SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

stw2022 said:
It’s clear note the goal posts have shifted to demanding a zero covid strategy.

Post vaccine the key indicator that matters is deaths, and to a lesser extent because of pressure on the NHS this could lead to.lb even if those in hospital are less sick that before due to their age range which of what all the anecdotal evidence points towards

It’s telling that deaths in particular are seldom now mentioned and the entire focus is on case numbers.
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In the UK now, the attention of most people in government and the media is on hospitalisations. The non-hospital related impacts have mostly been pushed out of the discussion. That includes GP services who are struggling with the routine treatment demands of even the mild cases, at risk people (who can't be vaxxed, or who don't respond to the vaccine) and the fear that the post-viral conditions (long covid etc) are going to overwhelm respiratory rehab centres etc for months or even years.

Cases in the UK (and anywhere else with high adult vaccine uptake) are currently being seen as a leading indicator and warning sign, rather than as a thing we're supposed to care about. We've already entered the phase where we've rolled the dice and the answer we're hoping for is that the vaccines (and the most at risk staying home for a couple more months) gets us through it. We don't get that answer for months though, so everything else is extrapolating the stats from now and hoping for the best.

Personally if I was running another country though, I'd put the UK on the travel red list while I'm vaccinating people as fast as I can.
 
Why is everyone getting in a tizzy about rising cases? This was laid out in the plan wasn't it? Everyone knew the cases would rise but the hospitalisations wouldn't reach the levels they did earlier in the year?
 
stw2022 said:
It’s clear note the goal posts have shifted to demanding a zero covid strategy.

Post vaccine the key indicator that matters is deaths, and to a lesser extent because of pressure on the NHS this could lead to.lb even if those in hospital are less sick that before due to their age range which of what all the anecdotal evidence points towards

It’s telling that deaths in particular are seldom now mentioned and the entire focus is on case numbers.
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You have to be joking. For the first time since the pandemic started almost every single expert is agreed on this one. Zero covid is off the table. There are some fringe elements still digging their heels but literally nobody who understand what’s going on thinks zero covid is an option any more.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
You have to be joking. For the first time since the pandemic started almost every single expert is agreed on this one. Zero covid is off the table. There are some fringe elements still digging their heels but literally nobody who understand what’s going on thinks zero covid is an option any more.
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The UK’s current policy isn’t even “zero covid”, it’s fairly well balanced. The UK’s policy from July 19th is pretty much the polar opposite of “zero covid”.

@stw2022 people are upset because they think the balanced approach is perfectly reasonable right now and the “freedom” approach from July 19th is reckless not just for UK citizens but for the rest of the world as we let an already vaccine resistant strain of the virus rip through a semi vaccinated population. It’s the ideal breeding ground for a particularly nasty mutation.
 
One Night Only said:
Why is everyone getting in a tizzy about rising cases? This was laid out in the plan wasn't it? Everyone knew the cases would rise but the hospitalisations wouldn't reach the levels they did earlier in the year?
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Pretty much. Although there are reasons to be a alarmed given some of the decisions - making masks non-compulsory, and the inevitable impact that this will have on the more vulnerable once again. Sadly though, that's something that will happen in any instance of coming out of lockdown. We've lived in an alien way for the best part of 18 months, in part, to protect the most vulnerable, and now we're trying to mark a way out of this.

Also the fears of mutations of the virus are presumably less pertinent to the UK given how the virus is so present elsewhere, although any mutations here could look to bypass/nullify the very vaccines we're relying on getting us back to normality. That's where the timing risk comes into it.
 
One Night Only said:
Why is everyone getting in a tizzy about rising cases? This was laid out in the plan wasn't it? Everyone knew the cases would rise but the hospitalisations wouldn't reach the levels they did earlier in the year?
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At the moment we don't know where the hospitalisations are going to end up, that's the gamble.

We've got two ways of predicting the future, one says look at today's cases, combine it with the admissions per 100 positives tests rate we're currently seeing (based on positive tests 7-12 days before hospital admission) and that gives you your prediction for where we'll be as cases double and then double again over the next month.

