SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

neverdie said:
Isn't it a problem to think in terms of herd immunity tied to vaccination when up to 20% of the population has not been recommended for vaccination? Or is the line of thought that children are less likely to be a risk when it comes to the development of new variants? Because under 16s constitute 20%+ of the population the UK and that's a comparatively low number in EU terms. I understand that children are far less likely to suffer adverse effects on a personal level, which outweighs the risk of negative vaccination response, but surely on a collective level they represent a far greater risk than the tiny fraction of vaccine hold outs?
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My personal opinion is that we won’t ever reach full herd immunity. The virus is too contagious and vaccine evasive already. And likely to get more so in the future. It’s just not possible to vaccinate enough of the world to reach HIT. Kids will also be a problem here. Very young kids face basically zero threat from covid so the ethics of vaccinating them is dubious, which takes a biggish % of potentially vaccinated off the table.

We don’t have to think of HIT or bust though. The more people get vaccinated the smaller future outbreaks will be. Every single individual vaccinated can act as a potential fire wall to protect those who aren’t medically eligible for a vaccine or those in whom the vaccine fails.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
My personal opinion is that we won’t ever reach full herd immunity. The virus is too contagious and vaccine evasive already. And likely to get more so in the future. It’s just not possible to vaccinate enough of the world to reach HIT. Kids will also be a problem here. Very young kids face basically zero threat from covid so the ethics of vaccinating them is dubious, which takes a biggish % of potentially vaccinated off the table.

We don’t have to think of HIT or bust though. The more people get vaccinated the smaller future outbreaks will be. Every single individual vaccinated can act as a potential fire wall to protect those who aren’t medically eligible for a vaccine or those in whom the vaccine fails.
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The biggest worry for me is that the best we will ever be capable of is vaccinating against the current strain, which sounds obvious as a limitation as you never know what the next strain is but by that I mean the first world’s vaccination capacity will always be focusing on maintaining immunity in the first world while the rest of the world constantly deals with wave upon wave and inevitably incubates the next problematic strain.


What happened to that holy grain of vaccines which should work against all strains?
 
Pexbo said:
The biggest worry for me is that the best we will ever be capable of is vaccinating against the current strain, which sounds obvious as a limitation as you never know what the next strain is but by that I mean the first world’s vaccination capacity will always be focusing on maintaining immunity in the first world while the rest of the world constantly deals with wave upon wave and inevitably incubates the next problematic strain.


What happened to that holy grain of vaccines which should work against all strains?
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At that point doesn't it basically become influenza though? Vaccines every year and accept that there will be certain amount of deaths?
 
Massive Spanner said:
At that point doesn't it basically become influenza though? Vaccines every year and accept that there will be certain amount of deaths?
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If it’s still ravaging the rest of the world because we only have capacity for vaccinating the first world? I’d say that’s still pandemic.
 
Pexbo said:
The biggest worry for me is that the best we will ever be capable of is vaccinating against the current strain, which sounds obvious as a limitation as you never know what the next strain is but by that I mean the first world’s vaccination capacity will always be focusing on maintaining immunity in the first world while the rest of the world constantly deals with wave upon wave and inevitably incubates the next problematic strain.

What happened to that holy grain of vaccines which should work against all strains?
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I think we're going to see a massive expansion in vaccine and related manufacturing capacity over the next couple of years. Mothballed plants have come back into service, new plant added. With everything being about speed and shortages, it was the US and the EU (and ironically the UK who went from more or less zero to 10m/month and should get to 30m/month by year end) who could do it fast.

India will develop its own supply chain for things like disposable bioreactors, tubing, vials - things that limited their ability to manufacture even more. Brasil and South Africa will want their own factories. I don't think we'll see the west consume the lot, next year we'll move from actual shortage to the more traditional problem of rich v poor, "if we keep making this stuff, who's going to pay for it?" Hopefully the answer will be the ones with money will pay for everyone, because the costs are low compared to the alternative.
 
First time on the train since 'Freedom* Day'. The number of old people who think they're now invincible is staggering. Anyone under 60 seems the same as usual with mask wearing.
 
