SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
McDonalds staff wouldn't let me in yesterday unless I scanned the QC code, I told them I don't have the app, they kinda moaned a little and then just let me in anyhow.
Whole thing is a farce and the app shut down some of the tube today for pinging control staff to isolate
Whole thing is a farce and the app shut down some of the tube today for pinging control staff to isolate
I'm guessing without the app you'd only self isolate if contacted by Test and Trace (who I imagine are only contacting a small % of contacts given the case load)?
I feel like if Johnson isn’t going to isolate, after being in direct, indoor (assumption) contact with someone confirmed positive…we might as well pack in any form of isolation. The public are barely listening now.
Everything on the news today about Covid, it’s really looking grim.
CTRL + F on this page for "Coronavirus waves compared"
It's re-assuring to see how this wave compares to others - and suggests the vaccine is keeping deaths way below where they would be even with the current lack of restrictions we have in place.
In short, according to the Guardian at the same stage of the previous wave we were at about 200 deaths per day despite having higher cases.
Not quite sure how they've plotted the data, but using my own rudimentary comparison of a 14 day lag between cases and deaths, we should be averaging about 350+ deaths a day using wave #2 as a guide, and 550+ deaths a day if we were to use wave #3. We're currently averaging about 40.
If my method makes any sense whatsoever, then I'd expect us to be averaging about 100 deaths per day in two weeks time.
Of course the big variables here are winter vs. summer, and to what extent the geographic clusters are overwhelming ICU units.
I think the bigger problem would be if people are looking to politicians to set an example.
Very true
I’m sure they’re not, but lots will use any excuse they can to reinforce their view that they don’t need to isolate, wear masks etc etc.Has Johnson said he isn't going to isolate, or is this just being assumed for some reason? I know he's a tosser but it's not right to make stuff up either.
Excess deaths have historical analysis built into it. They tell you how many more deaths there have been vs the historical 5-year average in that country, or what they term "expected deaths". So if the difference between expected deaths and actual deaths is 0 then it tells you the same number of people died as would be expected based on historical trends. The % change shown in the first chart adds an additional layer on top that normalises the data within each country, so you can compare how significantly things have changed across all countries in a single view. Those two data transformations are the only way you can meaningfully compare across countries and over time in a single view. That's not showing less data or presenting a narrow view on things, it's providing more information.
For example this tells you that in a single week in mid-April 2020 in the UK there were 24,691 deaths from all causes, whereas in the previous 5 years on the same week, there was an average of 11,825 deaths. In other words there were more than twice as many deaths as you'd expect, all things being equal. The graphic shows you that this was the biggest deviation from excess deaths in Britain, with all of the seasonal effects stripped away, and the degree of excess deaths was more significant than anything experienced in Portugal (+ 75%, or an extra 2000 deaths in Jan this year) but not as bad as Spain at its worst (+ 158%, or an extra 13k deaths in April last year). Comparing the absolute numbers would be difficult to do within a single country across those kinds of timeframes, and completely impossible across countries with varying populations and mortality rates. It's a really effective way for cross-country, temporal analysis at that level of precision.
Thank you very for your great post Sir. Greatly appreciated.
I agree the approach is very rich, refined and rich in terms of level of details
What possible reason could people have for assuming he will fail to do the right thing? If there’s anyone due the benefit of the doubt, their name isn’t Boris Johnson.
I think people are perfectly within their rights to consider the damage of the scenario where he does the wrong thing.
That's answered my question thanks, it is an assumption.
I don't see how he could justify not isolating personally, but I daresay we'll find out tomorrow, lots of politician-interviewing takes place on Sunday mornings.
Pretty stressed out here at the moment. We've got our wedding booked in for 22nd August. We started planning this in April 2019, thinking that we'd have loads of time to sort things out and the more time the better. Then, Covid hit.
Looking at these rising numbers is making us both nervous whether or not restrictions will come into place in a month's time. To make things even more confusing, my wife-to-be is Belgian with her entire family living over there. The original plan (pre-Covid) was to have them come over and celebrate the day with us...because generally you'd expect the bride's family to be there on the day. Well, just over a month to go and we're at that stage where we need to start submitting numbers. Honestly, how likely do we think it will be for Belgian residents to come to the UK and not have to quarantine on arrival and then leave and not have to quarantine back home? Everyone coming over (bar a few kids under 5) will be double vaccinated. I keep hearing talk about the EU and UK having reciprocal arrangements in place soon with regards to recognising each other's vaccine status, but there hasn't been word on this for weeks.
We can't postpone either. We enquired about it in January (to stop this exact situation from happening) and our venue told us no. I know that we should be grateful that we've had our vaccines and everyone around us is safe, but it doesn't stop us stressing over a very real problem for us. We've put years of savings into this...
