This is a good/reassuring read from someone who really knows his stuff.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I don't think that graph is all that surprising tbh. It's known the vaccine isn't stopping transmission anyway isn't it?
A couple of interesting bits of info emerging in those threads:
Case rates per 100k adults.
Green - fully vaxxed
Yellow - unvaxxed
One observation that might be of concern for other countries as well is that a lot of the infections are in people who are vaccinated with single dose Janssen. That may be confused by the fact that it's mostly been used with young adults and that's also the group with the highest case rate and number of unvaxxed people. Plus some of them may only be a couple of weeks post-vaccine and there is some evidence that it gets steadily more effective over the next few weeks.
Some early real world data though is suggesting that J&J may be behaving like first dose AZ - rather than a true single dose product. I'm sure a lot of countries are keeping an eye on that, particularly with Delta.
Vaccination started - single dose of a two dose vax.
Yes. This is more data pointing towards that.
Was there a breakdown of vaccinated people by manufacturer somewhere or you deduced it from age profile? I didn't see that on first glance.A couple of interesting bits of info emerging in those threads:
Case rates per 100k adults.
Green - fully vaxxed
Yellow - unvaxxed
One observation that might be of concern for other countries as well is that a lot of the infections are in people who are vaccinated with single dose Janssen. That may be confused by the fact that it's mostly been used with young adults and that's also the group with the highest case rate and number of unvaxxed people. Plus some of them may only be a couple of weeks post-vaccine and there is some evidence that it gets steadily more effective over the next few weeks.
Some early real world data though is suggesting that J&J may be behaving like first dose AZ - rather than a true single dose product. I'm sure a lot of countries are keeping an eye on that, particularly with Delta.
94% of J&J was given over 4 weeks before the wave started so don't think it will get considerably more effective, a bit sure.
Peer reviewed study from India:
Results
Of 3892 employees, 3532 (90.8%) participated in the study. The ivermectin uptake was 62.5% and 5.3% for two doses and single dose, respectively. Participants who took ivermectin prophylaxis had a lower risk of getting symptoms suggestive of SARS-CoV-2 infection (6% vs 15%). HCWs who had taken two doses of oral ivermectin had a significantly lower risk of contracting COVID-19 infection during the following month (ARR 0.17; 95% CI, 0.12-0.23). Females had a lower risk of contracting COVID-19 than males (ARR 0.70; 95% CI, 0.52-0.93). The absolute risk reduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 9.7%. Only 1.8% of the participants reported adverse events, which were mild and self-limiting.
Conclusion
Two doses of oral ivermectin (300 μg/kg/dose given 72 hours apart) as chemoprophylaxis among HCWs reduced the risk of COVID-19 infection by 83% in the following month. Safe, effective, and low-cost chemoprophylaxis has relevance in the containment of pandemic alongside vaccine.
https://www.cureus.com/articles/648...onavirus-2-infection-among-healthcare-workers
Results
Of 3892 employees, 3532 (90.8%) participated in the study. The ivermectin uptake was 62.5% and 5.3% for two doses and single dose, respectively. Participants who took ivermectin prophylaxis had a lower risk of getting symptoms suggestive of SARS-CoV-2 infection (6% vs 15%). HCWs who had taken two doses of oral ivermectin had a significantly lower risk of contracting COVID-19 infection during the following month (ARR 0.17; 95% CI, 0.12-0.23). Females had a lower risk of contracting COVID-19 than males (ARR 0.70; 95% CI, 0.52-0.93). The absolute risk reduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 9.7%. Only 1.8% of the participants reported adverse events, which were mild and self-limiting.
Conclusion
Two doses of oral ivermectin (300 μg/kg/dose given 72 hours apart) as chemoprophylaxis among HCWs reduced the risk of COVID-19 infection by 83% in the following month. Safe, effective, and low-cost chemoprophylaxis has relevance in the containment of pandemic alongside vaccine.
https://www.cureus.com/articles/648...onavirus-2-infection-among-healthcare-workers
It was down in one of the offshoot twitter threads. Looking at the official data I don't see the raw data, so it may have been extrapolated from the fact that the J&J was mostly used in June and mostly among the under 30s. Which is the group where most of the cases are now.