Vidic_In_Moscow said:
Assuming you would extend the asking of that question to the government (forgive me if you don't), but doesn't the thought of a government thinking in those terms make you wince and cringe? Is there anything a government can do beyond education that you would really be comfortable with and like to see?
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It's really an empirical question: what measures can the government take that effectively boost the vaccination rate?

There's not much point in me guessing what will work and what won't - I'd like to see the government trial different approaches on small populations and then roll-out the ones which prove effective. They could experiment around incentives like tax, insurance premiums, travel restrictions, event restrictions, quarantine rules, and various types of priorities given to vaccinated people over the non-vaccinated.
 
decorativeed said:
First time on the train since 'Freedom* Day'. The number of old people who think they're now invincible is staggering. Anyone under 60 seems the same as usual with mask wearing.
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fecking old people, you should slide tackle one of them so they know they're not invisible.
 
decorativeed said:
First time on the train since 'Freedom* Day'. The number of old people who think they're now invincible is staggering. Anyone under 60 seems the same as usual with mask wearing.
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It amazing how it was "look at all the young selfish people not protecting the old people" but in reality it's the old people who can't be arsed to look after themselves.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Because of what one person saw on one train journey? Sure thing.
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It's already been said multiple times in this thread the uptake of the masks in the younger Vs older since freedom Day is much better in the younger and it's the older people who have dropped it much quicker. So no, not one post at all.

Edit: Could be one of the other covid threads actually. CBA to check though. Sure you will do it for me.
 
Rather than old and young the more appropriate distinction is vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Vaccinated people are disproportionately represented in the “let’s get rid of masks” group, which makes sense because they feel less at risk and they pose fewer risks to others. More older people are vaccinated, hence the correlation. And in general, most people in every age group are still wearing masks.

The people we should be particularly concerned about are those who are unmasked and unvaccinated. There aren’t that many of them, but most of them are young, mostly due to the logistics but also partly due to ideology.

I was in London last week and was surprised to see a lot of people masked even when outside. It seems some people actually do enjoy the benefits of blocking out those fumes that were always in your face in parts of London. Still felt weird to me but maybe I could get on board. Also lots more popping in and out of shops, public transport etc. so easier to keep on. Thought it was a positive sign.

Very few people unmasked indoors or on transport but you did get the odd young one that was topless and maskless. Very happy to make the argument that their body is a temple and they wouldn’t pollute their bodies with those nasty chemicals. Such a ludicrous position to take but hey ho…
 
Brwned said:
Rather than old and young the more appropriate distinction is vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Vaccinated people are disproportionately represented in the “let’s get rid of masks” group, which makes sense because they feel less at risk and they pose fewer risks to others. More older people are vaccinated, hence the correlation. And in general, most people in every age group are still wearing masks.

The people we should be particularly concerned about are those who are unmasked and unvaccinated. There aren’t that many of them, but most of them are young, mostly due to the logistics but also partly due to ideology.

I was in London last week and was surprised to see a lot of people masked even when outside. It seems some people actually do enjoy the benefits of blocking out those fumes that were always in your face in parts of London. Still felt weird to me but maybe I could get on board. Also lots more popping in and out of shops, public transport etc. so easier to keep on. Thought it was a positive sign.

Very few people unmasked indoors or on transport but you did get the odd young one that was topless and maskless. Very happy to make the argument that their body is a temple and they wouldn’t pollute their bodies with those nasty chemicals. Such a ludicrous position to take but hey ho…
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Good post. The vaccine can definitely make people forget they're still at risk.
 
One Night Only said:
Good post. The vaccine can definitely make people forget they're still at risk.
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True, but I’m sympathetic to that perspective personally. It reduces infection and transmission a hell of a lot. The chances of a vaccinated person passing it onto another vaccinated person in a short encounter at the shops is incredibly small. There’s a small risk that a vaccinated person will pass it onto an unvaccinated one, and that risk is a real one when there’s such a high rate of infection.

In principle I’m happy enough that both individuals can choose to take that heightened risk, but that’s not a real choice yet because lots of people haven’t had the chance to get fully vaccinated and the single vaccination isn’t enough against these variants.

