Get well soon.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I hope you feel better soon man.
Get well soon, mate.
I'm about to fly to Majorca soon. The rate is 100 there 
I still do not need a test before the flight...
I still do not need a test before the flight...
After a run of fairly bleak posts, here’s a Twitter thread with some more up-beat content.
Nice.
I'm getting my first dose on Friday, so I'll say what I said all along. Open indoor dining for fully vaccinated people on the first week of August.
A fully vaccinated distant relative of mine has just been admitted to hospital in a bad way with Covid. The doctors say his chances are not good. He's late 80s and got Pfizer.
The rest of my family now see this as proof of two things, 1) the foreign vaccines are no good, and 2) they shouldn't be going out anywhere as vaccinated people can still die from it. They were already nervous about Boris's reopening plan and I'm running out of ways to convince them to go back outside.
The rest of my family now see this as proof of two things, 1) the foreign vaccines are no good, and 2) they shouldn't be going out anywhere as vaccinated people can still die from it. They were already nervous about Boris's reopening plan and I'm running out of ways to convince them to go back outside.
Need more info like vaccine name and your country. Duh, UK. By foreign vaccines do you mean Pfizer?
FFS I'm having a shit day. I'm not even going to delete this post.
Congrats on the jab date. That was quick! How long did you have to wait after registering? Or are you going to a pharmacist?
My daughter, who is 22, won’t get the vaccine as she’s worried about it affecting fertility. She says that there won’t have been enough testing or evidence to know that it doesn’t. She also thinks that at her age the risk of having the vaccine (including the risk above but other risks as well) probably outweighs the benefits, but that the government will push the vaccine on people her age for herd immunity reasons.
No registration, no pharmacist. Let's just say my family knows people and leave it at that.
And no, we are not the Healy-Raes!
That article he's using contains what looks like a very good summary of what the UK is doing, and the kind of outcome the government is planning around. 100k cases/day, 2k/day hospital admissions, 100 people/day deaths.
The underlying theory is that we're heading for herd immunity and we've a choice of now or in the winter. If it's now, schools and colleges will start to operate more or less as normal in the autumn and the NHS won't collapse.
The unspoken element is that basically the old and immune compromised (vaxxed or not) should be advised to stay home for the next couple of months, and their kids/grandkids should go back to meeting them outside, at a distance. It's not going to be a good time for multi-generation family holidays etc.
Well, my fiance's sister-in-law ,who has been vaccinated for a while now, is pregnant and just past the 12 week phase (got pregnant in-between jabs).
There is no evidence to back up your daughter's fears (understandable though), and despite being anecdotal/one case, I hope this allays some of the concern.
Firstly, sorry to hear about your relative, distant or not. And unfortunately, they are just another statistic. One of the up to 100,000 per day predicted new infections which Boris and his health secretary believe is perfectly acceptable as they try to convince us that it is ok to remove the covid restrictions.
I still don’t understand the logic. If they’re so worried about a return to schools in September why not spend the rest of the summer vaccinating 12-18 year olds?
Herd immunity via “letting it rip” was always a hugely risky concept. Taking that approach when vaccines are available is straight up negligent. And that’s not even getting into the potential consequences of a huge surge in a partially vaccinated population putting selective pressure on the virus to mutate into vaccine resistant strains.
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Ask her if there’s any testing or evidence to know for certain that being infected with covid won’t affect fertility.
Well, they already know that it doesn't affect fertility (plenty of new pregnancies among the vaxxed) We've now also had the first few (full term healthy) babies born from people who became pregnant just before/or soon after their jabs on the clinical trials (despite the trial instructions not to!)
For those who support the idea of trying to get to herd immunity then how can it take be achieved without letting it spread in a hopefully largely vaccinated population?
By turning a largely vaccinated population into a fully vaccinated population. We use herd immunity via vaccination to suppress diseases like measles. We could achieve the same aim by allowing measles to spread and kill thousands of people. But we don’t because that would be madness.
My guess, there's not enough mRNA to double vax them all in July/August. They will probably do to 16/17 year olds though, plus younger ones in households with someone who is immune compromised or at similar risk.
I think there's also a genuine hesitation from the JCVI on whether there's sufficient health advantage to the kids themselves. It's straightforward enough in terms of the herd immunity equation and things like avoiding time off school of course.
As for the mutation breeding ground issue - the theory is that we're no more likely to produce more by letting people get infected simultaneously rather than having the infections spread out into the winter. Plus, there are plenty of other cases outside the UK to mutate.
I'm not saying it's a pretty model or the best one, just that there are rational (but high risk) underpinnings for it.
Personally I think the tough bit is someone has to be honest/direct enough to warn the old/vulnerable (including those who've really enjoyed being able to go out shopping and to pubs, or meeting up with family this past couple of months) that now's a good time to stay home. Even if the vaccination makes them feel safe.
Why would they stay at home? If they predict 100 deaths per day that is less than influenza on average (over 10k in less than 100 days). Or do you expect them to stay at home every year from Nov to Feb from now on?
Why on earth would it affect fertility?
I understand why someone would have that concern in a hypothetical sense to any jab/medication they may have to take, although there is zero evidence to support it in this case.
That's a fair comment. Though there are a couple of "yes, but" moments in the equation.