That said, given the very high vaccine takeup in Iceland (over 90% of adults) the raw data is still suggesting that the vaccines are 70% effective against infection and massively effective against hospitalisation and death. However Iceland is small, so the numbers in any particular age/vax status cohort are unlikely to leave you with much statistical certainty. It might feed into a bigger analysis somewhere though. It might even be that Iceland is effectively the first Pfizer v Moderna v AZ v J&J trial we've seen.
Not too often you get to read an article from an expert who doesn’t have an extreme view on either side. Cheers for that, good read.
500k healthcare workers in South Africa were vaccinated with J&J between Feb and May, and we’ve just come out of our third wave.A couple of interesting bits of info emerging in those threads:
Case rates per 100k adults.
Green - fully vaxxed
Yellow - unvaxxed
One observation that might be of concern for other countries as well is that a lot of the infections are in people who are vaccinated with single dose Janssen. That may be confused by the fact that it's mostly been used with young adults and that's also the group with the highest case rate and number of unvaxxed people. Plus some of them may only be a couple of weeks post-vaccine and there is some evidence that it gets steadily more effective over the next few weeks.
Some early real world data though is suggesting that J&J may be behaving like first dose AZ - rather than a true single dose product. I'm sure a lot of countries are keeping an eye on that, particularly with Delta.
I’ll need to dig up the stats, but J&J has found to be about 70% effective against hospitalisation and 95% against death. The numbers are obviously a bit skewed by the fact that the frontline workers are highly exposed to the virus, particularly during a massive wave. Having said that, I think J&J won’t stop infections but should hopefully stop the critical cases. For Africa, two doses is a disaster, so we’ll definitely be forging ahead with the J&J.
Looking at the reports it seems that J&J was very effective preventing hospitalisations and deaths but they don't seem to give any details on transmission along with mild and moderate illness. With the Delta variant one shot of the other vaccines was highly effective in preventing hospitalisations and death but quite a lot less effective when guarding against transmission and mild to moderate illnesses.
Ya, by pure speculation, I would imagine 1 shot of J&J is the most effective 'single shot', but it's less effective than the double shots (well the Western double shots at least).
It’s a bit grim but in countries where one shot is the best/only option a reasonable level of protection against severe illness is probably good enough. If/when a vaccinated person gets a mild/moderate illness that can act as a (probably extremely effective) booster.
Ya, plus there will be surplus vaccines at some point, so those of us who got J&J will probably be able to top it up if we want. Anecdotally, the majority of those who have become infected after receiving J&J have had very mild cases. The one person I know who ended up in ICU is over 60 and has one lung, I'm assuming they would've been a prime candidate for death if they had not received a vaccine.
Where are we with how long vaccinations last, will they become an annual event as the flu vaccine is? and if so how long will our proof of double vaccination last for? Is anyone talking about this at the moment as I can't find much on it, despite my own research which consisted of a half-arsed google search.
As more than 20% of Iceland's population is under 16 that means they have less than 75% of the population vaccinated which is significantly less than the circa 85% we think will be needed to reach HIT. That doesn't mean we will but it certainly doesn't mean that we won't get to the HIT.
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If you’re including everyone from aged zero upwards, there’s not a country on the planet that will vaccinate 85% of its population. 93% aged 16+ is actually pretty exceptional. I would be surprised if any other country does better.
Maybe but we should be aiming for 100% of over 5's (or whatever minimum age the Modena/Pfizer trials show are safe). Governments are such cowards. All vaccines (not just covid) should be mandated with tax/medicare/social security penalties for not complying. If you want to be a selfish and stupid cnut then you should contribute to the cost. School and University enrolments should also be conditional on being fully vaccinated.