Once that context changes (1 month?) I wouldn’t have an issue with vaccinated people going without a mask in a shop. I understand why it would piss people off but I personally don’t feel that’s proportionate to the effects of their choice. I know their choice effects other people but it’s good that people still have independence in those contexts too, lots of choices impact other people but they’re still yours to make.

Right now however I think people doing it are just being unreasonably selfish or careless.
 
Brwned said:
True, but I’m sympathetic to that perspective personally. It reduces infection and transmission a hell of a lot. The chances of a vaccinated person passing it onto another vaccinated person in a short encounter at the shops is incredibly small. There’s a small risk that a vaccinated person will pass it onto an unvaccinated one, and that risk is a real one when there’s such a high rate of infection.

In principle I’m happy enough that both individuals can choose to take that heightened risk, but that’s not a real choice yet because lots of people haven’t had the chance to get fully vaccinated and the single vaccination isn’t enough against these variants.

Once that context changes (1 month?) I wouldn’t have an issue with vaccinated people going without a mask in a shop. I understand why it would piss people off but I personally don’t feel that’s proportionate to the effects of their choice. I know their choice effects other people but it’s good that people still have independence in those contexts too, lots of choices impact other people but they’re still yours to make.

Right now however I think people doing it are just being unreasonably selfish or careless.
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Its always a fine line, between rules and independence. We have speed limits and traffic lights and drug laws and other restrictions on what we can and can’t do. So the question becomes in what bracket does wearing a mask fall? I can understand the argument on both sides of the coin.
 
rpitroda said:
Its always a fine line, between rules and independence. We have speed limits and traffic lights and drug laws and other restrictions on what we can and can’t do. So the question becomes in what bracket does wearing a mask fall? I can understand the argument on both sides of the coin.
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Yep, same for me!
 
Brwned said:
Yep, same for me!
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I think that one of the issues related to wearing a mask is that we were all told that it was to protect others.
And now with the high rates of vaccinations, some people can be excused for thinking that it is no as important now.
That is not my view incidentally.

We are now being told that wearing a mask can work both ways, including protecting yourself from airborne droplets.

But whatever the reason, it is dim in the extreme to relax the requirement just when the delta variant is running out of control.
 
Manchester Victoria to Liverpool Lime Street train has just arrived. It's a 5 carriage train with the type of windows that don't open. Probably 100 people on it. I'd say 15% max are wearing masks. I can't see this experiment ending well.

Edit: As the train has been stuck on my platform not moving for ages, and as sad pedantz I was able to do a count. 88 no masks, 17 masks.

I was back in work today - I work in a museum - which was open to the public for the first time this week. I'd expected, given our culture crowd are often viewed as informed and slightly different in outlook to your general city centre shopper, that it'd be similar to pre-freedom day, but I was shocked to see a similar level of compliance to that train.
 
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Buster15 said:
I think that one of the issues related to wearing a mask is that we were all told that it was to protect others.
And now with the high rates of vaccinations, some people can be excused for thinking that it is no as important now.
That is not my view incidentally.

We are now being told that wearing a mask can work both ways, including protecting yourself from airborne droplets.

But whatever the reason, it is dim in the extreme to relax the requirement just when the delta variant is running out of control.
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Yeah that's true. The mask messaging in general was just very poorly handled.

First we're told it protects healthcare workers but isn't useful for Joe public, then it's deemed essential to protect Joe public, then they clarify and say well really we were kind of right all along and it doesn't protect you that much but it does protect others much more than we originally estimated, so do it in the interests of the public good. That ambiguity or complexity just gives people permission to zone out, or cherry pick details. Then as you say the vaccination pushes some people off that fence.

Also the hot weather is an incentive to take the mask off. It's not unbearable but I do think it should be classified as more than a minor inconvenience at that point. I still think people should tolerate the inconvenience for the benefit it brings, but I understand it moves the needle a bit. Maybe it is super difficult for some elderly people to breath in that heat and mask.
 
It is now ten days since the Euros finished and there doesn`t seem to be any big hospital surges in England, Italy, Spain or Denmark where the teams involved in the latter stages had fairly large gatherings in stadiums, fanzones and the like. Surely a good sign that vaccines are doing a good job and we may just have a chance with this reopening?
 
