You need to lay off the drugs.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
You need to lay off the drugs.
Every secondary school child and the families of every primary or secondary school child have been asked to take lateral flow tests twice a week. The secondary kids have been doing them in school this week.
EDIT: also to add, the Zoe app, which has been a reasonably good model on a nationwide level, doesn't show any increase in people experiencing symptoms. https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
Are all schools testing? I know my daughter had one last friday before reopening on monday and another tuesday?
That’s interesting. Thanks. So we can (hopefully!) expect cases to go up but positivity rate to go down.
School kids are getting tested twice a week I think.
Yeah, fair enough, but I still think 6000 a day (which sounds low compared to the peak of the past few months, but is about the same as it was in September when people were talking about a second lockdown) and a plateauing is a huge concern given that we're not going to see the effect of re-opening for a few weeks followed by more mixing as other restrictions are relaxed.
On the other hand, we're still very locked down compared to September (more similar to the "circuit breaker" in November, when cases dropped while schools stayed open), we're carrying out around 4 times as many tests, so are more likely to catch outbreaks early, one third of the population has been vaccinated, and there's increasing evidence that the vaccines reduce transmission as well as disease.
This is based on the data up to 3rd March, so it will have dropped even further this week.
Which are the key and crucial points of difference, but it's too much eggs in one basket for me. I hope your optimism is well placed, but I am worried about how stubborn the last 6000 or so cases are proving to be given there's some pretty horrible mutations out there.
What's happening in Brazil? Why is it so bad there? Surely they don't have the demographic issues that Europe and the US do? (Aging population etc)
Why is it so bad? Their president, Jair Bolsonaro, is downplaying the impact of the virus. Refusing to shut society as the collateral damage to the economy will be worse than the effects of the virus itself.
Ironically, similar to the line that @Ronaldo's Mum Eh? is rolling out in this thread currently. The results suggest it's not the way to progress.
Or they are just extremely selfish as they're very unlikely to need medical care (for Covid or any other disease/illness) due to their age.
Apart from the neglect and terrible handling from the government, there is a new mutation that some scientists there are warning the world about : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1
It seems to be more infectious, generate more viral load and also the vaccines propably will be less efficient against it. maybe also very so. Studies also estimate it to be 10-80% more deadly and it siginficantly neutralizes antibodies from previous infections.
To me it seems like we might need new vaccines if this gets spread around the globe, but more study will tell.
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Emergency approval doesn't imply a lack of safety testing. It just gets it to people faster when there is an emergency. Full approval will follow. Many countries who had less urgency have given full approval to one or more of the vaccines. I'm not sure why you would worry about animal testing, which if used at all would be in the very early stages of vaccine development. If phase 3 human trials are successful that is where safety if truly assessed.
Of course you can. If the diseases that exist in patches e.g. Yellow Fever, were more widespread then all countries would demand the vaccination. And many places such as Unis in the US and childcare and schools in many many countries demand that your kids are immunised to attend/enroll. It is no more an imposition or restriction of your freedom to encourage your citizens to vaccinate for the benefit of yourself and everyone else than it is to demand that you wear a seat belt or pay your taxes. In fact less so as it won't be compulsory.
Of course it is a choice. You just may not like what goes along with the alternatives but it is still a choice.
Fauci was being cautious as I would have been if in a position of power/authority. Many experts including Peter Doherty who knows more about these things than almost everyone else were far more confident and funnily enough they were correct.
No there isn't. Worrying about your notional freedom to endanger your own and other people's lives in a global pandemic, with millions dead and most economies hugely damaged is very odd. Hugely selfish and self-centered.
We know lots about it and mRNA vaccines started to be developed in the late 80's and there have been approved animal mRNA vaccines for many years. The reason these are the first mRNA vaccine for human use is precisely because safety has been taken so serious. Because they produce such a good immune response side effects (inconvenient ones like feeling like you have a bad cold, rather than actually dangerous ones) were initially quite severe and it has taken many years of work to reduce these and now we were at a point where we can use them on humans.
WTF are you on about? If you exclude the people it kills it doesn't kill many people? That makes no sense.
If covid wasn't so dangerous why would the entire world be taking it so seriously? Shits and giggles?
Utter bollocks. Lockdowns when done well are a great tool and allow you to open up. Look at Taiwan, NZ and Australia. people are getting their normal health checks, the economy has taken a much smaller hit than elsewhere and most of us are living an almost normal life. When the response has been incompetent like in the UK and US (and elsewhere) lockdowns have still been important because it would have been even worse without them. Hospital systems would have been utterly overwhelmed and the fatality rate would have skyrocketed even further.
This is not because of lockdowns. It is because of a) a pandemic and b) an incompetent response to that pandemic. And the best way out is vaccinate everyone as fast as possible. It makes no sense to bemoan the consequences of the pandemic and also moan about being encouraged to participate in the solution.
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Just to pick this up, the data for England helpfully has started to break down cases by type of test.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
If you just look at only PCR tests, the numbers continue to fall week on week. The last few days the number of LFT positives has increased from around 400 a day last week (before the mass schools testing) to around 1000 a day this week, and accounts for all of the apparent rise in cases. Also worth noting that the vast majority of these recent cases have not been confirmed by a follow-up PCR test so far.
This is essentially a good thing - we're finding a lot more of those potential asymptomatic cases early and isolating them, which should help to keep numbers dropping. It will almost certainly grab headlines about schools having to isolate classes and year groups. But at the moment the data doesn't suggest there is a plateauing or rise in like-for-like cases.