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I'm not seeing it. This isn't a polio where a lifetime of (near absolute) protection can be provided as an infant. The vaccines massively reduce the impact of the virus, but they don't stop it and given its global spread (and animal reservoirs) it will stay around.
We may at some point in the future develop that kind of general purpose, sustained protection but right now, no.
I don't see eradication or herd immunity anywhere in the horizon and I certainly don't see it coming at 85% of the population with the existing vaccines, even if we could get there. Vaccinate enough (or infect enough) and we'll have a liveable with endemic disease. I don't want to spend the next ten years chasing a pipedream via border controls and continual law making and offender chasing.
The most important thing here that the media refuses to acknowledge as it creates sensationalist headlines, is that the most important factor to consider is the number of hospitalizations. If those go down then we can officially stop labelling it a pandemic. Taking Ireland's example, we've had around 1700-1800 cases a day for the last 3-4 days, but an increase of around 10-12 hospitalisations a day. So that's approximately one person in every 180 that's getting hospitalised. Depending on the hospital capacities of a particular country, we will see the pandemic end at different times. For instance, for Ireland this number is still of concern, but as an Indian, even 10 times this number a day in India would be considered the end of the pandemic.
Also, as someone who's taken the J&J vaccine, I have to say the data from the South Africa study is quite reassuring.
It's unknown. We know that there are a group of people, taking immune-suppressants or immune compromised in some other way who need a third dose. Not just as a booster but to get the full effect of the vaccine.
There's evidence emerging that a booster dose might help some people deal better with Delta and perhaps other variants as well. Because of that, the UK is preparing to offer boosters to the over 50s in the autumn.
I suspect we will see annual boosters (perhaps targeting new variants more strongly), probably given at the same time as flu jabs - eventually as a single jab with them - in the future, particularly for the older age groups. Whether the rest of the population need them is still an unknown.
The NHS is running various monitoring studies to see what's happening in real life. In particular they have one in healthcare workers who were vaxxed early in the rollout to see if people in that group are getting infected, and what their symptoms are. It's all wait and see at the moment.
I'm not suggesting we should stay locked down until we reach HIT or even just very high levels of immunisation but with improved vaccines that better deal with Delta better I do think it should be an aim. No doubt we won't eliminate in the short or medium term.
I'm for compulsory vaccination for all major vaccines with all sorts of incentives/punishments to encourage it - everything short of holding people down and sticking with a needle.
That's a fantastically useful reply, thank you.
So the UK government is keeping Pakistan on the red list because of a 'lack of data coming from the country' despite Imran Khan's best efforts at vaccination. Probably the right decision truth be told. Yet India is fine to stay on amber because, well, Modi and his cohorts wouldn't arrest people begging for oxygen tanks but yeah Modi's people will be on top of their data. 
Tories not even bothered to cover the hypocrisy now.
Tories not even bothered to cover the hypocrisy now.
A couple of interesting bits of info emerging in those threads:
Case rates per 100k adults.
Green - fully vaxxed
Yellow - unvaxxed
One observation that might be of concern for other countries as well is that a lot of the infections are in people who are vaccinated with single dose Janssen. That may be confused by the fact that it's mostly been used with young adults and that's also the group with the highest case rate and number of unvaxxed people. Plus some of them may only be a couple of weeks post-vaccine and there is some evidence that it gets steadily more effective over the next few weeks.
Some early real world data though is suggesting that J&J may be behaving like first dose AZ - rather than a true single dose product. I'm sure a lot of countries are keeping an eye on that, particularly with Delta.
Apparently they’re planning to give everyone who got the J&J vaccine a Pfizer booster.
Thanks. So J&J is really shit as I thought (regarding infections, fine-ish for hospitalisations). It has been given a lot less than Pfizer, also in the under 30s.
I’d be interested to know how similar the Icelandic split of the various vaccines is to other EU countries. I’d imagine it’s fairly similar?
Also worth considering that J&J has probably been mainly used in the youngest cohort, who do the most socialising. Which will skew those results a bit.