Iv not seen any real difference over last 3 days to June/July with masks. People who didn't want to wear one stopped a month ago from West Yorkshire public transport anyway.
 
djembatheking said:
It is now ten days since the Euros finished and there doesn`t seem to be any big hospital surges in England, Italy, Spain or Denmark where the teams involved in the latter stages had fairly large gatherings in stadiums, fanzones and the like. Surely a good sign that vaccines are doing a good job and we may just have a chance with this reopening?
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Still probably quite soon to see impact on hospitalisation and deaths. Fingers crossed though there isn’t a significant spike.
 
rpitroda said:
Still probably quite soon to see impact on hospitalisation and deaths. Fingers crossed though there isn’t a significant spike.
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It is definitely looking promising though as there was some fairly big gatherings of fans shouting and celebrating in close quarters mostly outside granted, but there must have been a lot of indoor get togethers too .
 
What I am wondering is, why do people seem angry at people who refuse the vaccine, when the only person being at risk from not getting the vaccine is the person refusing?
 
The holy trinity 68 said:
Why don't you explain it to me?
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By taking the risk yourself you are far more likely to catch it - and therefore pass it on to others. That's without the possibility of vaccinations reducing transmission.

So by choosing not to have it it certainly can affect many others and not just yourself not as you posted.
 
The Cat said:
By taking the risk yourself you are far more likely to catch it - and therefore pass it on to others. That's without the possibility of vaccinations reducing transmission.

So by choosing not to have it it certainly can affect many others and not just yourself not as you posted.
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That is not true though. Most of my friends are fully vaccinated and they still all caught covid over the Euro's. Every single one that caught covid and was vaccinated (7 in total) all gave their parents it and they are fully vaccinated.

It does get transmitted with or without the vaccine. The vaccine also doesn't stop covid from being on your hands and clothes. I caught covid from a fully vaccinated friend and he was actually worse than me even with 2 vaccines to my 0.

The vaccine helps stop covid from being less severe if you do get it, but it doesn't stop transmission.

Government websites even state that you can still catch Covid after vaccination.
 
The holy trinity 68 said:
That is not true though. Most of my friends are fully vaccinated and they still all caught covid over the Euro's. Every single one that caught covid and was vaccinated (7 in total) all gave their parents it and they are fully vaccinated.

It does get transmitted with or without the vaccine. The vaccine also doesn't stop covid from being on your hands and clothes. I caught covid from a fully vaccinated friend and he was actually worse than me even with 2 vaccines to my 0.

The vaccine helps stop covid from being less severe if you do get it, but it doesn't stop transmission.

Government websites even state that you can still catch Covid after vaccination.
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You carry on fella.

I'll listen to the scientists cheers.
 
The holy trinity 68 said:
The reason I asked the question is because my first hand experience showed that my vaccinated friends all caught it and passed it on.

How about trying to enlighten and educate rather than dismissing and mocking?
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Who is mocking? You are getting off very lightly here.

I already explained why your decisions can affect people other than yourself - that was your original point and it is totally wrong, that's on you if you want to believe a cross section of half a dozen people instead of all the officially published information.
 
The holy trinity 68 said:
That is not true though. Most of my friends are fully vaccinated and they still all caught covid over the Euro's. Every single one that caught covid and was vaccinated (7 in total) all gave their parents it and they are fully vaccinated.

It does get transmitted with or without the vaccine. The vaccine also doesn't stop covid from being on your hands and clothes. I caught covid from a fully vaccinated friend and he was actually worse than me even with 2 vaccines to my 0.

The vaccine helps stop covid from being less severe if you do get it, but it doesn't stop transmission.

Government websites even state that you can still catch Covid after vaccination.
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Out of interest how bad were the symptoms in your friends who caught it despite being double vaccinated? No hospitalizations I hope.
 
The holy trinity 68 said:
Please tell me where the tin hat silliness is in my question? It was a genuine question and I didn't throw around any conspiracies.
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can you answer some questions for me before we are expected to engage in this discussion.

a) why aren’t you vaccinated?
b) how many people do you believe have died through Corona?
 
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