The other scenario is a predictive model says that there will be a balancing trend (a combination of newly vaccinated/infected people reducing the susceptible plus behavioural changes by the vulnerable - that is, they stay home) that will pull the case rate down generally, but will stop it rising much at all in the vaccinated and at risk. This generates the spi-m model, which is one of those that Sage uses.

Currently it really is too close to call, there's evidence for scenario 2 in Bolton for example. Overall though, across the country scenario 1 is currently more accurate. You can get an idea of why it looks like a gamble from:


My guess is that the oldies will indeed stay home and not go near their grandkids (indoors at least) for the summer. I also hope it will add to the incentives to get vaccinated. But we really don't know, "Freedom Day" needs a "but some of you had better stay home" disclaimer to keep hospitalisations manageable.
 
groovyalbert said:
Pretty much. Although there are reasons to be a alarmed given some of the decisions - making masks non-compulsory, and the inevitable impact that this will have on the more vulnerable once again. Sadly though, that's something that will happen in any instance of coming out of lockdown. We've lived in an alien way for the best part of 18 months, in part, to protect the most vulnerable, and now we're trying to mark a way out of this.

Also the fears of mutations of the virus are presumably less pertinent to the UK given how the virus is so present elsewhere, although any mutations here could look to bypass/nullify the very vaccines we're relying on getting us back to normality. That's where the timing risk comes into it.
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What do you mean by this? As per the graph shared above by @jojojo, the virus is particularly prevalent in the UK vs. neighbouring countries.

Here it is set in a wider context. Looking at the growth curve, mutation fears are particularly acute in the UK...unless I'm misunderstanding? The high levels of vaccination - and in particular, high levels of partial protection from 1 dose - creates additional selection pressures which create additional risks for the worst kind of mutations too.

yNv4Qye.png


Caveat: bear in mind the difference in testing strategies has some impact on the number of tests, although supply tends to go up in line with demand so big picture analysis is still possible
 
Brwned said:
What do you mean by this? As per the graph shared above by @jojojo, the virus is particularly prevalent in the UK vs. neighbouring countries.

Here it is set in a wider context. Looking at the growth curve, mutation fears are particularly acute in the UK...unless I'm misunderstanding? The high levels of vaccination - and in particular, high levels of partial protection from 1 dose - creates additional selection pressures which create additional risks for the worst kind of mutations too.

yNv4Qye.png


Caveat: bear in mind the difference in testing strategies has some impact on the number of tests, although supply tends to go up in line with demand so big picture analysis is still possible
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You’re correct. The idea that new variants will spring up somewhere in the world anyway, so who cares if it happens in the UK is ridiculous. It’s obviously important to do everything possible to avoid being ground zero with these new variants. Look what delta did to India while they were still getting to grips with it ffs.

You’re also correct about the selective pressure of a partially vaccinated population during a big surge. I was worried about that when the UK pushed out the dosing intervals earlier in the year. The UK dodged a bullet because alpha seemed to be susceptible to first dose immunisation. This isn’t the case with delta and feck knows what the next significant mutation could do to a vaccine program that we all desperately need to succeed.
 
Brwned said:
What do you mean by this? As per the graph shared above by @jojojo, the virus is particularly prevalent in the UK vs. neighbouring countries.

Here it is set in a wider context. Looking at the growth curve, mutation fears are particularly acute in the UK...unless I'm misunderstanding? The high levels of vaccination - and in particular, high levels of partial protection from 1 dose - creates additional selection pressures which create additional risks for the worst kind of mutations too.

yNv4Qye.png


Caveat: bear in mind the difference in testing strategies has some impact on the number of tests, although supply tends to go up in line with demand so big picture analysis is still possible
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Given the UK's testing rate compared to elsewhere, I'd think there are places (Brazil, parts of Asia, even Cyprus potentially) which are just as likely to produce new variants as the UK. I think these global comparisons are relatively flawed. The access to accurate data is far too inconsistent. Just look at the numbers (cases/deaths/etc) being reported by India during it's peak, it was clearly nowhere close to the realities being faced.

That said, a genuine concern about any variant coming out of/produced in the UK/Europe will be that it could mutate to take into account the predominant vaccines rolled-out in the region (AZ, Pfizer, Moderna).
 