Looking at these rising numbers is making us both nervous whether or not restrictions will come into place in a month's time. To make things even more confusing, my wife-to-be is Belgian with her entire family living over there. The original plan (pre-Covid) was to have them come over and celebrate the day with us...because generally you'd expect the bride's family to be there on the day. Well, just over a month to go and we're at that stage where we need to start submitting numbers. Honestly, how likely do we think it will be for Belgian residents to come to the UK and not have to quarantine on arrival and then leave and not have to quarantine back home? Everyone coming over (bar a few kids under 5) will be double vaccinated. I keep hearing talk about the EU and UK having reciprocal arrangements in place soon with regards to recognising each other's vaccine status, but there hasn't been word on this for weeks.
We can't postpone either. We enquired about it in January (to stop this exact situation from happening) and our venue told us no. I know that we should be grateful that we've had our vaccines and everyone around us is safe, but it doesn't stop us stressing over a very real problem for us. We've put years of savings into this...
Nice. We are at about 43% and it won’t climb any higher as the remaining 57% mostly do not believe the virus exist/think vaccine is far more dangerous. Our government has also said they will not try to make any restrictions aimed at unvaccinated like France (mostly because their voters are largely in that group) so that incentive is also gone. I’m preparing for a tough Autumn, fortunately all my close relatives and friends are fully vaccinated already. Part of me really wants the virus to hit the idiots, who are not getting vaccines because they reckon they are amazingly smart and have discovered the conspiracy, very hard. Unfortunately this is not how it works.
So this is primarily a technical issue right now, and there is a working group setup to fix it. The UK needs to be able to access the data behind the EU QR code but GDPR makes it difficult. It could be done in a few weeks, however that doesn't account for the politicians getting involved as they are now beginning to do, slapping random restrictions on countries.
I'm in a similar position to you. My UK based brother in law is getting married in Spain in just over a month. I can go just fine as I live in Italy. I'm starting to think I might be the only one there.
Fingers crossed for Sajid.
Please god I'm begging... you've done us dirty for 18 months now... just to give us a little hope.
Please god I'm begging... you've done us dirty for 18 months now... just to give us a little hope.
And I’d say man up. Seriously people dodging a bit of the side effects, imagine how you’d feel if you got the actual virus? Or you gave it to a friend or relative?
You’re telling that like a good story
Yup, that's true! It's for the best to get it done. Feels like this is what it's going to be like for the foreseeable future- learning to live with the virus and getting boosters for different variants.
Have to be honest I would forego the kebab. Not being holier than though but that's what I do at the moment don't take unneccessary risks.
Personally I don't see the point of booster shots yet. So far the current vaccination regimen has worked fine to protect against hospitalizations, severe disease and death.
I'd question the hygiene of the staff of the place! They clearly don't care about their customers health.
The government don't have to celebrate freedom day by going into quarantine. Let the bells ring out:
Let me guess, this pilot programme was launched about 20 minutes after they were notified they needed to isolate.
What a pair of cnuts
1 rule for them, 1 for everyone else
1 rule for them, 1 for everyone else
How predictable 
Wow. 711 wrong again shock.
Johnson will NOT self-isolate. You might think it impossible to underestimate the stupidity of this man, but I managed it.
Ok I now think we’re in trouble…
Either they didn’t expect the population to follow the basics like adhering to track and trace, maintain personal hygiene, etc. so they thought “ach, what difference will it make?” or they want to embolden people to disregard them. Seems more likely it’s the latter at this point. That’s gonna feck shit up.
Hope it backfires on them and people just start to self-regulate because they no longer believe the government have any interest in keeping them safe. That way they’ll seem weak and callous by the health conscious folk and stupid and careless by the business conscious folk. That’s my plan now. If people want to let it rip I’ll steer clear.
What a bunch of cnuts.
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Let me guess, this pilot programme was launched about 20 minutes after they were notified they needed to isolate.
Genuinely burst out laughing reading this. They are such a bunch of cnuts. No shame whatsoever.
fecking twats. Seriously. They keep deliberately screwing us over.
Even if they tested positive now they won't tell us
Even if they tested positive now they won't tell us
Isn't it obvious by now that they really don't give a feck? Let the bodies pile up.
It was pretty inevitable wasn't it?Very true
Not really, the good part was that I’d forgotten my mask so was worried about being able to get my food - the fact that no one else was bothered about masks was a bit worrying at the same time, although I assume this will be the norm in England from tomorrow anyway
What kind of message does this send out ? They’re either really bad at their jobs or give zero fecks about the general public now.
Whats more dangerous is if they’ve actually decided to roll this scheme out to others now to cover their own backs:
@711 That assumption didn’t work out too badly did it?
Could this be the fastest U-turn ever? Wankers.
The racist cnuts are going back inside on freedom day. Feck them.
Definitely both.