SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Just 725 patients admitted today, not been that low since early October.
 
horsechoker said:
What do you think about the increase in cases in Italy?
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To be expected. I am in one of the major Italian tourist regions and every weekend it's been heaving as people come here from Milan and other neighbouring cities for a day out.

At least this time the government is closing things down sooner than they did in the last wave, and pretty much all HCWs/care home residents are fully vaccinated now so hospitals wont be under as much strain.
 
golden_blunder said:
What a load of bollox
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Is obviously wrong but did the public know that much about the benefits of/need for masks on March 4? I don't remember feeling that was the case.

Edit - Just went back through the thread and Elvz posted a tweet on March 4 saying we'd had a recorded 85 in total cases. How crazy does that seem now?!
 
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11101 said:
To be expected. I am in one of the major Italian tourist regions and every weekend it's been heaving as people come here from Milan and other neighbouring cities for a day out.

At least this time the government is closing things down sooner than they did in the last wave, and pretty much all HCWs/care home residents are fully vaccinated now so hospitals wont be under as much strain.
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Keep them in the north, please. We've already had an influx of weekend motorcycling groups and cycling clubs, all standing outside our bar drinking coffee and not wearing masks while they shout to each other.

It makes me irrationally angry. :lol:
 
Back to school for covid. Just a cautionary note for the next few weeks.



It's worth looking at the whole thread, interesting info from around the world.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Side note. Makes you wonder if vaccine schedule should change? Adults with kids vaccinated before adults without kids?

Based on that data seems like a no-brainer. Would be an incredibly unpopular decision though!
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For that to be necessary I would have expected to see a higher than average rate of covid hospitalisation or death in teachers and child care workers, but I'm not sure anyone has shown that to be the case, as it is with high risk groups like factory, care home, transport and retail workers?

Maybe bumping overweight people up the priority list would actually save more lives?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Side note. Makes you wonder if vaccine schedule should change? Adults with kids vaccinated before adults without kids?

Based on that data seems like a no-brainer. Would be an incredibly unpopular decision though!
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The issue for the UK is that we've got a lot of those kind of disproportionate impact things. Occupational ones like taxi drivers etc; poverty; social ones like multigenerational living. We know enough to see it, but not enough to see if it really does more to bring down the death/hospitalisation toll than the current age/medical risk ones.

Once we get to the under 50s, I suspect there will be more arguments. Personally I think we're likely to see some postcode targeted scheduling, but I don't know about what else they'll do. The good thing about the current UK system is that it "sounds fair" and it's relatively straightforward to administer.

Anything new would throw up new anomalies - yes, mum and dad are covered, but what about 45 year old granny who picks them up from school etc etc. If everyone's a priority, no one is - let's hope the vaccines keep working and the suppliers keep delivering (in steadily increasing quantity)
 
711 said:
For that to be necessary I would have expected to see a higher than average rate of covid hospitalisation or death in teachers and child care workers, but I'm not sure anyone has shown that to be the case, as it is with high risk groups like factory, care home, transport and retail workers?

Maybe bumping overweight people up the priority list would actually save more lives?
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Overweight people are being bumped up though. They’re already considering high risk.

Re teachers vs other jobs, I wonder if that’s because this new Uk variant is a bigger issue with kids than the previous ones? Schools have been basically closed since before Christmas, so teachers haven’t been at risk. Unlike Danish parents, evidently.
 
jojojo said:
The issue for the UK is that we've got a lot of those kind of disproportionate impact things. Occupational ones like taxi drivers etc. Social ones like multigenerational living. We know enough to see it, but not enough to see if it really does more to bring down the death/hospitalisation toll than the current age/medical risk ones.

Once we get to the under 50s, I suspect there will be more arguments. Personally I think we're likely to see some postcode targeted scheduling, but I don't know about what else they'll do. The good thing about the current UK system is that it "sounds fair" and it's relatively straightforward to administer.