If a family member asks you look after their kid for a couple of hours, and then briefly mentions the kid has a bad cold...should you ask the question "are you sure it's not covid"? On the one hand, you would assume the parent has already went through their own mental checks, and you don't want to unduly freak them out, but on the other hand...it's covid. Thoughts?
 
groovyalbert said:
Given the UK's testing rate compared to elsewhere, I'd think there are places (Brazil, parts of Asia, even Cyprus potentially) which are just as likely to produce new variants as the UK. I think these global comparisons are relatively flawed. The access to accurate data is far too inconsistent. Just look at the numbers (cases/deaths/etc) being reported by India during it's peak, it was clearly nowhere close to the realities being faced.

That said, a genuine concern about any variant coming out of/produced in the UK/Europe will be that it could mutate to take into account the predominant vaccines rolled-out in the region (AZ, Pfizer, Moderna).
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But if they're just as likely to produce new variants - which, as you say, is a legitimate possibility - then why is that a reason to fear less about the UK? Or why isn't that level of likelihood not enough to worry about? I understand the concerns about the variations in data collection, but if you are just going to discount the best data we have available for International comparisons, then you're basically ruling out knowing whether the UK is any worse or better. Which is fair enough but isn't a good reason to downplay concerns, surely? To balance out the differences in testing practices you can look at positivity rate. On that front the UK is certainly worse than many, many countries right now, particularly given the fact the positivity rate has increased from around 0.2% back in May to 2.4% this week, and has been increasing almost daily for the last fortnight.
 
Brwned said:
But if they're just as likely to produce new variants - which, as you say, is a legitimate possibility - then why is that a reason to fear less about the UK? Or why isn't that level of likelihood not enough to worry about? I understand the concerns about the variations in data collection, but if you are just going to discount the best data we have available for International comparisons, then you're basically ruling out knowing whether the UK is any worse or better. Which is fair enough but isn't a good reason to downplay concerns, surely? To balance out the differences in testing practices you can look at positivity rate. On that front the UK is certainly worse than many, many countries right now.
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I don't think we should fear less about new variants from the UK than elsewhere, but there are inevitably going to be new variants nevertheless which will find entry points to places irregardless of whatever lockdown measures a country takes. I think what we're seeing more and more of as Covid continues/develops/becomes something we have to live with, is that lockdowns are short-term solutions/means of preventing health systems being overrun. The mood now seems to be that if the risk of the latter isn't evidenced, then opening up is the way forward (this is probably what politicians mean by "living with the virus").

I think this is potentially what's driving policy, and encouraging countries to take advantage of periods of relative calm. I'm not necessarily advocating wholeheartedly for this, and think there are some really bizarre decisions being taken with the whole July 19th opening up.

But I also think that whilst cases are not driving hospital admissions/deaths/severe cases to the extent those case numbers used to, then it does become a balancing act with other areas of concern (social impacts of lockdowns, economic issues, focussing on other medical demands).
 
groovyalbert said:
I don't think we should fear less about new variants from the UK than elsewhere, but there are inevitably going to be new variants nevertheless which will find entry points to places irregardless of whatever lockdown measures a country takes. I think what we're seeing more and more of as Covid continues/develops/becomes something we have to live with, is that lockdowns are short-term solutions/means of preventing health systems being overrun. The mood now seems to be that if the risk of the latter isn't evidenced, then opening up is the way forward (this is probably what politicians mean by "living with the virus").

I think this is potentially what's driving policy, and encouraging countries to take advantage of periods of relative calm. I'm not necessarily advocating wholeheartedly for this, and think there are some really bizarre decisions being taken with the whole July 19th opening up.

But I also think that whilst cases are not driving hospital admissions/deaths/severe cases to the extent those case numbers used to, then it does become a balancing act with other areas of concern (social impacts of lockdowns, economic issues, focussing on other medical demands).
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I am generally on the same page about healthcare system overload being the primary health factor being considered, and government decisions can be justified on that basis if their assumptions about spread and hospitalisation rate hold true. So far they’re tracking well enough but there’s evidence to suggest we might depart from expected levels, and so they are clearly taking a risk. I understand why when balanced up against other risks but it needs to be acknowledged that it is a risk, and concerns about cases is not hysteria.