We don't know if the combination of vaccines and self regulated cautious behaviour will keep it out of the over 70s group for another couple of months. If either of those barriers breaks down the hospitalisation and death rates could shoot up further. Far above the 2000/day admissions and 100/day deaths. If the over 70s get more cautious the deaths won't get that high. The modelling is right on a knife edge - which is why I think other countries/scientists will watch with a kind of horrified fascination.
On the broader picture - get used to it, it's going to be like flu - I agree. What we don't know yet is how that will impact hospitalisations/deaths in the next few years - do they add together, or is it the same group who get one or the other.
Sure. But the doubling times are long enough that nothing drastic will happen quickly. If there will be a need for messaging, it can be done in 5-10 weeks time.
Whilst that is true and i agree with it, it's not proven yet. Here you are asked if you are pregnant or planning to become pregnant, and if you say yes they cannot give you the vaccine.
Maybe, but the majority of cases are in the unvaccinated under 25s and the trend lines and modelling calculations for hospital admissions and deaths are based on what are effectively assumptions about them staying there.
However that relies on maintaining the current mixing pattern that is showing a lot of homogeneity in socialising and less socialising across generations than "normal". That's actually assisted by some of the mitigations currently in place (like table service in bars/restaurants) and social distancing in theatres etc. With what's effectively the removal of most mitigations the dynamics change. Without venue check-in some of the early warnings that led people to temporarily quarantine following contact will disappear, and more people will uninstall the covid app to avoid warnings - because they become too common as case rates rise and places get more crowded.
The case doubling times are currently somewhere between 10-14 days, but with very big variations between different parts of the country that make the make the modelling very unstable, and make local risks very unpredictable.
Personally my guess is that the 70+ oldies will take the hint and avoid crowds (and family) but that it will hit the unvaccinated but over-confident 40+ groups. If that's true the hospitalisations could rise faster but the deaths won't rise as fast. Will there be enough time for people to see it coming? I don't know, and I don't think anyone knows, that's why it's all about the ifs.
That’s not because of a potential effect on fertility, it’s because of a potential effect on an unborn foetus. Standard advice for all new medicines until they’ve generated a few year’s safety data.
I think if you’re actively trying to get pregnant it’s a tough call. Probably better to postpone the pregnancy than postpone the vaccine but individuals will have different opinions on this. Postponing the vaccine because you’re worried about a permanent effect on fertility doesn’t make sense and is definitely fuelled by lies spread on social media.
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I think we’ll see a lot of people deleting the NHS app and not getting tested with these new rules. It will only be the really ill and the rest will carry on regardless like the good old days with the flu.
Agreed, especially as you can seemingly get pinged from the most minimal interaction with a positive case. My fiance received a notification from last Friday - she had been to work, travelled on the tube, been in a couple of shops for a few minutes and that was it. No checking in anywhere, no going out to bars/pubs/restaurants.
If that's all it takes, then the hospitality sector will be on its knees in weeks, and simply going to work via public transport will be a risk.
Also, after the 19th , when kids break up from school and holidays have been booked in the UK no one will be getting tested if they feel a bit unwell.
Yep, I think the covid app is done for now, and them dropping its use for venue check-in will kill it off completely.
Case rates will plummet. No test, no case
Some positive herd immunity-related content from the ONS.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...rveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/latest
Nearly everyone over 50 tested positive for antibodies 3 weeks ago, either vaccine or infection related, and 90% of adults overall. Big drop off from 35 downward, as those groups have only been getting jabbed recently. Interesting that the 16-25 y/o were at around 20% pre-vaccine, which should help make up for lower vaccine take-up in that group.
The big unknown is the pool of under-16s, since they're not in the survey. They're not vaccinated at them moment, so will have lower levels of immunity. Although if you believe Indie Sage, schools are swimming in Covid, so they'll have generated some antibodies that way.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...rveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/latest
Nearly everyone over 50 tested positive for antibodies 3 weeks ago, either vaccine or infection related, and 90% of adults overall. Big drop off from 35 downward, as those groups have only been getting jabbed recently. Interesting that the 16-25 y/o were at around 20% pre-vaccine, which should help make up for lower vaccine take-up in that group.
The big unknown is the pool of under-16s, since they're not in the survey. They're not vaccinated at them moment, so will have lower levels of immunity. Although if you believe Indie Sage, schools are swimming in Covid, so they'll have generated some antibodies that way.
Ahhh good Donald Trump rises again this time in the U.K.Case rates will plummet. No test, no case
If you take a guess at infection generated antibodies in U16s as being similar to the other members of their family, it would be around 20%. Just doing a quick test on the numbers, that would suggest an overall population level of antibodies somewhere around 77% (75% if it's 10%, 78% if it's 25%)
If the modellers were right that would have been pretty close to herd immunity for Alpha (assuming current vaccine efficacy maintained), just another million or so vaccinated people and we'd have got there. Unfortunately Delta seems to have lifted the bar again. Case rates will start falling though as the virus runs out of people to infect, just not yet.
Can someone explain to me like Im 5 how herd immunity works with a mutating virus and a vaccine that loses effectiveness over 6 months?
It's just as likely to make you super fertile as it is to make you infertile..... Also just as likely to make you grow a second head.