Is there a stat giving up to date info for number of LFT tests per day?
I think the false positive rate on those tests was reckoned to be around 1:1000 - we may be heading into the territory where that is becoming statistically significant. I'm particularly thinking of big schools where there are likely to be a bunch of false positives every weeks.
Better than missed cases but maybe there's some way of prioritising the PCR test kit so a kid can have one delivered the same day they get a +ve LFT result or something.
I don't know all the numbers line up exactly, but the moving average of PCR tests is around 280k, while the last 3 days have reported around 1.3-1.5 million tests total, so you're probably looking at around a million LFT tests each day. The false positive rate is a subject of debate - I think the manufacturers pinned it at around 0.3%, but someone from PHE said it was less than 0.1% in the real world. So you might expect around a thousand false positives a day if those numbers are right, but equally it might be a lot less than that.
EDIT: BBC news have a piece on it. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56349116
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@Pogue Mahone what do you make of cases increasing? Surely to so with schools reopening? I mean where the hell do we go from here now if a level 5 with open schools isn't lowering cases anymore?
7 day rolling average is what matters. Let’s not forget that Monday’s numbers (a week after youngest half of primary school + sixth year kids all went back to school) were the lowest in 2021. Plus the positivity rate has continued to fall.
However, if the last couple of days numbers is more than a blip then we’re in for some tough decisions in the next few weeks. Especially with all the rest of primary school plus fifth-year coming back on Monday.
I honestly don’t know where we go from here if cases kick off again. This variant is an absolute cnut to suppress. I’m clinging to the fact that I remember thinking we were stuck at 2000, then 1000 and now 500. With multiple blips along the way. The progress is happening. It’s just painfully slow.
It's a good story -good knows who they've dug out their whatsapp messages- but it's like with any damning story about this government's cronyism, you feel the wider public don't really care and nothing will ever come of it. This apathy is probably part of the problem I guess.
Yeah I don't know. I just remember how fecked things got in December after we dropped to level 3 with there still being 300 cases a day. You'd hope that with better weather, people being vaccinated and also .. not having Christmas that opening up wouldn't have the same effect again.
Feels like we were at the perfect level of cases and "freedom" last summer, if we did get to that stage again this summer I think pretty much everyone would be happy enough knowing that the vaccines were coming and later in the year with most adults vaccinated travel abroad could become a possibility again but it really doesn't seem likely right now. Painful stuff.
100%.
The problem is we hit that level based on a much less contagious version of the virus (and better compliance with lockdown). I think we’re going to have to settle for a higher daily cases to reopen this time and hope/pray that good weather helps keep a lid on things while we crack on with getting everyone vaccinated. We’re already at a stage where the next surge should have a much lower death toll after vaccinating the elderly.
Hoping/praying for good weather in Ireland. What could possibly go wrong?!
Heh, I feel like the good weather thing is a catch 22 at times as well though. I mean it's surely no coincidence that after last weekend when the weather was really nice for the first time this year and everyone crammed into the parks that we are now seeing cases go up, yet obviously good weather is beneficial towards stopping the spread of the virus.
That's part of why I think level 5 just can't continue much longer. If the weather does get good people will get even more fed up and do what they want anyway, we're already seeing it and it will only get worse. We have to let people travel past 5k and dine outside by May I think, or else it will be a total shitshow.
But hey, at least the travelers can have their massive funerals up in Leitrim without the media batting an eyelid, so that's good!
Seeing as we both know about that from reading about it in the media, that’s a little harsh. It is annoying though. Must be a nightmare for everyone living there. You can bet your arse they won’t be holding back at the wakes either.
You mean like the journal who didn't even mention that it was travelers and blocked comments? Rte don't even have an article about it!
https://www.thejournal.ie/carrick-funeral-investigation-5379002-Mar2021/
Anyway, I suppose it's not the thread for it but it is infuriating when they get such special treatment after the media and government scolding anyone else who dares to gather in a park or whatnot.
I read about it in the Irish Times.
The Journal’s a bit weird. Especially the comments section. Full of VERY. ANGRY. PEOPLE.
Everybody has had enough of the government changing the rules and not learning. We are back where we were last February and everybody i know has stopped paying attention to what the rules are at any given time, they just be as careful as they can reasonably be. My province apparently holds the record so far, 16 colour changes since November.
Authorities are scared of travellers.
It's weird because I see tons of polizia patrolling the city but feck knows what they are looking for. I hear people out after curfew all the time and nobody really seems to give a feck anymore.
Coffee, usually.
I think they've mostly had enough of persecuting citizens for breaking rules that change so frequently.
I know, we don't have anything like that here of course but it's bad in other parts of the province. They need to get these vaccinations sorted out, it's painfully slow. Marche's still doing the over-80s, who aren't of course the ones who go out socialising at night!
Yeah I think that's a given. It's mad that our state broadcaster doesn't even have an article about that funeral and yet were happily bashing those Limerick students and the Graftan St protestors for days (not saying they weren't right to to that, but serious double standards).
Why would it even be a half joke?
All the alcohol was roped off in Conad today. No sales of booze after 4pm Fri to Monday.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56377252
maybe some jail time would help her grow up, the 2 sniggering as well
maybe some jail time would help her grow up, the 2 sniggering as well
Why? We could lend Peter Dutton to you. He would have them in a third world gulag before you could say refugee
I hope they do get jail time. Coughing on someone during a pandemic is bad enough but pepper spraying him through a window after they have got out of the vehicle is next level cnutish. And a crime