The other key risk is variants because it poses a global systemic risk. The idea that it will happen anyway so we shouldn’t worry too much about it just isn’t true. The worst variants have happened in places where there was uncontrolled community spread (Italy, UK, India). There is good theory to explain why that happens too.

100k cases per day in a population the size of the UK would easily be classified as uncontrolled spread. Most countries are not expecting that, and if they did, they would be putting in mitigation strategies to prevent that. The UK is basically on its own in following this strategy at this level of infection. It isn’t comparable to other countries, and downplaying that risk is very dangerous IMO.
 
Brwned said:
I am generally on the same page about healthcare system overload being the primary health factor being considered, and government decisions can be justified on that basis if their assumptions about spread and hospitalisation rate hold true. So far they’re tracking well enough but there’s evidence to suggest we might depart from expected levels, and so they are clearly taking a risk. I understand why when balanced up against other risks but it needs to be acknowledged that it is a risk, and concerns about cases is not hysteria.

The other key risk is variants because it poses a global systemic risk. The idea that it will happen anyway so we shouldn’t worry too much about it just isn’t true. The worst variants have happened in places where there was uncontrolled community spread (Italy, UK, India). There is good theory to explain why that happens too.

100k cases per day in a population the size of the UK would easily be classified as uncontrolled spread. Most countries are not expecting that, and if they did, they would be putting in mitigation strategies to prevent that. The UK is basically on its own in following this strategy at this level of infection. It isn’t comparable to other countries, and downplaying that risk is very dangerous IMO.
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I agree with you on virtually all fronts here. The UK is taking a huge risk, and sort of assuming that herd immunity with the presence of the vaccine becomes a justifiable approach. That's certainly what it seems like from the offset.

In regards to the reporting of current figures and deaths, it would be good to know the numbers who've been double vaccinated, age breakdown and health status beyond Covid. Although given you're talking about ~30 deaths a day (currently), this would be phenomenally insensitive data to have in the public domain for the families dealing with their grief.

But it could also be the latter here that we, the public, aren't privy too which is informing policy makers on this front.

It's going to be interesting to see, from a research perspective, how this all goes. And whilst other countries aren't pursuing similar strategies, I'm sure they'll be watching closely to see if this is something viable for them.
 
Brwned said:
If a family member asks you look after their kid for a couple of hours, and then briefly mentions the kid has a bad cold...should you ask the question "are you sure it's not covid"? On the one hand, you would assume the parent has already went through their own mental checks, and you don't want to unduly freak them out, but on the other hand...it's covid. Thoughts?
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Everyone with a “bad cold” right now has covid (specifically the delta variant) unless proven otherwise. I wouldn’t let anyone in my house with a bad cold (especially an unvaccinated child) unless they’ve had a negative test (LFT at the very least, ideally PCR) The time when you might unduly freak someone out is unfortunately long gone.
 
Brwned said:
If a family member asks you look after their kid for a couple of hours, and then briefly mentions the kid has a bad cold...should you ask the question "are you sure it's not covid"? On the one hand, you would assume the parent has already went through their own mental checks, and you don't want to unduly freak them out, but on the other hand...it's covid. Thoughts?
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I've got a 2 year old, its not nice doing regular LFTs but we do. And recently after going back to nursery she'd picked up all sorts of nasty bugs. Walk in centre means we usually get a PCR sorted within the hour and results usually within a day. She's had 3 PCRs in the last 2 months.

Have had to take carers leave at times or work from home as despite my in-laws being double vaccinated, one has a heart condition so as happy as her grandparents would be I don't think its asking a lot for others to do their bit to prevent community transmission.
 
An interesting Twitter thread, that (even if the exact numbers aren't to be taken too literally) give a genuine sense of why now might still be the best time for reopening.

Admittedly, like me, he's also looking for stronger mitigations accompanying the reopening. If only to prepare people for the idea that it's not over yet, and give the most vulnerable (and their families) a bit of a heads up on looking after themselves and each other.

Disclaimer: he's a statistician by trade not a behavioural psychologist or epidemiologist. So he's modelling what he's seeing and has seen numerically and carrying it forward - not predicting future behaviour of the virus or the people.