Anything new would throw up new anomalies - yes, mum and dad are covered, but what about 45 year old granny who picks them up from school etc etc. If everyone's a priority, no one is - let's hope the vaccines keep working and the suppliers keep delivering (in steadily increasing quantity)
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No system will be perfect. For me the Uk approach gets one piece wrong, which is not prioritising the young ahead of the young middle-aged. Looking at the age profile of cases and large outbreaks it arguably makes more sense to vaccinate 40 year olds after 20 year olds, for example.

With occupational prioritising it gets very messy but if this Danish data is to be believed (and I haven’t read it in detail, just the headlines) then if your occupation is “parent” that puts your risk ahead of all others.
 


FFS. I wish I hadn’t discovered this guy’s twitter feed now.

Anyhoo. This P1 variant is the final nail in the coffin of the Swedish herd immunity strategy. Looks as though Brazil is having to go through the first wave all over again, with prior infection giving little protection against the new variant. Grim.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Side note. Makes you wonder if vaccine schedule should change? Adults with kids vaccinated before adults without kids?

Based on that data seems like a no-brainer. Would be an incredibly unpopular decision though!
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Get fecked with that!

Also makes no sense from an economic perspective as adults without kids are likely to take far more holidays and trips once they can.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Also makes no sense from an economic perspective as adults without kids are likely to take far more holidays and trips once they can.
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Serious?

My trips pre-kid were plenty, but cheap as feck. For a start you'd never go during school holidays when prices are beyond belief, post kid and your few hundred quid holiday suddenly turns into thousands.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Side note. Makes you wonder if vaccine schedule should change? Adults with kids vaccinated before adults without kids?

Based on that data seems like a no-brainer. Would be an incredibly unpopular decision though!
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Everyone will be vaccinated by mid-late June anyway (In the U.K.) - by the time we managed to get the data to even do that which would be incredibly difficult - there’s no link between NHS number and how many kids you have - it’ll all be over. That’s why they decided to stick with age and not job role or any other permutation - it’s far easier and quicker.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Overweight people are being bumped up though. They’re already considering high risk.

Re teachers vs other jobs, I wonder if that’s because this new Uk variant is a bigger issue with kids than the previous ones? Schools have been basically closed since before Christmas, so teachers haven’t been at risk. Unlike Danish parents, evidently.
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Ah right. The virus might be running faster than the data, as ever. We'll know more some time after re-opening of course.
 
Mickeza said:
Everyone will be vaccinated by mid-late June anyway (In the U.K.) - by the time we managed to get the data to even do that which would be incredibly difficult - there’s no link between NHS number and how many kids you have - it’ll all be over. That’s why they decided to stick with age and not job role or any other permutation - it’s far easier and quicker.
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Fair enough. Mass simultaneous school opening will test that strategy but c’est la vie. Be something for the UK to think about for boosters/new variant vaccines anyway. To get a list of parents you could presumably approach the schools. For the rest of us, something to think about right now.
 
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Pogue Mahone said:
You think? Go to an average holiday resort during school holidays and again during term. You’ll see how big a driver families are of tourism.
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Right but that's at limited parts of the year. Couples and young people without kids can go at any time of the year, plus by the time we get regular adults vaccinated summer will be over anyway! Absolutely no chance people with kids are bigger drivers of tourism than people without. Then you have all the weddings that have been delayed, getting them back going would be absolutely huge for hotels.

Anyway it's a terrible idea. At least people with kids have their kids (for better or worse). What about adults who are stuck by themselves or shitty flatmates? Imagine telling them they have to wait to get vaccinated when they're probably already in an awful state of mind. Not everyone without kids is living with their other half happy out after all.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Serious?

My trips pre-kid were plenty, but cheap as feck. For a start you'd never go during school holidays when prices are beyond belief, post kid and your few hundred quid holiday suddenly turns into thousands.
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But again that's all very limited. When you've kids generally you're stuck going at certain times of year to certain resorts in certain areas. Here in Ireland we have loads of tourist towns that would benefit far more from people without kids being able to go, especially with a tourism culture that's so reliant on alcohol, pubs, hotel bars etc. Then you've all the stags, hens, weddings bla bla. There's no comparison. Plus people without kids are more likely to go back to the office instead of work remotely too given they've less commitments which means more money being spent in city centers again.

But you both have kids so I can see why you're trying to peddle this narrative ;)
 
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