health Scotland published in the Lancet also show a drop in protection against symptomatic illness,5 from 92% against the alpha variant, which was first detected in the UK, to 79% against delta among people with two doses of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine. For the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine, the reduction was from 73% to 60%. Data from Canada, yet to be peer reviewed, also show a drop in efficacy.
The point im proposing is that there is observable data to confirm these drops in efficiacy-vaccines specifically in regards to the new variants. That does not negate that the vaccines provide protection.
A Reuters article describes this in the following way:
'Vaccines have been shown to provide good protection against severe disease and death from Delta, especially with two doses, but there is less data on whether vaccinated people can still transmit it to others.
"Some initial findings ... indicate that levels of virus in those who become infected with Delta having already been vaccinated may be similar to levels found in unvaccinated people,"
PHE said in a statement.'
Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/en...r-virus-levels-regardless-vaccine-2021-08-06/
The above quote seems to be in line with the other data which i quoted above.
For dialogue sake, i do have the following question. What is your position on mandatory vaccination? Natural immunity protects those without any health issues with percentages quoted of a 97-99.8% survival rate. Up until the age of 60 the mortality is reported to start from 0.4% up (enfants & 'kids) until 3.6% for the age bracket of 69. Younger people without any health issues are reported to have a survival rate of 99.8%. Statistically the overwhelming majority of corona deaths are elderly people from the age of 70 upwards with a minimum of 1-2 health issues.
The question i propose is as followed. A healthy person with a survival rate of 99.8% has more benefit from his natural immunity or the vaccine? Individually one can statistically provide the argument that natural immunity is his defense, rather then a vaccine. However the argument of doing it for another is also quite often used and this seems to be the underlying theme of many vax vs anti vax discussions. What would your reply be to that?
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My reply is simple. Vaccines provide better (at the very least equivalent, but I’ve seen good data that it’s better) protection than prior infection with much much much much MUCH less risk. Can you imagine the death toll if vaccination had a 99.8% survival rate?!?
To be clear, everyone who doesn’t get vaccinated will definitely catch covid at some point. The combination of delta and incomplete vax uptake makes this inevitable. So the choice is to catch it with or without being vaccinated. Which should be an absolute no-brainer.
Re mandatory vaccination, that depends on your job. I had to get mandatory Hep B vaccination when I worked as a doctor. The same should apply for certain jobs with covid. That’s the one and only scenario where mandatory vaccination is seriously being considered.
The first half of your post is all over the place. I have no idea what point you’re making.
Mandatory? I don't think it should be made mandatory. But business, shops, planes, individuals, government...countries!
They have the right to put their rules in their precincts and if they don't want people to put them at risk. So they have the right to accept people under their conditions if they believe that it risks their health. And that happens in many areas of our like currently. To take a plane you can't bring certain items, you can't go to a roller coaster if you are too short or too tall and heavy, speed limits, etc...Risk of discrimination? This is proofed science and has nothing in beliefs.
You then can choose to not vaccinate, but you have to accept the limitations that might come with it. Of course, exceptions should be made for the ones that can't take it for medical reasons