 
Brwned said:
If a family member asks you look after their kid for a couple of hours, and then briefly mentions the kid has a bad cold...should you ask the question "are you sure it's not covid"? On the one hand, you would assume the parent has already went through their own mental checks, and you don't want to unduly freak them out, but on the other hand...it's covid. Thoughts?
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Asking about Covid would be my first question
 
4 weeks after the start of the Euros. I tend to think it's related.

Thankfully for The Netherlands, they heroically got knocked out by the Czechs to keep the infection rates from exploding even more.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
She’s quite annoyingly negative on Twitter and seems overly obsessed with long covid but hard to argue with anything she says here. The “what about cancer patients” argument is infuriating.

Is it correct that only 50% of the UK are fully vaccinated? That seems very low? We passed that milestone last week in Ireland and we’ve consistently been miles behind the UK in our roll-out.
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Think it's 34.5m currently so well over 60%.

Edit: Sorry too slow as already covered below your query.
 
Hey guys,

A question related to how soon can one contract covid again after you had it, is there any clear guidence on that?
No vaccine available for the age group in question as yet.
 
Poll finds that only 35% of Brits support ‘freedom day’. 50% oppose. I suppose the ‘don’t knows’ are a worry but hopefully this means that plenty will remain cautious.
 
Anyone else really hate the name “freedom day”?

It’s got a weird twisted privilege attached to it.
 
Rado_N said:
Anyone else really hate the name “freedom day”?

It’s got a weird twisted privilege attached to it.
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I don't know about a weird twisted privilege but its bloody annoying, especially when it doesn't reflect popular public sentiment. Feels like the British libertarian faction of the Tory party are flexing too much power.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
I don't know about a weird twisted privilege but its bloody annoying, especially when it doesn't reflect popular public sentiment. Feels like the British libertarian faction of the Tory party are flexing too much power.
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I mean in the sense that it takes a certain level of privilege to consider the current situation we’re in to be in any way comparable to not being “free” as people.

The term “freedom day” being previously used in association with the 13th amendment in the US and the end of slavery. Whereas we’re being asked to put a piece of cloth over our faces when we go to Tesco and not stand too close to people.

But also yea it’s just generally annoying.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Poll finds that only 35% of Brits support ‘freedom day’. 50% oppose. I suppose the ‘don’t knows’ are a worry but hopefully this means that plenty will remain cautious.
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I don't see what the hype is all about, we have all been allowed to go see our friends and family, go out for meals or drinks etc.. I have even squeezed in two weddings last month so life has kind of gone back to pre covid times with the only difference being I have had to wear a mask to some of the places I have been to.
 
Can anyone else see the Government trying somehow to shame people into still wearing masks? I could definitely see one of their daft slogans coming up
 
It is looking like masks and social distancing measures are going to carry on in Wales on public transport, health care , hospitals, doctors surgeries, dentists and even possibly in shops.
 
djembatheking said:
It is looking like masks and social distancing measures are going to carry on in Wales on public transport, health care , hospitals, doctors surgeries, dentists and even possibly in shops.
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No mention of pubs though which, let’s face it, all people care about here in Wales - standing up drinking
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
No mention of pubs though which, let’s face it, all people care about here in Wales - standing up drinking
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I think its more that essential things for the older more vulnerable like shops, transport, doctors are still being protected whereas people can avoid indoor areas in busy pubs if they choose , especially for a month or so whilst the weather is mild .
 
djembatheking said:
I think its more that essential things for the older more vulnerable like shops, transport, doctors are still being protected whereas people can avoid indoor areas in busy pubs if they choose , especially for a month or so whilst the weather is mild .
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Yeah makes sense
 
Rado_N said:
Anyone else really hate the name “freedom day”?

It’s got a weird twisted privilege attached to it.
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Just saw an ad from C4 music which kept saying “summer of freedom”. Setting perhaps an expectation for people which will be hard to return from if there is a lockdown later
 
I'm thinking that Covid cases are going to spike as a result of the Euros. Would a lockdown either in August or September actually be beneficial in ensuring that people will have a normal Christmas?

Blessing in disguise or nah?
 
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