You can find it from the ecdc site. Yeah the only differences will come if countries didn't use J&J or AZ, at all or for some age groups. Finland didn't use J&J at all for example.
It skews it a bit, but as I said Pfizer was used more in under 30s than J&J (16-29 years: Pfizer 35k, J&J 21k). So it is pretty much certain even with these numbers that J&J is a lot worse.
Just checked for Ireland and j&j is <4% of doses given. We’ve tended to use whatever is available so doubt that figure is much higher anywhere else in the EU.
I keep reading about young people having problems with long-covid, 6-12 months after experiensing a mild cold-like disease.
Exhaustion and fatigue, consentration problems and trouble remembering seem to be the most common troubles.
Anyone here on the caf who’s had covid and has experiensed this? Would be interesting to find out how many percent of the caf’s posters had or have problems with long covid.
Exhaustion and fatigue, consentration problems and trouble remembering seem to be the most common troubles.
Anyone here on the caf who’s had covid and has experiensed this? Would be interesting to find out how many percent of the caf’s posters had or have problems with long covid.
Yeah, seems like Iceland is an anomaly and others are around Ireland's numbers. Although of course 4% doses means about 8% of people.
That’s interesting
I have heightened memory issues for a few months now, I struggle to name people that I am having a conversation about. Say for example I’m talking about Bruno, I might forget his name and say something like “your man from Portugal.. forget his name”.
I have a rough idea when it started too.
however I’ve never been tested for COVID. My kids have been kept off school a few times and I’ve had cold symptoms in the past.
im reaching here maybe, it could also be the meds that I’m on (statins are known for it)
I am also very tired but put it down to me doing a new job since April
I've had long covid for a fair amount of time now. I originally had some fatigue which has gone now and now have problems with my breathing which is being dealt with by the hospital, but haven't had the concentration and memory issues (any more than usual anyway...)
It's worth saying that I had very minor symptoms at the time with a couple of nights of difficult breathing and a slight temperature.
The feck is this?
What the feck are those morons trying to accomplish?
Gillian McKeith is a well known discredited fecking idiot.
From Wiki... 'One of the earliest criticisms focuses on McKeith's diploma in nutrition from American Association of Nutritional Consultants. In 2004, physician and writer Ben Goldacre questioned the credibility of McKeith's diploma, after he successfully applied for and received the same diploma on behalf of his dead cat Henrietta.'
From Wiki... 'One of the earliest criticisms focuses on McKeith's diploma in nutrition from American Association of Nutritional Consultants. In 2004, physician and writer Ben Goldacre questioned the credibility of McKeith's diploma, after he successfully applied for and received the same diploma on behalf of his dead cat Henrietta.'
As a pulmonary physician I can tell you I have a few patients with long covid, not necessarily young patients, in fact I haven't seen many young people with it. Most of these patients I have, have respiratory issues, single most common phenotype is asthma/reactive airways. Not surprising cuz we know post viral asthma is a thing.
You could ask your doctor if it’s possibly that you could be tested for C19 antibodies? You may have had an asymptomatic infection at some point as you know, I´m sure. Sounds like it could just be your meds and new work too.
Regarding your tiredness, how does your body react to training, if you´re into that? I find that it gives me more energy. I started running two to three times weekly since I started in a new job like you last year. I was really nervous and tense about how I´d handle the new job but running really helped me quit ´thought grinding´ and just made me think more rationally about it.
I hope you get 100% well mate. Just keep working.
I´m guessing now that covid (at least in my country) is driven forward by the young er generation, 15-25 y.o., we´ll know more about long covid statistics among young people in a few months time over here. Been a spike in numbers this summer in that age group. I hope it’s like you say, that not that many young people are struggling. I have young kids myself (10m and 4y) and it seems very likely that they´ll be exposed to the virus before getting a vaccine, unless they start giving vaccines to kids as well.
Is that showing up on their FEV1/FVC? Would be one of very few long covid symptoms you can measure objectively, if so. Although I guess you’re unlikely to know their baseline lung function, which must muddy the waters a bit.